• Title/Summary/Keyword: assessment framework

Search Result 991, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

Climate Change Scenario Generation and Uncertainty Assessment: Multiple variables and potential hydrological impacts

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Park, Rae-Gun;Choi, Byung-Kyu;Park, Se-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2010.05a
    • /
    • pp.268-272
    • /
    • 2010
  • The research presented here represents a collaborative effort with the SFWMD on developing scenarios for future climate for the SFWMD area. The project focuses on developing methodology for simulating precipitation representing both natural quasi-oscillatory modes of variability in these climate variables and also the secular trends projected by the IPCC scenarios that are publicly available. This study specifically provides the results for precipitation modeling. The starting point for the modeling was the work of Tebaldi et al that is considered one of the benchmarks for bias correction and model combination in this context. This model was extended in the framework of a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) to formally and simultaneously consider biases between the models and observations over the historical period and trends in the observations and models out to the end of the 21st century in line with the different ensemble model simulations from the IPCC scenarios. The low frequency variability is modeled using the previously developed Wavelet Autoregressive Model (WARM), with a correction to preserve the variance associated with the full series from the HBM projections. The assumption here is that there is no useful information in the IPCC models as to the change in the low frequency variability of the regional, seasonal precipitation. This assumption is based on a preliminary analysis of these models historical and future output. Thus, preserving the low frequency structure from the historical series into the future emerges as a pragmatic goal. We find that there are significant biases between the observations and the base case scenarios for precipitation. The biases vary across models, and are shrunk using posterior maximum likelihood to allow some models to depart from the central tendency while allowing others to cluster and reduce biases by averaging. The projected changes in the future precipitation are small compared to the bias between model base run and observations and also relative to the inter-annual and decadal variability in the precipitation.

  • PDF

Probabilistic Seepage Analysis Considering the Spatial Variability of Permeability for Layered Soil (투수계수의 공간적 변동성을 고려한 층상지반에 대한 확률론적 침투해석)

  • Cho, Sung-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.28 no.12
    • /
    • pp.65-76
    • /
    • 2012
  • In this study, probabilistic analysis of seepage through a two-layered soil foundation was performed. The hydraulic conductivity of soil shows significant spatial variations in different layers because of stratification; further, it varies on a smaller scale within each individual layer. Therefore, the deterministic seepage analysis method was extended to develop a probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties and spatial variation of the hydraulic conductivity in a layered soil profile. Two-dimensional random fields were generated on the basis of the Karhunen-Lo$\grave{e}$ve expansion in a manner consistent with a specified marginal distribution function and an autocorrelation function for each layer. A Monte Carlo simulation was then used to determine the statistical response based on the random fields. A series of analyses were performed to verify the application potential of the proposed method and to study the effects of uncertainty due to the spatial heterogeneity on the seepage behavior of two-layered soil foundation beneath water retaining structure. The results showed that the probabilistic framework can be used to efficiently consider the various flow patterns caused by the spatial variability of the hydraulic conductivity in seepage assessment for a layered soil foundation.

A Study of the Employee's Attitude Toward Operation of the Hospital Material Requirements Planning System(HMRPS) in University Hospitals (병원 종합 물류시스템 운영에 대한 관련직원들의 인식)

  • Lee, Kwang-Yong;Yu, Seung-Hum;Sohn, Tae-Yong
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
    • /
    • v.4 no.2
    • /
    • pp.266-285
    • /
    • 1999
  • The purpose of this study is to identify influencing factors for successful introduction, implementation and management of HMRPS through assessment of the employees attitude toward HMRPS in technical, administrative, and organization behavioral areas. Data were collected from 157 HMRPS employee members' self-reporting questionnaire in three university hospitals in the city of Seoul and Kyonggi Province from November 5 to November 10, 1997. Relevant literature on industry company MPR system theory was reviewed to develop the theoretical framework. The results were as follows: The employee's recognition of tangible benefit were more significantly influenced success than intangible benefit for successful operation relating the HMRPS. Concerning the employee's recognition of the successful HMRPS and the factor of influenced success was significantly positive correlation between tangible and intangible benefits and success factor in technical, administrative, and organizational behavior area. This study showed that major factor affecting the employee's recognition of tangible and intangible benefit for successful HMRPS. For tangible benefits; Success factors in the technical areas were quality of the data and information, efficiency of inventory management and rescheduling of operation plan. Success factors in the administrative areas were: role of top management. Success factors in the organization behavioral areas were; simplicity of the HMRPS, human resistance to change. For intangible benefits; Success factors in the organization behavioral areas were; user involvement, simplicity of HMRPS, human resistance to change. Futhermore as the exact evaluation of successful factors of HMRPS implement is needed, research for the development of systemic variables of physical distribution system control, methods, capacity of system, duration and other environment in many of 30 hospitals or more, and for the empirical study for HMRPS.

  • PDF

Development of Home Visiting Nursing Standards Base on a Long-Term Care Insurance for the Elderly Program (노인장기요양보험제도에 의한 방문간호 표준개발)

  • Kim, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
    • /
    • v.24 no.2
    • /
    • pp.285-301
    • /
    • 2010
  • Purpose: The study was aimed at qualitatively enhancing and promoting a home visiting nursing program established in Korea on July 1, 2008, as part of the Long-Term Care Insurance for the Elderly program. Methods: Structural, procedural and consequential aspects of home visiting nursing care wereclassified on the horizontal axis by applying the standard notions for the evaluation of medical care (Donabedian, 1998). At the same time, the home visiting nursing care service support system and the service provision system weredivided on the vertical axis with reference to the accreditation standards for home visiting nursing care organizations suggested by the Joint Commission on the Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO, 2008). The data were collected from June 4, 2008 to October 27, 2008, and were analyzed using SPSS ver. 15.0. Results: Twenty-two (proposed) standards, centered on the standard elements under the conceptual framework of the study, were developed, and comprised structural aspects (n=10), procedural aspects (n=6) and consequential aspects (n=6). Those criteria and indicators underwent two content validity surveys among groups of home visiting nursing care research and training experts. The research produced 22 proposed standards, 50 proposed criteria and 166 proposed indicators. Conclusion: The home visiting nursing care standards developed pursuant to the Long-Term Care Insurance for the Elderly Act and the applicability of these standards need to be verified by home visiting nurses. These proposed standards should prove useful in developing an assessment tool to encourage the qualitative enhancement of visiting nursing care in Korea.

Assessment of Risk Management Practices of CM Enterprise: The Need for an Enterprise-level Risk Management Framework (CM기업 현장운영 리스크 관리 실태 분석을 통한 효율적 관리 방안 제시)

  • Park, Kyungmo;Lee, Hyun Woo;Kim, Changduk
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.15 no.3
    • /
    • pp.66-73
    • /
    • 2014
  • The Korean construction industry has been severely impacted by the 2008 global financial crisis, which resulted in a significant reduction in the overall contract amount. For survival, many construction management (CM) companies had to adapt a strategy of lowering bid prices to maintain their competitiveness. As a result of the strategy, companies faced a number of issues including their decreased capability in risk management. However, most risk management-related studies focused on construction risk management, yet these studies lacked consideration of enterprise-level risk management practices. To fill the gap, the objectives of the present study are (1) to investigate, the risk management practices of Korean CM companies, (2) to identify factors that determine efficient enterprise-level risk management practices, and (3) to propose a module for the development of enterprise-level risk management. Lastly, the efficiency of the proposed development module was validated by using a survey.

Climate Change and Regional Land Use Planning : The Formulation of California Senate Bill No. 375 (기후변화와 광역토지사용계획: 캘리포니아의 Senate Bill No. 375의 사례)

  • Choi, Hyun-Sun;Choi, Simon
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
    • /
    • v.9 no.1
    • /
    • pp.3-29
    • /
    • 2010
  • This paper explores how effectively the newly introduced planning process - California Senate Bill No. 375 will achieve the regional GHG emissions target under the California policy and planning framework and how well incentive based environmental policy might perform. The new legislation creates a future growth scenario to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with incentives as means of implementation of AB 32 - the Global Warming Solution Act of 2006 and includes five important policy and planning aspects: 1) the role of sustainable communities strategies (SCS) as one of the key elements in their regional transportation plans; 2) planning for transportation and housing; 3) specified incentives for the implementation of SCS; 4) the regional planning approach toward reducing GHG emissions; and the role of the California Air Resources Board to establish the regional GHG emissions target. This has significant implications for regional and environmental planning with incentives - resources allocation and approval process.

  • PDF

A Study on Domestic and Foreign Research Movement of the Eco-tourism Certification/Designation System and Its Application in Korea (국내·외 생태관광 인증/지정제도 동향 및 국내 제도 도입 방안)

  • Choi, Hee-Sun;Kim, Hyun-Ae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
    • /
    • v.15 no.1
    • /
    • pp.73-87
    • /
    • 2012
  • This study was conducted to provide sustainable measures for conservation and management to protect valuable natural/ecological resources, offer differentiated quality assurance services for eco-tourism products, and explore measures for eco-tourism certification/designation systems. To achieve its goals, the study discussed domestic and overseas trends and literatures that concern eco-tourism certification/designation system and investigated case studies that were presently operational. A group of experts and a group of non-experts were surveyed separatedly to investigate the awareness of the national eco-tourism certification/designation system. The results from the investigation indicate that Europe, since the late 1990s to early 2000, has actively introduced a system that establishes and operates a dedicated institution, and European members have created a cooperation framework to formulate international partnerships and develop standardized assessment benchmarks to adhere to the goals of the system, the period for certification was designated from one year to five years, and renewals were granted based on periodic monitoring and reassessment. In Korea, from early 2000, the Ministry of Culture, Sorts and Tourism and other organizations have certified product quality and assessed travel products and national park tour programs. The certification period was established to be set between one and three years, and the vast majority were not reassessed. Upon investigating the results for awareness of national eco-tourism certification/designation system, a high number of respondents agreed with the need to establish a eco-tourism certification/designation system (90% of respondents), and the respondents cited eco-tourism quality assurance, conservation of value, means to maintain established institutions, and environmental education and information as reasons for needing a certification/designation system. In Korea, a certification/designation system for the eco-tourism industry is presently in operation, but the system regulates target institutions based on their characteristics. Therefore, this study proposes its suggestions via various categories, including designated institutions, designated purpose, designated subjects, designated organization, laws, regulations, and incentives.

Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

  • Zalk, David M.;Spee, Ton;Gillen, Matt;Lentz, Thomas J.;Garrod, Andrew;Evans, Paul;Swuste, Paul
    • Safety and Health at Work
    • /
    • v.2 no.2
    • /
    • pp.105-121
    • /
    • 2011
  • Objectives: This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Methods: Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. Results: This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. Conclusion: The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions.

Uncertainty Assessment of Stationary ADCP Discharge Measurement using Standardized GUM Framework (GUM 표준안을 이용한 고정 측정 방식 ADCP의 유량 측정 불확도 평가)

  • Kim, Dongsu;Kim, Jongmin;Kim, Seojun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2016.05a
    • /
    • pp.102-102
    • /
    • 2016
  • 일반적으로 수자원분야에서 사용되는 기초 자료 중 하나인 유량측정 성과는 설계홍수량 산정, 지점의 수위-유량 관계곡선식 산정 등 유역의 이 치수를 위한 설계나 장 단기 계획을 수립하기 위한 기초자료로서 사용되어지고 있으며, 2차원 및 3차원 수치해석을 위한 입력 자료로 사용되고 있다. 유량측정의 성과는 이렇듯 다양한 방면으로 활용되어지고 있는 반면 현재 국내에서는 측정의 성과에 대한 신뢰성을 나타낼 수 있는 지표가 제시되고 있지 않은 상황이다. ISO(International Organization for Standardization) 및 BIPM, IFCC 등 6개 기구는 공동으로 측정 불확도 산정 지침서(GUM, Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, 1993)을 제시하였고, 최근 WMO에서는 GUM 표준안을 하천 유량 측정 불확도 산정방법으로 공인하고 있다(JCGM 100, 2008). 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 최근 유량 측정에 활발하게 사용되고 있는 ADCP의 유량 측정 성과에 대한 불확도를 GUM 표준안 기반으로 평가하고자 한다. ADCP의 측정 방법은 고정측정 방식이고, 유속-면적법으로 계산된 유량에 대한 측정 불확도를 평가하였다. 실험은 실규모에서 유량을 제어할 수 있는 건설기술연구원 하천실험센터에서 수행되었고, 사용된 유속 측정 장비는 SonTek사의 micro-ADV와 ADCP M9을 사용하였으며, ADV로 측정된 결과를 참값으로 가정한 후 실험 및 분석을 수행하였다. GUM 표준안 기반의 불확도 평가를 위해 사용된 관계식 및 불확도 요인들은 선행 연구들을 기반으로 하되, 본 실험을 통해 분석된 수치로 변경하여 최종적인 ADCP 유량 산정 불확도를 평가하였다. 본 연구에서는 고정측정 방식 ADCP의 유량 측정 결과를 GUM 표준안에 적용하여 불확도를 평가하였으며, 추가적인 연구를 진행하여 일반적으로 사용하고 있는 이동측정 방식 ADCP의 유량 측정 결과에 대한 불확도를 평가할 수 있을 것으로 기대되며, 이러한 결과는 설계 홍수량 산정이나 수위-유량 관계 곡선식 산정 등 다양한 분야에 적용할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

  • PDF

Spatially Distributed Model for Soil Loss Vulnerability Assessment in Mekong River Basin

  • Thuy, H.T.;Lee, Giha;Lee, Daeeop;Sophal, Try
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2016.05a
    • /
    • pp.188-188
    • /
    • 2016
  • The Mekong which is one of the world's most significant rivers plays an extremely important role to South East Asia. Lying across six riparian countries including China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam and being a greatly biological and ecological diversity of fishes, the river supports a huge population who living along Mekong Basin River. Therefore, much attention has been focused on the giant Mekong Basin River, particularly, the soil erosion and sedimentation problems which rise critical impacts on irrigation, agriculture, navigation, fisheries and aquatic ecosystem. In fact, there have been many methods to calculate these problems; however, in the case of Mekong, the available data have significant limitations because of large area (about 795 00 km2) and a failure by management agencies to analyze and publish of developing countries in Mekong Basin River. As a result, the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) model in a GIS (Geographic Information System) framework was applied in this study. The USLE factors contain the rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length, steepness, crop management and conservation practices which are represented by raster layers in GIS environment. In the final step, these factors were multiplied together to estimate the soil erosion rate in the study area by using spatial analyst tool in the ArcGIS 10.2 software. The spatial distribution of soil loss result will be used to support river basin management to find the subtainable management practices by showing the position and amount of soil erosion and sediment load in the dangerous areas during the selected 56- year period from 1952 to 2007.

  • PDF