• Title/Summary/Keyword: bayesian modeling

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Automatic fire detection system using Bayesian Networks (베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 자동 화재 감지 시스템)

  • Cheong, Kwang-Ho;Ko, Byoung-Chul;Nam, Jae-Yeal
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.15B no.2
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we propose a new vision-based fire detection method for a real-life application. Most previous vision-based methods using color information and temporal variation of pixel produce frequent false alarms because they used a lot of heuristic features. Furthermore there is also computation delay for accurate fire detection. To overcome these problems, we first detected candidated fire regions by using background modeling and color model of fire. Then we made probabilistic models of fire by using a fact that fire pixel values of consecutive frames are changed constantly and applied them to a Bayesian Network. In this paper we used two level Bayesian network, which contains the intermediate nodes and uses four skewnesses for evidence at each node. Skewness of R normalized with intensity and skewnesses of three high frequency components obtained through wavelet transform. The proposed system has been successfully applied to many fire detection tasks in real world environment and distinguishes fire from moving objects having fire color.

Project Schedule Risk Assessment Based on Bayesian Nets (베이지안넷 기반의 프로젝트 일정리스크 평가)

  • Sung, Hongsuk;Park, Chulsoon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2016
  • The project schedule risk in the engineering and facility construction industry is increasingly considered as important management factor because the risks in terms of schedule or deadline may significantly affect the project cost. Especially, the project-based operating companies attempt to find the best estimate of the project completion time for use at their proposals, and therefore, usually have much interest in accurate estimation of the duration of the projects. In general, the management of projects schedule risk is achieved by modeling project schedule with PERT/CPM techniques, and then performing risk assessment with simulation such as Monte-Carlo simulation method. However, since these approaches require the accumulated executional data, which are not usually available in project-based operating company, and, further, they cannot reflect various schedule constraints, which usually are met during the project execution, the project managers have difficulty in preparing for the project risks in advance of their occurrence in the project execution. As these constraints may affect time and cost which role as the crucial evaluation factors to the quality of the project result, they must be identified and described in advance of their occurrence in the project management. This paper proposes a Bayesian Net based methodology for estimating project schedule risk by identifying and enforcing the project risks and its response plan which may occur in storage tank engineering and construction project environment. First, we translated the schedule network with the project risks and its response plan into Bayesian Net. Second, we analyzed the integrated Bayesian Net and suggested an estimate of project schedule risk with simulation approach. Finally, we applied our approach to a storage tank construction project to validate its feasibility.

Emotion Recognition Based on Facial Expression by using Context-Sensitive Bayesian Classifier (상황에 민감한 베이지안 분류기를 이용한 얼굴 표정 기반의 감정 인식)

  • Kim, Jin-Ok
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.13B no.7 s.110
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    • pp.653-662
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    • 2006
  • In ubiquitous computing that is to build computing environments to provide proper services according to user's context, human being's emotion recognition based on facial expression is used as essential means of HCI in order to make man-machine interaction more efficient and to do user's context-awareness. This paper addresses a problem of rigidly basic emotion recognition in context-sensitive facial expressions through a new Bayesian classifier. The task for emotion recognition of facial expressions consists of two steps, where the extraction step of facial feature is based on a color-histogram method and the classification step employs a new Bayesian teaming algorithm in performing efficient training and test. New context-sensitive Bayesian learning algorithm of EADF(Extended Assumed-Density Filtering) is proposed to recognize more exact emotions as it utilizes different classifier complexities for different contexts. Experimental results show an expression classification accuracy of over 91% on the test database and achieve the error rate of 10.6% by modeling facial expression as hidden context.

A Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial regression model based on Pólya-Gamma latent variables with an application to pharmaceutical data (폴랴-감마 잠재변수에 기반한 베이지안 영과잉 음이항 회귀모형: 약학 자료에의 응용)

  • Seo, Gi Tae;Hwang, Beom Seuk
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.311-325
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    • 2022
  • For count responses, the situation of excess zeros often occurs in various research fields. Zero-inflated model is a common choice for modeling such count data. Bayesian inference for the zero-inflated model has long been recognized as a hard problem because the form of conditional posterior distribution is not in closed form. Recently, however, Pillow and Scott (2012) and Polson et al. (2013) proposed a Pólya-Gamma data-augmentation strategy for logistic and negative binomial models, facilitating Bayesian inference for the zero-inflated model. We apply Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial regression model to longitudinal pharmaceutical data which have been previously analyzed by Min and Agresti (2005). To facilitate posterior sampling for longitudinal zero-inflated model, we use the Pólya-Gamma data-augmentation strategy.

Identification of acrosswind load effects on tall slender structures

  • Jae-Seung Hwang;Dae-Kun Kwon;Jungtae Noh;Ahsan Kareem
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.221-236
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    • 2023
  • The lateral component of turbulence and the vortices shed in the wake of a structure result in introducing dynamic wind load in the acrosswind direction and the resulting level of motion is typically larger than the corresponding alongwind motion for a dynamically sensitive structure. The underlying source mechanisms of the acrosswind load may be classified into motion-induced, buffeting, and Strouhal components. This study proposes a frequency domain framework to decompose the overall load into these components based on output-only measurements from wind tunnel experiments or full-scale measurements. First, the total acrosswind load is identified based on measured acceleration response by solving the inverse problem using the Kalman filter technique. The decomposition of the combined load is then performed by modeling each load component in terms of a Bayesian filtering scheme. More specifically, the decomposition and the estimation of the model parameters are accomplished using the unscented Kalman filter in the frequency domain. An aeroelastic wind tunnel experiment involving a tall circular cylinder was carried out for the validation of the proposed framework. The contribution of each load component to the acrosswind response is assessed by re-analyzing the system with the decomposed components. Through comparison of the measured and the re-analyzed response, it is demonstrated that the proposed framework effectively decomposes the total acrosswind load into components and sheds light on the overall underlying mechanism of the acrosswind load and attendant structural response. The delineation of these load components and their subsequent modeling and control may become increasingly important as tall slender buildings of the prismatic cross-section that are highly sensitive to the acrosswind load effects are increasingly being built in major metropolises.

Inverse Model Parameter Estimation Based on Sensitivity Analysis for Improvement of PM10 Forecasting (PM10 예보 향상을 위한 민감도 분석에 의한 역모델 파라메터 추정)

  • Yu, Suk Hyun;Koo, Youn Seo;Kwon, Hee Yong
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.18 no.7
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    • pp.886-894
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we conduct sensitivity analysis of parameters used for inverse modeling in order to estimate the PM10 emissions from the 16 areas in East Asia accurately. Parameters used in sensitivity analysis are R, the observational error covariance matrix, and B, a priori (background) error covariance matrix. In previous studies, it was used with the predetermined parameter empirically. Such a method, however, has difficulties in estimating an accurate emissions. Therefore, an automatically determining method for the most suitable value of R and B with an error measurement criteria and posteriori emissions accuracy is required. We determined the parameters through a sensitivity analysis, and improved the accuracy of posteriori emissions estimation. Inverse modeling methods used in the emissions estimation are pseudo inverse, NNLS (Nonnegative Least Square), and BA(Bayesian Approach). Pseudo inverse has a small error, but has negative values of emissions. In order to resolve the problem, NNLS is used. It has a unrealistic emissions, too. The problems are resolved with BA(Bayesian Approach). We showed the effectiveness and the accuracy of three methods through case studies.

Stochastic Mixture Modeling of Driving Behavior During Car Following

  • Angkititrakul, Pongtep;Miyajima, Chiyomi;Takeda, Kazuya
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2013
  • This paper presents a stochastic driver behavior modeling framework which takes into account both individual and general driving characteristics as one aggregate model. Patterns of individual driving styles are modeled using a Dirichlet process mixture model, as a non-parametric Bayesian approach which automatically selects the optimal number of model components to fit sparse observations of each particular driver's behavior. In addition, general or background driving patterns are also captured with a Gaussian mixture model using a reasonably large amount of development data from several drivers. By combining both probability distributions, the aggregate driver-dependent model can better emphasize driving characteristics of each particular driver, while also backing off to exploit general driving behavior in cases of unseen/unmatched parameter spaces from individual training observations. The proposed driver behavior model was employed to anticipate pedal operation behavior during car-following maneuvers involving several drivers on the road. The experimental results showed advantages of the combined model over the model adaptation approach.

Evaluation of Related Risk Factors in Number of Musculoskeletal Disorders Among Carpet Weavers in Iran

  • Karimi, Nasim;Moghimbeigi, Abbas;Motamedzade, Majid;Roshanaei, Ghodratollah
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.322-325
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    • 2016
  • Background: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) are a common problem among carpet weavers. This study was undertaken to introduce affecting personal and occupational factors in developing the number of MSDs among carpet weavers. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed among 862 weavers in seven towns with regard to workhouse location in urban or rural regions. Data were collected by using questionnaires that contain personal, workplace, and information tools and the modified Nordic MSDs questionnaire. Statistical analysis was performed by applying Poisson and negative binomial mixed models using a full Bayesian hierarchical approach. The deviance information criterion was used for comparison between models and model selection. Results: The majority of weavers (72%) were female and carpet weaving was the main job of 85.2% of workers. The negative binomial mixed model with lowest deviance information criterion was selected as the best model. The criteria showed the convergence of chains. Based on 95% Bayesian credible interval, the main job and weaving type variables statistically affected the number of MSDs, but variables age, sex, weaving comb, work experience, and carpet weaving looms were not significant. Conclusion: According to the results of this study, it can be concluded that occupational factors are associated with the number of MSDs developing among carpet weavers. Thus, using standard tools and decreasing hours of work per day can reduce frequency of MSDs among carpet weavers.