• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제53권6호
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• pp.75-84
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of climate and land use changes in a rural small watershed. HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, ver.3) A2 scenario and LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station - Weather Generator) were used to generate future climatic data. Future land use data were also generated by the CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov) method. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate hydrologic impacts. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated with stream flow measured at the Baran watershed in Korea. The SWAT model simulation results agreed well with observed values during the calibration and validation periods. In this study, hydrologic impacts were analyzed according to three scenarios: future climate change (Scenario I), future land use change (Scenario II), and both future climate and land use changes (Scenario III). For Scenario I, the comparison results between a 30-year baseline period (1997~2004) and a future 30-year period (2011~2040) indicated that the total runoff, surface runoff, lateral subsurface runoff, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration increased as precipitation and temperature for the future 30-year period increased. The monthly variation analysis results showed that the monthly runoff for all months except September increased compared to the baseline period. For Scenario II, both the total and surface runoff increased as the built-up area, including the impervious surface, increased, while the groundwater discharge and evapotranspiration decreased. The monthly variation analysis results indicated that the total runoff increased in the summer season, when the precipitation was concentrated. In Scenario III, the results showed a similar trend to that of Scenario II. The monthly runoff for all months except October increased compared to the baseline period.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제42권3호
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• pp.405-420
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• 2007

본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 수문요소의 변동을 파악하기 위해 섬진강댐과 소양강댐 유역의 물순환 과정에 미치는 영향을 분석 평가하였다. 그 결과를 정리하자면 다음과 같다. 먼저 지난 30년간 기온과 강수량은 점차 증가하는 경향이 뚜렷하게 나타나고 있으나 증발산량은 지역에 따라 상이하게 나타나고 있으며 연평균 기온상승과 연증발산량의 증가가 정의 관계에 있다고 볼 수 없었다. Penman-FAO24법에 기초한 기후학적 물수지방법과 실측값은 서로 유의한 것으로 밝혀져 국내 물수지 연구에 사용가능한 것으로 사료된다. 한편 연강수량 증대에 따라 연유출량의 증가는 인정되나 연유출률에 대한 변동은 실측값과 계산값 간의 변동이 상이하게 나타나고 있어 기후변화의 영향이 유역의 유출특성에 크게 영향을 미치고 있다고 단정하기 어렵다. 기후변화에 의한 수자원관리와 재난관리에 큰 어려움이 예상되고 있다는 것은 이미 널리 알려진 사실이다. 이에 대한 적절한 대응방안을 강구하기 위해서는 유역의 기후학적 조건과 수문학적 변동성에 대한 깊은 이해가 필요하며 보다 조밀한 수문관측망의 구축과 신뢰도 높은 자료의 축적이 전제되어야 할 것이다.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.285-289
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• 2014

The extension of growing season (GS) across the Northern Hemisphere have been linked to increasing temperature, related with global warming. Therefore, in this study, The start, end, and length of GS in Suwon, Korea from 1971 to 2013 based on observed daily mean air temperature are examined using three indices. The GS starts on average after $98.598.5{\pm}1.42$ Julian days and ends after $318.7{\pm}1.08$ Julian days. The average length of GS is $220.2{\pm}2.09$ Julian days. The length of GS in Suwon from 1971 to 2013 has been extended by 6.8 days/decade with an earlier onset of the GS (-4.1 days/decade) and later end of the GS (2.7 days/decade). This change may be due to an advanced start of the GS in spring rather than later end of the GS. In further study, it is necessary to select an index carefully to find the most suitable one for Korea.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.162-162
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• 2023

Climate change is a complex phenomenon having its impact on diverse sectors. Temperature and precipitation are two of the most fundamental variables used to characterize climate, and changes in these variables can have significant impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, and human societies. This study evaluated the historical (1981-2010) and future (2011-2100) climatic trends in the Seti-Gandaki basin of Nepal based on 5 km resolution Multi Model Ensemble (MME) of 18 Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-85 scenarios. For this study, ERA5 reanalysis dataset is used for historical reference dataset instead of observation dataset due to a lack of good observation data in the study area. Results show that the basin has experienced continuous warming and an increased precipitation pattern in the historical period, and this rising trend is projected to be more prominent in the future. The Seti basin hosts 13 operational hydropower projects of different sizes, with 10 more planned by the government. Consequently, the findings of this study could be leveraged to design adaptation measures for existing hydropower schemes and provide a framework for policymakers to formulate climate change policies in the region. Furthermore, the methodology employed in this research could be replicated in other parts of the country to generate precise climate projections and offer guidance to policymakers in devising sustainable development plans for sectors like irrigation and hydropower.

• Advances in environmental research
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.265-279
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• 2017

The climate change has made adverse effects on land surface temperature for many regions of the world. Several climatic studies focused on different downscaling techniques for climatological parameters of different regions. For statistical downscaling of any hydrological parameters, conventional Neural Network Models were used in common. However, it seems that in any modeling study, uncertainty is a vital aspect when making any predictions about the performance. In this paper, Gamma Test is performed to determine the data length selection for training to minimize the uncertainty in model development. Another measure to improve the data quality and model development are wavelet transforms. Hence, Gamma Test with Wavelet decomposed Feedforward Neural Network (GT-WNN) model is developed and tested for downscaled land surface temperature of Patna Urban, Bihar. The results of GT-WNN model are compared with GT-FFNN and conventional Feedforward Neural Network (FFNN) model. The effectiveness of the developed models is illustrated by Root Mean Square Error and Coefficient of Correlation. Results showed that GT-WNN outperformed the GT-FFNN and conventional FFNN in downscaling the land surface temperature. The land surface temperature is forecasted for a period of 2015-2044 with GT-WNN model for Patna Urban in Bihar. In addition, the significance of the probable changes in the land surface temperature is also found through Mann-Kendall (M-K) Test for Summer, Winter, Monsoon and Post Monsoon seasons. Results showed an increasing surface temperature trend for summer and winter seasons and no significant trend for monsoon and post monsoon season over the study area for the period between 2015 and 2044. Overall, the M-K test analysis for the annual data shows an increasing trend in the land surface temperature of Patna Urban.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제42권11호
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• pp.933-951
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• 2009

지구온난화에 따른 기후변화가 우리나라의 물순환 과정에 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 강우는 여러 기상인자들과 복잡한 영향을 주고 받으며 발생한다. 따라서 강우는 물순환 과정에서 기후변화에 따른 영향을 크게 받는 인자 중의 하나이다. 본 연구에서는 강우특성을 나타낼 수 있는 여러 시계열 자료를 구축하였다. 또한 강우의 발생 시계열을 연별, 계절별 및 월별로 구성하여 분석하였다. 분석 방법은 시계열 자료의 평균과 표준편차의 변동성 분석과 경향성 분석을 수행하였다. 또한, 최근 10년 동안에 강우특성의 변화에 대한 상대오차를 계산하여 과거 자료들과 비교하였다. 분석 결과에서 강우자료의 고유 특성인 무작위성에 의하여 뚜렷한 통계적 결과는 나타나지 않았다. 그러나 일반적으로 최근 10년간 강우량은 증가하였으며, 강우일수는 감소하는 추세를 보였다. 또한, 계절별과 월별에 따른 강우특성의 변화가 다르게 나타나고 있음을 확인할 수 있다.

• 대기
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.1-20
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• 2023

Holding the longest observation data from April 1904, Busan is one of the essential points to understand the climate variability of the Korean Peninsula without missing data since implementing the modern weather observation of the South Korea. Busan is featured by coastal areas and affected by various climate factors and fluctuations. This study aims to investigate climate variability and changes in climatic variables, extremes, and several weather indexes. The statistically significant change points in daily mean rainfall intensity and temperature were found in 1964 and 1965. Based on the change point detection, 117 years were divided into two periods for daily mean rainfall intensity and temperature, respectively. In the long-term temperature analysis of Busan, the increasing trend of the daily maximum temperature during the period of 1965~2021 was larger than the daily mean temperature and the daily minimum temperature. Applying Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, daily maximum temperature is largely affected by the decadal variability compared to the daily mean and minimum temperature. In addition, the trend of daily precipitation intensity from 1964~2021 shows a value of about 0.50 mm day^-1, suggesting that the rainfall intensity has increased compared to the preceding period. The results in extremes analysis demonstrate that return values of both extreme temperatures and precipitation show higher values in the latter than in the former period, indicating that the intensity of the current extreme phenomenon increases. For Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (effective humidity), increasing (decreasing) trend is significant in Busan with the second (third)-largest change among four stations.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제30권1B호
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• pp.1-11
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• 2010

본 논문에서는 측우기 관측 자료계열(CWK)과 근대우량계 관측 자료계열(MRG)의 월별 장기변화 특성을 파악하기 위하여 통계적 경향성 검정방법 5가지를 이용하여 각 자료계열의 경향성 여부를 검정하였다. 더불어 각 자료계열별로 연도별 시간축과 월별 시간축을 동시에 고려한 2차원 LOWESS 회귀분석을 실시하여 강우의 변동 특성을 분석하였다. 경향성 분석결과 검정방법별로 95% 신뢰수준에서 경향성에 대해 큰 유의성이 있다고 보기는 어려웠다. 4가지 강우특성에 대한 2차원 LOWESS 회귀분석 결과, 1980년 이후부터 강우의 양적 증가추세와 더불어 강우의 월간 변화폭도 급격한 증가추세를 보이고 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제40권5호
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• pp.584-593
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• 2005

난방도일과 냉방도일은 에너지 사용량 예측에 사용되는 개념으로 특정 지역의 열기후적 특성을 이해하는 데 유용하게 사용되어 왔다. 난방도일과 냉방도일의 공간 분포는 반대로 나타난다. 난방도일의 경우 남부에서 최소가 나타나고 북쪽으로 올수록 그 값이 증가하고 강원도를 포함한 북동쪽에서 최대가 나타났다. 냉방도일은 제주도와 남부에서 최대가 나타나고 북쪽으로 올수록 그 값이 감소한다. 냉방도일에는 최근 30년간 뚜렷한 변화 경향이 나타나지 않지만 난방도일의 경우는 모든 지점에서 뚜렷한 감소 경향이 나타났다. 난방도일의 감소는 최저기온의 급격한 상승에 기인한 것으로 판단된다. 또한 난방도일의 감소는 연 평균기온의 증가보다 뚜렷한 변화 경향을 나타냈다. 평균기온에서 뚜렷한 변화 경향이 탐지되지 않더라도 기후변화의 영향이 존재할 수 있음을 나타낸다. 또한 최근 급격한 난방도일의 감소는 기후편차지수의 증가를 초래하여 한반도 내 난방도일의 변동이 커지고 있음을 보여주고 있다.

• 미생물학회지
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.159-179
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• 1974

In order to investigate morphological and cultural characteristics of strains in species, Flammulina velutipes, the author collected isolates of Flammultina velutipes at 49 locations in Korea and cultivated these isolates on the various kinds of solid media. After investigating the cultural characteristics, appeared on the various media, he obtained the following results : 1. The variation of colors in the fruit bodies is connected with the variation of climatic environments(composite effects between mean temperature in January and number of rain days of 1mm and over precipitation). The author, therfore, can find out the trend that brown type is distributed in the midland climatic region and yellow type in the southern climatic regoin. 2. Two types can be classified into several strains respectively : the strain of abundant or insufficient productivity, and strain of selectivity or non-selectivity of media. 3. According to the results of mutual comparison of soluble mycelial proteins by disc electrophoresis using polyacrylamide gels, each type has special common protein fractions(brown type : band located at 26..5mm position from surface of gel, yellow type : band located at 24.5mm position from surface of gel), and each strain has special protein fractions too. Therefore this phenomenon seems to support the results obtained by the above-stated morphological and cultural studies. 4. In the adaptability of strains to the temperature, every strain has the nature of growing in lower temperature(the optimum temperature of 20.deg.C to 25.deg.C) except that YI-1 strain has the optimum temperatue of $25^{\circ}C$-26^{\circ}C. And mycelial growth of every strain is discontinued at $35^{\circ}C.$ 5. In the adaptability of strains to the H-ion concentration, every strain has wide adaptable range of H-ion concentration, and has optimum range of pH 5.5 to 6.6 in mycelial growth excepting YA01, BI-2 and YI-1. 6. In the utility of carbon sources, the mycelial growth of every strain is very poor on the media containing xylose(average diameter of mycelial growth : 18mm), and most strains utilize favorably sucrose(39mm), maltose(37mm) and dextrose(35mm) in mycelial growth. In the utility of nitrogen sources, every strain utilizes favorably organic nitrogens(36 mm)more than inorganic nitrogens (25 mm), and utilizes fully peptone nad asparagine in organic nitrogens. Especially BA-1, BIK-2 and YA-1 strains grow vigorously on each media containing various carbon and nitrogen sources. 7. The characteristic tests of the number of days required for mycelial growth, the number of days requried for sprout of young bodies, the length of stipe and the number of fruit bodies formation seem to be useful methods in the early selection of the strain of the abundant productivity.