• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.121-145
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• 1992

This paper examines characteristics of time series data related to the construction investment(stationarity and time series components such as secular trend, cyclical fluctuation, seasonal variation, and random change) and surveys predictibility, fitness, and explicability of independent variables of various models to build a short-term construction investment forecasting model suitable for current economic circumstances. Unit root test, autocorrelation coefficient and spectral density function analysis show that related time series data do not have unit roots, fluctuate cyclically, and are largely explicated by lagged variables. Moreover it is very important for the short-term construction investment forecasting to grasp time lag relation between construction investment series and leading indicators such as building construction permits and value of construction orders received. In chapter 3, we explicate 7 forecasting models; Univariate time series model (ARIMA and multiplicative linear trend model), multivariate time series model using leading indicators (1st order autoregressive model, vector autoregressive model and error correction model) and multivariate time series model using National Accounts data (simple reduced form model disconnected from simultaneous macroeconomic model and VAR model). These models are examined by 4 statistical tools that are average absolute error, root mean square error, adjusted coefficient of determination, and Durbin-Watson statistic. This analysis proves two facts. First, multivariate models are more suitable than univariate models in the point that forecasting error of multivariate models tend to decrease in contrast to the case of latter. Second, VAR model is superior than any other multivariate models; average absolute prediction error and root mean square error of VAR model are quitely low and adjusted coefficient of determination is higher. This conclusion is reasonable when we consider current construction investment has sustained overheating growth more than secular trend.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.107-113
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• 2011

To evaluate the performance of the hydrodynamic model, we introduced 10 skill assessments that are assorted by two groups: quantitative skill assessments (Absolute Average Error or AAE, Root Mean Squared Error or RMSE, Relative Absolute Average Error or RAAE, Percentage Model Error or PME) and qualitative skill assessments (Correlation Coefficient or CC, Reliability Index or RI, Index of Agreement or IA, Modeling Efficiency or MEF, Cost Function or CF, Coefficient of Residual Mass or CRM). These skill assessments were applied and calculated to evaluate the hydrodynamic modeling at one of Florida estuaries for water level, current, and salinity as comparing measured and simulated values. We found that AAE, RMSE, RAAE, CC, IA, MEF, CF, and CRM are suitable for the error assessment of water level and current, and AAE, RMSE, RAAE, PME, CC, RI, IA, CF, and CRM are good at the salinity error assessment. Quantitative and qualitative skill assessments showed the similar trend in terms of the classification for good and bad performance of model. Furthermore, this paper suggested the criteria of the "good" model performance for water level, current, and salinity. The criteria are RAAE < 10%, CC > 0.95, IA > 0.98, MEF > 0.93, CF < 0.21 for water level, RAAE < 20%, CC > 0.7, IA > 0.8, MEF > 0.5, CF < 0.5 for current, and RAAE < 10%, PME < 10%, CC > 0.9, RI < 1.15, CF < 0.1 for salinity.

• Smart Media Journal
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.122-129
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• 2020

The possibility that an asymptotic coronavirus-19 infected person around the world is not aware of his infection and can spread it to people around him is still a very important issue in that the public is not free from anxiety and fear over the spread of the epidemic. In this paper, the K-means clustering algorithm and deep learning-based crowd aggregation were proposed to determine the possibility of contact with confirmed cases of infectious diseases. As a result of 300 iterations of all input learning images, the PSNR value was 21.51, and the final MAE value for the entire data set was 67.984. This means the average absolute error between observations and the average absolute error of fewer than 4,000 people in each CCTV scene, including the calculation of the distance and infection rate from the confirmed patient and the surrounding persons, the net group of potential patient movements, and the prediction of the infection rate.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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• v.56 no.2
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• pp.222-228
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• 2018

Benzene is one of the most widely used basic materials in the petrochemical industry. Generally, benzene exists as a mixture with alcohols rather than as a pure substance. Further, the alcohols-added mixtures usually exhibit an azeotropic composition. In this context, knowledge of the phase equilibrium behavior of the mixture is essential for its separation and purification. In this study, the vapor-liquid equilibrium data were measured in favor of a recirculating VLE apparatus under constant pressure for the 1 - propanol / benzene system. The measured vapor - liquid equilibrium data were also correlated by using the UNIQUAC and WILSON models and the thermodynamic consistency test based on the Gibbs/Duhem equation was followed. The results of the phase equilibrium experiment revealed RMSEs (Root Mean Square Error) and AADs (Average Absolute Deviation) of less than 0.05 for both models, indicating a good agreement between the experimental value and the calculated value. The results of the thermodynamic consistency test also confirmed through the residual term within ${\pm}0.2$.

• Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.31-43
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• 2008

Travel time prediction is an indispensable to many advanced traveler information systems(ATIS) and intelligent transportation systems(ITS). In this paper we propose a method to predict travel time using $Na{\ddot{i}}ve$ Bayesian classification method which has exhibited high accuracy and processing speed when applied to classily large amounts of data. Our proposed prediction algorithm is also scalable to road networks with arbitrary travel routes. For a given route, we consider time-varying average segment velocity to perform more accuracy of travel time prediction. We compare the proposed method with the existing prediction algorithms like link-based prediction algorithm [1] and Micro T* algorithm [2]. It is shown from the performance comparison that the proposed predictor can reduce MARE (mean absolute relative error) significantly, compared with the existing predictors.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.73-84
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• 1992

The TIDE, finite element model for the simulation of tidal flow in shallow sea was tested for its applicability at the Saemangeum area. Several pre and post processors were developed to facilitate handling of the complicated and large amount of input and output data for the model developed. Also an operation scheme to run the model and the processors were established. As a result of calibration test using the observed data collected at 9 points within the region, linearlized friction coefficients were adjusted to be ranged 0.0027~0.0072, and water depths below the mean sea level at every nodes were changed to be increased generally by 1 meter. Comparisons of tidal velocities between the observed and the simulated for the 5 stations were made and obtained the result that the average relative error between simulated and observed tidal velocities was 11% for the maximum velocities and 22% for the minimum, and the absolute errors were less than 0.2m/sec. Also it was found that the average R.M.S. error between the velocities of observed and simulated was 0.119 m/sec and the average correlation coefficient was 0.70 showing close agreement. Another comparison test was done to show the result that R.M.S. error between the simulated and the observed tidal elevations at the 4 stations was 0.476m in average and the correlation coefficients were ranged 0.96~0.99. Though the simulated tidal circulation pattern in the region was well agreed with the observed, the simulated tidal velocities and elevations for specific points showed some errors with the observed. It was thought that the errors mainly due to the characteristics of TIDE Model which was developed to solve only with the linearized scheme. Finally it was concluded that, to improve the simulation results by the model, a new attempt to develop a fully nonlinear model as well as further calibration and the more reasonable generation of finite element grid would be needed.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.56-67
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• 2015

In this study, a source locating technique applicable to transversely isotropic media was developed. Wave velocity anisotropy was considered based on the partition approximation method, which simply enabled AE source locating. Sets of P wave arrival time were decided by the two-step AIC algorithm and they were later used to locate the AE sources when having the least error compared with the partitioned elements. In order to validate the technique, pencil lead break test on artificial transversely isotropic mortar specimen was carried out. Defining the absolute error as the distance between the pencil lead break point and the located point, 1.60 mm ~ 14.46 mm of range and 8.57 mm of average were estimated therefore it was regarded as thought to be 'acceptable' considering the size of the specimen and the AE sensors. Comparing each absolute error under different threshold levels, results showed small discrepancies therefore this technique was hardly affected by background noise. Absolute error could be decomposed into each coordinate axis error and through it, effect of AE sensor position could be understood so if optimum sensor position was able to be decided, one could get more precise outcome.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.904-915
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• 2018

We demonstrate how social media content can be used to predict the unemployment rate, a real-world indicator. We present a novel method for predicting the unemployment rate using social media analysis based on natural language processing and statistical modeling. The system collects social media contents including news articles, blogs, and tweets written in Korean, and then extracts data for modeling using part-of-speech tagging and sentiment analysis techniques. The autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) and autoregressive with exogenous variables (ARX) models for unemployment rate prediction are fit using the analyzed data. The proposed method quantifies the social moods expressed in social media contents, whereas the existing methods simply present social tendencies. Our model derived a 27.9% improvement in error reduction compared to a Google Index-based model in the mean absolute percentage error metric.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• v.30 no.5 s.112
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• pp.293-298
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• 2005

The purpose of this study was the development of a multi-joint robot manipulator for milking robot system. The multi-joint robot manipulator was controlled by 5 drivers with driver controller through the position information obtained from the image processing system. The robot manipulator to automatically attach each teat cup to the teats of a milking cow was developed and it's motion was accurately measured with error rate. Results were as follows. 1. Maximum errors in position accuracy were 4mm along X-axis, 4.5mm along Y-axis and 0.9mm along Z-axis. Absolute distance errors were maximum 4.8mm, minimum 2.7mm, and average 3.6mm. 2. Errors of repeatability were maximum 3.0mm along X-axis, 3.0mm along Y-axis, and 0.5mm along Z-axis. Distance error values were maximum 3.2mm, minimum 2.2mm, and average 2.5mm. It is envisaged that multi-joint robot manipulator can be applicate to milking robot system being developed in consideration of the experiment results.

• Membrane and Water Treatment
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• v.9 no.5
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• pp.363-371
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• 2018

In this work, it was investigated the usability of artificial bee colony (ABC) and genetic algorithm (GA) in modeling adsorption of Co(II) onto drinking water treatment sludge (DWTS). DWTS, obtained as inevitable byproduct at the end of drinking water treatment stages, was used as an adsorbent without any physical or chemical pre-treatment in the adsorption experiments. Firstly, DWTS was characterized employing various analytical procedures such as elemental, FT-IR, SEM-EDS, XRD, XRF and TGA/DTA analysis. Then, adsorption experiments were carried out in a batch system and DWTS's Co(II) removal potential was modelled via ABC and GA methods considering the effects of certain experimental parameters (initial pH, contact time, initial Co(II) concentration, DWTS dosage) called as the input parameters. The accuracy of ABC and GA method was determined and these methods were applied to four different functions: quadratic, exponential, linear and power. Some statistical indices (sum square error, root mean square error, mean absolute error, average relative error, and determination coefficient) were used to evaluate the performance of these models. The ABC and GA method with quadratic forms obtained better prediction. As a result, it was shown ABC and GA can be used optimization of the regression function coefficients in modeling adsorption experiments.