• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.143-154
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• 2024

This paper considers a combined model of exponential smoothing (ETS) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models that are commonly used to forecast time series data. The combined model is constructed through an innovational state space model based on the level variable instead of the differenced variable, and the identifiability of the model is investigated. We consider the maximum likelihood estimation for the model parameters and suggest the model selection steps. The forecasting performance of the model is evaluated by two real time series data. We consider the three competing models; ETS, ARIMA and the trigonometric Box-Cox autoregressive and moving average trend seasonal (TBATS) models, and compare and evaluate their root mean squared errors and mean absolute percentage errors for accuracy. The results show that the combined model outperforms the competing models.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.55 no.2
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• pp.85-93
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• 2006

Since the SMP(System Marginal Price) is a vital factor to the market participants who intend to maximize the their profit and to the ISO(Independent System Operator) who wish to operate the electricity market in a stable sense, the short-term marginal price forecasting should be performed correctly. In an electricity market the short-term market price affects considerably the short-term trading between the market entities. Therefore, the exact forecasting of SMP can influence on the profit of market participants. This paper presents a new methodology for a day-ahead SMP forecasting using ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model based on the time-series method. And also the correction algorithm is proposed to minimize the forecasting error in order to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the SMP forecasting. To show the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed method, the case studies are performed using historical data of SMP in 2004 published by KPX(Korea Power Exchange).

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.185-195
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• 2012

This paper focused on forecasting a short-term production of oysters, which have been farmed in Korea, with distinct periodicity of production by year, and different production level by month. To forecast a short-term oyster production, this paper uses monthly data (260 observations) from January 1990 to August 2011, and also adopts several econometrics methods, such as Multiple Regression Analysis Model (MRAM), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). As a result, first, the amount of short-term oyster production forecasted by the multiple regression analysis model was 1,337 ton with prediction error of 246 ton. Secondly, the amount of oyster production of the SARIMA I and II models was forecasted as 12,423 ton and 12,442 ton with prediction error of 11,404 ton and 11,423 ton, respectively. Thirdly, the amount of oyster production based on the VECM was estimated as 10,425 ton with prediction errors of 9,406 ton. In conclusion, based on Theil inequality coefficient criterion, short-term prediction of oyster by the VECM exhibited a better fit than ones by the SARIMA I and II models and Multiple Regression Analysis Model.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.162-168
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• 2017

Rainfall is one of the most important phenomena of the natural system. In Bangladesh, agriculture largely depends on the intensity and variability of rainfall. Therefore, an early indication of possible rainfall can help to solve several problems related to agriculture, climate change and natural hazards like flood and drought. Rainfall forecasting could play a significant role in the planning and management of water resource systems also. In this study, univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used to forecast monthly rainfall for twelve months lead-time for thirty rainfall stations of Bangladesh. The best SARIMA model was chosen based on the RMSE and normalized BIC criteria. A validation check for each station was performed on residual series. Residuals were found white noise at almost all stations. Besides, lack of fit test and normalized BIC confirms all the models were fitted satisfactorily. The predicted results from the selected models were compared with the observed data to determine prediction precision. We found that selected models predicted monthly rainfall with a reasonable accuracy. Therefore, year-long rainfall can be forecasted using these models.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.50-56
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• 2014

Accurate midterm load forecasting is essential to preventive maintenance programs and reliable demand supply programs. This paper describes a midterm load forecasting method using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model which has been widely used in time series forecasting due to its accuracy and predictability. The various ARIMA models are examined in order to find the optimal model having minimum error of the midterm load forecasting. The proposed method is applied to forecast 104-week load pattern using the historical data in Korea. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by forecasting 104-week load from 2011 to 2012 by using historical data from 2002 to 2010.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.645-655
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• 2022

In this paper, we investigate automatic functions for time series forecasting in R system and compare their performances. For the exponential smoothing models and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) models, we focus on the representative time series forecasting functions in R: forecast::ets(), forecast::auto.arima(), smooth::es() and smooth::auto.ssarima(). In order to compare their forecast performances, we use M3-Competiti on data consisting of 3,003 time series and adopt 3 accuracy measures. It is confirmed that each of the four automatic forecasting functions has strengths and weaknesses in the flexibility and convenience for time series modeling, forecasting accuracy, and execution time.

• Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.82-91
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• 2022

In this paper, time series prediction method of photovoltaic power is introduced using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA). In order to obtain the best fitting model by a time series method in the absence of an environmental sensor, this research was used data below 50% of cloud cover. Three samples were extracted by time intervals from the raw data. After that, the best fitting models were derived from mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) with the minimum akaike information criterion (AIC) or beysian information criterion (BIC). They are SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,2,2)14, SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,2,2)28, SARIMA (2,0,3)(1,2,2)55. Generally parameter of model derived from BIC was lower than AIC. SARIMA (2,0,3)(1,2,2)55, unlike other models, was drawn by AIC. And the performance of models obtained by SARIMA was compared. MAPE value was affected by the seasonal period of the sample. It is estimated that long seasonal period samples include atmosphere irregularity. Consequently using 1 hour or 30 minutes interval sample is able to be helpful for prediction accuracy improvement.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.43 no.4
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• pp.539-556
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• 2022

In the coastal areas of Jeju Island, composed of volcanic rocks, saltwater intrusion occurs due to excessive pumping and geological characteristics. Groundwater level and electrical conductivity (EC) in multi-depth monitoring wells in coastal areas were characterized from 2005 to 2019. During the period of the lowest monthly precipitation, from November 2017 until February 2018, groundwater level decreased by 0.32-0.91 m. During the period of the highest monthly precipitation, from September 2019 until October 2019, groundwater level increased by 0.46-2.95 m. Groundwater level fluctuation between the dry and wet seasons ranged from 0.79 to 3.73 m (average 1.82 m) in the eastern area, from 0.47 to 6.57 m (average 2.55 m) in the western area, from 0.77 to 8.59 m (average 3.53 m) in the southern area, and from 1.06 to 12.36 m (average 5.92 m) in the northern area. In 2013, when the area experienced decreased annual precipitation, at some monitoring wells in the western area, the groundwater level decreased due to excessive groundwater pumping and saltwater intrusion. Based on EC values of 10,000 ㎲/cm or more, saltwater intrusion from the coastline was 10.2 km in the eastern area, 4.1 km in the western area, 5.8 km in the southern area, and 5.7 km in the northern area. Autocorrelation analysis of groundwater level revealed that the arithmetic mean of delay time was 0.43 months in the eastern area, 0.87 months in the northern area, 10.93 months in the southern area, and 17.02 months in the western area. Although a few monitoring wells were strongly influenced by nearby pumping wells, the cross-correlation function of the groundwater level was the highest with precipitation in most wells. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model indicated that the groundwater level will decrease in most wells in the western area and decrease or increase in different wells in the eastern area.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.15 no.26
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• pp.181-187
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• 1992

본 논문은 CIMS에서 적응되는 ARMA 공정제어의 새로운 3단계절차를 제안한다. 첫번째 단계는 다변량 ARMA모델을 식별하여 모수를 추정하고, white noise로 진단된 잔차 series에 대하여 다변량 제어통계량(즉, 다변량 Hotelling T$^2$통계량, 다변량 CUSUM, 다변량 EWHA 통계량, 다변량 MA 통계량)등을 계산한다. 마지막으로 본 논문에서 제안한 8가지 다변량 제어통계량을 상호비교하여 이상점을 발견한다.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.904-915
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• 2018

We demonstrate how social media content can be used to predict the unemployment rate, a real-world indicator. We present a novel method for predicting the unemployment rate using social media analysis based on natural language processing and statistical modeling. The system collects social media contents including news articles, blogs, and tweets written in Korean, and then extracts data for modeling using part-of-speech tagging and sentiment analysis techniques. The autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) and autoregressive with exogenous variables (ARX) models for unemployment rate prediction are fit using the analyzed data. The proposed method quantifies the social moods expressed in social media contents, whereas the existing methods simply present social tendencies. Our model derived a 27.9% improvement in error reduction compared to a Google Index-based model in the mean absolute percentage error metric.