• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제53권6호
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• pp.409-418
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• 2020

Objectives: This study conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of trends in healthy lifestyle behaviors in Japan. Methods: We used National Health and Nutrition Survey data on salt intake and prevalence of smoking, drinking, and physical activity between 1995 and 2018 in Japan. Age groups were defined from 20 years to 69 years old in 10-year increments. Cohorts were defined for each age group of each year with a 1-year shift, and cohorts born in 1926-1935 (first cohort) until 1989-1998 (last cohort) were examined. We conducted a Bayesian APC analysis, calculating estimated values for each behavior by age group, period, and cohort. Results: Estimated salt intake decreased from cohorts born in the 1930s to the 1960s, but increased thereafter in both genders, and the magnitude of increase was larger for men. Estimated smoking prevalence increased in the cohorts starting from the 1930s for men and the 1940s for women, and then decreased starting in the cohorts born in the 1970s for both genders. Although estimated drinking prevalence decreased starting in the cohorts born in approximately 1960 for men, for women it increased until the cohorts born in approximately 1970. Estimated physical activity prevalence decreased starting in the cohorts born in the 1940s in both genders, but the magnitude of decrease was larger for women. Conclusions: Trends in cohort effects differed by gender, which might be related to changes in the social environment for women. Improvements in dietary and exercise habits are required in more recently born cohorts of both genders.

• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제2권4호
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• pp.26-47
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• 2014

The paper examined effect of age cohort on life cycle financial planning. A total of 990 questionnaires were distributed with a 55.2% return rate. Seven hypotheses were analysed using hierarchical and ordinary regression analysis. The results revealed that age cohort variables made significant contribution to life cycle financial planning as well as personal orientation towards retirement planning, particularly the younger age cohort. Age cohorts do affect personal orientation towards retirement planning with the confidence level making a significant impact. Current financial resources do have a strong positive impact on consumption for all age cohorts. On the other hand, no significant effect was found between age cohorts and current financial resources but older age cohorts were relatively more significant predictors. The implication was that not only should their individual perceptions of financial planning become an increasingly important part of people's long-term commitment throughout their life-cycle, it must also assume the role as a self-directed life-long learning process, in view of the ever-changing and complicated financial environment.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제53권3호
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• pp.198-204
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• 2020

Objectives: This study aimed to analyze the mortality of heart disease (HD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) through an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: We used data on mortality due to cardiovascular disease from 1995 to 2018 in Japan, as determined by Vital Statistics. Age groups from 0 years to 99 years were defined by 5-year increments, and cohorts were defined for each age group of each year with a 1-year shift. We used Bayesian APC analysis to decompose the changes in the diseases' mortality rates into age, period, and cohort effects. Results: The period effects for all diseases decreased during the analyzed periods for both men and women. The cohort effects for men increased substantially in cohorts born from around 1940 to the 1970s for all types of cardiovascular diseases. The cohort effects of HD decreased in the cohorts born in the 1970s or later for both men and women. Regarding IHD and CeVD, either a non-increase or decrease of cohort effects was confirmed for cohorts born in the 1970s or later for men, but the effects for women showed a continuously increasing trend in the cohorts born in the 1960s or later. Conclusions: The cohort effects for IHD and CeVD showed increasing trends in younger generations of women. This suggests that preventive approaches against cardiovascular diseases are needed, particularly for women.

• 한국인구학
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.1-23
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• 2009

본 논문에서는 설문조사자료를 이용하여 1940년대 이후 출생한 우리나라 여성들의 연령별 출산율, 연령별 누적출산율, 결혼연령을 5개의 출생코호트별로 살펴보고 위험도 모형을 이용하여 결혼연령 및 결혼 이후 초산까지의 간격에 영향을 미치는 요인을 각각 분석하였다. 먼저 연령별 출산율을 보면 출생시기가 늦은 코호트일수록 출산율이 최고수준에 이르는 연령이 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 연령별 누적출산율은 50년대 코호트와 60년대 코호트의 경우 각각 직전 코호트에 비해 누적출산율이 크게 하락하였으나 70년대 코호트나 80년대 코호트는 60년대 코호트에 비해 누적출산율에 있어서 별다른 차이를 보이지 않았다. 결혼연령을 보면 최근의 출생코호트로 올수록 결혼연령이 높아졌다. 한편, 결혼 위험도 모형을 추정한 결과에 의하면 여성의 출생시기가 늦을수록 그리고 교육수준이 높을수록 결혼연령이 높아지는 것으로 나타났으며 특히 출생시기의 영향은 그간 진행된 여성의 취업기회의 확대와 여성의 상대적 지위의 향상 등 경제적 및 사회문화적 변화를 종합적으로 반영하는 것으로 해석된다. 다음으로 결혼 이후 첫 자녀의 출산 위험도의 경우에는 출생시기나 결혼시기 모두 유의한 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 분석되었다. 한편, 결혼 이후에도 상당기간 취업상태를 유지한 여성의 경우 출산 위험도가 크게 낮았으며 또한 중졸 이하 학력을 가진 여성은 여타 수준의 학력을 가진 여성에 비해 출산 위험도가 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 이는 여성의 취업이나 낮은 가구소득이 출산율을 낮추는 중요한 요인임을 의미하는 것으로 중요한 정책적 시사점을 가진다.

• 국제지역연구
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.309-330
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• 2010

이 논문은 동아시아정체성에 영향을 미치는 연령 및 세대코호트(cohort)효과에 대해 분석한다. 또한 이 논문은 동아시아 지역정체성이 한국인이라는 국가정체성(national identity)의 정도와 어떠한 방식으로 연관되는가를 분석한다. 2008년 시카고국제문제협의회-동아시아연구원에서 실시한 한국인 여론조사 데이터에 대한 분석은 다음과 같은 흥미로운 경험적 발견을 제시한다. 연령이 높을수록 동아시아정체성의 정도가 더 강하게 나타나며, 국가정체성이 강할수록 강한 동아시아정체성을 지니는 경향이 있다. 이러한 경험적 발견은 서구를 대상으로 한 기존연구들의 발견과는 다른 패턴을 보이는 것이다. 첫째, 한국의 경우 젊은 층이 아니라 경제적 자원이 어느 정도 있는 연령층이 더 초국가정체성을 지닌다. 둘째, 일반적인 동북아공동체에 관한 연구의 논의와 다르게, 이 연구는 강한 국가정체성이 동아시아 지역정체성과 상보적(complementary)이라는 점을 제시한다. 이 연구는 동아시아지역통합의 이론적, 정책적 모색과 동아시아 지역 내 강한 민족주의의 관계에 대한 새로운 미시적 기초를 밝혀준다.

• 한국인구학
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.97-116
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• 1988

This study examines the socioeconomic determinants of fertility behavior in Korea by developing a model which simultaneously takes into account both individual and community-level differences. It especially focuses on the micro-macro nexus of fertility behavior depending on social contexts. This study utilizes micro data obtained from the 1974 Korean National Fertility Survey(KNFS), and macro data obtained from Korean government statistics. The framework of the model is formalized as a set of structural equations modelling the fertility process. The model is formed on a cohort-specific processual basis and is restricted to five-year birth cohorts. Three cohorts of women are studied : those aged 30-34, 35-39, and 40-44. The model includes three fertility-process components : age at first birth, early fertility, and later fertility, which are defined by reference to the age of the mother. The results of this study indicate that socioeconomic development in Korea results in increased age at first birth and reduced numbers of children per couple. In addition to the developmental change, Korea's fertility decline is found to be facilitated by family planning programs. As expected, the effect of family planning on fertility is greater among better-educated women than among poorly educated women. The inconsistent but suggestive result, however, is that the effect of socioeconomic development on fertility is greater among less-privileged women than among more-previleged women.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제13권5호
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• pp.449-467
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• 2004

Interannual and decadal scale changes in body size of Pacific saury, catch and catch per unit effort were examined to investigate the environmental effects on the stock structure and abundance in the Tsushima Warm Current region. Interannual changes in thermal conditions are responsible for the different occurrence (catch) rates of sized group of the fish. Changes in body size due to environmental variables lead the stock to be homogeneous during the period of high abundance, while one of the reminder cohorts supports the stock during the period of low level of abundance. Migration circuits of two cohorts of saury stock are hypothesized on the basis of short life span and spatio-temporal changes of the stock structure in normal environmental conditions. Changes in upper ocean structure and production cycles by the decadal scale climate changes lead changes in stock structure and recruitment, resulting in the fluctuation of saury abundance. Hypothesized mechanism of the effects of climate changes on stock structure and abundance is illustrated on the basis of changes in thermal regime and production cycle.

• 한국양식학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국양식학회 2004년도 수산관련학회 공동학술대회 발표요지집
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• pp.169-171
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• 2004

Interannual and decadal scale body size of Pacific saury, catch and catch per unit effort were examined to investigate the environmental effects on the stock structure and abundance in the Tsushima Warm Current region. Interannual changes in thermal conditions are responsible for the different occurrence (catch) rates of sized group of the fish. Changes in body size due to environmental variables lead the stock to be homogeneous during the period of high abundance, while one of the reminder cohorts supports the stock during the period of low level of abundance. Migration circuits of two cohorts of saury stock are hypothesized on the basis of short life span and spatio-temporal changes in stock structure in normal environmental conditions. Changes in upper ocean structure and production cycles by the decadal scale climate changes lead changes in stock structure and recruitment, resulting in the fluctuation of saury abundance. Hypothesized mechanism of the effects of climate changes on the stock structure and abundance is illustrated on the basis of changes in thermal regime and production cycle.

• 한국주거학회논문집
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.33-42
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• 1998

This study has been designed to analyze longterm trend of home-ownership probability over the family life cycle. In this study, 633 female household heads were interviewed on their critical life event such as pregnancy, birth or death of households, marriage, and residential movement between 1987 and 1990 in Oxaca, Mexico. The raw data composed of 100,000 lines were transformed into yearly segmented observation data, proposed by Allison. The results are drawn as follws: 1) There is significant effect of marriage cohort on residential mobility and home ownership: couples who married in 1960s are likely to change their residence at early stage of family life than those who married in 1940s. They also have lower probability of home ownership for 10 years after marriage than the other cohorts. 2) Over all the cohorts, it is consistent tendency that probability of home ownership continuously increases over the entire family life cycle for 40 years. 3) Of the logistic regression analysis of home ownership on household socioeconomic variables, the homeownership was positively related with age of marriage and time since marriage, and was negatively related with education of female head. Over in this study, it is proven that home owenership is ultimate goal of most families, and it is a function of family event variables.

• 한국사회정책
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.245-275
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• 2017

본 연구는 한국을 포함한 10개국을 대상으로 지난 20년간 복지태도의 변화를 추적하고, 그러한 변화에 세대효과가 작용하고 있는지, 세대효과를 다시 연령효과와 코호트 효과로 분리하였을 때 복지태도에 대한 코호트 효과가 있는지, 그리고 코호트 효과의 배경요인으로서 세대 간 가치관의 변화를 발견할 수 있는지를 살펴 복지태도의 동학에 대한 이해에 기여하고자 한다. 세계가치관조사의 데이터를 통해 분석해 본 결과, 대부분의 국가에서 지난 20년간 친복지의 태도가 강화되고 있고, 밀레니얼/Y세대는 이전 세대들보다 더 강력한 국가복지의 지지자가 될 가능성이 있으며, 이러한 세대효과는 연령효과보다는 코호트 효과에 기인함을 알 수 있었다. 코호트 효과의 배경으로서의 세대 간 가치관 차이는 일반적인 가정과는 달리 단절적이고 급격한 차이를 나타내는 세대는 없이, 과거 세대로부터 최근 세대로 이어지는 연속적인 양상으로 나타났다. 종합적으로 복지태도에 대한 코호트 효과는 적어도 가까운 미래까지는 국가복지의 강화 방향으로 작용할 것임을 예측할 수 있었다. 특이하게도 한국의 복지태도는 10개국 중 가장 높은 소득격차 선호와 가장 높은 정부 복지책임 확대 선호를 나타내는 모순성을 보여, 많은 연구들이 지적해 온 한국 복지태도의 비일관성과 비계급성을 확인시켜 주었다. 이러한 모순성은 특히 한국의 밀레니얼/Y세대에서 가장 극명하게 드러나는데, 이는 비교 대상 국가들에서는 찾아볼 수 없는 현상으로, 한편으로는 최소한의 안전장치도 없이 무한 경쟁에 내몰려왔던 우리 청년층이 경쟁과 차별을 내면화한 모습을 드러내었고, 다른 한편 향후에도 우리 복지태도가 복지 확대를 위한 우군으로 작용하기는 어려움을 보여주었다.