• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.109-118
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• 2013

We propose a method for estimating coefficients of AR (autoregressive) model which named MLPAR (Maximum Likelihood of Pearson system for Auto-Regressive model). In the present method for estimating coefficients of AR model, there is an assumption that residual or error term of the model follows the normal distribution. In common cases, we can observe that the error of AR model does not follow the normal distribution. So the normal assumption will cause decreasing prediction accuracy of AR model. In the paper, we propose the MLPAR which does not assume the normal distribution of error term. The MLPAR estimates coefficients of auto-regressive model and distribution moments of residual by using pearson distribution system and maximum likelihood estimation. Comparing proposed method to auto-regressive model, results are shown to verify improved performance of the MLPAR in terms of prediction accuracy.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제12권5호
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• pp.157-165
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• 1995

In this paper the comparison between the neural networks and traditional approaches as nonlinear system identification methods are considered. Two model structures of neural networks are the state space model and the input output model neural networks. The traditional methods are the AutoRegressive eXogeneous Input model and the Nonlinear AutoRegressive eXogeneous Input model. Computer simulation for an analytic dynamic model of a single input single output nonlinear system has been done for all the chosen models. Model validation for the obtained models also has been done with testing inputs of the sinusoidal, ramp and the noise ramp.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.299-314
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• 2003

This investigation presents an efficient method for identifying modal characteristics from the measured displacement, velocity and acceleration signals of multiple channels on structural systems. A Vector Backward Auto-Regressive model (VBAR) that describes the relationship between the output information in different time steps is used to establish a backward state equation. Generally, the accuracy of the identified dynamic characteristics can be improved by increasing the order of the Auto-Regressive model (AR) in cases of measurement of data under noisy circumstances. However, a higher-order AR model also induces more numerical modes, only some of which are the system modes. The proposed VBAR model provides a clear characteristic boundary to separate the system modes from the spurious modes. A numerical example of a lumped-mass model with three DOFs was established to verify the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method. Finally, an offshore platform model was experimentally employed as an application case to confirm the proposed VBAR method can be applied to real-world structures.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.366-385
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• 2013

In this paper, we propose a compressed sensing (CS) based Wyner-Ziv (WZ) codec using motion-aligned auto regressive model (MAAR) based side information (SI) extrapolation to improve the compression performance of low-delay distributed video coding (DVC). In the CS based WZ codec, the WZ frame is divided into small blocks and CS measurements of each block are acquired at the encoder, and a specific CS reconstruction algorithm is proposed to correct errors in the SI using CS measurements at the decoder. In order to generate high quality SI, a MAAR model is introduced to improve the inaccurate motion field in auto regressive (AR) model, and the Tikhonov regularization on MAAR coefficients and overlapped block based interpolation are performed to reduce block effects and errors from over-fitting. Simulation experiments show that our proposed CS based WZ codec associated with MAAR based SI generation achieves better results compared to other SI extrapolation methods.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.803-814
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• 2016

Recent times have seen an exponential increase in the amount of spatial data, which is in many cases associated with temporal data. Recent advances in computer technology and computation of hierarchical Bayesian models have enabled to analyze complex spatio-temporal data. Our work aims at modeling data of daily average nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels obtained from 25 air monitoring sites in Seoul between 2003 and 2010. We considered an independent Gaussian process model and an auto-regressive model and carried out estimation within a hierarchical Bayesian framework with Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. A Gaussian predictive process approximation has shown the better prediction performance rather than a Hierarchical auto-regressive model for the illustrative NO2 concentration levels at any unmonitored location.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.181-188
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• 2021

본 연구의 목적은 패널자료의 분석을 통해 청소년의 학교생활적응과 생활만족도 간의 인과관계를 파악함으로써 학교생활적응 및 생활만족도의 제고와 관련된 함의를 얻는 것이다. 연구목적의 달성을 위해 한국아동·청소년패널조사(2010-2016) 초4패널의 제1차 내지 제7차 자료를 사용하여 학교생활적응과 생활만족도 간의 관계를 자기회귀 교차지연 모형을 적용하여 검정하였다. 연구결과는 다음과 같았다. 첫째, 조사대상 기간에 걸쳐 이전 시점의 학교생활적응은 이후 시점의 학교생활적응을 안정적으로 예측하였다. 둘째, 조사대상 기간에 걸쳐 이전 시점의 생활만족도는 이후 시점의 생활만족도를 안정적으로 예측하였다. 셋째, 조사대상 기간에 걸쳐 이전 시점의 학교생활적응은 이후 시점의 생활만족도를 안정적으로 예측하였으나 그 반대 방향의 인과성은 유의하지 않았다. 끝으로, 청소년의 학교생활적응과 생활만족도 증진을 위한 함의를 제시하였다.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 1994년도 Proceedings of the Korea Automatic Control Conference, 9th (KACC) ; Taejeon, Korea; 17-20 Oct. 1994
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• pp.134-139
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• 1994

In this paper the comparison between the neural networks and traditional approaches as system identification method are considered. Two model structures of neural networks are the state space model and the input output model neural networks. The traditional methods are the AutoRegressive eXogeneous Input model and the Nonlinear AutoRegressive eXogeneous Input model. The examples considered do not represent any physical system, no a priori knowledge concerning their structure has been used in the identification process. Testing inputs for comparison are the sinusoidal, ramp and the noise ramp.

• 전력전자학회논문지
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.316-324
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• 2022

This paper uses seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (S-ARIMA), which is efficient in seasonality between time-series models, to predict the degradation tendency for lithium-ion batteries and study a method for improving the predictive performance. The proposed method analyzes the degradation tendency and extracted factors through an electrical characteristic experiment of lithium-ion batteries, and verifies whether time-series data are suitable for the S-ARIMA model through several statistical analysis techniques. Finally, prediction of battery aging is performed through S-ARIMA, and performance of the model is verified through error comparison of predictions through mean absolute error.

• 전자공학회논문지S
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• 제36S권11호
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• pp.54-59
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• 1999

본 논문에서는 보다 정확한 선형예측을 위해 시공간적응적 기반영역에 바탕을 둔 확장된 auto regressive(AR) 모델을 제안한다. 기존의 AR 모델에서 영상 전체에 걸쳐 사용되는 직사각형 형태의 기반영역은 영상의 경계선 영역에서는 더 이상 정상상태(stationarity)의 조건을 만족시키지 않음으로써 경계선 영역에서 예측오차가 증가하는 결점을 갖는다. 그래서 제안된 방법은 AR 모델에서 시공간적응적 기반영역이라 불리는 정상상태의 기반영역을 구성하는데 중점을 둔다. 시공간적응적 기반영역은 영상의 경계선 특성과 관련되는 공간적응적 기반영역과 시간축의 불연속 개념과 관련되는 시간적응적 기반영역으로 구성되어진다. 제안된 AR 모델은 동영상 복원 실험간 좀 더 정확한 모델 파라미터를 산출하였을 뿐만 아니라 복잡한 계산과정을 단순화하는 이점을 가진다.

• 한국방송∙미디어공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방송공학회 1998년도 학술대회
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• pp.131-134
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• 1998

본 논문에서는 시공간 적응적 기반영역 (Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Support Region : ASTSR)을 바탕으로 하는 일반화된 Auto-Regressive(AT)모델을 제안한다. 시공간 적응적 기반 영역은 영상 내 경계선의 특성과 동영상에서의 시간적 불연속 (temporal discontinuity) 개념을 이용하여 구성되어질 수 있다. 설정된 시공간 적응적 기반영역은 기존의 AR 모델에 적용되어지는 직사각형 형태의 기반영역에 비하여 보다 정상상태(stationarity)의 특성을 가지며 이로 인해 더 정확한 모델 파라미터들을 추출해 낼 수 있을 뿐 아니라 데이터의 처리량에서도 큰 이득을 얻을 수 있다. 제안된 방법은 손상된 동영상 데이터를 복원(motion picture restoration)하는 측면에 응용되어 실험되어졌으며 기존의 모델과 비교하여 우수한 성능을 보여주었다.