• Title/Summary/Keyword: autocorrelated disturbances

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A Modified Diffusion Model Considering Autocorrelated Disturbances: Applications on CT Scanners and FPD TVs (자기상관 오차항을 고려한 수정된 확산모형: CT-스캐너와 FPD TV에의 응용)

  • Cha, Kyoung Cheon;Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2009
  • Estimating the Bass diffusion model often creates a time-interval bias, which leads the OLS approach to overestimate sales at early stages and underestimate sales after the peak. Further, a specification error from omitted variables might raise serial correlations among residuals when marketing actions are not incorporated into the diffusion model. Autocorrelated disturbances may yield unbiased but inefficient estimation, and therefore invalid inference results. This phenomenon warrants a modified approach to estimating the Bass diffusion model. In this paper, the authors propose a modified Bass diffusion model handling autocorrelated disturbances. To validate the new approach, authors applied the method on two different data-sets: CT Scanners in the U.S, and FPD TV sales in Korea. The results showed improved model fit and the validity of the proposed model.

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Equivalence of GLS and Difference Estimator in the Linear Regression Model under Seasonally Autocorrelated Disturbances

  • Seuck Heun Song;Jong Hyup Lee
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.112-118
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    • 1994
  • The generalized least squares estimator in the linear regression model is equivalent to difference estimator irrespective of the particular form of the regressor matrix when the disturbances are generated by a seasonally autoregressive provess and autocorrelation is closed to unity.

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The Efficiency of the Cochrane-Orcutt Estimation Procedure in Autocorrelated Regression Models

  • Song, Seuck-Heun;Myoungshic Jhun;Jung, Byoung-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.319-329
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    • 1998
  • In the linear regression model with an autocorrelated disturbances, the Cochrane-Orcutt estimator (COE) is a well known alternative to the Generalized Least Squares estimator (GLSE). The efficiency of COE has been studied empirically in a Monte Carlo study when the unknown parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood method. In this paper, it is theoretically proved that the COE is shown to be inferior to the GLSE. The comparisons are based on the difference of corresponding information matrices or the ratio of their determinants.

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