• Title/Summary/Keyword: and wind power forecasting

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Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of PV Power Forecasting for Evaluation and Selection of Suitable PV Sites (태양광 발전소 건설부지 평가 및 선정을 위한 선형회귀분석 기반 태양광 발전량 추정 모델)

  • Heo, Jae;Park, Bumsoo;Kim, Byungil;Han, SangUk
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.126-131
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    • 2019
  • The estimation of available solar energy at particular locations is critical to find and assess suitable locations of PV sites. The amount of PV power generation is however affected by various geographical factors (e.g., weather), which may make it difficult to identify the complex relationship between affecting factors and power outputs and to apply findings from one study to another in different locations. This study thus undertakes a regression analysis using data collected from 172 PV plants spatially distributed in Korea to identify critical weather conditions and estimate the potential power generation of PV systems. Such data also include solar radiation, precipitation, fine dust, humidity, temperature, cloud amount, sunshine duration, and wind speed. The estimated PV power generation is then compared to the actual PV power generation to evaluate prediction performance. As a result, the proposed model achieves a MAPE of 11.696(%) and an R-squred of 0.979. It is also found that the variables, excluding humidity, are all statistically significant in predicting the efficiency of PV power generation. According, this study may facilitate the understanding of what weather conditions can be considered and the estimation of PV power generation for evaluating and determining suitable locations of PV facilities.

Numerical Simulation of Extreme Air Pollution by Fine Particulate Matter in China in Winter 2013

  • Shimadera, Hikari;Hayami, Hiroshi;Ohara, Toshimasa;Morino, Yu;Takami, Akinori;Irei, Satoshi
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2014
  • In winter 2013, extreme air pollution by fine particulate matter ($PM_{2.5}$) in China attracted much public attention. In order to simulate the $PM_{2.5}$ pollution, the Community Multiscale Air Quality model driven by the Weather Research and Forecasting model was applied to East Asia in a period from 1 January 2013 to 5 February 2013. The model generally reproduced $PM_{2.5}$ concentration in China with emission data in the year 2006. Therefore, the extreme $PM_{2.5}$ pollution seems to be mainly attributed to meteorological (weak wind and stable) conditions rather than emission increases in the past several years. The model well simulated temporal and spatial variations in $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations in Japan as well as China, indicating that the model well captured characteristics of the $PM_{2.5}$ pollutions in both areas on the windward and leeward sides in East Asia in the study period. In addition, contribution rates of four anthropogenic emission sectors (power generation, industrial, residential and transportation) in China to $PM_{2.5}$ concentration were estimated by conducting zero-out emission sensitivity runs. Among the four sectors, the residential sector had the highest contribution to $PM_{2.5}$ concentration. Therefore, the extreme $PM_{2.5}$ pollution may be also attributed to large emissions from combustion for heating in cold regions in China.

Multi-Objective Onboard Measurement from the Viewpoint of Safety and Efficiency (안전성 및 효율성 관점에서의 다목적 실선 실험)

  • Sang-Won Lee;Kenji Sasa;Ik-Soon Cho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2023.11a
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    • pp.116-118
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    • 2023
  • In recent years, the need for economical and sustainable ship routing has emerged due to the enforced regulations on environmental issues. Despite the development of weather forecasting technology, maritime accidents by rough waves have continued to occur due to incorrect weather forecasts. In this study, onboard measurements are conducted to observe the acutal situation on merchant ships in operation encountering rough waves. The types of measured data include information related to navigation (Ship's position, speed, bearing, rudder angle) and engine (engine revolutions, power, shaft thrust, fuel consumption), weather conditions (wind, waves), and ship motions (roll, pitch, and yaw). These ship experiments was conducted to 28,000 DWT bulk carrier, 63,000 DWT bulk carrier, 20,000 TEU container ship, and 12,000 TEU container ship. The actual ship experiment of each ship is intended to acquire various types of data and utilize them for multi-objective studies related to ship operation. Additionally, in order to confirm the sea conditions, the directional wave spectrum was reproduced using a wave simulation model. Through data collection from ship experiments and wave simulations, various studies could be proceeding such as the measurement for accurate wave information by marine radar and analysis for cargo collapse accidents. In addition, it is expected to be utilized in various themes from the perspective of safety and efficiency in ship operation.

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Topic Model Analysis of Research Trend on Renewable Energy (신재생에너지 동향 파악을 위한 토픽 모형 분석)

  • Shin, KyuSik;Choi, HoeRyeon;Lee, HongChul
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.9
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    • pp.6411-6418
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    • 2015
  • To respond the climate change and environmental pollution, the studies on renewable energy policies are increasing. The renewable energy is a new growth engine technology represented by the green industry and green technology. At present, the investments for the renewable energy supply and technology development projects of three main strategy sectors such as sunlight, wind power and hydrogen fuel cell are implemented in our country, while they are still in the early stage, accordingly reducing those uncertainty for the research direction and investment fields is the most urgent issue among others. Thus, this study applied text mining method and multinominal topic model among the big data analysis methods on our country's newspaper articles concerning the renewable energy over the last 10 years, and then analyzed the core issues and global research trend, forecasting the renewable energy fields with the growth potential. It is predicted that these results of the study based on information and communication technology will be actively applied on the renewable energy fields.

The Analysis of Terrain Height Variance Spectra over the Korean Mountain Region and Its Impact on Mesoscale Model Simulation (한반도 산악 지역의 지형분산 스펙트럼과 중규모 수치모의에서의 효과 분석)

  • An, Gwang-Deuk;Lee, Yong-Hui;Jang, Dong-Eon;Jo, Cheon-Ho
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.359-370
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    • 2006
  • Terrain height variance spectra for the Korean mountain region are calculated in order to determine an adequate grid size required to resolve terrain forcing on mesoscale model simulation. One-dimensional spectral analysis is applied to specifically the central-eastern part of the Korean mountain region, where topographical-scale forcing has an important effect on mesoscale atmospheric flow. It is found that the terrain height variance spectra in this mountain region has a wavelength dependence with the power law exponents of 1.5 at the wavelength near 30 km, but this dependence is steeply changed to 2.5 at the wavelength less than 30 km. For the adequate horizontal grid size selection on mesoscale simulation two-dimensional terrain height spectral analysis is also performed. There is no directionality within 50% of spectral energy region, so one-dimensional spectral analysis can be reasonably applied to the Korea Peninsula. According to the spectral analysis of terrain height variance, the finer grid size which is higher than 6 km is required to resolve a 90% of terrain variance in this region. Numerical simulation using WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) was performed to evaluate the effect of different terrain resolution in accordance with the result of spectral analysis. The simulated results were quantitatively compared to observations and there was a significant improvement in the wind prediction across the mountain region as the grid space decreased from 18 km to 2 km. The results will provide useful guidance of grid size selection on mesoscale topographical simulation over the Korean mountain region.

A Study on the Feedforward Control Algorithm for Dynamic Positioning System Using Ship Motion Prediction (선체운동 예측을 이용한 Dynamic Positioning System의 피드포워드 제어 알고리즘에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Soon-Seok;Kim, Sang-Hyun;Kim, Hee-Su;Jeon, Ma-Ro
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.129-137
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    • 2016
  • In the present study we verified performance of feed-forward control algorithm using short term prediction of ship motion information by taking advantage of developed numerical simulation model of FPSO motion. Up until now, various studies have been conducted about thrust control and allocation for dynamic positioning systems maintaining positions of ships or marine structures in diverse sea environmental conditions. In the existing studies, however, the dynamic positioning systems consist of only feedback control gains using a motion of vessel derived from environmental loads such as current, wind and wave. This study addresses dynamic positioning systems which have feedforward control gain derived from forecasted value of a motion of vessel occurred by current, wind and wave force. In this study, the future motion of vessel is forecasted via Brown's Exponential Smoothing after calculating the vessel motion via a selected mathematical model, and the control force for maintaining the position and heading angle of a vessel is decided by the feedback controller and the feedforward controller using PID theory and forecasted vessel motion respectively. For the allocation of thrusts, the Lagrange Multiplier Method is exploited. By constructing a simulation code for a dynamic positioning system of FPSO, the performance of feedforward control system which has feedback controller and feedforward controller was assessed. According to the result of this study, in case of using feedforward control system, it shows smaller maximum thrust power than using conventional feedback control system.

The Economic Effects of the New and Renewable Energies Sector (신재생에너지 부문의 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Lim, Seul-Ye;Park, So-Yeon;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2014
  • The Korean government made the 2nd Energy Basic Plan to achieve 11% of new and renewable energies distribution rate until 2035 as a response to cope with international discussion about greenhouse gas emission reduction. Renewable energies include solar thermal, photovoltaic, bioenergy, wind power, small hydropower, geothermal energy, ocean energy, and waste energy. New energies contain fuel cells, coal gasification and liquefaction, and hydrogen. As public and private investment to enhance the distribution of new and renewable energies, it is necessary to clarify the economic effects of the new and renewable energies sector. To the end, this study attempts to apply an input-output analysis and analyze the economic effects of new and renewable energies sector using 2012 input-output table. Three topics are dealt with. First, production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect are quantified based on demand-driven model. Second, supply shortage effects are analyzed employing supply-driven model. Lastly, price pervasive effects are investigated applying Leontief price model. The results of this analysis are as follows. First, one won of production or investment in new and renewable energies sector induces 2.1776 won of production and 0.7080 won of value-added. Moreover, the employment-inducing effect of one billion won of production or investment in new and renewable energies sector is estimated to be 9.0337 persons. Second, production shortage cost from one won of supply failure in new and renewable energies sector is calculated to be 1.6314 won, which is not small. Third, the impact of the 10% increase in new and renewable energies rate on the general price level is computed to be 0.0123%, which is small. This information can be utilized in forecasting the economic effects of new and renewable energies sector.