• Title/Summary/Keyword: artificial intelligence (AI)

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Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

Research-platform Design for the Korean Smart Greenhouse Based on Cloud Computing (클라우드 기반 한국형 스마트 온실 연구 플랫폼 설계 방안)

  • Baek, Jeong-Hyun;Heo, Jeong-Wook;Kim, Hyun-Hwan;Hong, Youngsin;Lee, Jae-Su
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.27-33
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    • 2018
  • This study was performed to review the domestic and international smart farm service model based on the convergence of agriculture and information & communication technology and derived various factors needed to improve the Korean smart greenhouse. Studies on modelling of crop growth environment in domestic smart farms were limited. And it took a lot of time to build research infrastructure. The cloud-based research platform as an alternative is needed. This platform can provide an infrastructure for comprehensive data storage and analysis as it manages the growth model of cloud-based integrated data, growth environment model, actuators control model, and farm management as well as knowledge-based expert systems and farm dashboard. Therefore, the cloud-based research platform can be applied as to quantify the relationships among various factors, such as the growth environment of crops, productivity, and actuators control. In addition, it will enable researchers to analyze quantitatively the growth environment model of crops, plants, and growth by utilizing big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligences.

A Development of Welding Information Management and Defect Inspection Platform based on Artificial Intelligent for Shipbuilding and Maritime Industry (인공지능 기반 조선해양 용접 품질 정보 관리 및 결함 검사 플랫폼 개발)

  • Hwang, Hun-Gyu;Kim, Bae-Sung;Woo, Yun-Tae;Yoon, Young-Wook;Shin, Sung-chul;Oh, Sang-jin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.193-201
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    • 2021
  • The welding has a high proportion of the production and drying of ships or offshore plants. Non-destructive testing is carried out to verify the quality of welds in Korea, radiography test (RT) is mainly used. Currently, most shipyards adopt analog-type techniques to print the films through the shoot of welding parts. Therefore, the time required from radiography test to pass or fail judgment is long and complex, and is being manually carried out by qualified inspectors. To improve this problem, this paper covers a platform for scanning and digitalizing RT films occurring in shipyards with high resolution, accumulating them in management servers, and applying artificial intelligence (AI) technology to detect welding defects. To do this, we describe the process of designing and developing RT film scanning equipment, welding inspection information integrated management platform, fault reading algorithms, visualization software, and testing and verification of each developed element in conjunction.

Development of a Stock Trading System Using M & W Wave Patterns and Genetic Algorithms (M&W 파동 패턴과 유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 주식 매매 시스템 개발)

  • Yang, Hoonseok;Kim, Sunwoong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.63-83
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    • 2019
  • Investors prefer to look for trading points based on the graph shown in the chart rather than complex analysis, such as corporate intrinsic value analysis and technical auxiliary index analysis. However, the pattern analysis technique is difficult and computerized less than the needs of users. In recent years, there have been many cases of studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques including neural networks in the field of artificial intelligence(AI). In particular, the development of IT technology has made it easier to analyze a huge number of chart data to find patterns that can predict stock prices. Although short-term forecasting power of prices has increased in terms of performance so far, long-term forecasting power is limited and is used in short-term trading rather than long-term investment. Other studies have focused on mechanically and accurately identifying patterns that were not recognized by past technology, but it can be vulnerable in practical areas because it is a separate matter whether the patterns found are suitable for trading. When they find a meaningful pattern, they find a point that matches the pattern. They then measure their performance after n days, assuming that they have bought at that point in time. Since this approach is to calculate virtual revenues, there can be many disparities with reality. The existing research method tries to find a pattern with stock price prediction power, but this study proposes to define the patterns first and to trade when the pattern with high success probability appears. The M & W wave pattern published by Merrill(1980) is simple because we can distinguish it by five turning points. Despite the report that some patterns have price predictability, there were no performance reports used in the actual market. The simplicity of a pattern consisting of five turning points has the advantage of reducing the cost of increasing pattern recognition accuracy. In this study, 16 patterns of up conversion and 16 patterns of down conversion are reclassified into ten groups so that they can be easily implemented by the system. Only one pattern with high success rate per group is selected for trading. Patterns that had a high probability of success in the past are likely to succeed in the future. So we trade when such a pattern occurs. It is a real situation because it is measured assuming that both the buy and sell have been executed. We tested three ways to calculate the turning point. The first method, the minimum change rate zig-zag method, removes price movements below a certain percentage and calculates the vertex. In the second method, high-low line zig-zag, the high price that meets the n-day high price line is calculated at the peak price, and the low price that meets the n-day low price line is calculated at the valley price. In the third method, the swing wave method, the high price in the center higher than n high prices on the left and right is calculated as the peak price. If the central low price is lower than the n low price on the left and right, it is calculated as valley price. The swing wave method was superior to the other methods in the test results. It is interpreted that the transaction after checking the completion of the pattern is more effective than the transaction in the unfinished state of the pattern. Genetic algorithms(GA) were the most suitable solution, although it was virtually impossible to find patterns with high success rates because the number of cases was too large in this simulation. We also performed the simulation using the Walk-forward Analysis(WFA) method, which tests the test section and the application section separately. So we were able to respond appropriately to market changes. In this study, we optimize the stock portfolio because there is a risk of over-optimized if we implement the variable optimality for each individual stock. Therefore, we selected the number of constituent stocks as 20 to increase the effect of diversified investment while avoiding optimization. We tested the KOSPI market by dividing it into six categories. In the results, the portfolio of small cap stock was the most successful and the high vol stock portfolio was the second best. This shows that patterns need to have some price volatility in order for patterns to be shaped, but volatility is not the best.

Corporate Bond Rating Using Various Multiclass Support Vector Machines (다양한 다분류 SVM을 적용한 기업채권평가)

  • Ahn, Hyun-Chul;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.157-178
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    • 2009
  • Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.

Current and Future Perspectives of Lung Organoid and Lung-on-chip in Biomedical and Pharmaceutical Applications

  • Junhyoung Lee;Jimin Park;Sanghun Kim;Esther Han;Sungho Maeng;Jiyou Han
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.339-355
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    • 2024
  • The pulmonary system is a highly complex system that can only be understood by integrating its functional and structural aspects. Hence, in vivo animal models are generally used for pathological studies of pulmonary diseases and the evaluation of inhalation toxicity. However, to reduce the number of animals used in experimentation and with the consideration of animal welfare, alternative methods have been extensively developed. Notably, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) have agreed to prohibit animal testing after 2030. Therefore, the latest advances in biotechnology are revolutionizing the approach to developing in vitro inhalation models. For example, lung organ-on-a-chip (OoC) and organoid models have been intensively studied alongside advancements in three-dimensional (3D) bioprinting and microfluidic systems. These modeling systems can more precisely imitate the complex biological environment compared to traditional in vivo animal experiments. This review paper addresses multiple aspects of the recent in vitro modeling systems of lung OoC and organoids. It includes discussions on the use of endothelial cells, epithelial cells, and fibroblasts composed of lung alveoli generated from pluripotent stem cells or cancer cells. Moreover, it covers lung air-liquid interface (ALI) systems, transwell membrane materials, and in silico models using artificial intelligence (AI) for the establishment and evaluation of in vitro pulmonary systems.

Christian Education for Human Spirit Transformation (인간 영의 변형을 위한 기독교교육)

  • Woo, Ji Yeon
    • Journal of Christian Education in Korea
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    • v.66
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    • pp.413-437
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    • 2021
  • Humans are created as spiritual beings that can relate to God. However, when a human spirit refuses to transform through confronting God, it experiences a crisis. A spiritual crisis results from disconnecting with God, who is the ultimate foundation, but we humans try to overcome such absence through accomplishments and efforts. In this technological age, the ethics issues of AI (Artificial Intelligence), robots, and cloning are related to anthropology. The development of the mind, heart, and logic cannot suggest a basis for destruction and confusion as much as the development of the world. In fact, education focused on the human mind cannot be considered holistic. Mind, together with thought, will, and belief, plays a crucial role in making choices and leading a human life. So it is actively studied in other domains other than Christian education. However, although the human spirit takes care of some territory of humanity, unlike the mind, it can neither be partial nor fragmentary. Instead, it manages the transformation that influences the core of human life. Therefore, Christian education must clearly concentrate on the spirit rather than on other human elements, intentionally concerning spiritual transformation through encounters with God. In other words, Christian education is the passage connecting a human spirit to God's presence at work, which enables us to understand the human being as a whole. For this, we must put our efforts to increase the chances of encountering God through Christian education. While "Encounter" requires both parties' interaction, "Transformation" stresses God as the main agent and His proactive nature. I also want to emphasize "worship" as the opportunity to communicate and experience God in our daily lives. By examining the preparation and the process of the spiritual transformation of humans, this paper would offer a theological foundation for continued transformation of the human spirit in the faith community, rather than personal experience or conviction.

A Study on the Potential Use of ChatGPT in Public Design Policy Decision-Making (공공디자인 정책 결정에 ChatGPT의 활용 가능성에 관한연구)

  • Son, Dong Joo;Yoon, Myeong Han
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.172-189
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    • 2023
  • This study investigated the potential contribution of ChatGPT, a massive language and information model, in the decision-making process of public design policies, focusing on the characteristics inherent to public design. Public design utilizes the principles and approaches of design to address societal issues and aims to improve public services. In order to formulate public design policies and plans, it is essential to base them on extensive data, including the general status of the area, population demographics, infrastructure, resources, safety, existing policies, legal regulations, landscape, spatial conditions, current state of public design, and regional issues. Therefore, public design is a field of design research that encompasses a vast amount of data and language. Considering the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence technology and the significance of public design, this study aims to explore how massive language and information models like ChatGPT can contribute to public design policies. Alongside, we reviewed the concepts and principles of public design, its role in policy development and implementation, and examined the overview and features of ChatGPT, including its application cases and preceding research to determine its utility in the decision-making process of public design policies. The study found that ChatGPT could offer substantial language information during the formulation of public design policies and assist in decision-making. In particular, ChatGPT proved useful in providing various perspectives and swiftly supplying information necessary for policy decisions. Additionally, the trend of utilizing artificial intelligence in government policy development was confirmed through various studies. However, the usage of ChatGPT also unveiled ethical, legal, and personal privacy issues. Notably, ethical dilemmas were raised, along with issues related to bias and fairness. To practically apply ChatGPT in the decision-making process of public design policies, first, it is necessary to enhance the capacities of policy developers and public design experts to a certain extent. Second, it is advisable to create a provisional regulation named 'Ordinance on the Use of AI in Policy' to continuously refine the utilization until legal adjustments are made. Currently, implementing these two strategies is deemed necessary. Consequently, employing massive language and information models like ChatGPT in the public design field, which harbors a vast amount of language, holds substantial value.

Analysis of the Impact of Satellite Remote Sensing Information on the Prediction Performance of Ungauged Basin Stream Flow Using Data-driven Models (인공위성 원격 탐사 정보가 자료 기반 모형의 미계측 유역 하천유출 예측성능에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Seo, Jiyu;Jung, Haeun;Won, Jeongeun;Choi, Sijung;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.147-159
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    • 2024
  • Lack of streamflow observations makes model calibration difficult and limits model performance improvement. Satellite-based remote sensing products offer a new alternative as they can be actively utilized to obtain hydrological data. Recently, several studies have shown that artificial intelligence-based solutions are more appropriate than traditional conceptual and physical models. In this study, a data-driven approach combining various recurrent neural networks and decision tree-based algorithms is proposed, and the utilization of satellite remote sensing information for AI training is investigated. The satellite imagery used in this study is from MODIS and SMAP. The proposed approach is validated using publicly available data from 25 watersheds. Inspired by the traditional regionalization approach, a strategy is adopted to learn one data-driven model by integrating data from all basins, and the potential of the proposed approach is evaluated by using a leave-one-out cross-validation regionalization setting to predict streamflow from different basins with one model. The GRU + Light GBM model was found to be a suitable model combination for target basins and showed good streamflow prediction performance in ungauged basins (The average model efficiency coefficient for predicting daily streamflow in 25 ungauged basins is 0.7187) except for the period when streamflow is very small. The influence of satellite remote sensing information was found to be up to 10%, with the additional application of satellite information having a greater impact on streamflow prediction during low or dry seasons than during wet or normal seasons.

Data-centric XAI-driven Data Imputation of Molecular Structure and QSAR Model for Toxicity Prediction of 3D Printing Chemicals (3D 프린팅 소재 화학물질의 독성 예측을 위한 Data-centric XAI 기반 분자 구조 Data Imputation과 QSAR 모델 개발)

  • ChanHyeok Jeong;SangYoun Kim;SungKu Heo;Shahzeb Tariq;MinHyeok Shin;ChangKyoo Yoo
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.61 no.4
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    • pp.523-541
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    • 2023
  • As accessibility to 3D printers increases, there is a growing frequency of exposure to chemicals associated with 3D printing. However, research on the toxicity and harmfulness of chemicals generated by 3D printing is insufficient, and the performance of toxicity prediction using in silico techniques is limited due to missing molecular structure data. In this study, quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model based on data-centric AI approach was developed to predict the toxicity of new 3D printing materials by imputing missing values in molecular descriptors. First, MissForest algorithm was utilized to impute missing values in molecular descriptors of hazardous 3D printing materials. Then, based on four different machine learning models (decision tree, random forest, XGBoost, SVM), a machine learning (ML)-based QSAR model was developed to predict the bioconcentration factor (Log BCF), octanol-air partition coefficient (Log Koa), and partition coefficient (Log P). Furthermore, the reliability of the data-centric QSAR model was validated through the Tree-SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method, which is one of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques. The proposed imputation method based on the MissForest enlarged approximately 2.5 times more molecular structure data compared to the existing data. Based on the imputed dataset of molecular descriptor, the developed data-centric QSAR model achieved approximately 73%, 76% and 92% of prediction performance for Log BCF, Log Koa, and Log P, respectively. Lastly, Tree-SHAP analysis demonstrated that the data-centric-based QSAR model achieved high prediction performance for toxicity information by identifying key molecular descriptors highly correlated with toxicity indices. Therefore, the proposed QSAR model based on the data-centric XAI approach can be extended to predict the toxicity of potential pollutants in emerging printing chemicals, chemical process, semiconductor or display process.