• 환경영향평가
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.105-117
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• 2012

Future climate according to land-use change was simulated by regional climate model. The goal of study was to predict the distribution of meteorological elements using the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF). The KME (Korea Ministry of Environment) medium-category land-use classification was used as dominant vegetation types. Meteorological modeling requires higher and more sophisticated land-use and initialization data. The WRF model simulations with HyTAG land-use indicated certain change in potential vegetation distribution in the future (2086-2088). Compared to the past (1986-1988) distribution, coniferous forest area was decreased in metropolitan and areas with complex terrain. The research shows a possibility to simulate regional climate with high resolution. As a result, the future climate was predicted to $4.5^{\circ}$ which was $0.5^{\circ}$ higher than prediction by Meteorological Administration. To improve future prediction of regional area, regional climate model with HyTAG as well as high resolution initial values such as urban growth and CO2 flux simulation would be desirable.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.19-27
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• 2009

In this study, Urban Climate Simulation was performed by 3-Dimensional Urban Canopy Model. The characteristics of urban climate were analyzed combining artificial land coverage, building size, heat production from the air conditioning and topographic conditions as physical variables which affects urban climate characteristics. The results are as follows. (1) The aspects of the urban climatal change is derived to be related to the combination of the building coverage ratio, building height and shading area. According to the building height, the highest temperature was increased by $2.1^{\circ}C$ from 2-story to 5-story building and the absolute humidity by 2.1g/kg maximum and the wind velocity by 1.0m/s was decreased from 2-story to 20-story building. (2) Whole heat generation was influenced by the convective sensible heat at the lower building height and by the artificial heat generation at the higher one over 20-story building influence to some extent of the building coverage ratio. The effect of the altitude is not more considerable than the other variables as below $1^{\circ}C$ of the air temperature. In the last, deriving the combination of building coverage and building height is needed to obtain effectiveness of the urban built environment planning at the point of the urban climate. These simulation results need to be constructed as DB which shows urban quantitative thermal characters by the urban physical structure. These can be quantitative base for suggesting combinations of the building and urban planning features at the point of the desirable urban thermal environment as well as analyzing urban climate phenomenon.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2009년도 학술발표회 초록집
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• pp.52-56
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• 2009

In this study a dynamic modeling scheme is presented to derive the probabilistic structure of soil water and plant water stress when subject to stochastic precipitation conditions. The newly developed model has the form of the Fokker-Planck equation, and its applicability as a model for the probabilistic evolution of the soil water and plant water stress is investigated under climate change scenarios. This model is based on the cumulant expansion theory, and has the advantage of providing the probabilistic solution in the form of probability distribution function (PDF), from which one can obtain the ensemble average behavior of the dynamics. The simulation result of soil water confirms that the proposed soil water model can properly reproduce the results obtained from observations, and it also proves that the soil water behaves with consistent cycle based on the precipitation pattern. The plant water stress simulation, also, shows two different PDF patterns according to the precipitation. Moreover, with all the simulation results with climate change scenarios, it can be concluded that the future soil water and plant water stress dynamics will differently behave with different climate change scenarios.

• 대기
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.27-44
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to investigate predictability of the seasonal simulation by the METRI (Meteorological Research Institute) AGCM (Atmospheric General Circulation Model), which is a long-term prediction model for the METRI 3-month prediction system. We examine the performance skill of climate simulation and predictability by the analysis of variance of the METRI AGCM, focusing on the precipitation, 850 hPa temperature, and 500 hPa geopotential height. According to the result, the METRI AGCM shows systematic errors with seasonal march, and represents large errors over the equatorial region, compared to the observation. Also, the response of the METRI AGCM by the variation of the sea surface temperature is obvious for the wintertime and springtime. However, the METRI AGCM does not show the significant ENSO-related signal in autumn. In case of prediction over the east Asian region, errors between the prediction results and the observation are not quite large with the lead-time. However, in the predictability assessment using the analysis of variance method, longer lead-time makes the prediction better, and the predictability becomes better in the springtime.

• 한국지구과학회지
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• 제38권5호
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• pp.345-356
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• 2017

It is important to understand the variability of tropospheric ozone since it is both a major pollutant affecting human health and a greenhouse gas influencing global climate. We analyze the characteristics of East Asia tropospheric ozone simulated in a chemistry-climate model. We use a global chemical transport model, driven by the prescribed meteorological fields from an air-sea coupled climate model simulation. Compared with observed data, the ozone simulation shows differences in distribution and concentration levels; in the vicinity of the Korean Peninsula, a large error occurred in summer. Our analysis reveals that this bias is mainly due to the difference in atmospheric circulation, as the anomalous southerly winds lead to the decrease in tropospheric ozone in this region. In addition, observational data have shown that the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) reduces tropospheric ozone across the southern China/Korean Peninsula/Japan region. In the model, the ozone changes associated with WNPSH are shifted westward relative to the observations. Our findings suggest that the variations in WNPSH should be considered in predicting tropospheric ozone concentrations.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제13권6호
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• pp.519-528
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• 2010

A meteorological model, RAMS, and a commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model, FLUENT are combined as a one-way off-line nested modeling system, namely, RAMS/FLUENT system. The system is experimentally applied in the wind simulation over a complex terrain, with which numerical simulations of wind field over Foyeding weather station located in the northwest mountainous area of Beijing metropolis are performed. The results show that the method of combining a meteorological model and a CFD model as a modeling system is reasonable. In RAMS/FLUENT system, more realistic boundary conditions are provided for FLUENT rather than idealized vertical wind profiles, and the finite volume method (FVM) of FLUENT ensures the capability of the modeling system on describing complex terrain in the simulation. Thus, RAMS/FLUENT can provide fine-scale realistic wind data over complex terrains.

• 대기
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.55-68
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• 2007

Future climate changes over East Asia are projected by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols using ECHO-G/S (ECHAM4/HOPE-G). Climate simulation in the 21st century is conducted with three standard SRES scenarios (A1B, B1, and A2) and the model performance is assessed by the 20th Century (20C3M) experiment. From the present climate simulation (20C3M), the model reproduced reliable climate state in the most fields, however, cold bias in temperature and dry bias of summer in precipitation occurred. The intercomparison among models using Taylor diagram indicates that ECHO-G/S exhibits smaller mean bias and higher pattern correlation than other nine AOGCMs. Based on SRES scenarios, East Asia will experience warmer and wetter climate in the coming 21st century. Changes of geographical patterns from the present to the future are considerably similar through all the scenarios except for the magnitude difference. The temperature in winter and precipitation in summer show remarkable increase. In spite of the large uncertainty in simulating precipitation by regional scale, we found that the summer (winter) precipitation at eastern coast (north of $40^{\circ}N$) of East Asia has significantly increased. In the 21st century, the warming over the continents of East Asia showed much more increase than that over the ocean. Hence, more enhanced (weakened) land-sea thermal contrast over East Asia in summer (winter) will cause strong (weak) monsoon. In summer, the low pressure located in East Asia becomes deeper and the moisture from the south or southeast is transported more into the land. These result in increasing precipitation amount over East Asia, especially at the coastal region. In winter, the increase (decrease) of precipitation is accompanied by strengthening (weakening) of baroclinicity over the land (sea) of East Asia.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.22-35
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• 2016

Global climate change could have an impact on hydrological process of a watershed and result in problems with future water supply by influencing the recharge process into the aquifer. This study aims to assess the change of groundwater recharge rate by climate change and to predict the sustainability of groundwater resource in Pyoseon watershed, Jeju Island. For the prediction, the groundwater recharge rate of the study area was estimated based on two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) by using the Soil Water Balance (SWB) computer code. The calculated groundwater recharge rate was used for groundwater flow simulation and the change of groundwater level according to the climate change was predicted using a numerical simulation program (FEFLOW 6.1). The average recharge rate from 2020 to 2100 was predicted to decrease by 10~12% compared to the current situation (1990~2015) while the evapotranspiration and the direct runoff rate would increase at both climate scenarios. The decrease in groundwater recharge rate due to the climate change results in the decline of groundwater level. In some monitoring wells, the predicted mean groundwater level at the year of the lowest water level was estimated to be lower by 60~70 m than the current situation. The model also predicted that temporal fluctuation of groundwater recharge, runoff and evapotranspiration would become more severe as a result of climate change, making the sustainable management of water resource more challenging in the future. Our study results demonstrate that the future availability of water resources highly depends on climate change. Thus, intensive studies on climate changes and water resources should be performed based on the sufficient data, advanced climate change scenarios, and improved modeling methodology.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제28권5호
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• pp.581-594
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• 2012

The goal of this study is to investigate the effects of the chemical lateral boundary conditions (CLBCs) on Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) simulations of tropospheric ozone for East Asia. We developed linking tool to produce CLBCs of CMAQ from Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry (GEOS-Chem) as a global chemistry model. We examined two CLBCs: the fixed CLBC in CMAQ (CLBC-CMAQ) and the CLBC from GEOS-Chem (CLBC-GEOS). The ozone fields by CMAQ simulation with these two CLBCs were compared to Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) satellite data, ozonesonde and surface measurements for May and August in 2008. The results with CLBC-GOES showed a better tropospheric ozone prediction than that with CLBC-CMAQ. The CLBC-GEOS simulation led to the increase in tropospheric ozone concentrations throughout the model domain, due to be influenced high ozone concentrations of upper troposphere and near inflow western and northern boundaries. Statistical evaluations also showed that the CLBC-GEOS case had better results of both the index of Agreement (IOA) and mean normalized bias. In the case of IOA, the CLBC-GEOS simulation was improved about 0.3 compared to CLBC-CMAQ due to the better predictions for high ozone concentrations in upper troposphere.

• 한국습지학회지
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• 제21권spc호
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• pp.51-60
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• 2019

본 연구에서는 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 이용하여 지점빈도해석(At-site Frequency Analysis, AFA)과 지역빈도해석(Regional Frequency Analysis, RFA) 등을 수행하였고, Monte Carlo simulation을 통한 RRMSE(relative root mean squared error) 값을 비교·분석함으로써 각 빈도해석 방법에 따른 성능을 평가하고자 하였다. 확률강우량 산정을 위하여 기상청에서 국가표준시나리오로 제공하는 RCM(Regional Climate Model) 자료 중 하나인 HadGEM3-RA(12.5km) 기후모델 자료로부터 우리나라 615개 지점에 대한 일 강우 자료를 추출하였고, 자료의 편의보정(bias correction)과 공간상세화(spatial disaggregation)를 위하여 분위사상법(quantile mapping)과 역거리제곱법(inverse distance squared method)을 적용하였다. 분석 결과 지역빈도해석 방법이 지점빈도해석보다 정확하게 확률강우량을 산정하는 것으로 나타났으며, 이는 기후변화 시나리오 기반의 확률강우량 산정시 지역빈도해석의 결과가 보다 합리적인 전망 결과를 도출할 것으로 판단된다.