• Communications of the Korean Mathematical Society
• /
• v.18 no.4
• /
• pp.725-736
• /
• 2003

Let $A_1,{\;}A_2,...,A_n$ be a sequence of events on a given probability space. Let $m_n$ be the number of those $A'_{j}s$ which occur. Upper bounds of P($m_n{\;}\geq{\;}1) are obtained by means of probability of consecutive terms which reduce the number of terms in binomial moments $S_2,n,S_3,n$ and $S_4,n$.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
• /
• v.43 no.2
• /
• pp.41-49
• /
• 2012

This study aimed to estimate the economic value of the recreational fishing in the Jeonnam marine ranching area as a part of the total socioeconomic evaluation of the Jeonnam marine ranching program. A travel cost method was applied to the estimation of economic value of the recreational fishing in the Jeonnam marine ranching area and input variables included annual fishing trip days, average travel cost per trip, average catch amount, monthly income, marriage, age, and personal perception on the marine ranching program. In the analysis, due to its characteristic of count data, both poisson model and negative binomial model were used. Model results indicated that a negative binomial model was statistically more suitable than the poisson model as the overdispersion problem occurred in the poisson model. All signs of the estimated parameters were estimated as previous studies showed. Based on the results, the economic value per trip of the recreational fishing in the Jeonnam marine ranching area was estimated to be 145,000 won and the annual total economic value of the recreational fishing in the Jeonnam marine ranching area was analyzed to be 2,514,000 won. In addition, the change of total value by catch rate showed that the economic value could be increased by 180,900 won as the catch increased by one kilogram.

• Ocean and Polar Research
• /
• v.36 no.3
• /
• pp.289-302
• /
• 2014

This paper aims to evaluate the indirect economic damages to anglers of the marine recreational charter caused by marine pollution associated with the Herbei Spirit vessel, which spilled 12,547 kl of crude oil in Taean coastal areas in December 2007. In order to evaluate the indirect cost to anglers of the charter fishing, consumer surplus for charter fishing is estimated using a Poisson model (PM), a negative binomial model (NBM), a truncated Poisson model (TPM), and a truncated negative binomial model (TNBM), which account for the characteristics of count data (non-negative discrete data), for individual travel cost method (ITCM). Because of over-dispersion problem in PM and TPM, NBM and TNBM are considered to be more appropriate statistically. All parameters such as income, fishing careers, travel cost and catch that are estimated are statistically significant and theoretically valid. Based on TNBM results, consumer surplus per trip and per person was estimated to be 277 thousand won, total consumer surplus per person and per year about 2.3 million won, and the marginal effect of consumer surplus on % changes in catch rate is about 33 thousand won. The consumer surplus was converted into total indirect economic damages for aggregation which are evaluated to be 125 billion won, reflecting the number of anglers and damage rate.

• Ocean and Polar Research
• /
• v.39 no.1
• /
• pp.51-59
• /
• 2017

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the economic value of beaches which are the major part of the East Sea Coast. ITCM (Individual Travel Cost Method) is applied to estimate the economic value of its beaches using Poisson, negative binomial, truncated Poisson and truncated negative binomial models. The consumer surplus during length of stay per capita is 214,088 won in beaches overall on the East Sea Coast, 206,398 won in Gangwon-do beaches and 271,171 won in Gyeongbuk/Ulsan beaches. Annual total economic value of its beaches considering the number of visitors at beaches is 6,269 billion won (3,970 billion won in Kangwondo beaches, 2,299 billion won in Kyungbuk/Ulsan beaches).

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
• /
• v.38 no.2
• /
• pp.79-101
• /
• 2007

The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of the Songieong Beach in Off-season, using a Individual Travel Cost Model(ITCM). Songieong Beach is located in Busan but far away from city. These days, however, the increased rate of traffic inflow to the Songieong beach and the five-day working week are reflected in the trend analysis. Moreover, people have changed psychological value. For that reason, visitors are on the increase on the beach in off-season. The ITCM is applied to estimate non-market value or environmental Good like a Contingent Valuation Method and Hedonic Price Model etc. The ITCM was derived from the Count Data Model(i.e. Poisson and Negative Binomial model). So this paper compares Poisson and negative binomial count data models to measure the tourism demands. The data for the study were collected from the Songjeong Beach on visitors over the a week from November 1 through November 23, 2006. Interviewers were instructed to interview only individuals. So the sample was taken in 113. A dependent variable that is defined on the non-negative integers and subject to sampling truncation is the result of a truncated count data process. This paper analyzes the effects of determinants on visitors' demand for exhibition using a class of maximum-likelihood regression estimators for count data from truncated samples, The count data and truncated models are used primarily to explain non-negative integer and truncation properties of tourist trips as suggested by the economic valuation literature. The results suggest that the truncated negative binomial model is improved overdispersion problem and more preferred than the other models in the study. This paper is not the same as the others. One thing is that Estimating Value of the Beach in off-season. The other thing is this study emphasizes in particular 'travel cost' that is not only monetary cost but also including opportunity cost of 'travel time'. According to the truncated negative binomial model, estimates the Consumer Surplus(CS) values per trip of about 199,754 Korean won and the total economic value was estimated to be 1,288,680 Korean won.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.31 no.6
• /
• pp.733-749
• /
• 2018

Sample selection arises as a result of the partial observability of the outcome of interest in a study. Heckman introduced a sample selection model to analyze such data and proposed a full maximum likelihood estimation method under the assumption of normality. Recently sample selection models for binomial and Poisson response variables have been proposed. Based on the theory of symmetry-modulated distribution, we extend these to a model for overdispersed count data. This type of data with no sample selection is often modeled using negative binomial distribution. Hence we propose a sample selection model for overdispersed count data using the negative binomial distribution. A real data application is employed. Simulation studies reveal that our estimation method based on profile log-likelihood is stable.

• Honam Mathematical Journal
• /
• v.5 no.1
• /
• pp.251-260
• /
• 1983

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Power Electronics
• /
• v.21 no.4
• /
• pp.328-334
• /
• 2016

This paper examines the reliability of a VSC-HVDC valve based on a modular multilevel converter (MMC) HVDC system. The main objective of this paper is to determine the redundancy of the MMC valve. Several prediction methods are introduced, but the binomial failure method is selected to be used. To determine the availability and reliability prediction of MMC valve, which comprises a DC/DC converter, a gate driver, a capacitor, and an IGBT, the failure data of the MMC module are used as the tracking data according to the experimental result. This method uses a simplified equation to find the valve redundancy by transforming the binomial function to De Moivre's formula. This method is the first to be used to find the valve margin.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
• /
• v.32 no.3
• /
• pp.127-134
• /
• 2009

RAM(Reliability, Availability, Maintainability) is important performance factor to keep combat readiness and optimize operational and maintenance cost of weapon systems. This paper discusses the method to establish RAM for combat readiness by using field failure data from similarity equipments. Operational availability is estimated from a binomial distribution function of user's operational conditions such as combat readiness preservation probability, operational rate, operational availability and total number of equipment. Reliability and maintainability is estimated from field failure data from similarity equipment to accomplish operational availability. The effectiveness of established RAM is verified through analysis of combat readiness preservation probability and mission reliability. A case study of weapon system illustrates the process of the proposed method.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
• /
• v.37 no.2
• /
• pp.151-157
• /
• 1998

Infestations of two spotted spider mite (TSSM), Tetranychus urticae Koch, on glasshouse rose (Rosa sp.) grown by an arching method, were determined by counts of the number of TSSM per leaflet in Buyeo, Chungnam Province, for a 2-yr period. Binomial sampling plans were developed based on the relationship between mean density per leaflet (m), and proportion of leaflets infested with ( T mites (PT), according to the empirical model In (m) = a+p In (-ln (1 -PT)). T was defined as tally threshold, and set to 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 mites per leaflet. Increasing sample size had little effects on the precision of the binomial sampling plan, regardless of tally threshold. However, the precision increased with higher tally thresholds. There was a negligible improvement in precision with T ) 7 mites per leaflet. T= 7 was chosen as the best tally threshold for estimating densities of TSSM based on the precision of the model. Independent data set was used to evaluate the model. The binomial model with T= 7 provided reliable predictions of mean densities of TSSM observed on the commercial glasshouse roses.