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Bankruptcy prediction using an improved bagging ensemble (개선된 배깅 앙상블을 활용한 기업부도예측)

  • Min, Sung-Hwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.121-139
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    • 2014
  • Predicting corporate failure has been an important topic in accounting and finance. The costs associated with bankruptcy are high, so the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction is greatly important for financial institutions. Lots of researchers have dealt with the topic associated with bankruptcy prediction in the past three decades. The current research attempts to use ensemble models for improving the performance of bankruptcy prediction. Ensemble classification is to combine individually trained classifiers in order to gain more accurate prediction than individual models. Ensemble techniques are shown to be very useful for improving the generalization ability of the classifier. Bagging is the most commonly used methods for constructing ensemble classifiers. In bagging, the different training data subsets are randomly drawn with replacement from the original training dataset. Base classifiers are trained on the different bootstrap samples. Instance selection is to select critical instances while deleting and removing irrelevant and harmful instances from the original set. Instance selection and bagging are quite well known in data mining. However, few studies have dealt with the integration of instance selection and bagging. This study proposes an improved bagging ensemble based on instance selection using genetic algorithms (GA) for improving the performance of SVM. GA is an efficient optimization procedure based on the theory of natural selection and evolution. GA uses the idea of survival of the fittest by progressively accepting better solutions to the problems. GA searches by maintaining a population of solutions from which better solutions are created rather than making incremental changes to a single solution to the problem. The initial solution population is generated randomly and evolves into the next generation by genetic operators such as selection, crossover and mutation. The solutions coded by strings are evaluated by the fitness function. The proposed model consists of two phases: GA based Instance Selection and Instance based Bagging. In the first phase, GA is used to select optimal instance subset that is used as input data of bagging model. In this study, the chromosome is encoded as a form of binary string for the instance subset. In this phase, the population size was set to 100 while maximum number of generations was set to 150. We set the crossover rate and mutation rate to 0.7 and 0.1 respectively. We used the prediction accuracy of model as the fitness function of GA. SVM model is trained on training data set using the selected instance subset. The prediction accuracy of SVM model over test data set is used as fitness value in order to avoid overfitting. In the second phase, we used the optimal instance subset selected in the first phase as input data of bagging model. We used SVM model as base classifier for bagging ensemble. The majority voting scheme was used as a combining method in this study. This study applies the proposed model to the bankruptcy prediction problem using a real data set from Korean companies. The research data used in this study contains 1832 externally non-audited firms which filed for bankruptcy (916 cases) and non-bankruptcy (916 cases). Financial ratios categorized as stability, profitability, growth, activity and cash flow were investigated through literature review and basic statistical methods and we selected 8 financial ratios as the final input variables. We separated the whole data into three subsets as training, test and validation data set. In this study, we compared the proposed model with several comparative models including the simple individual SVM model, the simple bagging model and the instance selection based SVM model. The McNemar tests were used to examine whether the proposed model significantly outperforms the other models. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the other models.

A Intelligent Diagnostic Model that base on Case-Based Reasoning according to Korea - International Financial Reporting Standards (K-IFRS에 따른 사례기반추론에 기반한 지능형 기업 진단 모형)

  • Lee, Hyoung-Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.141-154
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    • 2014
  • The adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) is the one of important issues in the recent accounting research because the change from local GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) to IFRS has a substantial effect on accounting information. Over 100 countries including Australia, China, Canada and the European Union member countries adopt IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) for financial reporting purposes, and several more including the United States and Japan are considering the adoption of IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards). In Korea, 61 firms voluntarily adopted Korean International Financial Reporting Standard (K-IFRS) in 2009 and 2010 and all listed firms mandatorily adopted K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards) in 2011. The adoption of IFRS is expected to increase financial statement comparability, improve corporate transparency, increase the quality of financial reporting, and hence, provide benefits to investors This study investigates whether recognized accounts receivable discounting (AR discounting) under Korean International Financial Reporting Standard (K-IFRS) is more value relevant than disclosed AR discounting under Korean Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (K-GAAP). Because more rigorous standards are applied to the derecognition of AR discounting under K-IFRS(Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards), most AR discounting is recognized as a short term debt instead of being disclosed as a contingent liability unless all risks and rewards are transferred. In this research, I try to figure out industrial responses to the changes in accounting rules for the treatment of accounts receivable toward more strict standards in the recognition of sales which occurs with the adoption of Korea International Financial Reporting Standard. This study examines whether accounting information is more value-relevant, especially information on accounts receivable discounting (hereinafter, AR discounting) is value-relevant under K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards). First, note that AR discounting involves the transfer of financial assets. Under Korean Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (K-GAAP), when firms discount AR to banks before the AR maturity, firms conventionally remove AR from the balance-sheet and report losses from AR discounting and disclose and explain the transactions in the footnotes. Under K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards), however, most firms keep AR and add a short-term debt as same as discounted AR. This process increases the firms' leverage ratio and raises the concern to the firms about investors' reactions to worsening capital structures. Investors may experience the change in perceived risk of the firm. In the study sample, the average of AR discounting is 75.3 billion won (maximum 3.6 trillion won and minimum 18 million won), which is, on average 7.0% of assets (maximum 38.6% and minimum 0.002%), 26.2% of firms' accounts receivable (maximum 92.5% and minimum 0.003%) and 13.5% of total liabilities (maximum 69.5% and minimum 0.004%). After the adoption of K-IFRS (Korea-International Financial Reporting Standards), total liabilities increase by 13%p on average (maximum 103%p and minimum 0.004%p) attributable to AR discounting. The leverage ratio (total liabilities/total assets) increases by an average 2.4%p (maximum 16%p and minimum 0.001%p) and debt-to-equity ratio increases by average 14.6%p (maximum 134%p and minimum 0.006%) attributable to the recognition of AR discounting as a short-term debt. The structure of debts and equities of the companies engaging in factoring transactions are likely to be affected in the changes of accounting rule. I suggest that the changes in accounting provisions subsequent to Korea International Financial Reporting Standard adoption caused significant influence on the structure of firm's asset and liabilities. Due to this changes, the treatment of account receivable discounting have become critical. This paper proposes an intelligent diagnostic system for estimating negative impact on stock value with self-organizing maps and case based reasoning. To validate the usefulness of this proposed model, real data was analyzed. In order to get the significance of this proposed model, several models were compared to the research model. I found out that this proposed model provides satisfactory results with compared models.

Recommender Systems using Structural Hole and Collaborative Filtering (구조적 공백과 협업필터링을 이용한 추천시스템)

  • Kim, Mingun;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.107-120
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    • 2014
  • This study proposes a novel recommender system using the structural hole analysis to reflect qualitative and emotional information in recommendation process. Although collaborative filtering (CF) is known as the most popular recommendation algorithm, it has some limitations including scalability and sparsity problems. The scalability problem arises when the volume of users and items become quite large. It means that CF cannot scale up due to large computation time for finding neighbors from the user-item matrix as the number of users and items increases in real-world e-commerce sites. Sparsity is a common problem of most recommender systems due to the fact that users generally evaluate only a small portion of the whole items. In addition, the cold-start problem is the special case of the sparsity problem when users or items newly added to the system with no ratings at all. When the user's preference evaluation data is sparse, two users or items are unlikely to have common ratings, and finally, CF will predict ratings using a very limited number of similar users. Moreover, it may produces biased recommendations because similarity weights may be estimated using only a small portion of rating data. In this study, we suggest a novel limitation of the conventional CF. The limitation is that CF does not consider qualitative and emotional information about users in the recommendation process because it only utilizes user's preference scores of the user-item matrix. To address this novel limitation, this study proposes cluster-indexing CF model with the structural hole analysis for recommendations. In general, the structural hole means a location which connects two separate actors without any redundant connections in the network. The actor who occupies the structural hole can easily access to non-redundant, various and fresh information. Therefore, the actor who occupies the structural hole may be a important person in the focal network and he or she may be the representative person in the focal subgroup in the network. Thus, his or her characteristics may represent the general characteristics of the users in the focal subgroup. In this sense, we can distinguish friends and strangers of the focal user utilizing the structural hole analysis. This study uses the structural hole analysis to select structural holes in subgroups as an initial seeds for a cluster analysis. First, we gather data about users' preference ratings for items and their social network information. For gathering research data, we develop a data collection system. Then, we perform structural hole analysis and find structural holes of social network. Next, we use these structural holes as cluster centroids for the clustering algorithm. Finally, this study makes recommendations using CF within user's cluster, and compare the recommendation performances of comparative models. For implementing experiments of the proposed model, we composite the experimental results from two experiments. The first experiment is the structural hole analysis. For the first one, this study employs a software package for the analysis of social network data - UCINET version 6. The second one is for performing modified clustering, and CF using the result of the cluster analysis. We develop an experimental system using VBA (Visual Basic for Application) of Microsoft Excel 2007 for the second one. This study designs to analyzing clustering based on a novel similarity measure - Pearson correlation between user preference rating vectors for the modified clustering experiment. In addition, this study uses 'all-but-one' approach for the CF experiment. In order to validate the effectiveness of our proposed model, we apply three comparative types of CF models to the same dataset. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the other comparative models. In especial, the proposed model significantly performs better than two comparative modes with the cluster analysis from the statistical significance test. However, the difference between the proposed model and the naive model does not have statistical significance.

Analyzing the Issue Life Cycle by Mapping Inter-Period Issues (기간별 이슈 매핑을 통한 이슈 생명주기 분석 방법론)

  • Lim, Myungsu;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.25-41
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    • 2014
  • Recently, the number of social media users has increased rapidly because of the prevalence of smart devices. As a result, the amount of real-time data has been increasing exponentially, which, in turn, is generating more interest in using such data to create added value. For instance, several attempts are being made to analyze the relevant search keywords that are frequently used on new portal sites and the words that are regularly mentioned on various social media in order to identify social issues. The technique of "topic analysis" is employed in order to identify topics and themes from a large amount of text documents. As one of the most prevalent applications of topic analysis, the technique of issue tracking investigates changes in the social issues that are identified through topic analysis. Currently, traditional issue tracking is conducted by identifying the main topics of documents that cover an entire period at the same time and analyzing the occurrence of each topic by the period of occurrence. However, this traditional issue tracking approach has two limitations. First, when a new period is included, topic analysis must be repeated for all the documents of the entire period, rather than being conducted only on the new documents of the added period. This creates practical limitations in the form of significant time and cost burdens. Therefore, this traditional approach is difficult to apply in most applications that need to perform an analysis on the additional period. Second, the issue is not only generated and terminated constantly, but also one issue can sometimes be distributed into several issues or multiple issues can be integrated into one single issue. In other words, each issue is characterized by a life cycle that consists of the stages of creation, transition (merging and segmentation), and termination. The existing issue tracking methods do not address the connection and effect relationship between these issues. The purpose of this study is to overcome the two limitations of the existing issue tracking method, one being the limitation regarding the analysis method and the other being the limitation involving the lack of consideration of the changeability of the issues. Let us assume that we perform multiple topic analysis for each multiple period. Then it is essential to map issues of different periods in order to trace trend of issues. However, it is not easy to discover connection between issues of different periods because the issues derived for each period mutually contain heterogeneity. In this study, to overcome these limitations without having to analyze the entire period's documents simultaneously, the analysis can be performed independently for each period. In addition, we performed issue mapping to link the identified issues of each period. An integrated approach on each details period was presented, and the issue flow of the entire integrated period was depicted in this study. Thus, as the entire process of the issue life cycle, including the stages of creation, transition (merging and segmentation), and extinction, is identified and examined systematically, the changeability of the issues was analyzed in this study. The proposed methodology is highly efficient in terms of time and cost, as it sufficiently considered the changeability of the issues. Further, the results of this study can be used to adapt the methodology to a practical situation. By applying the proposed methodology to actual Internet news, the potential practical applications of the proposed methodology are analyzed. Consequently, the proposed methodology was able to extend the period of the analysis and it could follow the course of progress of each issue's life cycle. Further, this methodology can facilitate a clearer understanding of complex social phenomena using topic analysis.

Membership Fluidity and Knowledge Collaboration in Virtual Communities: A Multilateral Approach to Membership Fluidity (가상 커뮤니티의 멤버 유동성과 지식 협업: 멤버 유동성에 대한 다각적 접근)

  • Park, Hyun-jung;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.19-47
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    • 2015
  • In this era of knowledge economy, a variety of virtual communities are proliferating for the purpose of knowledge creation and utilization. Since the voluntary contributions of members are the essential source of knowledge, member turnover can have significant implications on the survival and success of virtual communities. However, there is a dearth of research on the effect of membership turnover and even the method of measurement for membership turnover is left unclear in virtual communities. In a traditional context, membership turnover is calculated as the ratio of the number of departing members to the average number of members for a given time period. In virtual communities, while the influx of newcomers can be clearly measured, the magnitude of departure is elusive since explicit withdrawals are seldom executed. In addition, there doesn't exist a common way to determine the average number of community members who return and contribute intermittently at will. This study initially examines the limitations in applying the concept of traditional turnover to virtual communities, and proposes five membership fluidity measures based on a preliminary analysis of editing behaviors of 2,978 featured articles in English Wikipedia. Subsequently, this work investigates the relationships between three selected membership fluidity measures and group collaboration performance, reflecting a moderating effect dependent on work characteristic. We obtained the following results: First, membership turnover relates to collaboration efficiency in a right-shortened U-shaped manner, with a moderating effect from work characteristic; given the same turnover rate, the promotion likelihood for a more professional task is lower than that for a less professional task, and the likelihood difference diminishes as the turnover rate increases. Second, contribution period relates to collaboration efficiency in a left-shortened U-shaped manner, with a moderating effect from work characteristic; the marginal performance change per unit change of contribution period is greater for a less professional task. Third, the number of new participants per month relates to collaboration efficiency in a left-shortened reversed U-shaped manner, for which the moderating effect from work characteristic appears to be insignificant.

The Effects of Customer Product Review on Social Presence in Personalized Recommender Systems (개인화 추천시스템에서 고객 제품 리뷰가 사회적 실재감에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Jae-Won;Lee, Hong-Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.115-130
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    • 2011
  • Many online stores bring features that can build trust in their customers. More so, the number of products or content services on online stores has been increasing rapidly. Hence, personalization on online stores is considered to be an important technology to companies and customers. Recommender systems that provide favorable products and customer product reviews to users are the most commonly used features in this purpose. There are many studies to that investigated the relationship between social presence as an antecedent of trust and provision of recommender systems or customer product reviews. Many online stores have made efforts to increase perceived social presence of their customers through customer reviews, recommender systems, and analyzing associations among products. Primarily because social presence can increase customer trust or reuse intention for online stores. However, there were few studies that investigated the interactions between recommendation type, product type and provision of customer product reviews on social presence. Therefore, one of the purposes of this study is to identify the effects of personalized recommender systems and compare the role of customer reviews with product types. This study performed an experiment to see these interactions. Experimental web pages were developed with $2{\times}2$ factorial setting based on how to provide social presence to users with customer reviews and two product types such as hedonic and utilitarian. The hedonic type was a ringtone chosen from Nate.com while the utilitarian was a TOEIC study aid book selected from Yes24.com. To conduct the experiment, web based experiments were conducted for the participants who have been shopping on the online stores. Participants were a total of 240 and 30% of the participants had the chance of getting the presents. We found out that social presence increased for hedonic products when personalized recommendations were given compared to non.personalized recommendations. Although providing customer reviews for two product types did not significantly increase social presence, provision of customer product reviews for hedonic (ringtone) increased perceived social presence. Otherwise, provision of customer product reviews could not increase social presence when the systems recommend utilitarian products (TOEIC study.aid books). Therefore, it appears that the effects of increasing perceived social presence with customer reviews have a difference for product types. In short, the role of customer reviews could be different based on which product types were considered by customers when they are making a decision related to purchasing on the online stores. Additionally, there were no differences for increasing perceived social presence when providing customer reviews. Our participants might have focused on how recommendations had been provided and what products were recommended because our developed systems were providing recommendations after participants rating their preferences. Thus, the effects of customer reviews could appear more clearly if our participants had actual purchase opportunity for the recommendations. Personalized recommender systems can increase social presence of customers more than nonpersonalized recommender systems by using user preference. Online stores could find out how they can increase perceived social presence and satisfaction of their customers when customers want to find the proper products with recommender systems and customer reviews. In addition, the role of customer reviews of the personalized recommendations can be different based on types of the recommended products. Even if this study conducted two product types such as hedonic and utilitarian, the results revealed that customer reviews for hedonic increased social presence of customers more than customer reviews for utilitarian. Thus, online stores need to consider the role of providing customer reviews with highly personalized information based on their product types when they develop the personalized recommender systems.

Social Network Analysis for the Effective Adoption of Recommender Systems (추천시스템의 효과적 도입을 위한 소셜네트워크 분석)

  • Park, Jong-Hak;Cho, Yoon-Ho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.305-316
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    • 2011
  • Recommender system is the system which, by using automated information filtering technology, recommends products or services to the customers who are likely to be interested in. Those systems are widely used in many different Web retailers such as Amazon.com, Netfix.com, and CDNow.com. Various recommender systems have been developed. Among them, Collaborative Filtering (CF) has been known as the most successful and commonly used approach. CF identifies customers whose tastes are similar to those of a given customer, and recommends items those customers have liked in the past. Numerous CF algorithms have been developed to increase the performance of recommender systems. However, the relative performances of CF algorithms are known to be domain and data dependent. It is very time-consuming and expensive to implement and launce a CF recommender system, and also the system unsuited for the given domain provides customers with poor quality recommendations that make them easily annoyed. Therefore, predicting in advance whether the performance of CF recommender system is acceptable or not is practically important and needed. In this study, we propose a decision making guideline which helps decide whether CF is adoptable for a given application with certain transaction data characteristics. Several previous studies reported that sparsity, gray sheep, cold-start, coverage, and serendipity could affect the performance of CF, but the theoretical and empirical justification of such factors is lacking. Recently there are many studies paying attention to Social Network Analysis (SNA) as a method to analyze social relationships among people. SNA is a method to measure and visualize the linkage structure and status focusing on interaction among objects within communication group. CF analyzes the similarity among previous ratings or purchases of each customer, finds the relationships among the customers who have similarities, and then uses the relationships for recommendations. Thus CF can be modeled as a social network in which customers are nodes and purchase relationships between customers are links. Under the assumption that SNA could facilitate an exploration of the topological properties of the network structure that are implicit in transaction data for CF recommendations, we focus on density, clustering coefficient, and centralization which are ones of the most commonly used measures to capture topological properties of the social network structure. While network density, expressed as a proportion of the maximum possible number of links, captures the density of the whole network, the clustering coefficient captures the degree to which the overall network contains localized pockets of dense connectivity. Centralization reflects the extent to which connections are concentrated in a small number of nodes rather than distributed equally among all nodes. We explore how these SNA measures affect the performance of CF performance and how they interact to each other. Our experiments used sales transaction data from H department store, one of the well?known department stores in Korea. Total 396 data set were sampled to construct various types of social networks. The dependant variable measuring process consists of three steps; analysis of customer similarities, construction of a social network, and analysis of social network patterns. We used UCINET 6.0 for SNA. The experiments conducted the 3-way ANOVA which employs three SNA measures as dependant variables, and the recommendation accuracy measured by F1-measure as an independent variable. The experiments report that 1) each of three SNA measures affects the recommendation accuracy, 2) the density's effect to the performance overrides those of clustering coefficient and centralization (i.e., CF adoption is not a good decision if the density is low), and 3) however though the density is low, the performance of CF is comparatively good when the clustering coefficient is low. We expect that these experiment results help firms decide whether CF recommender system is adoptable for their business domain with certain transaction data characteristics.

A Study on Automatic Classification Model of Documents Based on Korean Standard Industrial Classification (한국표준산업분류를 기준으로 한 문서의 자동 분류 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Seong;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Yoo, Hyoung Sun
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.221-241
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    • 2018
  • As we enter the knowledge society, the importance of information as a new form of capital is being emphasized. The importance of information classification is also increasing for efficient management of digital information produced exponentially. In this study, we tried to automatically classify and provide tailored information that can help companies decide to make technology commercialization. Therefore, we propose a method to classify information based on Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC), which indicates the business characteristics of enterprises. The classification of information or documents has been largely based on machine learning, but there is not enough training data categorized on the basis of KSIC. Therefore, this study applied the method of calculating similarity between documents. Specifically, a method and a model for presenting the most appropriate KSIC code are proposed by collecting explanatory texts of each code of KSIC and calculating the similarity with the classification object document using the vector space model. The IPC data were collected and classified by KSIC. And then verified the methodology by comparing it with the KSIC-IPC concordance table provided by the Korean Intellectual Property Office. As a result of the verification, the highest agreement was obtained when the LT method, which is a kind of TF-IDF calculation formula, was applied. At this time, the degree of match of the first rank matching KSIC was 53% and the cumulative match of the fifth ranking was 76%. Through this, it can be confirmed that KSIC classification of technology, industry, and market information that SMEs need more quantitatively and objectively is possible. In addition, it is considered that the methods and results provided in this study can be used as a basic data to help the qualitative judgment of experts in creating a linkage table between heterogeneous classification systems.

Examination of the Current Situations of Security Dogs and it's Development Plans (경호탐지견의 운용실태 및 발전방안)

  • Park, Hyung-Kyu;Kim, Doo-Hyun
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.14
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    • pp.215-234
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    • 2007
  • Our country security industry 1960's service expense of the beginning U.S. army unit it accomplishes the growth which is quick with start, currently about 2,500 triumph the security enterprises which it goes over are being active. But the majority in these enterprise about lower cotton can a forever characteristic with pressure and the manpower civil official ability insufficient back of faithlessness management and capital power. To sleep with afterwords it presents the security dogs deployment plan for an efficient security together from the research which it sees hereupon and it does. First, it cultivates the domestic mountain progress dog which is a breed which is suitable with the security dogs and the shovel flesh dog back with the security dogs. Specially the Jindo of the breed which is excellent training which is suitable in task of the security dogs it leads and if it uses appropriately, it industrializes our specific the Jindo and protection there is a possibility of getting the effect which falls to also the gist which it rears rightly. It cultivate the second, security dogs and it magnifies training. The security dogs consequently is it will be able to accomplish the task above 2 branches to training method. Namely, after finishing obedience training, it is to be in security activity it will execute guard or detection back special training which is suitable in task and it will be able to commit. Third, it uses the security dogs which is trained rightly in task. The security dogs the adult escorts, facility expense, the explosive and narcotic drug detection, it will be able to use with the other blind man guidance dogs back. The narcotic drug detection dogs which currently is used specially technique intelligence anger, when considering the tendency of the narcotic drug smuggling offense field which becomes diversification that the role very it is important is a possibility of saying at day. It cultivate a fourth, escort relation specialty manpower and it improves the breed of the security dogs. The hazard which cultivate the security dogs use necessary personnel the breed of security dogs, the security dogs training center it opens the security crane relation subject of the college which stands and (university) it improves it establishes and training which is suitable in task it is to do to execute letting in the training map company. Specially, the hazard which improves the breed of security dogs in the progress mind quality which stands against the portion where the breed improvement is demanded as the portion where the internal organs research and investment are necessary sees. The security dogs compares in labor cost and the expense holds few, if it uses the our specific domestic dogs it will be able to use efficiently in the task which is various it solves the multi branch plans for wisly with the security dogs industrial development security of course contemporary history sliced raw fish sees demands compared to being immediacy and the life which is happy business the place where it does it sees it will be able to contribute a lot as.

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GIS-based Market Analysis and Sales Management System : The Case of a Telecommunication Company (시장분석 및 영업관리 역량 강화를 위한 통신사의 GIS 적용 사례)

  • Chang, Nam-Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.61-75
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    • 2011
  • A Geographic Information System(GIS) is a system that captures, stores, analyzes, manages and presents data with reference to geographic location data. In the later 1990s and earlier 2000s it was limitedly used in government sectors such as public utility management, urban planning, landscape architecture, and environmental contamination control. However, a growing number of open-source packages running on a range of operating systems enabled many private enterprises to explore the concept of viewing GIS-based sales and customer data over their own computer monitors. K telecommunication company has dominated the Korean telecommunication market by providing diverse services, such as high-speed internet, PSTN(Public Switched Telephone Network), VOLP (Voice Over Internet Protocol), and IPTV(Internet Protocol Television). Even though the telecommunication market in Korea is huge, the competition between major services providers is growing more fierce than ever before. Service providers struggled to acquire as many new customers as possible, attempted to cross sell more products to their regular customers, and made more efforts on retaining the best customers by offering unprecedented benefits. Most service providers including K telecommunication company tried to adopt the concept of customer relationship management(CRM), and analyze customer's demographic and transactional data statistically in order to understand their customer's behavior. However, managing customer information has still remained at the basic level, and the quality and the quantity of customer data were not enough not only to understand the customers but also to design a strategy for marketing and sales. For example, the currently used 3,074 legal regional divisions, which are originally defined by the government, were too broad to calculate sub-regional customer's service subscription and cancellation ratio. Additional external data such as house size, house price, and household demographics are also needed to measure sales potential. Furthermore, making tables and reports were time consuming and they were insufficient to make a clear judgment about the market situation. In 2009, this company needed a dramatic shift in the way marketing and sales activities, and finally developed a dedicated GIS_based market analysis and sales management system. This system made huge improvement in the efficiency with which the company was able to manage and organize all customer and sales related information, and access to those information easily and visually. After the GIS information system was developed, and applied to marketing and sales activities at the corporate level, the company was reported to increase sales and market share substantially. This was due to the fact that by analyzing past market and sales initiatives, creating sales potential, and targeting key markets, the system could make suggestions and enable the company to focus its resources on the demographics most likely to respond to the promotion. This paper reviews subjective and unclear marketing and sales activities that K telecommunication company operated, and introduces the whole process of developing the GIS information system. The process consists of the following 5 modules : (1) Customer profile cleansing and standardization, (2) Internal/External DB enrichment, (3) Segmentation of 3,074 legal regions into 46,590 sub_regions called blocks, (4) GIS data mart design, and (5) GIS system construction. The objective of this case study is to emphasize the need of GIS system and how it works in the private enterprises by reviewing the development process of the K company's market analysis and sales management system. We hope that this paper suggest valuable guideline to companies that consider introducing or constructing a GIS information system.