• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제42권10호
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• pp.877-889
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• 2009

본 연구에서는 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) 모형을 이용하여 미래 기후변화가 충주댐 유역(6,585.1 km$^2$)의 하천수질에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 하였다. 미래 기상자료는 IPCC에서 제공하는 A2, A1B, B1 배출시나리오를 포함하는 ECHAM5-OM 모형의 결과를 과거 30년(1977-2006, baseline period) 기후자료를 바탕으로 편이보정(bias correction)과 Change Factor Method로 Downscaling 하였다. 6년(1998-2003) 동안의 일별 유출량 및 월별 수질(SS, T-N, T-P) 자료를 이용하여 모형의 보정 및 검증을 실시한 후, Downscaling된 ECHAM5-OM의 A2, A1B, B1 시나리오에 대해 2020s, 2050s, 2080s로 대별되는 미래의 수문학적 거동 변화 및 하천수질 변화를 전망하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.1429-1437
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• 2013

빅 데이터 분석기법 중 비정형데이터 분석기법인 텍스트 마이닝 기법을 이용하여 기후변화 관련 식품분야 논문 초록에서 용어들의 출현빈도를 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 용어-문헌 행렬을 만들고, 용어들간의 비유사성 측도를 바탕으로 계층적 군집분석기법을 적용하여 문서들을 군집화하였다. 군집화된 문서들간의 상호 연관성과 군집별로 특정용어의 빈도를 파악하여 문서군집을 특정주제별로 분류하였다. 이러한 연구를 통하여 식품분야의 기후변화 관련 논문들의 추세와 관심주제어를 파악할 수 있었으며, 향후 기후변화 적응 및 대응 체계 로드맵 작성 시 연구 개발 기초 자료로 활용할 수 있을 것이다.

• 대기
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.387-395
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• 2008

The impact of horizontal resolution on a regional climate model was investigated by simulating precipitation over the Korean Peninsula. As a regional climate model, the SNURCM(Seoul National University Regional Climate Model) has 21 sigma layers and includes the NCAR CLM(National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model) for land-surface model, the Grell scheme for cumulus convection, the Simple Ice scheme for explicit moisture, and the MRF(Medium-Range Forecast) scheme for PBL(Planetary Boundary Layer) processing. The SNURCM was performed with 20 km resolution for Korea and 60 km resolution for East Asia during a 20-year period (1980-1999). Although the SNURCM systematically underestimated precipitation over the Korean Peninsula, the increase of model resolution simulated more precipitation in the southern region of the Korean Peninsula, and a more accurate distribution of precipitation by reflecting the effect of topography. The increase of precipitation was produced by more detailed terrain data which has a 10 minute terrain in the 20 km resolution model compared to the 30 minute terrain in the 60 km resolution model. The increase in model resolution and more detailed terrain data played an important role in generating more precipitation over the Korean Peninsula. While the high resolution model with the same terrain data resulted in increasing of precipitation over the Korean Peninsula including the adjoining sea, the difference of the terrain data resolution only influenced the precipitation distribution of the mountainous area by increasing the amount of non-convective rain. In conclusion, the regional climate model (SNURCM) with higher resolution simulated more precipitation over the Korean Peninsula by reducing the systematic underestimation of precipitation over the Korean Peninsula.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제46권6호
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• pp.683-696
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• 2013

최근 도시지역에서는 호우로 인한 침수피해가 빈번하게 발생하고 있다. 특히 치수계획 수립의 기초가 되는 확률강우량을 초과한 국지적인 집중호우는 도시지역 침수피해의 주요 원인이 된다. 따라서 강우의 지역적인 특성을 고려한 신뢰도를 향상시킨 확률강우량 산정이 요구된다. 그러나 현재의 확률강우량 산정에는 강우의 시 공간적인 특성을 고려하지 않고 기상청 강우관측소 지점의 자료를 모든 지역에 동일하게 적용하고 있는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화 영향 및 강우의 시 공간적인 특성을 고려한 확률강우량을 예측하였다. 강우의 공간적인 특성을 고려하기 위하여 AWS의 자료를 활용하였으며, 부족한 강우자료를 확보하기 위하여 강우발생 모형인 WGR 모형을 적용하였고, 기후변화 시나리오는 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5를 적용하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 치수대책 수립을 위한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 대기
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• 제33권4호
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• pp.423-440
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• 2023

The updated version of Global Ocean Data Assimilation and Prediction System (GODAPS) in the NIMS/KMA (National Institute of Meteorological Sciences/Korea Meteorological Administration), which has been in operation since December 2021, is being introduced. This technical note on GODAPS2 describes main progress and updates to the previous version of GODAPS, a software tool for the operating system, and its improvements. GODAPS2 is based on Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) vn14.1, instead of previous version, FOAM vn13. The southern limit of the model domain has been extended from 77°S to 85°S, allowing the modelling of the circulation under ice shelves in Antarctica. The adoption of non-linear free surface and variable volume layers, the update of vertical mixing parameterization, and the adjustment of isopycnal diffusion coefficient for the ocean model decrease the model biases. For the sea-ice model, four vertical ice layers and an additional snow layer on top of the ice layers are being used instead of previous single ice and snow layers. The changes for data assimilation include the updated treatment for background error covariance, a newly added bias scheme combined with observation bias, the application of a new bias correction for sea level anomaly, an extension of the assimilation window from 1 day to 2 days, and separate assimilations for ocean and sea-ice. For comparison, we present the difference between GODAPS and GODAPS2. The verification results show that GODAPS2 yields an overall improved simulation compared to GODAPS.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.447-474
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• 2018

본 연구의 목적은 다양한 지리통계학적 공간화 기법을 적용한 격자기후자료와 기상청에서 제공하는 국지예보모델(Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System, LDAPS) 격자기후자료를 비교 분석하여 남한 지역의 고해상도 격자기후지도 작성 방안을 모색하는 것이다. 2017년의 595개 기후관측자료 중, 80%의 지점자료를 이용하여 순간 온도와 1시간 누적강수량에 대한 격자기후자료를 생성하였고 나머지 117개의 지점자료를 검증에 이용하였다. ArcGIS10.3.1과 Python3.6.4을 이용하여 관측자료 및 DEM을 IDW, 공동크리깅, 크리깅에 적용한 후, 공간보간 결과를 3개 군집으로 나누어 검증하였으며 LDAPS 격자기후자료를 바탕으로 유역 별 패턴 비교를 수행하였다. 결과적으로 순간 온도의 공간화에는 고도를 부변수로 추가한 공동크리깅이, 1시간 누적강수량 공간화에는 IDW가 가장 적합하였다.

• 환경정책연구
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.85-112
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• 2015

본 논문의 목적은 기후변화로 인한 재난으로부터 회복력이 높은 공간계획을 수립하기 위해 도시, 환경, 방재 분야 공간정보 현황을 분석하고 분야 간 공간정보 연계 활용방안을 제시하는 것이다. 이를 위해 문헌 자료 검토와 함께 관련 기관 담당자 전화 면접 인터뷰, 전문가 자문 등을 통해 분야별 공간계획 지침 및 공간정보 활용 현황을 파악하였다. 이러한 공간정보 조사결과를 통해 시 군 구 지자체 단위의 법정 공간계획 수립 시 각 분야에서 연계 활용 가능한 공간정보 목록을 도출하였다. 이러한 조사 결과를 바탕으로 기후변화 적응을 위한 공간계획 수립 시 도시, 환경, 방재 분야 간 공간정보 연계 및 정책적 활용 방안을 제시하였다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제46권2호
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• pp.105-110
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• 2013

Objectives: The mass media play a crucial role in risk communication regarding climate change. The aim of this study was to investigate the trend in journalistic reports on climate change in the daily newspapers of Korea. Methods: We selected 9 daily newspapers in Korea, which according to the ABC Association, represented 77% of newspaper circulation, out of a total of 44 Korean daily newspapers. The collected articles were from 2009 to 2011. All of the articles were sorted into the following 8 categories: greenhouse gas, climate change conventions, sea level rise, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis reports, expected damage and effect, use of fossil fuels, global warming, and mitigation or adaptation. A chi-squared test was done on the articles, which were counted and classified into cause, effect, and measurement of climate change according to the newspaper's majority or minority ownership structure. Results: From the 9 selected newspapers, the number of articles on climate change by month was greatest in December 2009. Generally, the articles vague about climate change (lack of precise data, negative or skeptical tone, and improper use of terminology) were much more common than the articles presenting accurate knowledge. A statistical difference was found based on ownership structure: the majority-owned newspapers addressed the cause of climate change, while the minority-owned newspapers referred more to climate change measurement. Conclusions: Our investigation revealed that generally Korean daily newspapers did not deliver accurate information about climate change. The coverage of the newspapers showed significant differences according to the ownership structure.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.22-35
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• 2016

Global climate change could have an impact on hydrological process of a watershed and result in problems with future water supply by influencing the recharge process into the aquifer. This study aims to assess the change of groundwater recharge rate by climate change and to predict the sustainability of groundwater resource in Pyoseon watershed, Jeju Island. For the prediction, the groundwater recharge rate of the study area was estimated based on two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5) by using the Soil Water Balance (SWB) computer code. The calculated groundwater recharge rate was used for groundwater flow simulation and the change of groundwater level according to the climate change was predicted using a numerical simulation program (FEFLOW 6.1). The average recharge rate from 2020 to 2100 was predicted to decrease by 10~12% compared to the current situation (1990~2015) while the evapotranspiration and the direct runoff rate would increase at both climate scenarios. The decrease in groundwater recharge rate due to the climate change results in the decline of groundwater level. In some monitoring wells, the predicted mean groundwater level at the year of the lowest water level was estimated to be lower by 60~70 m than the current situation. The model also predicted that temporal fluctuation of groundwater recharge, runoff and evapotranspiration would become more severe as a result of climate change, making the sustainable management of water resource more challenging in the future. Our study results demonstrate that the future availability of water resources highly depends on climate change. Thus, intensive studies on climate changes and water resources should be performed based on the sufficient data, advanced climate change scenarios, and improved modeling methodology.

• 대기
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.141-154
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• 2020

Seasonal forecast is growing in demand, as it provides valuable information for decision making and potential to reduce impact on weather events. This study examines how operational climate prediction systems can be reliable, producing the probability forecast in seasonal scale. A reliability diagram was used, which is a tool for the reliability by comparing probabilities with the corresponding observed frequency. It is proposed for a method grading scales of 1-5 based on the reliability diagram to quantify the reliability. Probabilities are derived from ensemble members using hindcast data. The analysis is focused on skill for 2 m temperature and precipitation from climate prediction systems in KMA, UKMO, and ECMWF, NCEP and JMA. Five categorizations are found depending on variables, seasons and regions. The probability forecast for 2 m temperature can be relied on while that for precipitation is reliable only in few regions. The probabilistic skill in KMA and UKMO is comparable with ECMWF, and the reliabilities tend to increase as the ensemble size and hindcast period increasing.