• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.35-48
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• 2009

The paper proposes a quantitative causal ordering map (QCOM) to combine qualitative and quantitative methods in a framework. The procedures for developing QCOM consist of three phases. The first phase is to collect partially known causal dependencies from experts and to convert them into relations and causal nodes of a model graph. The second phase is to find the global causal structure by tracing causality among relation and causal nodes and to represent it in causal ordering graph with signed coefficient. Causal ordering graph is converted into QCOM by assigning regression coefficient estimated from path analysis in the third phase. Experiments with the prediction model of Korea stock price show results as following; First, the QCOM can support the design of qualitative and quantitative model by finding the global causal structure from partially known causal dependencies. Second, the QCOM can be used as an integration tool of qualitative and quantitative model to offerhigher explanatory capability and quantitative measurability. The QCOM with static and dynamic analysis is applied to investigate the changes in factors involved in the model at present as well discrete times in the future.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2001.04b
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• pp.427-429
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• 2001

지금까지 가상현실을 이용한 여러 가지 시스템들이 제안되어 왔다. 하지만 이러한 시스템들은 사용자에게 몰입감을 줄 수 있는 예측하기 힘든 다양한 상황을 제공하기보다는 미리 정해진 시나리오를 따라 고정된 형태의 흐름을 가지는 문제점이 있었다. 이를 해결하기 위해가상세계 내에서의 오브젝트의 행동이나 이벤트의 전개를 위한 여러 가지 방법들이 제안되어왔다. 하지만 이 방법들 역시 방대한 탐색 공간이나 한정된 범위내에서만 자율적인 움직임이 가능한 점 등의 문제점을 가지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 이를 해결하기 위하여 Causality에 기반한 이벤트의 전개모델을 제안한다. 이를 위해 본 논문은 먼저 frame구조를 이용하여 정형화한 Structured Causal Graph를 제안하고, 구성되어진 Structured Causal Graph를 이용하여 이벤트를 전개해나가는 방법을 제시한다.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.687-708
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• 2003

The purpose of this paper is to introduce time-series causality analysis by combining time-series technique with graph theory. Vector autoregressive (VAR) models can provide reasonable interpretation only when the contemporaneous variables stand in a well-defined causal order. We show that how graph theory can be applied to search for the causal structure In VAR analysis. Using Maryland crop cash prices and CBOT futures price data, we estimate a VAR model with directed acyclic graph analysis. This expands our understanding the degree of interconnectivity between the employed time-series variables.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.450-457
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• 2004

In this research, the automatic synthesis of knowledge models is proposed. which are the basis of the methods using qualitative models adapted widely in fault diagnosis and hazard evaluation of chemical processes. To provide an easy and fast way to construct accurate causal model of the target process, the Role-Behavior modeling method is developed to represent the knowledge of modularized process units. In this modeling method, Fault-Behavior model and Structure-Role model present the relationship of the internal behaviors and faults in the process units and the relationship between process units respectively. Through the multiple modeling techniques, the knowledge is separated into what is independent of process and dependent on process to provide the extensibility and portability in model building, and possibility in the automatic synthesis. By taking advantage of the Role-Behavior Model, an algorithm is proposed to synthesize the plant-wide causal model, Fault-Causality Graph (FCG) from specific Fault-Behavior models of the each unit process, which are derived from generic Fault-Behavior models and Structure-Role model. To validate the proposed modeling method and algorithm, a system for building FCG model is developed on G2, an expert system development tool. Case study such as CSTR with recycle using the developed system showed that the proposed method and algorithm were remarkably effective in synthesizing the causal knowledge models for diagnosis of chemical processes.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.943-955
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• 2017

We investigate and estimate the causal effect of the survey methods in telephone surveys for the 19th presidential election. For this causal study, we draw a causal graph that represents the causal relationship between variables. Then we decide which variables should be included in the model and which variables should not be. We explain why the research agency is a should-be variable and the response rate is a shouldnot-be variable. The effect of ARS can not be estimated due to data limitations. We have found that there is no significant difference in the effect of the proportion of cell phone survey if it is less than about 90 percent. But the support rate for Moon Jae-in gets higher if the survey is performed only by cell phones.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.63-83
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• 2023

Many existing studies have found significant correlations between green spaces, including urban parks, and children's happiness. Furthermore, it was implied that the area/proximity of the urban park would be effective in enhancing infancy happiness. However, inferring causal effects from observed data requires appropriate adjustment of confounding variables, and from this perspective, the causal relationship between the area of urban parks and children's happiness has not been well understood. The causal effect of urban parks on children's happiness was estimated in this study using data from the panel study on Korean children. As methods for adjusting confounding variables, regression adjustment using a regression method, weighting method, and matching method were used, and key concepts of each method were described before the analysis results. Confounders were chosen for the analysis using a directed acyclic graph. In contrast to previous research, the analysis found no significant causal relationship between the size of the city park and children's happiness.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.849-858
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• 2016

It is important to control confounding bias when estimating the causal effect of treatment in an observational study. We illustrated that the covariate selection in the causal inference is different from the variable selection in the ANCOVA model. We then investigated the three criteria of covariate selection for controlling confounding bias, which can be used when we have inadequate information to draw a complete causal graph. VanderWeele and Shpitser (2011) proposed one of them and claimed it was better than the other two. We show by example that their criterion also has limitations and some disadvantages. There is no clear winner; however, their criterion is better (if some correction is made on its condition) than the other two because it can remove the confounding bias.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.860-863
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• 1997

FCM(Fuzzy Cognitive Map) is a fuzzy signed directed graph for representing causal reasoning which has fuzziness between causal concepts. Authors have already proposed FCM-based fault diagnostic scheme. However, the previously proposed scheme has the problem of lower diagnostic resolution. In order to improve the diagnostic resolution, a new diagnostic scheme based on extended FCM which incorporates the concept of fuzzy number into FCM is developed in this paper. Furthermore, an enhanced TAM(Temporal Associative Memory) recall procedure and pattern matching scheme are also proposed.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.53-58
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• 1998

By knowledge-based approach, the SDG(Signed Directed Graph) is automatically synthesized, which is commonly used to represent the causal effects between process variables. Automatic synthesis of SDG is progressed by two steps : (1)inference step uses knowledge base and (2)verification step uses Loop-Verifier. First, Topology and Knowledge Base are constructed by using the information on equipment. And then, Primary-SDG is synthesized by Character Pattern Matching between Variable-Relation-Representation generated by using Topology and Variable-Tendency-Data contained in Knowledge Base. Finally, a modified SDG is made after the Primary-SDG is verified by Loop-Verifier.

• Journal of Korean Port Research
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.55-64
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• 1998

Directed graphic algorithm was applied to an empirical analysis of traffic occupant fatalities based on a model by Crandall. In this paper, Crandall's data on U.S. traffic fatalities for the period 1947-1981 are focused and extended to include 1982-1993. Based on the 1947-1981 annual data, the directed graph algorithms reveal that occupant traffic deaths are directly caused by income, vehicle miles, and safety devices. Vehicle mileage is caused by income and rural driving. The estimation is conducted using three stage least squares regression. Those results show a difference between the traditional regression methodology and causal graphical analysis. It is also found that forecasts from the directed graph based model outperform forecasts from the regression-based models, in terms of mean squared forecasts error. Furthermore, it is demonstrates that there exists some latent variables between all explanatory variables and occupant deaths.