Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ovarian dose during radiation therapy for breast cancer in women of childbearing age through an experiment. The ovarian dose is evaluated by comparing and analyzing between the calculated dose in the treatment planning system according to the treatment technique and the measured dose using a thermoluminescence dosimeter (TLD). The clinical usefulness of lead (Pb) apron is investigated through dose analysis according to whether or not it is used. Materials and Methods: Rando humanoid phantom was used for measurement, and wedge filter radiation therapy, 3D conformal radiation therapy, and intensity modulated radiation therapy were used as treatment techniques. A treatment plan was established so that 95% of the prescribed dose could be delivered to the right breast of the Rando humanoid phantom 3D image obtained using the CT simulator. TLD was inserted into the surface and depth of the virtual ovary of the Rando hunmanoid phantom and irradiated with radiation. The measurement location was the center of treatment and the point moved 2 cm to the opposite breast from the center of the Rando hunmanoid phantom, 5cm, 10cm, 12.5cm, 15cm, 17.5cm, 20cm from the boundary of the right breast to the center of treatment and downward, and the surface and depth of the right ovary. Measurements were made at a total of 9 central points. In the dose comparison of treatment planning systems, two wedge filter treatment techniques, three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy, and intensity-modulated radiation therapy were established and compared. Treatments were compared, and dose measurements according to the use of lead apron were compared and analyzed in intensity-modulated radiation therapy. The measured value was calculated by averaging three TLD values for each point and converting using the TLD calibration value, which was calculated as the point dose mean value. In order to compare the treatment plan value with the actual measured value, the absolute dose value was measured and compared at each point (%Diff). Results: At Point A, the center of treatment, a maximum of 201.7cGy was obtained in the treatment planning system, and a maximum of 200.6cGy was obtained in the TLD. In all treatment planning systems, 0cGy was calculated from Point G, which is a point 17.5cm downward from the breast interface. As a result of TLD, a maximum of 2.6cGy was obtained at Point G, and a maximum of 0.9cGy was obtained at Point J, which is the ovarian dose, and the absolute dose was 0.3%~1.3%. The difference in dose according to the use of lead aprons was from a maximum of 2.1cGy to a minimum of 0.1cGy, and the %Diff value was 0.1%~1.1%. Conclusion: In the treatment planning system, the difference in dose according to the three treatment plans did not show a significant difference from 0.85% to 2.45%. In the ovary, the difference between the Rando humanoid phantom's treatment planning system and the actual measured dose was within 0.9%, and the actual measured dose was slightly higher. This did not accurately reflect the effect of scattered radiation in the treatment planning system, and it is thought that the dose of scattered radiation and the dose taken by CBCT with TLD inserted were reflected in the actual measurement. In dosimetry according to the with or without a lead apron, when a lead apron was used, the closer the distance from the treatment range, the more effective the shielding was. Although it is not clinically appropriate for pregnancy or artificial insemination during radiotherapy, the dose irradiated to the ovaries during treatment is not expected to significantly affect the reproductive function of women of childbearing age after radiotherapy. However, since women of childbearing age have constant anxiety, it is thought that psychological stability can be promoted by presenting the data from this study.
A study was conducted to develop a model for estimating evapotranspiration and yield of Chinese cabbages from meteorological factors from 1981 to 1986 in Suweon, Korea. Lysimeters with water table maintained at 50cm depth were used to measure the potential evapotranspiration and the maximum evapotranspiration in situ. The actual evapotranspiration and the yield were measured in the field plots irrigated with different soil moisture regimes of -0.2, -0.5, and -1.0 bars, respectively. The soil water content throughout the profile was monitored by a neutron moisture depth gauge and the soil water potentials were measured using gypsum block and tensiometer. The fresh weight of Chinese cabbages at harvest was measured as yield. The data collected in situ were analyzed to obtain parameters related to modeling. The results were summarized as followings: 1. The 5-year mean of potential evapotranspiration (PET) gradually increased from 2.38 mm/day in early April to 3.98 mm/day in mid-June, and thereafter, decreased to 1.06 mm/day in mid-November. The estimated PET by Penman, Radiation or Blanney-Criddle methods were overestimated in comparison with the measured PET, while those by Pan-evaporation method were underestimated. The correlation between the estimated and the measured PET, however, showed high significance except for July and August by Blanney-Criddle method, which implied that the coefficients should be adjusted to the Korean conditions. 2. The meteorological factors which showed hgih correlation with the measured PET were temperature, vapour pressure deficit, sunshine hours, solar radiation and pan-evaporation. Several multiple regression equations using meteorological factors were formulated to estimate PET. The equation with pan-evaporation (Eo) was the simplest but highly accurate. PET = 0.712 + 0.705Eo 3. The crop coefficient of Chinese cabbages (Kc), the ratio of the maximum evapotranspiration (ETm) to PET, ranged from 0.5 to 0.7 at early growth stage and from 0.9 to 1.2 at mid and late growth stages. The regression equation with respect to the growth progress degree (G), ranging from 0.0 at transplanting day to 1.0 at the harvesting day, were:
In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.