• Title/Summary/Keyword: autoregressive model

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The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Absorptive Capabilities on the Economic Growth of the Lao People's Democratic Republic

  • NANTHARATH, Phouthakannha;KANG, Eungoo
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.151-162
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    • 2019
  • The paper examines the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the economic growth of Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) between 1993 and 2015. The investigation is based on the influence of growth and economic absorptive capability determinants such as human capital, trade openness, and institutional quality. The methodological analysis uses a multivariate framework accounting capital stock, labor stock, FDI, human capital, trade openness, and institutional quality in regression of the Vector Autoregressive model. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, and Granger Causality test were applied as parts of the econometric time-series analysis approach. The empirical results demonstrate the positive effects of FDI and trade openness, and the negative effects of human capital and institutional quality on the economic growth of the Lao PDR over the 1993 to 2015 period. The findings confirm that trade openness complemented by a sufficient level of infrastructure, education, quality institutions, and transparency significantly influence economic growth and attract more FDI. Research results lend credence to the need for the Lao PDR's government to focus on improving its economic absorptive capability and economic competitiveness regionally and globally by improving wealth and resource management strategies, as failure to take this course of action could lead to the Dutch Disease effects.

Effects of Foreign Direct Investment and Human Capital on Labour Productivity: Evidence from Vietnam

  • LE, Nguyen Hoang;DUY, Luong Vinh Quoc;NGOC, Bui Hoang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.123-130
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    • 2019
  • The paper aims to investigate whether foreign direct investment (FDI) has positive effect on the labour productivity in Vietnam. Labour productivity is the elemental determinant of a country's development level in long-term. In recent years, although increasing consistently, labour productivity of Vietnam remains low in comparison to other South East Asian countries. To identify the direction of effect and the level of effect of FDI and human capital on the labour productivity of Vietnam, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to examine the effect of FDI and human capital on labour productivity in Vietnam from 1986 to 2014. The results of bounds test confirm the existence of cointegration among the variables. Further, the Toda and Yamamoto Granger causality test affirms that there is unidirectional causality running from foreign direct investment and human capital index to labour productivity. The empirical results provide strong statistical evidence that foreign direct investment and human capital has a positive impact on labour productivity in Vietnam in long-term. These findings imply that workers are expected to further improve their knowledge, skills and that policy-maker should establish concrete plans to increase human capital. Results from this study provide suggestion necessary for Vietnam to achieve sustainable development.

Sound Sensation and Its Related Objective Parameters of Nylon Fabrics for Sports Outerwear (스포츠 아우터웨어용 나일론 직물의 소리 감각과 이와 관련된 객관적 파라미터들)

  • Yi, Eunjou;Cho, Gilsoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.25 no.9
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    • pp.1593-1602
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    • 2001
  • 본 연구는 스포츠 아우터웨어용 나일론 직물의 소리에 대한 주관적 감각과 이에 관련된 객관적 측정치를 규명하기 위하여, 서로 다른 8종의 나일론 직물의 소리의 스펙트럼 파형을 고찰하였으며, 소리 파라미터로 총음압(level pressure of total sound, LPT),세 가지 AR (autoregressive)계수, Zwicker의 심리음향학적 모델에 따른 크기(Z)와 날카로움(Z)를 계산하였고, Kawabata Evaluation System(KES)으로 직물의 물리적 성질을 측정하였다. 주관적 감각 평가를 위하여 피험자에게 녹음된 각 직물소리를 들려주어 7개 소리 감각 (부드러움, 시끄러움, 날카로움, 맑음, 거 침, 높음, 유쾌함)을 의미분별척도로 답하게 한 후, 단계적 선형 회귀식을 이용하여 직물 소리의 주관적 감각에 대한 예측 모델을 제시하였다. 울트라스웨이드를 제외한 태피터 나일론 직물들은 스펙트럼 파형 에서 다른 조성 섬유의 직물들보다 음압 값이 높고, 총음압이 60dB 안팎의 값을 보여, 착용자에게 불쾌감을 줄 것으로 예상되었으며, 주관적 감각 평가에서도 소리의 부드러움과 맑음, 유쾌함에서 음의 점수를, 시끄러움과 날카로움, 거침, 높음에서 양의 점수를 얻었다. 주관적 감각의 예측모델에서 총음압은 시끄러움과 거침에 정적 영향을, 유쾌함에 부적 영향을 미쳐서 나일론 직물 소리의 총음압이 50dB 이하일 때 주관적으로 유쾌하게 느껴지는 것으로 나타났다.

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Analyzing Fluctuation of the Rent-Transaction price ratio under the Influence of the Housing Transaction, Jeonse Rental price (주택매매가격 및 전세가격 변화에 따른 전세/매매가격비율 변동 분석)

  • Park, Jae-Hyun;Lee, Sang-Hyo;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2010
  • Uncertainty in housing price fluctuation has great impact on the overall economy due to importance of housing market as both place of residence and investment target. Therefore, estimating housing market condition is a highly important task in terms of setting national policy. Primary indicator of the housing market is a ratio between rent and transaction price of housing. The research explores dynamic relationships between Rent-Transaction price ratio, housing transaction price and jeonse rental price, using Vector Autoregressive Model, in order to demonstrate significance of shifting rent-transaction price that is subject to changes in housing transaction and housing rental market. The research applied housing transaction price index and housing rental price index as an indicator to measure transaction and rental price of housing. The price index and data for price ratio was derived from statistical data of the Kookmin Bank. The time-series data contains monthly data ranging between January 1999 and November 2009; the data was log transformed to convert to level variable. The analysis result suggests that the rising ratio between rent-transaction price of housing should be interpreted as a precursor for rise of housing transaction price, rather than judging as a mere indicator of a current trend.

How Does Economic News Affect S&P 500 Index Futures? (거시경제변수가 S&P 500 선물지수에 어떤 영향을 미치는가?)

  • So, Yung-Il;Ko, Jong-Moon;Choi, Won-Kun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.341-357
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    • 1996
  • Some empirical studies have shown that asset prices respond to announcements of economic news, however, others also have found little evidence. This study assesses how market participants of the S&P 500 Index Futures reacted to the U.S. economic news announcements. For this purpose, using a GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model, we use several U.S. news variables, its each surprise component and interest rates. We find that some economic news variables affected significantly on the S&P 500 Index Futures. In other words, we find that weekend variable, lagged volatility, and surprise component of trade deficit increased level of volatility. However, interest rate, M1, unemployment announcements caused the variance of the S&P 500 Index Futures to reduce, and each of the surprise component of M1 and trade deficit increased it. The result suggests that resolution of uncertainty, through economic news announcement, while, in some cases, causes market participants to reduce their forecast of volatility, a large difference between the market's forecast and the realization of the series causes the volatility to increase.

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The Analysis of Structural Relationships among Public Technology Transfer, Technological Performance, and R&D Productivity (공공기술 이전, 기술적 성과, 연구개발 생산성 간의 구조적 관계 분석)

  • Jeon, Jieun;Kwon, Sang Jib
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to identify the causal relationship among public technology transfer, technological performance, and research and development (R&D) productivity. Using the impulse-response function(IRF) of a panel vector autoregressive model (panel VAR), this study suggests the results of how long the factors such as technological performance (patent), public technology transfer, and R&D productivity takes and lasts if a one-unit shock of standard deviation occurs. As a result, first, the increase of public technology transfer activities has no power to increase the technology performance but improve the R&D productivity. If the public institute increases its technology transfer activities by one unit, the R&D productivity will increase within five years. Second, the impact of increasing technological performance on improvement of public technology transfer and R&D productivity is an insignificant. Third, the effect of R&D productivity on the public technology transfer creates a substantial reaction after a current time. Considering the structural relationships among public technology transfer, technological performance, and R&D productivity, if policy makers intend to construct the active R&D circumstance, technology suppliers should be motivated to run the active R&D mechanism because they achieve gains.

Carbon dioxide emissions, GDP per capita, industrialization and population: An evidence from Rwanda

  • Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel;Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.116-124
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    • 2017
  • The study makes an attempt to investigate the causal nexus between carbon dioxide emissions, GDP per capita, industrialization and population with an evidence from Rwanda by employing a time series data spanning from 1965 to 2011 using the autoregressive distributed lag model. Evidence from the study shows that carbon dioxide emissions, GDP per capita, industrialization and population are co-integrated and have a long-run equilibrium relationship. Evidence from the Granger-causality shows a unidirectional causality running from industrialization to GDP per capita, population to carbon dioxide emissions, population to GDP per capita and population to industrialization. Evidence from the long-run elasticities has policy implications for Rwanda; a 1% increase in GDP per capita will decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 1.45%, while a 1% increase in industrialization will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.64% in the long-run. Increasing economic growth in Rwanda will therefore reduce environmental pollution in the long-run which appears to support the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. However, industrialization leads to more emissions of carbon dioxide, which reduces environment, health and air quality. It is noteworthy that the Rwandan Government promotes sustainable industrialization, which improves the use of clean and environmentally sound raw materials, industrial process and technologies.

How Vulnerable is Indonesia's Financial System Stability to External Shock?

  • Pranata, Nika;Nurzanah, Nurzanah
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.5-17
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    • 2017
  • The main objective of the study is to measure the vulnerability of Indonesia's financial system stability in response to external shocks, including from regional economies namely three biggest Indonesia major trading partners (China, the U.S and Japan) and other external factors (oil price and the federal funds rate). Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Orthogonalized Impulse Response Function (OIRF) with quarterly data over the period Q4 2002 - Q1 2016, results confirm that, 1) oil price response has the largest effect to Indonesia financial stability system and the effect period is the longest compared to others, represented by NPL and IHSG; 2) among those three economies, only China's economic growth has significantly positive effect to Indonesia financial stability system. Based on the findings it is better for the authorities to: 1) Diversify international trade commodities by decreasing share of oil, gas, and mining export and boosting other potential sectors such as manufacture, and fisheries; 2) Ensure the survival of Indonesia large coal exporter companies without neglecting burden of national budget; and 3) Create buffer for demand shock from specific countries by diversifying and increasing share of trading from other countries particularly from ASEAN member states.

Is Expansionary Fiscal and Monetary Policy Effective in Australia?

  • HSING, Yu
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.5-9
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - This paper examines whether fiscal and monetary expansion would affect output in Australia. Research design, data, and methodology - An extended IS-LM model which describes the equilibrium in the goods market and the money market is applied. The real effective exchange rate and the real stock price are included in order to determine whether there may be any substitution or wealth effect. The sample consists of Annual data ranging from 1990 to 2018. The GARCH process is used in empirical work to correct for potential autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Results - Expansionary fiscal policy reduces output; whereas, expansionary monetary policy raises output. In addition, real appreciation of the Australian dollar, a lower U.S. interest rate, a higher real stock price or a lower expected inflation would increase output. The finding that expansionary fiscal policy has a negative impact on real GDP suggests that the negative crowding-out effect on private spending dominates the positive impact. Conclusions - Fiscal prudence needs to be pursued. Real depreciation of the Australian dollar hurts output. Monetary tightening in the U.S. generates a negative effect on Australia's output. A healthy stock market is conducive to economic growth as higher stock prices tend to result in the wealth and other positive effects, increasing consumption and business spending.

Investigation of Visual Perception Under Zen-Meditation Based On Alpha-Dependent F-VEPs

  • Liao, Hsien-Cheng;Liu, Chuan-Yi;Lo, Pei-Chen
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.384-391
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    • 2006
  • Variation of brain dynamics under Zen meditation has been one of our major research interests for years. One issue encountered is the inaccessibility to the actual meditation level or stage as a reference. In this paper, we propose an alternative strategy for investigating the human brain in response to external flash stimuli during Zen meditation course. To secure a consistent condition of the brain dynamics when applying stimulation, we designed a recording of flash visual evoked potentials (F-VEPs) based on a constant background EEG (electroencephalograph) frontal $\alpha-rhythm$ dominating activities that increase significantly during Zen meditation. Thus the flash-light stimulus was to be applied upon emergence of the frontal $\alpha-rhythm$. The alpha-dependent F-VEPs were then employed to inspect the effect of Zen meditation on brain dynamics. Based on the experimental protocol proposed, considerable differences between experimental and control groups were obtained. Our results showed that amplitudes of P1-N2 and N2-P2 on Cz and Fz increased significantly during meditation, contrary to the F-VEPs of control group at rest. We thus suggest that Zen meditation results in acute response on primary visual cortex and the associated parts.