• Title/Summary/Keyword: closing stock

Search Result 55, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

Classification Algorithm-based Prediction Performance of Order Imbalance Information on Short-Term Stock Price (분류 알고리즘 기반 주문 불균형 정보의 단기 주가 예측 성과)

  • Kim, S.W.
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.28 no.4
    • /
    • pp.157-177
    • /
    • 2022
  • Investors are trading stocks by keeping a close watch on the order information submitted by domestic and foreign investors in real time through Limit Order Book information, so-called price current provided by securities firms. Will order information released in the Limit Order Book be useful in stock price prediction? This study analyzes whether it is significant as a predictor of future stock price up or down when order imbalances appear as investors' buying and selling orders are concentrated to one side during intra-day trading time. Using classification algorithms, this study improved the prediction accuracy of the order imbalance information on the short-term price up and down trend, that is the closing price up and down of the day. Day trading strategies are proposed using the predicted price trends of the classification algorithms and the trading performances are analyzed through empirical analysis. The 5-minute KOSPI200 Index Futures data were analyzed for 4,564 days from January 19, 2004 to June 30, 2022. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, order imbalance information has a significant impact on the current stock prices. Second, the order imbalance information observed in the early morning has a significant forecasting power on the price trends from the early morning to the market closing time. Third, the Support Vector Machines algorithm showed the highest prediction accuracy on the day's closing price trends using the order imbalance information at 54.1%. Fourth, the order imbalance information measured at an early time of day had higher prediction accuracy than the order imbalance information measured at a later time of day. Fifth, the trading performances of the day trading strategies using the prediction results of the classification algorithms on the price up and down trends were higher than that of the benchmark trading strategy. Sixth, except for the K-Nearest Neighbor algorithm, all investment performances using the classification algorithms showed average higher total profits than that of the benchmark strategy. Seventh, the trading performances using the predictive results of the Logical Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and XGBoost algorithms showed higher results than the benchmark strategy in the Sharpe Ratio, which evaluates both profitability and risk. This study has an academic difference from existing studies in that it documented the economic value of the total buy & sell order volume information among the Limit Order Book information. The empirical results of this study are also valuable to the market participants from a trading perspective. In future studies, it is necessary to improve the performance of the trading strategy using more accurate price prediction results by expanding to deep learning models which are actively being studied for predicting stock prices recently.

The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.25 no.3
    • /
    • pp.239-251
    • /
    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

A Study on Accounting Information and Stock Price of IoT-related Companies after COVID-19 (코로나-19 이후 IoT 관련 기업의 회계정보와 주가에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sangho;Cho, Kwangmoon
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
    • /
    • v.8 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-10
    • /
    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to establish a foundation for IoT-related industries to secure financial soundness and to dominate the global market after COVID-19. Through this study, the quantitative management status of IoT-related companies was checked. It also was attempted to preemptively prepare for corporate insolvency by examining the relationship between financial ratios in accordance with stock price fluctuations and designation of management items. This study selected 502 companies that were listed on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ in the stock market from 2019 to 2020. For statistical analysis, multiple regression analysis, difference analysis and logistic regression analysis were performed. The research results are as follows. First, it was found that the impact of IoT company accounting information on stock prices differs depending on before and after COVID-19. Second, it was found that there is a difference in the closing stock prices of IoT companies before and after COVID-19. Third, it was found that financial ratios according to stock price fluctuations exist differently after COVID-19. Fourth, it was found that the financial ratios according to the designation of management items after COVID-19 exist differently. Through these studies, some suggestions were made to secure the financial soundness of IoT companies and to lay the groundwork for leaping into the global market after COVID-19. Through the results of this study, it is expected that it will lead the growth of IoT companies and contribute to growth as a decacorn company of the future that can guarantee financial soundness in the changing financial market.

Development of Multi LED type Door Status Indication Lamp for rolling stock (Multi LED를 이용한 철도차량용 Door Status Indication Lamp)

  • Seo, Bum-Won;Choi, Jae-Sung;Kim, Dong-Il
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
    • /
    • 2011.05a
    • /
    • pp.1668-1674
    • /
    • 2011
  • Door Inside Lamp of railway rolling stock is installed on interior of the side doors and illuminated at door opening and closing, isolation and fault. So drivers or passengers can notice the door status visually. In the past, a single color or Bi-color LED Lamps have been using and one ~ multiple lamp was used to implement the feature according to client's requirements. (Example: Total of between 2 and 4 lamps are required for the Warning / Emergency operation / Isolation / Fault.) However these design is not easy to apply if there is the mounting space restrictions and the problems such as rising costs can be caused. In addition, it has vulnerability from point of view aesthetic aspects. Therefore the lamp type has been required that has small size and number of colors in order to resolve these problems. Recently multi LED type door status indication lamp have been developed that can meet the requirements and this lamp has been applied in many railway projects. In this study, I'll introduce the general characteristics and mechanical & electrical characteristics of multi LED type door status indication lamp to help development of this kinds of lamp.

  • PDF

Development of Multi LED type Door Status Indication Lamp for rolling stock (Multi LED를 이용한 철도차량용 Door Status Indication Lamp)

  • Seo, Bum-Won;Choi, Jae-Sung;Kim, Dong-Il
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
    • /
    • 2011.05a
    • /
    • pp.1466-1472
    • /
    • 2011
  • Door Inside Lamp of railway rolling stock is installed on interior of the side doors and illuminated at door opening and closing, isolation and fault. So drivers or passengers can notice the door status visually. In the past, a single color or Bi-color LED Lamps have been using and one ~ multiple lamp was used to implement the feature according to client's requirements. (Example: Total of between 2 and 4 lamps are required for the Warning / Emergency operation / Isolation / Fault.) However these design is not easy to apply if there is the mounting space restrictions and the problems such as rising costs can be caused. In addition, it has vulnerability from point of view aesthetic aspects. Therefore the lamp type has been required that has small size and number of colors in order to resolve these problems. Recently multi LED type door status indication lamp have been developed that can meet the requirements and this lamp has been applied in many railway projects. In this study, I'll introduce the general characteristics and mechanical & electrical characteristics of multi LED type door status indication lamp to help development of this kinds of lamp.

  • PDF

Annual Variations(2001-2010) of Phytoplankton Standing Stocks in Saemangeum Water Region (새만금 수역 식물플랑크톤 현존량의 경년(2001-2010) 변화)

  • Yeo, Hwan-Goo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.13 no.9
    • /
    • pp.4326-4333
    • /
    • 2012
  • Phytoplankton standing stocks had been researched in Saemangeum water region from 2001 to 2010 belong to the construction period of Saemangeum dike. The big change of phytoplankton standing stocks was shown, reaching 57 - 85,219 cells/ml according to the sampling seasons and stations. Inside of Saemangeum lake, a flux of fresh water and sea water made the phytoplankton standing stocks changed spatiotemporally. Meanwhile, the water bloom was frequent with continuously high standing stocks of fresh water stations and the standing stocks outside of the dike have been normal. In the long-term point of view, the standing stock did not show a big change comparing to the before and after of closing the dike(April, 2006).

A Study on the stock price prediction and influence factors through NARX neural network optimization (NARX 신경망 최적화를 통한 주가 예측 및 영향 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Cheon, Min Jong;Lee, Ook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
    • /
    • v.21 no.8
    • /
    • pp.572-578
    • /
    • 2020
  • The stock market is affected by unexpected factors, such as politics, society, and natural disasters, as well as by corporate performance and economic conditions. In recent days, artificial intelligence has become popular, and many researchers have tried to conduct experiments with that. Our study proposes an experiment using not only stock-related data but also other various economic data. We acquired a year's worth of data on stock prices, the percentage of foreigners, interest rates, and exchange rates, and combined them in various ways. Thus, our input data became diversified, and we put the combined input data into a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) model. With the input data in the NARX model, we analyze and compare them to the original data. As a result, the model exhibits a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.08 as being the most accurate when we set 10 neurons and two delays with a combination of stock prices and exchange rates from the U.S., China, Europe, and Japan. This study is meaningful in that the exchange rate has the greatest influence on stock prices, lowering the error from RMSE 0.589 when only closing data are used.

The Empirical Study about the World Economy Synchronization using Returns Transitions between Stock Markets (주식시장의 수익률 전이로 살펴본 세계경제 동조화에 관한 실증연구)

  • Roh, Sang-Youn
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.23 no.3
    • /
    • pp.443-456
    • /
    • 2010
  • This study is an empirical research of the stock markets to prove the synchronization phenomenon of the world economy. For this research I analyzed Korea's KOSPI, USA's DOW & NASDAQ reflecting stock markets in North America, Japan's NIKKEI in Asia, and Germany's DAX in Europe. Because the raw series are not stationary, they are to be transformed to returns series. The results of the study are follows: First of all, there are significant causalities between KOSPI's returns and those of other indices. Second, feedback effects are found between the market returns with several time lags. Third, there are 4 cointegrating equations which embody the relation of the five returns series. And forth, KOSPI reacts more sensitively to impacts from the foreign indices compared to the other indices do when they got impacts from each other except KOSPI. On conclusion, there exists a clear evidence for the synchronization phenomenon in returns of the stock indices, and we can expect Korea market may get similar changes depending on the economic changes of North America, Europe, or Asia. Therefore more closing researches should be conducted about the world economy synchronization in various fields as soon as possible.

The Weekend and January Effect in the Ghana Stock Market (가나 증권시장의 주말 효과와 1월 효과)

  • Ahialey, Joseph Kwaku;Kang, Ho-Jung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.15 no.8
    • /
    • pp.460-472
    • /
    • 2015
  • The aim of this study is to analyze the Weekend and January effect in the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) using daily closing prices of GSE-All Share Index (ASI) and Composite Index (CI) between the period of January 4th, 2005 and December 31st, 2013. The dataset covers the period of 2005 to 2010 (6 years) for the ASI and 2011 to 2013 (3 years) for the CI. The following results are obtained based on a parametric regression using dummy variables. First, no weekly effect or anomaly is documented for both GSE-ASI and GSE-CI. Second, market abnormalities are captured for both GSE-ASI and GSE-CI over their respective entire periods. However, no consistent April effect is found for ASI when the period was segregated into two periods of three years. The April effect is uncovered for the GSE-ASI at 5% significant level while the January effect is found for the GSE-CI at 1% significant level.

Overnight Information E ects on Intra-Day Stoc Market Volatility (비거래시간대 주식시장정보가 장중 주가변동성에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong;Choi, Heung-Sik
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.23 no.5
    • /
    • pp.823-834
    • /
    • 2010
  • Stock markets perpetually accumulate information. During trading hours the price instantaneously reacts to new information, but accumulated overnight information reacts simultaneously on the opening price. This can create opening price uctuations. This study explores the overnight information e ects on intra-da stock market volatility. GARCH models and the VKOSPI model are provided. Empirical data includes daily opening and closing prices of the KOSPI 200 index and the VKOSPI from March $3^{rd}$ 2008 to June $22^{th}$ 2010. Empirical results show that the VKOSPI signi cantly decrease during trading time when positiv overnight information moves the Korean stock upward. This study provides useful information to investors since the Korea Exchange plans to introduce a futures market for the VKOSPI soon.