• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.31 no.1B
• /
• pp.21-27
• /
• 2011

When execute runoff forecasting, can not remove perfectly uncertainty of forecasting results. But, reduce uncertainty by various techniques analysis. This study applied various forecasting techniques for runoff prediction's accuracy elevation in Gongju basin. statics techniques is ESP, Period Average & Moving average, Exponential Smoothing, Winters, Auto regressive moving average process. Authoritativeness estimation with results of runoff forecasting by each techniques used MAE (Mean Absolute Error), RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), RRMSE (Relative Root Mean Squared Error), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), TIC (Theil Inequality Coefficient). Result that use MAE, RMSE, RRMSE, MAPE, TIC and confirm improvement effect of runoff forecasting, ESP techniques than the others displayed the best result.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.22 no.5
• /
• pp.84-89
• /
• 2007

The lower explosion limit(LEL) is one of the major combustion properties used to determine the fire and explosion hazards of the combustible substances. In this study, the lower explosion limits of the ester compounds were predicted by using the normal boiling points and the flash points based on the liquid thermodynamic theory. As a results, the A.A.P.E.(average absolute percent error) and the A.A.D.(average absolute deviation) of the reported and the calculated the LEL for the ester are 8.80 vol% and 0.18 vol%, respectively and the coefficient of correlation was 0.965. From a given results, by the use of the proposed methodology, it is possible to predict the lower explosion limits of the other flammable materials.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.28 no.6
• /
• pp.509-515
• /
• 2004

The aim of this paper is to forecast passenger numbers and freight volumes in 2005 and it is proposed optimal tonnage of passenger ship. The forecasting of passenger numbers and freight volumes is important problem in order to determine optimal tonnage of passenger ship, port plan and development. In this paper, the forecasting of passenger numbers and freight volumes are performed by the method of neural network using back-propagation learning algorithm. And this paper compares the forecasting performance of neural networks with moving average method and exponential smooth method As the result of analysis. The forecasting of passenger numbers and freight volumes is that the neural networks performed better than moving average method and exponential smoothing method on the basis of MSE(mean square error) and MAE(mean absolute error).

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.35 no.3
• /
• pp.385-393
• /
• 2022

In this paper, we consider univariate time series models that are well known in the field of forecasting and we study on forecasting performance for their simple combinations. The univariate time series models include exponential smoothing methods and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) models, their extended models, and non-seasonal and seasonal random walk models, which is frequently used as benchmark models for forecasting. The median and mean are simply used for the combination method, and the data set used for performance evaluation is M3-competition data composed of 3,003 various time series data. As results of evaluating the performance by sMAPE (symmetric mean absolute percentage error) and MASE (mean absolute scaled error), we assure that the simple combinations of the univariate models perform very well in the M3-competition dataset.

• Fire Science and Engineering
• /
• v.19 no.2 s.58
• /
• pp.1-7
• /
• 2005

An accurate knowledge of the minimum oxygen concentration(MOC) is important in developing appropriate prevention and control measures in industrial fire protection. In this study, by using the literature data and RSM(response surface methodology), the new equations for predicting the MOC are proposed. The A.A.P.E.(average absolute percent error) and the A.A.D.(average absolute deviation) of the reported and the calculated MOC for hydrocarbons were $3.48\%\;and\;0.37\;vol\%$, respectively and the correlation coefficient was 0.919. The A.A.P.E and the A.A.D of the reported and the calculated MOC for halogenated hydrocarbons and hydrocarbons were $5.06\%$ and $0.59vo1\%$, and the correlation coefficient was 0.938. The values calculated by the proposed equations were in good agreement with the literature data. Therefore, it is expected that this proposed equations will support the use of the research for other flammable substances.

• Journal of Wind Energy
• /
• v.10 no.3
• /
• pp.5-11
• /
• 2019

This paper suggests and compares two algorithms, a moving average filter method and a method developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), to verify the yaw control algorithm characteristic to reduce yaw error for a wind turbine. A characteristic change for yaw movement in accordance with control parameter change that consists of each control method has been verified. Also, yaw simulations were performed using nacelle wind data measured from two areas with different turbulence intensities and the yaw movement data in each area was compared. These two algorithms and real data were compared by calculating mean absolute error (MSE) and the number of yawing (NY). As a result of the analysis, the MSE values were not significantly different between the two algorithms, but the algorithm proposed by the NREL was found to reduce yaw movement by up to 50 percent more than the moving average filter method.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
• /
• v.25 no.12
• /
• pp.67-73
• /
• 2011

A method obtaining position data(x, y) of object accurately is proposed by using a pair of ultrasonic sensors composed of one transmitter and two receivers. And the driving system which controls the light of flat LED lamp locally using array of ultrasonic sensors (3 transmitters and 6 receivers) is developed. As a result, measured values of y are relatively reliable due to its small average of absolute errors of 1.03[cm]. The measured values of x have average error of 8.52[cm], and it is a large value. However, the average error is decreased by 0.65[cm] after applying algorithm for error correction. The experiments to control the light of flat LED lamp locally with algorithm for error correction are carried out. From the result, measured values of x with average error of 0.97[cm] are obtained and they are very good approximations of actual values.

• The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
• /
• v.7 no.2
• /
• pp.275-288
• /
• 1999

The purpose of this is providing a simple, relatively errorless body surface area calculation. Subjects were 10 married women and 10 singles women whose age was 20 to 29 years old. The Gypsum method has applied for the sampling of body surface. The Weight method has been used to measure body surface by means of transferring gypsum shape on uniform plane polypropylene films. In this study, compare analyzed errors between the traditional formulas for measuring body surface area and measuring data in this experiment. More than all, it has been to induce a regression equation for measuring body surface area, which is so simple to calculate with less errors, with variable factors as weight and height. The results of this experiment as follows : 1. In the traditional formulas, weight formula was shown high average error : Niya\`s height formula. which was modified K value as 0.62 in the height formula (S = KH) is shown lower average error than Lassabliere\`s Height formula. 2. In the weight-height formula (S=K √WH), it was shown high average error according to the increasing of K value. Kawanami\`s formula, which 5.378 as K value, was shown low average error both the singles and the married women. 3. Dubois weight-heingt formula (S=W/sup a/·H/sub b/·K) was shown low average error than the weight, height, weight-height (S=K√WH) formula. 4. The regression equations with variable factors as weight and height are 156.74W + 86.05H - 660.25 (Single women) and 136.02W + 90.57H - 6241.32 (Married women) the average error and absolute average error to the singles are 0.09%, 0.94% and resoectively -0.13%, 1.16% for the married women.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.35 no.5
• /
• pp.575-581
• /
• 2002

This study evaluates the variation of estimation error of area-average rainfall due to rainfall seasonality. Both the cases considering and not considering the spatial correlation are compared to derive the characteristics of estimation error. Similar cases with different accumulation time without considering the rainfall seasonality are also investigated. This study was applied to the Geum-river basin with total 28 rain gauge measurements haying more than 30 years of daily rainfall measurements. As results of the study we found that: (1) The absolute estimation error of monthly area-average rainfall show strong seasonality like the total rainfall amount. However, the relative estimation error normalized by its mean was estimated to have similar values about 5 to 8% except January and December. (2) The relative estimation error of annual area-average rainfall estimated was found to have the estimation error about 3% of its annual mean. (3) However, the relative estimation error normalized by the standard deviation remains almost the same for both monthly and annual rainfall amounts, which was estimated about 11% of its standard deviation. (4) Finally, the estimation error without considering the spatial correlation was found to become almost twice the estimation error with considering the spatial correlation.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
• /
• v.21 no.3
• /
• pp.1-6
• /
• 2016

As the convergence speed of time domain adaptive algorithm on the LMS(Least Mean Square) becomes slow when eigen value distribution width is spread, So variable step size algorithm is used widely. But it needs a lot of calculation load. In this paper we consider new algorithm, which can reduce calculations and improve convergence speed, uses instantaneous absolute value of average noise signal adapting the exponential function. For the performance of proposed algorithm is tested and simulated to system generator. As the result we show the variable step size adaptive algorithm in proportion to instantaneous absolute value is more stable and efficient than others.