• Title/Summary/Keyword: auto/cross correlation

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Estimation of future climate change factor based on CMIP6 data (CMIP6 자료 기반 미래 기후변화 할증률 산정)

  • Beak, Dojin;Kim, Jongho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.308-308
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    • 2023
  • 자연재해대책법 제 16조 6에 따라 기후변화로 인한 방재성능목표의 영향을 고려하기 위해 방재성능가이드라인을 설정하여 운영하고 있다. 2017년 공표된 기후변화를 고려한 방재성능목표 강우량의 단기 할증률은 CMIP5 자료를 기반으로 기본 5%, 관심 8%, 주의 10%의 할증률로 구분되어 적용되고 있다. 그러나, 미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따르면 확률강우량이 늘어나는 지역도 있지만, 감소될 것으로 예상되는 지역도 존재한다. 따라서, 모든 지역을 3개의 구간으로 나누어 증가 할증률을 적용하는 것에 대한 검토가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 CMIP6 기후변화 자료를 시단위로 다운스케일링한 시계열을 이용하여 미래 기후변화로 인한 방재성능목표의 할증률을 산정하고, 각 할증률에 기반한 구간을 상세화하고자 한다. 구체적으로, 현재 기상청에서 제공하는 일단위 기후변화 데이터베이스와, CMIP6에서 제공하는 일단위 기후변화 자료를 구축하고, 분석하였다. 이후 구축된 일단위 자료를 시단위 자료로 Downscaling한 후, 각 이산화탄소 배출 시나리오인 SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5에 대해 앙상블 시계열을 생성하고, 다양한 기후변화의 불확실성을 적절하게 정량화 할 예정이다. 그중에서 방재성능목표와 가장 밀접하다고 생각되는 변수들(연강우량, 8월강우량, 연최대강우량, 30년빈도 확률강우량 등)을 CCF(Cross Correlation Function), ACC(Auto Correlation Function)방법 등을 통해 분석하여 최적의 변수들을 찾고, 그 값들의 앙상블 평균을 통해 안정된 방재성능목표 기후변화 할증률 값을 산정할 예정이다. 169개 지역의 시·군 단위의 티센망과, 238개 지역의 시·군·구 단위의 티센망을 구축하고, 기상청 ASOS(Automated Synoptic Observing System)의 69개 기상관측소 강우관측자료와 AWS(Automatic Weather System)의 419개 기상관측소를 활용하여 지역별 미래 기후변화를 고려한 비선형적 할증률를 제시할 것이다.

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The Use of Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (NIRS) for Broiler Carcass Analysis

  • Hsu, Hua;Zuidhof, Martin J.;Recinos-Diaz, Guillermo;Wang, Zhiquan
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.1510-1510
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    • 2001
  • NIRS uses reflectance signals resulting from bending and stretching vibrations in chemical bonds between carbon, nitrogen, hydrogen, sulfur and oxygen. These reflectance signals are used to measure the concentration of major chemical composition and other descriptors of homogenized and freeze-dried whole broiler carcasses. Six strains of chicken were analyzed and the NIRS model predictions compared to reference data. The results of this comparison indicate that NIRS is a rapid tool for predicting dry matter (DM), fat, crude protein (CP) and ash content in the broiler carcass. Males and females of six commercial strain crosses of broiler chicken (Gallus domesticus) were used in this study (6$\times$2 factorial design). Each strain was grown to 16 weeks of age, and duplicate serial samples were taken for body composition analysis. Each whole carcass was pressure-cooked, homogenized, and a representative sample was freeze-dried. Body composition determined as follows: DM by oven dried method at 105$^{\circ}C$ for 3 hours, fat by Mojonnier diethyl ether extraction, CP by measuring nitrogen content using an auto-analyzer with Kjeldhal digest and ash by combustion in a muffle furnace for 24 hour at 55$0^{\circ}C$. These homogenized and freeze-dried carcass samples were then scanned with a Foss NIR Systems 6500 visible-NIR spectrophotometer (400-2500nm) (Foss NIR Systems, Silver Spring, MD., US) using Infra-Soft-International, ISI, WinISl software (ISI, Port Matilda, US). The NIRS spectra were analyzed using principal component (PC) analysis. This data was corrected for scatter using standard normal “Variate” and “Detrend” technique. The accuracy of the NIRS calibration equations developed using Partial Least Squares (PLS) for predicting major chemical composition and carcass descriptors- such as body mass (BM), bird dry matter and moisture content was tested using cross validation. Discrimination analysis was also used for sex and strain identification. According to Dr John Shenk, the creator of the ISI software, the calibration equations with the correlation coefficient, $R^2$, between reference data and NIRS predicted results of above 0.90 is excellent and between 0.70 to 0.89 is a good quantifying guideline. The excellent calibration equations for DM ($R^2$= 0.99), fat (0.98) and CP (0.92) and a good quantifying guideline equation for ash (0.80) were developed in this study. The results of cross validation statistics for carcass descriptors, body composition using reference methods, inter-correlation between carcass descriptors and NIRS calibration, and the results of discrimination analysis for sex and strain identification will also be presented in the poster. The NIRS predicted daily gain and calculated daily gain from this experiment, and true daily gain (using data from another experiment with closely related broiler chicken from each of the six strains) will also be discussed in the paper.

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Performance Analysis of the PCAE and PCAD in FO-CDMA Communication Network (FO-CDMA 통신망에서 PCAE와 PCAD 동작특성 분석)

  • Kang, Tae-Gu;Choi, Young-Wan
    • Journal of The Institute of Information and Telecommunication Facilities Engineering
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.5-16
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    • 2003
  • We have analyzed the performance of optical matched filters in the fiber-optic code division multiple access (FO-CDMA) system based on optical parallel coupler access encoder (PCAE) and parallel coupler access decoder (PCAD) by experiment. In previous studies, the performance evaluation of the FO-CDMA system using SCAE and SCAD was not sufficiently accurate because they analyzed system performance only considering the first order signals. Since optical SCAE and SCAD intrinsically have high order signals of various patterns as the number of coupler increases, they change auto- and cross-correlation intensities. Thus, it is necessary to investigate properties of the PCAE and PCAD so that we may analyze the exact performance of system. In this paper, it is found that the peak to sidelobe ratio using the PCAE and PCAD increases as $\alpha$ (coupling coefficient) value increases. Also, we found that the proposed PCAE and PCAD are superior to SCAE and SCAD in performance improvement.

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Efficient OFDM Frame Synchronization Scheme for LED-ID Systems (LED-ID 시스템을 위한 효율적인 OFDM 프레임 동기화 방식)

  • Kim, Kyung-Ho;Park, Young-Sik;Hwang, Yu-Min;Kim, Jin-Young
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.411-417
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we propose an efficient OFDM(Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing) frame synchronization scheme for LED-ID(Identification) systems. A frame synchronization is an essential procedure for normal operations of OFDM systems. Bernoulli-Gaussian noise is considered in LED-ID systems' environments. In order to enhance the OFDM frame synchronization performance, we add a ROGS(Repeated Orthogonal Gold Sequence) to OFDM signals in the time domain. The power level of a ROGS does not affect a normal operation of the LED-ID systems. Frame synchronization can be achieved successfully over LED-ID channels interfered by impulsive noise owing to good auto and cross-correlation properties of the ROGS.

Analysis of Foot Shape and Size System of Male High School Students Using 3D Scan Data (3D 스캔 데이터를 활용한 남자 고등학생의 발 형태 및 치수체계 분석)

  • Shin, Yu Jin;Park, Soonjee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.53-67
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the foot shape and size specification of male high school students. 3D modeling programs such as 'Artec Studio', 'CATIA', and 'Auto CAD' measured the 3D scan data of 361 male high school students provided by KATS. Through principal factor analysis, 10 factors were extracted, including foot length, medial-lateral ratio, and foot length ratio. As the result of the cluster and ANOVA with post-hoc test (Duncan method), the differences among types were clarified. Type 1 (24.7%) represented outward medial-lateral ratio (M-L ratio) with the lowest instep, ankle and little deformed first toe. Type 2 (41.8%) was characterized by the shortest, even M-L ratio, thin ankle and heel, the highest instep and ankle. Type 3 (33.5%) showed the longest, inward M-L ratio, thick ankle and heel, and deformed first toe. As the cross-tabulation of foot length and ball circumference, 17.2 percent was not covered by KS standard; in addition, the foot length was longer than the KS standard. The correlation analysis of key dimensions showed that foot length and ball circumference were highly correlated with other items; therefore, regression equations were derived to estimate other foot measurements using these two items as independent variables.

Response Variability of Laminated Composite Plates with Random Elastic Modulus (탄성계수의 불확실성에 의한 복합적층판 구조의 응답변화도)

  • Noh, Hyuk-Chun
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.335-345
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    • 2008
  • In this study, we suggest a stochastic finite element scheme for the probabilistic analysis of the composite laminated plates, which have been applied to variety of mechanical structures due to their high strength to weight ratios. The applied concept in the formulation is the weighted integral method, which has been shown to give the most accurate results among others. We take into account the elastic modulus and in-plane shear modulus as random. For individual random parameters, independent stochastic field functions are assumed, and the effect of these random parameters on the response are estimated based on the exponentially varying auto- and cross-correlation functions. Based on example analyses, we suggest that composite plates show a less coefficient of variation than plates of isotropic and orthotropic materials. For the validation of the proposed scheme, Monte Carlo analysis is also performed, and the results are compared with each other.

Probabilistic Behavior of In-plane Structure due to Multiple Correlated Uncertain Material Constants (상호 상관관계가 있는 다중 재료상수의 불확실성에 의한 평면구조의 확률론적 거동)

  • Noh Hyuk-Chun
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.291-302
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    • 2005
  • Due to the importance of the parameter in structural response, the uncertain elastic modulus was located at the center of stochastic analysis, where the response variability caused by the uncertain system parameters is pursued. However when we analyze the so-called stochastic systems, as many parameters as possible must be included in the analysis if we want to obtain the response variability that can reach a true one, even in an approximate sense. In this paper, a formulation to determine the statistical behavior of in-plane structures due to multiple uncertain material parameters, i.e., elastic modulus and Poisson's ratio, is suggested. To this end, the polynomial expansion on the coefficients of constitutive matrix is employed. In constructing the modified auto-and cross-correlation functions, use is made of the general equation for n-th moment. For the computational purpose, the infinite series of stochastic sub-stiffness matrices is truncated preserving required accuracy. To demons4rate the validity of the proposed formulation, an exemplary example is analyzed and the results are compared with those obtained by means of classical Monte Carlo simulation, which is based on the local averaging scheme.

A Study of a Correlation Between Groundwater Level and Precipitation Using Statistical Time Series Analysis by Land Cover Types in Urban Areas (시계열 분석법을 이용한 도시지역 토지피복형태에 따른 지하수위와 강수량의 상관관계 분석)

  • Heo, Junyong;Kim, Taeyong;Park, Hyemin;Ha, Taejung;Kang, Hyungbin;Yang, Minjune
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.6_2
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    • pp.1819-1827
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    • 2021
  • Land-use/cover change caused by rapid urbanization in South Korea is one of the concerns in flood risk management because groundwater recharge by precipitation hardly occurs due to an increase in impermeable surfaces in urban areas. This study investigated the hydrologic effects of land-use/cover on groundwater recharge in the Yeonje-gu district of Busan, South Korea. A statistical time series analysis was conducted with temporal variations of precipitation and groundwater level to estimate lag-time based on correlation coefficients calculated from auto-correlation function (ACF), cross-correlation function (CCF), and moving average (MA) at five sites. Landform and land-use/cover within 250 m radius of the monitoring wells(GW01, GW02, GW03, GW04, and GW05) at five sites were identified by land cover and digital map using Arc-GIS software. Long lag-times (CCF: 42-71 days and MA: 148-161 days) were calculated at the sites covered by mainly impermeable surfaces(GW01, GW03, and GW05) while short lag-times(CCF: 4 days and MA: 67 days) were calculated at GW04 consisting of mainly permeable surfaces. The results suggest that lag-time would be one of the good indicators to evaluate the effects of land-use/cover on estimating groundwater recharge. The results of this study also provide guidance on the application of statistical time series analysis to environmentally important issues on creating an urban green space for natural groundwater recharge from precipitation in the city and developing a management plan for hydrological disaster prevention.

Analysis of the Variation Pattern of the Wave Climate in the Sokcho Coastal Zone (속초 연안의 파랑환경 변화양상 분석)

  • Cho, Hong-Yeon;Jeong, Weon-Mu;Baek, Won-Dae;Kim, Sang-Ik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.120-127
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    • 2012
  • Exploratory data analysis was carried out by using the long-term wave climate data in Sokcho coastal zone. The main features found in this study are as follows. The coefficient of variations on the wave height and period are about 0.11 and 0.02, respectively. It also shows that the annual components of the wave height and period are dominant and their amplitudes are 0.24 m and 0.56 seconds, respectively. The amount of intra-annual variation range is about two times greater than that of the inter-annual variation range. The distribution shapes of the wave data are very similar to the log-normal and GEV(generalized extreme value) functions. However, the goodness-of-fit tests based on the KS test show as "rejected" for all suggested density functions. Then, the structure of the timeseries wave height data is roughly estimated as AR(3) model. Based on the wave duration results, it is clearly shown that the continuous and maximum duration is decreased as a power function shape and the total duration is exponentially decreased. Meanwhile, the environment of the Sokcho coastal zone is classified as a wave-dominated environment.

Effect of Climate Factors on Tree-Ring Growth of Larix leptolepis Distributed in Korea (기후인자가 일본잎갈나무의 연륜생장에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lim, Jong Hwan;Sung, Joo Han;Chun, Jung Hwa;Shin, Man Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.105 no.1
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    • pp.122-131
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    • 2016
  • This study was conducted to analyze the effect of climatic variables on tree-ring growth of Larix leptolepis distributed in Korea by dendroclimatological method. For this, annual tree-ring growth data of Larix leptolepis collected by the $5^{th}$ National Forest Inventory were first organized to analyze yearly growth patterns of the species. To explain the relationship between tree-ring growth of Larix leptolepis and climatic variables, monthly temperature and precipitation data from 1950 to 2010 were compared with tree-ring growth data for each county. When tree-ring growth data were analyzed through cluster analysis based on similarity of climatic conditions, six clusters were identified. In addition, index chronology of Larix leptolepis for each cluster was produced through cross-dating and standardization procedures. The adequacy of index chronologies was tested using basic statistics such as mean sensitivity, auto correlation, signal to noise ratio, and expressed population signal of annual tree-ring growth. Response function analysis was finally conducted to reveal the relationship between tree-ring growth and climatic variables for each cluster. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information necessary for estimating local growth characteristics of Larix leptolepis and for predicting changes in tree growth patterns caused by climate change.