• Title/Summary/Keyword: budget estimate

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A Study on the Relationship between the Spatial Cluster Patterns of Male Suicide Rate and the Regional Characteristics in South Korea (남성 자살률의 공간 군집패턴 변화와 지역특성요인의 관계 분석)

  • Choi, Soyoung;Lee, Kwang-Soo
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.312-322
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    • 2019
  • Background: Since 2003, Korea has consistently shown the highest suicide rate among the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, and suicide remains the major cause of death. In particular, men are 2-3 times more likely to commit suicide than women, which called the 'gender paradox of suicide.' The areas with frequent suicide have spatially clustered patterns because suicide with a social contagion spreads around the neighborhood. The purpose of this study was twofold. The first was to estimate the hotspot areas of age-standardized male suicide mortality from 2008 to 2015. The second was to analyze the relationship between the hotspot areas and the regional characteristics for study years. Methods: The data was collected through the Korean Statistical Information Service. The study areas were 227 si gun gu administrative districts in Korea. The hotspot area was used as a dependent variable. Socio-demographic variables (number of marriages per 1,000 population, number of divorces per 1,000 population, and urbanization rate), financial variables (financial independence and social security budget), and health behaviors (EuroQol-5 dimension [EQ-5D], and depression experience rate) were used as independents variables. Results: The hotspot areas were commonly located in Gangwon-do, Chungcheongnam-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do, and Chungceongbuk-do. According to the results of panel logit regression, the number of divorces per 1,000 population, social security budget, and EQ-5D were statistically significant variables. Conclusion: The results of hotspot analysis showed the need for establishing a prevention zone of suicide using hotspot areas. Also, medical resources could be considered to be preferentially placed in the prevention zone of suicide. This study could be used as basic data for health policymakers to establish a suicide-related policy.

Drainage Performance of Various Subsurface Drain Materials- (배수개선공법개발에 관한 연구(I) -각종 지하배수용 암거재료의 배수성능-)

  • 김철회;이근후;유시조;서원명
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.104-120
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    • 1979
  • I. Title of the Study Studies on the Development of Improved Subsurface Drainage Methods. -Drainage Performance of Various Subsurface Drain Materials- II. Object of the Study Studies were carried out to select the drain material having the highest performance of drainage; And to develop the water budget model which is necessary for the planning of the drainage project and the establishment of water management standards in the water-logged paddy field. III. Content and Scope of the Study 1. The experiment was carried out in the laboratory by using a sand tank model. The drainage performance of various drain materials was compared evaluated. 2. A water budget model was established. Various parameters necessary for the model were investigated by analyzing existing data and measured data from the experimental field. The adaptability of the model was evaluated by comparing the estimated values to the field data. IV. Results and Recommendations 1. A corrugated tube enveloped with gravel or mat showed the highest drainage performance among the eight materials submmitted for the experiment. 2. The drainage performance of the long cement tile(50 cm long) was higher than that of the short cement tile(25 cm long). 3. Rice bran was superior to gravel in its' drain performance. 4. No difference was shown between a grave envelope and a P.V.C. wool mat in their performance of drainage. Continues investigation is needed to clarify the envelope performance. 5. All the results described above were obtained from the laboratory tests. A field test is recommended to confirm the results obtained. 6. As a water balance model of a given soil profile, the soil moisture depletion D, could be represented as follows; $$D=\Sigma\limit_{t=1}^{n}(Et-R_{\ell}-I+W_d)..........(17)$$ 7. Among the various empirical formulae for potential evapotranspiration, Penman's formular was best fit to the data observed with the evaporation pans in Jinju area. High degree of positive correlation between Penman;s predicted data and observed data was confirmed. The regression equation was Y=1.4X-22.86, where Y represents evaporation rate from small pan, in mm/100 days, and X represents potential evapotranspiration rate estimated by Penman's formular. The coefficient of correlation was r=0.94.** 8. To estimate evapotranspiration in the field, the consumptive use coefficient, Kc, was introduced. Kc was defined by the function of the characteristics of the crop soil as follows; $Kc=Kco{\cdot}Ka+Ks..........(20)$ where, Kco, Ka ans Ks represents the crop coefficient, the soil moisture coefficient, and the correction coefficient, respectively. The value of Kco and Ka was obtained from the Fig.16 and the Fig.17, respectively. And, if $Kco{\cdot}Ka{\geq}1.0,$ then Ks=0, otherwise, Ks value was estimated by using the relation; $Ks=1-Kco{\cdot}Ka$. 9. Into type formular, $r_t=\frac{R_{24}}{24}(\frac{b}{\sqrt{t}+a})$, was the best fit one to estimate the probable rainfall intensity when daily rainfall and rainfall durations are given as input data, The coefficient a and b are shown on the Table 16. 10. Japanese type formular, $I_t=\frac{b}{\sqrt{t}+a}$, was the best fit one to estimate the probable rainfall intensity when the rainfall duration only was given. The coefficient a and b are shown on the Table 17. 11. Effective rainfall, Re, was estimated by using following relationships; Re=D, if $R-D\geq}0$, otherwise, Re=R. 12. The difference of rainfall amount from soil moisture depletion was considered as the amount of drainage required. In this case, when Wd=O, Equation 24 was used, otherwise two to three days of lag time was considered and correction was made by use of storage coefficient. 13. To evaluate the model, measured data and estimated data was compared, and relative error was computed. 5.5 percent The relative error was 5.5 percent. 14. By considering the water budget in Jinju area, it was shown that the evaporation amount was greater than the rainfall during period of October to March in next year. This was the behind reasonning that the improvement of surface drainage system is needed in Jinju area.

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The Estimation of Domestic Construction Technology Full-Text Services using Tobit Model (Tobit 모형을 이용한 국내 건설기술 원문서비스 가치 추정)

  • Jeong, Seong-Yun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.656-662
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    • 2016
  • We have provided a variety of domestic construction technology related full-text services through the Construction Technology Digital Library system since 2001. CODIL is a system that services the database related to construction technology data. On the other hand, there is growing demand for DB every year, but the required budget is shrinking. Therefore, this study investigated the satisfaction to effectively service the construction technique-related full-text with a limited budget. The monetary value of full-text to express satisfaction with the quantified value was estimated using the Tobit model. The Tobit model is used as a contingent valuation method to estimate the value of non-market goods. This model is the limited dependent variable regression model to observations by censoring the limit of the left side or right side so that a biased outlier is not reflected in the willingness to pay. A survey was conducted by sampling 312 respondents. The mean, median, truncating the willingness of payment were calculated for the six types of the full-text services using the Tobit model. The statistically significant variables affecting the willingness to pay for the full-text services were identified. The mean value of per the full-text service was estimated to be 46,530 won. The significance of this study was to use the Tobit model to estimate the value of the construction technology-related full-text services for the first time in Korea.

Estimation of Life Expectancy and Budget Demands based on Maintenance Strategy (도로포장 유지보수 전략에 따른 기대수명과 보수비용산정)

  • Han, Dae-Seok;Do, Myung-Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.4D
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    • pp.345-356
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    • 2012
  • Road pavement requires repetitive maintenance works to maintain satisfactory service level to the public. However, the repetitive maintenance works upon deteriorated pavement structure make negative effects to deterioration speed. It often leads to inefficient use of limited budget. For that reason, the pavements require reconstruction work to recover their original performance. Recently, construction demands in the Korean national highway have already been reached to maximum level, and the aged pavements start to demand much more reconstruction works. However, in the real world, road agencies have often been confused when they determine maintenance design for such aged road sections due to budget constraint. It is because there is no reliable long-term maintenance strategy that supports their decision making. To support their decision making, this paper aimed to suggest the best maintenance strategy considering changing process of pavement performance by repetitive maintenance works. As an analysis method, probability distribution and hazard function to estimate the life expectancy were adopted, and then the results were used for long-term life cycle cost analysis with deterministic or Monte-Carlo method under various scenarios. As an empirical study, the Korean national highway data that has long-maintenance history data since 1986 has been applied. Last, this paper considered quality assurance of maintenance work to improve maintenance quality. These could be important information as a part of long-term maintenance strategy of pavement.

Nitrogen Budget of South Korea in 2008: Evaluation of Non-point Source Pollution and $N_2O$ Emission (2008년도 대한민국 질소수지 연구: 비점오염증가 및 $N_2O$발생량산정)

  • Nam, Yock-Hyoun;An, Sang-Woo;Park, Jae-Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.103-112
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    • 2011
  • The main objective of this research was to estimate Nitrogen budget of South Korea in 2008. Input-output budgets for nitrogen fluxes were categorized into three sections: cities, agricultural area, and forest. Chemical and biological fixation, dry and wet deposition, imported food and feed were used as the nitrogen input. Crop uptake, volatilization, denitrification, leaching, runoff, and forest consumption were used as the nitrogen outputs. Annual total nitrogen input was 1,294,155 ton/yr, and output was 632,228 ton/yr. Comparison with a previous research in 2005 indicates that nitrogen input was decreased by 1.9% due to the decrease in nitrogen fertilizer while nitrogen output was decreased by 6.3%. Non-point source (NPS) pollution was also estimated by mass balance approach, which increased by 22% than the previous research in 2005. The emission of nitrous oxide ($N_2O$) caused by denitrification was newly examined in this research. About 8,289 ton/yr of $N_2O$ was released from agriculture area and domestic wastewater treatment plant.

Direction for Improving Cost Estimation and Management of Construction Projects : Comparing to Australian System (건설공사 공사비 예측 및 관리기술 발전방향 : 호주 사례를 중심으로)

  • Ji, Sae-Hyun;Park, Moon-Seo;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Yoon, You-Sang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.170-181
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    • 2008
  • Cost of construction project have to be estimated based on drawing before execution. Cost estimate and check would be performed numerously for preparing general outline of requirements and determining the budget at conceptual planning stage, for obtaining decision on every matter related to design, specification, construction and cost at design stage, and for predicting bidding cost. Thus, importance of cost estimation cannot emphasize too much in construction. However, there are lack of standard estimation method, process, and cost analysis method, that square foot estimation method is as used as eyer, in Korea. Thus, This research present the direction for improving cost estimation and management in construction; It is demanded that establishing standard data base methodology, multi-level database model CUBE, and standard cost planning process, choosing cost estimation methodology according to objectives and cost planning process, and making more experts.

Evidence-based estimation of health care cost savings from the use of omega-3 supplementation among the elderly in Korea

  • Hwang, Ji-Yun;Kim, Wu Seon;Jeong, Sewon;Kwon, Oran
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.400-403
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    • 2015
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: By the year 2050, thirty-eight percent of the Korean population will be over the age of 65. Health care costs for Koreans over age 65 reached 15.4 trillion Korean won in 2011, accounting for a third of the total health care costs for the population. Chronic degenerative diseases, including coronary heart disease (CHD), drive long-term health care costs at an alarming annual rate. In the elderly population, loss of independence is one of the main reasons for this increase in health care costs. Korean heath policies place a high priority on the prevention of CHD because it is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. SUBJECTS/METHODS: This evidence-based study aims to the estimate potential health care cost savings resulting from the daily intake of omega-3 fatty acid supplementation. Potential cost savings associated with a reduced risk of CHD and the medical costs potentially avoided through risk reduction, including hospitalizations and physician services, were estimated using a Congressional Budget Office cost accounting methodology. RESULTS: The estimate of the seven-year (2005-2011) net savings in medical costs resulting from a reduction in the incidence of CHD among the elderly population through the daily use of omega-3 fatty acids was approximately 210 billion Korean won. Approximately 92,997 hospitalizations due to CHD could be avoided over the seven years. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that omega-3 supplementation in older individuals may yield substantial cost-savings by reducing the risk of CHD. It should be noted that additional health and cost benefits need to be revisited and re-evaluated as more is known about possible data sources or as new data become available.

Prediction of Life Expectancy of Asphalt Road Pavement by Region (아스팔트 도로포장의 균열률에 대한 지역별 기대수명 추정)

  • Song, Hyun Yeop;Choi, Seung Hyun;Han, Dae Seok;Do, Myung Sik
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.417-428
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    • 2021
  • Since future maintenance cost estimation of infrastructure involves uncertainty, it is important to make use of a failure prediction model. However, it is difficult for local governments to develop accurate failure prediction models applicable to infrastructure due to a lack of budget and expertise. Therefore, this study estimated the life expectancy of asphalt road pavement of national highways using the Bayesian Markov Mixture Hazard model. In addition, in order to accurately estimate life expectancy, environmental variables such as traffic volume, ESAL (Equivalent Single Axle Loads), SNP (Structural Number of Pavement), meteorological conditions, and de-icing material usage were applied to retain reliability of the estimation results. As a result, life expectancy was estimated from at least 13.09 to 19.61 years by region. By using this approach, it is expected that it will be possible to estimate future maintenance cost considering local failure characteristics.

Estimation of Ecosystem Metabolism Using High-frequency DO and Water Temperature Sensor Data in Daecheong Lake (고빈도 DO 및 수온 센서 자료를 이용한 대청호 생태계 신진대사 산정)

  • Kim, Sung-Jin;Chung, Se-Woong;Park, Hyungseok;Oh, Jungkuk;Park, Daeyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.579-590
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    • 2018
  • The lakes' metabolism bears important information for the assessment of the carbon budget due to the accumulation or loss of carbon in the lake as well as the dynamics of the food webs through primary production. A lake-scale metabolism is evaluated by Gross Primary Production (GPP), Ecosystem Respiration (R), and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP), which is the difference between the first two values. Methods for estimating GPP and R are based on the levels carbon and oxygen. Estimation of carbon is expensive because of the use of radioactive materials which requires a high degree of proficiency. The purpose of this study was to estimate Lake Daecheong ecosystem metabolism using high frequency water temperature data and DO measurement sensor, widely utilized in the field of water quality monitoring, and to evaluate the possibility of using the application method. High frequency data was collected at intervals of 10 minutes from September to December 2017 by installing a thermistor chain and a DO sensor in downstream of Daechung Dam. The data was then used to estimate GPP, R and NEP using the R public program LakeMetabolizer, and other metabolism models (mle, ols, kalman, bookkeep). Calculations of gas exchange coefficient methods (cole, crusius, heiskanen, macIntyre, read, soloviev, vachon) were compared. According to the result, Lake Daecheong has some deviation based on the application method, but it was generally estimated that the NEP value is negative and acts as a source of atmospheric carbon in a heterotrophic system. Although the high frequency sensor data used in this study had negative and positive GPP and R values during the physical mixing process, they can be used to monitor real-time metabolic changes in the ecosystem if these problems are solved.

MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION APPROACH FOR PRODUCTIVITY ESTIMATION OF BULLDOZERS

  • Abbas Rashidi;Hoda Rashidi Nejad;Amir H. Behzadan
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1140-1147
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    • 2009
  • Productivity measurement of construction machinery is a significant issue faced by many contractors especially those involved in earthwork projects. Traditionally, equipment production rate has been estimated using data available in manufacturers' catalogues, results of previous construction projects, or personal experience and assessments of the site personnel. Actual production rates obtained after the completion of a project demonstrate the fact that most of these methods fail to provide accurate results and as a direct consequence, may lead to unrealistic project cost estimations prepared by the contractors. What makes this more critical is that in most cases, inadequate cost estimations lead the entire project to exceed the initial budget or fall behind the schedule. In this paper, a linear regression method to estimate bulldozer productivity is introduced. This method has been developed using SPSS-16 software package. The presented method is used to estimate the productivity of Komatsu D-155A1 series which is commonly used in many earthmoving operations in Iran. The data required for the numerical analysis has been collected from actual site observation and productivity measurement of 60 pieces of D-155A1 series currently being used in several earthmoving projects in Iran. Comparative analysis of the output data of the presented regression method and the existing productivity tables provided by the manufacturer shows that when compared to the actual productivity data collected on the jobsite, a significant increase in accuracy and a remarkable reduction of data variance can be achieved by using the presented regression method.

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