• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.601-607
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• 2007

In order to maintain constant residual chlorine in sedimentation basin, It is necessary to develop real time prediction model of residual chlorine considering water treatment plant data such as water qualities, weather, and plant operation conditions. Based on the operation data acquired from K water treatment plant, prediction models of residual chlorine in sediment basin were accomplished. The input parameters applied in the models were water temperature, turbidity, pH, conductivity, flow rate, alkalinity and pre-chlorination dosage. The multiple regression models were established with linear and non-linear model with 5,448 data set. The corelation coefficient (R) for the linear and non-linear model were 0.39 and 0.374, respectively. It shows low correlation coefficient, that is, these multiple regression models can not represent the residual chlorine with the input parameters which varies independently with time changes related to weather condition. Artificial neural network models are applied with three different conditions. Input parameters are consisted of water quality data observed in water treatment process based on the structure of auto-regressive model type, considering a time lag. The artificial neural network models have better ability to predict residual chlorine at sediment basin than conventional linear and nonlinear multi-regression models. The determination coefficients of each model in verification process were shown as 0.742, 0.754, and 0.869, respectively. Consequently, comparing the results of each model, neural network can simulate the residual chlorine in sedimentation basin better than mathematical regression models in terms of prediction performance. This results are expected to contribute into automation control of water treatment processes.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.1B
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• pp.21-27
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• 2011

When execute runoff forecasting, can not remove perfectly uncertainty of forecasting results. But, reduce uncertainty by various techniques analysis. This study applied various forecasting techniques for runoff prediction's accuracy elevation in Gongju basin. statics techniques is ESP, Period Average & Moving average, Exponential Smoothing, Winters, Auto regressive moving average process. Authoritativeness estimation with results of runoff forecasting by each techniques used MAE (Mean Absolute Error), RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), RRMSE (Relative Root Mean Squared Error), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), TIC (Theil Inequality Coefficient). Result that use MAE, RMSE, RRMSE, MAPE, TIC and confirm improvement effect of runoff forecasting, ESP techniques than the others displayed the best result.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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• v.18 no.8
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• pp.84-93
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• 1999

Determination of grain size of heat-treated stainless steel based fm digital ultrasonic signal processing technique is presented. This techniques consist in evidence accumulation with multiple feature parameters, difference absolute mean value(DAMV), variance(VAR), mean frequency (MEANF), auto regressive model coefficient(ARC) and linear cepstrum coefficient(LCC). Feature parameters were extracted from ultrasonic echo signal of heat-treated metals. It was found that a few parameters might not be sufficient to exactly evaluate the grain size of heat-treated metals. The determination of grain size of heat-treated metals was carried out through the evidence accumulation procedure using the distances measured with reference parameters. A fuzzy mapping function is designed to transform the distances for the application of the evidence accumulation method. In the work presented, heat-treated stainless steel samples with various grain sizes are examined. The processed experimental results supports the feasibility of the grain size determination technique presented.

• Water for future
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.23-36
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• 1982

The stochastic variations and structures of time series data on water quality were examined by employing the techniques of autocorrelation function, variance spectrum, Fourier series, autoregressive model and ARIMA model. These time series included hourly and daily observation on DO, turbidity, conductivity pH and water temperature. The measurement was made by automatic recording instrument at Noryangjin and Dook-do located in the downstream part of Han River during 1975 and 1976. Hourly water quality time series varied with the dominant 24-hour periodicity, and the 12-hour periodicity was also observed. An important factor affecting 24-hour periodic variation of DO is believed to be photosynthesis by algae. These phenomena might be attributable to periodic discharges of municipal sewage. Noryangjin site showed the more distinct 12-hour periodicity than Dook-do site did, and tidal effect might be responsible for the difference. The water quality, as measured by DO and turbidity, was better in the afternoon compared with the quality in the morning. This change can be explained by the periodic variation of DO, temperature and the amount of municipal wewage discharge. It was also observed that the water temperature at Noryangjin was higher than the temperature at Dook-do. This difference might have been caused by the pollutants that were added to the section between two sites. The correlation coefficients between some of the variables were fairly high. For example, the coefficient was -0.88 between DO and water temperature, 0.75 between turbidity and river flow, and 0.957 between water temperature and air temperature. The lag time of heat transfer from the air to the water was estimated as 24 days. The first order auto-regressive model was appropriate for explaning standardized hourly DO time series. The ARIMA model of (1, 0, 0) type provided relatively satisfactory results for daily DO time series after the removal of significant harmonic value.

• Advances in environmental research
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.233-246
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• 2015

High amounts of air pollution in crowded urban areas are always considered as one of the major environmental challenges especially in developing countries. Despite the errors in air pollution prediction, the forecasting of future data helps air quality management make decisions promptly and properly. We studied the air quality of the Aqdasiyeh location in Tehran using factor analysis and the Box-Jenkins time series methods. The Air Quality Control Company (AQCC) of the Municipality of Tehran monitors seven daily air quality parameters, including carbon monoxide (CO), Nitrogen Monoxide (NO), Nitrogen dioxide ($NO_2$), $NO_x$, ozone ($O_3$), particulate matter ($PM_{10}$) and sulfur dioxide ($SO_2$). We applied the AQCC data for our study. According to the results of the factor analysis, the air quality parameters were divided into two factors. The first factor included CO, $NO_2$, NO, $NO_x$, and $O_3$, and the second was $SO_2$ and $PM_{10}$. Subsequently, the Box- Jenkins time series was applied to the two mentioned factors. The results of the statistical testing and comparison of the factor data with the predicted data indicated Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (0, 0, 1) was appropriate for the first factor, and ARIMA (1, 0, 1) was proper for the second one. The coefficient of determination between the factor data and the predicted data for both models were 0.98 and 0.983 which may indicate the accuracy of the models. The application of these methods could be beneficial for the reduction of developing numbers of mathematical modeling.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.15 no.8
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• pp.701-718
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• 2006

The average ratio of the daily UV-B to total solar (75) irradiance at Busan (35.23$^{\circ}$N, 129.07$^{\circ}$E) in Korea is found as 0.11%. There is also a high exponential relationship between hourly UV-B and total solar irradiance: UV-B=exp (a$\times$(75-b))(R$^2$=0.93). The daily variation of total ozone is compared with the UV-B irradiance at Pohang (36.03$^{\circ}$N, 129.40$^{\circ}$E) in Korea using the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data during the period of May to July in 2005. The total ozone (TO) has been maintained to a decreasing trend since 1979, which leading to a negative correlation with the ground-level UV-B irradiance doting the given period of cloudless day: UV-B=239.23-0.056 TO (R$^2$=0.52). The statistical predictions of daily total ozone are analyzed by using the data of the Brewer spectrophotometer and TOMS in East Asia including the Korean peninsula. The long-term monthly averages of total ozone using the multiplicative seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model are used to predict the hourly mean UV-B irradiance by interpolating the daily mean total ozone far the predicting period. We also can predict the next day's total ozone by using regression models based on the present day's total ozone by TOMS and the next day's predicted maximum air temperature by the Meteorological Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5). These predicted and observed total ozone amounts are used to input data of the parameterization model (PM) of hourly UV-B irradiance. The PM of UV-B irradiance is based on the main parameters such as cloudiness, solar zenith angle, total ozone, opacity of aerosols, altitude, and surface albedo. The input data for the model requires daily total ozone, hourly amount and type of cloud, visibility and air pressure. To simplify cloud effects in the model, the constant cloud transmittance are used. For example, the correlation coefficient of the PM using these cloud transmissivities is shown high in more than 0.91 for cloudy days in Busan, and the relative mean bias error (RMBE) and the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) are less than 21% and 27%, respectively. In this study, the daily variations of calculated and predicted UV-B irradiance are presented in high correlation coefficients of more than 0.86 at each monitoring site of the Korean peninsula as well as East Asia. The RMBE is within 10% of the mean measured hourly irradiance, and the RRMSE is within 15% for hourly irradiance, respectively. Although errors are present in cloud amounts and total ozone, the results are still acceptable.