• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.12 no.19
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• pp.67-72
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• 1989

This paper concerns with the decision maker has the job of forecasting capital investments and operating expenses to aid the decision making in choosing and evaluating present annual and future alternatives. The cost estimating function eventually analysis, evaluates and choose the alternatives. And also, the marginal analysis performed originally from a preliminary design of some sort, and eventually plans are made to investigate investment possibilities. This paper provide the discounted net cash flows and the present, annual and future worth methods. In despite of any choice for an analytical methods, there remains the problems of predicting and assessments certain future events. Therefore, these models dealing with the optimal plant sizing, equipments replacement, and lease or buy will be discussed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.6
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• pp.547-559
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• 2014

The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the complementary relationship-based evapotranspiration models, namely, advection-aridity (AA) model of Brutsaert and Stricker and the CRAE model of Morton for estimating actual evapotranspiration. Both models were applied to the Bokhacheon middle-upper watershed, and their estimates were evaluated against the water balance estimate. The calculation was made on a daily basis and comparison was made on monthly and annual bases. For comparison, the water balance estimates were not obtained from the observed precipitation and streamflow data but were based on the simulated data by using integrated watershed model, SWAT-K which is the revised version of SWAT. The reason not to directly use the observed data for water balance estimate is that the credible record period is not sufficient and the streamflow has been altered due to water use and release. Overall, the results showed that both AA model and CRAE model with their original parameters overestimate annual and monthly evapotranspiration, and the large difference between the complementary relationship-based approach and the water balance approach occurs especially for the dry season from Nov. to Mar. It was found out that the parameters, particularly for the advection related parameter, must be recalibrated to accurately produce monthly and annual regional evapotranspiration for this study area.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.613-639
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• 2017

A Maximum Entropy (ME) Model and an Analytical Model are analyzed in assessing Kapenta stock in Lake Kariba. The ME model estimates a Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) of 25,372 tons and a corresponding effort of 109,731 fishing nights suggesting overcapacity in the lake at current effort level. The model estimates a declining stock from 1988 to 2009. The Analytical Model estimates an Acceptable Biological Catch (ABC) annually and a corresponding fishing mortality (F) of 1.210/year which is higher than the prevailing fishing mortality of 0.927/year. The ME and Analytical Models estimate a similar biomass in the reference year 1982 confirming that both models are applicable to the stock. The ME model estimates annual biomass which has been gradually declining until less than one third of maximum biomass (156,047 tons) in 1988. It implies that the stock has been overexploited due to yieldings over the level of ABC compared to variations in annual catch, even if the recent prevailing catch levels were not up to the level of MSY. In comparison, the Analytical Model provides a more conservative value of ABC compared to the MSY value estimated by the ME model. Conservative management policies should be taken to reduce the aggregate amount of annual catch employing the total allowable catch system and effort reduction program.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.437-446
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• 1993

More realistic calculation models for evaluating man's annual intakes of radionuclides released from operating nuclear facilities were established. For the application of these models, the harvest years of food and feed crops consumed in the year of dose assessment and every year's average concentrations of a radionuclide in air and in water for the whole period of real operation had to be taken into account. KFOOD, an existing equilibrium food chain computer code for the Korean dose assessment, was modified according to the models. Sample runs of the modified code on the assumption of a constant release during 10 years' operation were made with three kinds of the input data files enabling the dose assessment in the improved method, the KFOOD method and another existing method, respectively, and the results were compared. Annual committed effective doses to Korean adult by intakes of Mn-54, Co-60, Sr-90, I-131 and Cs-137 calculated in the improved method were about 11, 2, 5, 60 and 3%, respectively, lower than the corresponding KFOOD dose. To the intakes of the radionuclides except Sr-90 evaluated in the improved method, foliar uptake contributed much more than root uptake did but, in the case of Sr-90, the result was opposite.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.18 no.12
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• pp.87-95
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• 2020

The Incheon airport is a gateway to and from the Republic of Korea and has a great influence on the image of the country. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the number of airport passengers in the long term in order to maintain the quality of service at the airport. In this study, we compared the predictive performance of various time series models to predict the air passenger demand at Incheon Airport. From 2002 to 2019, passenger data include trend and seasonality. We considered the naive method, decomposition method, exponential smoothing method, SARIMA, PROPHET. In order to compare the capacity and number of passengers at Incheon Airport in the future, the short-term, mid-term, and long-term was forecasted by time series models. For the short-term forecast, the exponential smoothing model, which weighted the recent data, was excellent, and the number of annual users in 2020 will be about 73.5 million. For the medium-term forecast, the SARIMA model considering stationarity was excellent, and the annual number of air passengers in 2022 will be around 79.8 million. The PROPHET model was excellent for long-term prediction and the annual number of passengers is expected to be about 99.0 million in 2024.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.10
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• pp.857-866
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• 2009

In this study, basic data is consisted annual maximum rainfall at 56 stations that has the rainfall records more than 30years in Korea. The 14 probability distributions which has been widely used in hydrologic frequency analysis are applied to the basic data. The method of moments, method of maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments method are used to estimate the parameters. And 4-tests (chi-square test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Cramer von Mises test, probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) test) are used to determine the goodness of fit of probability distributions. This study emphasizes the necessity for considering the variability of the estimate of T-year event in hydrologic frequency analysis and proposes a framework for evaluating probability distribution models. The variability (or estimation error) of T-year event is used as a criterion for model evaluation as well as three goodness of fit criteria (SLSC, MLL, and AIC) in the framework. The Jackknife method plays a important role in estimating the variability. For the annual maxima of rainfall at 56 stations, the Gumble distribution is regarded as the best one among probability distribution models with two or three parameters.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.104 no.2
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• pp.248-253
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• 2015

This study applied the portfolio approach as a means to provide decision-making information for the establishment of the optimal production plan for non-timber products. The target items of non-timber forest product were Chestnut, Jujube, Walnut and Astringent Persimmon. The data used in this study were the annual report of forestry production cost survey which contains the annual production, annual gross income, and annual product cost from 2008 to 2013. These data were used to calculate the expected return of non-timber forest product. The objective function in the portfolio models was to minimize the expected return volatility, called risk and the constrain was to achieve the minimum expected return rate. Results indicated that the production ratio of the nuts and fruits in 2013 was 7% for Chestnut, 20% for Jujube, 5% for Walnut and 68% for Astringent Persimmon. Furthermore, portfolio presented that the production ratio was 10% for Chestnut, 9% for Jujube, 3% for Walnut and 78% for Astringent Persimmon in the near future. The cause was analyzed due to maintain stable production and income of Astringent Persimmon and Chestnut. Meanwhile, the revenue of Walnuts and Jujube was in great variation with relatively higher revenues.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.3-11
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• 2016

Sixty four percent of Korean territory consists of forest which is fragile for forest fire. However, it is difficult to detect the disaster-induced damages due to topographic complexity in mountainous areas and harsh weather conditions. For this reason, satellite imaging systems have been widely utilized to detect the damage caused by forest fire. In particular, ground vegetation condition can be estimated from multi-spectral satellite images and change detection technique has been used to detect forest fire damages. However, since Korea has clear four seasons, simple change detection technique has limitation. In this regard, this study applied the NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index) annual cycle modeling technique on time-series of Landsat images from 1991 to 2007 to analyze influence of forest fire of Yangyang-gun, Gangwon-do in 2005 on vegetation condition. The encouraging result was obtained when comparing the areas where forest fire occurs with non-damaged areas. The mean value of NDVI was decreased by 0.07 before and after the forest fire. On the other hand, annual variability of NDVI had been increasing and peak value of NDVI was stationary after the forest fire. It is interpreted that understory vegetation was seriously damaged from the forest fire occurred in 2005.

• The Korean Journal of Ecology
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.191-202
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• 1990

For the maximun yield of the forest trees in the forest management, the growth of annual ring area of the major forest trees was analysed in the four areas in South Korea. The time to the maximum productivity and the optimum cutting time for the maximum yield were estimated. The growth curve of annual ring area showed sigmoid like that of other organisms. Only the growth coefficient among the areas between Fraxinus rhynchophylla and Pinus koraiensis represented significance (5% level). The growth coefficient among forest trees between Pinus densiflora and Abies holophylla, Larix kaempferi and Carpinus laxiflora, Larix kaempferi and Quercus mongolica, Larix kaempferi and Quercus serrata, Larix kaempferi and Pinus koraiensis, and Larix kaempferi and Abies holophylla represented significance (5% level). Among eight forest trees, the time to maximum productivity (tm) of Larix kaempferi was the earliest (21.4 year), and Abies holophylla was the latest (91.9 year). The optimum cutting time for the maximum yield (tc) of L. kaempferi was the earliest (29.4 year) and that of A, holophylla was the latest (122.2 year) of all communities. The optimum cutting time for the maximum yield was 1.33 times as late as the time to the maximum productivity. If the growth of annual ring area as the forest tree for wood is regarded, L. kaempferi and P. densiflora are thought to be more economical than A. holophylla and P. koraiensis.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.123-129
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• 2009

Objectives : This study aimed to examine the association between public social expenditure(PSE) and suicides in the 27 countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD) from 1980 to 2003. Methods : The age-standardized suicide rates and their annual change(%) were obtained from the OECD Health Data 2007. As a measure of social protection, the PSE(% GDP) was used. The covariates included the annual divorce rate(/100,000 population), fertility rate(number of children/woman aged 15 to 49 years), GDP per capita(US$ PPP), male unemployment rate(%), life expectancy(years) and alcohol consumption(liter/capita) for each country, which were all obtained from the OECD Health Data 2007 and the OECD Social Indicators 2006. Using hierarchical linear models that included these covariates, the effects of PSE on suicides(Model 1) and the annual percent change (Model 2) were examined(Model 3). Also, sub-sample analyses were done for six countries that experienced political/economic transition. Results : We could not find significant effects of PSE on suicides(Model 1), but we observed significantly negative effects on the annual percent change for men and women(Model 2). Such findings were replicated in the sub-sample analysis, and moreover, the effect size was much larger(Model 3). Conclusions : Our finding suggests that social welfare protection can be a pivotal factor for suicide epidemiology, and especially in countries experiencing a social crisis or transition.