The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics (응용통계연구)

The Korean Statistical Society (한국통계학회)
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Causal effect of urban parks on children's happiness

도시공원 면적이 유아 행복감에 미치는 영향에 대한 인과관계 연구

  • Nayeon Kwon (Department of Statistics, SungKyunKwan University) ;
  • Chanmin Kim (Department of Statistics, SungKyunKwan University)
  • 권나연 (성균관대학교 통계학과) ;
  • 김찬민 (성균관대학교 통계학과)
  • Received : 2022.11.02
  • Accepted : 2022.11.13
  • Published : 2023.02.28
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Abstract

Many existing studies have found significant correlations between green spaces, including urban parks, and children's happiness. Furthermore, it was implied that the area/proximity of the urban park would be effective in enhancing infancy happiness. However, inferring causal effects from observed data requires appropriate adjustment of confounding variables, and from this perspective, the causal relationship between the area of urban parks and children's happiness has not been well understood. The causal effect of urban parks on children's happiness was estimated in this study using data from the panel study on Korean children. As methods for adjusting confounding variables, regression adjustment using a regression method, weighting method, and matching method were used, and key concepts of each method were described before the analysis results. Confounders were chosen for the analysis using a directed acyclic graph. In contrast to previous research, the analysis found no significant causal relationship between the size of the city park and children's happiness.

기존의 많은 연구에서 도시공원을 비롯한 녹지와 유아 행복감 간에 유의미한 상관관계를 도출했다. 또한 이를 통해 간접적으로 도시공원의 면적/근접성이 유아기의 행복감 증진에 효과가 있을 것이라 유추하였다. 하지만 관찰된 자료를 통한 인과효과 추정은 교란 변수의 적절한 조정을 필요로하고, 이런 관점에서 도시공원의 면적과 유아 행복감의 인과관계는 명확히 밝혀지지 않았다고 할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 한국아동패널 자료를 이용하여 도시공원의 면적이 유아 행복감에 미치는 영향에 대한 인과효과를 추정하였다. 교란 변수를 조정하기 위한 방법으로 회귀 모형을 이용한 조정(regression adjustment), 가중치 기법(weighting), 그리고 매칭(matching) 등을 이용하였고, 각 방법들의 중요 개념을 분석 결과에 앞서 기술하였다. 교란 변수의 선택에 있어서 유향 비순환 그래프(directed acyclic graph)를 사용하였다. 분석 결과, 기존의 상관관계를 이용한 결론과는 다르게 도시공원의 면적과 유아 행복감 간에는 유의미한 인과효과가 존재하지 않았다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 한국연구재단의 지원에 의해 수행한 연구입니다 (NRF-2020R1F1A1A01048168, NRF-2022R1F1A1062904).

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