• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.55-76
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• 2010

This paper analyses interaction between yen/dollar exchange rates and NIKKEI index using bivariate GJR-GARCH(1,1) model. The data employed for the study is daily data series for the period of Jan. 4, 1995 through Aug. 30, 2009. One of main findings is that market inefficiency appears in the periods of financial crisis. Second, the volatility of exchange rates and stock returns has more increased in the wake of the volatility shock of the previous period during financial crisis than during non-financial crisis. Third, interestingly, the asymmetric volatility shock by bad news in those markets is bigger in financial crisis period than in non financial crisis. Fourth, in the period of current global financial crisis triggered by subprime mortgage crisis in U.S, volatility shock at the previous period is bigger than that of Asian financial crisis that happened in 1997. Lastly, the correlation between both returns of exchange rates and stock prices turns up positive according to the empirical estimation. This result may come from the fact that Japanese stock market does not have much attraction for international financial investment compared to stock markets of neighbouring countries like China, Korea and so on, while real sector's contribution to the economy is considered more importantly.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.67-90
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• 2021

This study found an interesting fact that the nonlinear relationship structure between volatility and trading volume changed before and after the COVID-19 pandemic according to empirical analysis using Bitcoin (BTC) market data that sensitively reflects investors' trading behavior. That is, their relationship appeared positive (+) in a stable market state before COVID-19 pandemic, as in theory based on the information flow paradigm. In a state under severe market stress due to COVID-19 pandemic, however, their dependence structure changed and even negative (-). This can be seen as a consequence of increased market stress caused by COVID-19 pandemics from a behavioral economics perspective, resulting in structural changes in the asset market and a significant impact on the nonlinear dependence of volatility and trading volume (in particular, their dependence at extreme quantiles). Hence, it should be recognized that in addition to information flows, psychological phenomena such as behavioral biases or herd behavior, which are closely related to market stress, can be a key in changing their dependence structure. For empirical analysis, this study performs a test of Ross (2015) for detecting a structural change, and proposes a Copula Regression Quantiles (CRQ) approach that can identify their nonlinear relationship structure and the asymmetric dependence in their distribution tails without the assumption of i.i.d. random variable. In addition, it was confirmed that when the relationship between their extreme values was analyzed by linear models, incorrect results could be derived due to model specification errors.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.959-973
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• 2014

Asset pricing models that account for asymmetric volatility in asset prices have been recently proposed. This article presents an efficient Bayesian method to analyze asset-pricing models. The method is developed by devising a partially collapsed Gibbs sampler that capitalizes on the functional incompatibility of conditional distributions without complicating the updates of model components. The proposed method is illustrated using simulated data and applied to daily S&P 500 data observed from September 1980 to August 2014.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.137-167
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• 2013

This article estimates the scale of impact of expanding governmental fiscal expenditure for R&D investment on the private business enterprise's investment for R&D, and the relationship between business enterprise and university for expanding investment of R&D. According to my results, first, an expanding fiscal expenditure from government for R&D investment leads to increase R&D investment from business enterprise. However, an expanding expenditure from university rather leads to decrease R&D investment from business enterprise. Secondly, the crowding-out effect of expanding R&D investment from University on business enterprise's is very strong, and it is affected by structural changes such as the country's economic power, fiscal stance and cyclical volatility. Third, the more governmental expenditure on university expansive is, the stronger asymmetric relationship between business enterprise and university is, and investment sources of university from business enterprise is the main factor of this relationship. Finally, it is not easy to solve out this asymmetric relationship even through the governmental subsidy.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.181-190
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• 2018

The goal of this study is empirically to investigate the asymmetric relationship between two variables using the dry cargo freight rates and raw material price data from January 2012 to May 2018. First, we estimate the asymmetry of macroeconomic indicators of commodity prices by using a two - step threshold cointegration test. Second, the asymmetric relation test of the trade balance of existing commodity price changes is tested by bypassing to the high frequency dry cargo freight rate index. As a result of the estimation, in contrast to the existing linear analysis, each boundary value for the lower limit and the upper limit has different asymmetry. This implies that the period of fluctuation of the sudden residual that causes irregular rate of return fluctuations does not establish a long term equilibrium relationship between the raw material price and the dry cargo freight rate. Therefore, in order to consider the sudden price change in the analysis, it is necessary to include the band of inaction that controls the irregular volatility, which is consistent with the asymmetry hypothesis.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.271-281
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• 2005

Zokian(1993) and Li and Li(1996) developed TARCH(Threshold ARCH) model, considering the asymmetries in volatility. The models are based on Engle(1982)'s ARCH model and Bollerslev(1986)'s GARCH model. However, two TARCH models can be expressed a common model through Box Cox Power transformation, which was used by Higgins and Bera(1992) for developing NARCH(nonlinear ARCH) model. This article shows the PTARCH(Power transformation TARCH) model is necessary in some condition, and it checks the fact that PTARCH model has better performance comparing estimates and RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) with those of Zakoian's TARCH model and Li and Li's TARCH model. PTARCH model would give contribution in asymmetric study as well as heteroscedastic study.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.889-896
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• 2012

In this paper, we propose a statistic to measure investor sentiment. It is a usual phenomenon that an asymmetric volatility (referred to as the leverage effect) is observed in financial time series and is more sensitive to bad news rather than good news. In a bubble state, investors tend to continuously speculate on financial instruments because of optimism about the future; subsequently, prices tend to abnormally increase for a long time. Estimators of the transformation parameter and the skewness based on Yeo-Johnson transformed GARCH models are employed to check whether a bubble or abnormality exist. We verify the appropriacy of the proposed interpretation through analyses of KOSPI and NIKKEI.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.177-187
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• 2020

This article is concerned with the issue of forecasting and evaluation of threshold-asymmetric volatility models for time series of count data. In particular, threshold integer-valued models with conditional Poisson and conditional negative binomial distributions are highlighted. Based on the parametric bootstrap method, some evaluation measures are discussed in terms of one-step ahead forecasting. A parametric bootstrap procedure is explained from which directional measure, magnitude measure and expected cost of misclassification are discussed to evaluate competing models. The cholera data in Bangladesh from 1988 to 2016 is analyzed as a real application.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.41-64
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• 2011

This article investigates the interrelationships in daily returns using fractionally integrated error correction term and volatilities using constant conditional correlation and dynamic conditional correlation GARCH with asymmetries between Capesize and Panamax markets. Our findings are as follows. First, for the fractionally cointegrated error correction model, there is a unidirectional relationship in returns from the Panamax market to the Capesize market, but a bidirectional causal relationship prevails for the traditional error correction models. Second, the coefficients for the error correction term are all statistically significant. Of particular interest are the signs of the estimates for the error correction term, which are all negative for the Capesize return equation and all positive for the Panamax return. Third, there are bidirectional volatility spillovers between both markets and the direction of the information flow seems to be stronger from Panamax to Capesize. Fourth, the coefficients for the asymmetric term are all significantly positive in the Capesize market, but the Panamax market does not have a significant effect. However, the coefficients for the asymmetric term are all significant, implying that the leverage effect does exist in the Capesize and Panamax markets.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.3-22
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• 2016

In this study, I examine mutual shock spillover effects among interest rate differences, won-dollar foreign exchange change rates, and stock market returns in Korea during the daily sample period from the beginning of 1995 to the October 16, 2015, using the multivariate GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) BEKK (Baba-Engle-Kraft-Kroner) model framework. Major findings are as follows. Throughout the 6 model estimation results of variance equations determining return spillovers covered from symmetric and asymmetric models of total sample period and two crisis sub-sample periods composed of Korean FX Crisis Times and Global Financial Crisis Times, shock spillovers are shown to exist mainly from stock market return shocks. Stock market shocks including down-shocks from the asymmetric models are shown to transfer to those other two markets most successfully. Therefore it is most important to maintain stable financial markets that a policy design for stock market stabilization such as mitigating stock market volatility.