• 제목/요약/키워드: almost causal

검색결과 35건 처리시간 0.025초

IT서비스 아웃소싱 프로젝트 위험과 실물옵션 유형간 적합성에 관한 연구 (The Effect of IT Service Outsourcing Project Risks on the Intention of Purchasing Real Options based on Transaction Cost Theory)

  • 남승현;안중호;양희동
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.41-66
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    • 2013
  • IS outsourcing has an important meaning to the Korean SME's (Small and Medium Enterprises) which want to use the IS Services. The objective of this research is to manage IT risks occurred during IS outsourcing project process. This study tries to identify these risks using real option methodology. In order to perform this objective, this study set up the research model which is composed of two main concepts. The first one is the risk factors occurred during IS outsourcing project process: User's Risks, Supplier's Risks and Transaction's Risks. All of these risks are based on Transaction Cost Theory. The second one is the intention to get (or buy) Real Options to manage the risks. In the research model, two types of real option are included: option to abandon (put option) and option to defer (call option). This study uses questionnaires and statistics methodology (PLS) to analyze the hypotheses proposed in the research model. Compared with prior studies, this study is different in two ways. First, this study restricts the range of IT risks. Prior researches of IT Risk management in MIS area cover various range of IT risks, but this study focuses on the Korean SME's IT outsourcing risks on the basis of Transaction Cost Theory. This study tests the relationship between the risks and real option types. Second, this study tries to test the moderating effect of user's risks and supplier's risks on the relationship between transaction's risks and real option types. In IT outsourcing research area, almost studies focus on the direct relationships between IT risks and outsourcing success. But in reality, the co-relationship among IT risks may occur. There are some findings according to the research analysis. First, risks related with user's risks have strong causal relationships with the intention to get option to abandon (put) and option to defer. But risks related with supplier's risks have causal relationships only with option to abandon (put). Second, user's risks and supplier's risks have no moderating effect on the relationship between transaction's risks and real option types. According to the research results, this research have some important and interesting implications on the IS outsourcing business area. First, this study identifies the effective types of real option to minimize the risks occurred during the IT outsourcing projects. So IS outsourcing service users can manage (or minimize) effectively the risks, which occurred during outsourcing projects, using real options. Second, real option gives benefits to suppliers and users at the same time (i.e., win-win strategies between IS outsourcing service providers and users). Vendors (:IS outsourcing service providers) can offer users the real options which can minimize the occurrence of risks in time. "IN TIME" means that before the IS outsourcing project starts, vendors can offer users the opportunity to buy real options in appropriate prices to manage the possibility of the risks of IS outsourcing project. And users also have chance to minimize the IT outsourcing risks occurred during the project process using real options.

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조직특성 및 개인특성이 판매원 성과에 미치는 영향 (Effects of Organizational and Personal Characteristics on Salesforces' Performance)

  • 손준상
    • 마케팅과학연구
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    • 제8권
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    • pp.111-138
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    • 2001
  • 본 연구에서는 판매원성과의 결정요인을 분석하기 위해 자동차 판매원들을 대상으로 조사 를 실시하였다. 분석의 결과, 변혁적 리더십과 거래적 리더십, 시장지향성, 조직분위기 등의 조직특성변수의 일부가 판매원 성과에 유의적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났고, 개인특성 변수로는 성취욕구, 내적 동기부여, 학습목표지향, 자기효능감이 양(+)의 유의적인 영향을 미 치고 외적 동기부여는 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이에 대한 관리적 시사점을 제시하고 연구의 한계와 미래 연구방향을 제시하였다.

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한국에서의 기후변화와 오징어 어획의 확장 (Climate Change and Expansion of Squid Catches in Korea)

  • Kim, Jong-Gyu;Kim, Joong-Soon
    • 한국환경보건학회지
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    • 제43권6호
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    • pp.516-524
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: The annual catch of the common squid Todarodes pacificus in Korean coastal waters has gradually increased since the late 1980s. We investigated the long-term effects of climate variability on the variation in catches of the squid in the offshore fisheries of Korea. Methods: Moving average method, correlation analysis, and regression analysis were used to determine the relationship between the environmental factors and fluctuation in the catch of the squid during the past 30 years (1981- 2010). A ten-year moving average was calculated and used for each variable. Results: Squid catches in Korean coastal waters increased over time, and there were significant variations within every ten years (p < 0.001). Air temperature, atmospheric pressure, and wind grade among the meteorological factors, alongside sea surface temperature (SST) and concentrations of phosphate phosphorous, and nitrite/nitrate nitrogen in the sea water increased and were positively related with the catch size of squid (p < 0.001). However, salinity decreased and was negatively related with the catch size (p < 0.001). The increase in air temperature and SST was almost parallel, although there was a time lag between the two factors. Conclusion: These results suggest that there is a causal association between climate change and squid populations. Climate change, especially ocean warming, appears to have been largely favorable for squid range expansion into Korean seas. Although the expansion may be helpful for the human food supply, the safety of the squid caught should be monitored since the concentrations of phosphorous and nitrogen in the sea water increased, which indicates that Korean seas have grown gradually more polluted.

단독주택가격 추정을 위한 기계학습 모형의 응용 (Application of machine learning models for estimating house price)

  • 이창로;박기호
    • 대한지리학회지
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    • 제51권2호
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    • pp.219-233
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    • 2016
  • 수리 또는 계량적 모형을 사용하는 사회과학연구에서 분석의 초점은 종속변수와 설명변수의 관계를 밝히는 것, 즉 설명 중심의 모형(explanatory modeling)이 지금까지 주류를 이루었다. 반면 예측(prediction) 능력 제고에 초점을 맞춘 분석은 드물었다. 본 연구에서는 이론 및 가설을 검증하거나 변수 간의 관계를 밝히는 설명 중심의 모형이 아니라 신규 관찰치에 대한 예측 오차를 줄이는, 예측 중심의 비모수 모형(non-parametric model)을 검토하였다. 서울시 강남구를 사례지역으로 선정한 후, 2011년부터 2014년까지 신고된 단독주택 실거래가를 기초자료로 하여 주택가격을 추정하였다. 적용한 비모수 모형은 기계학습 분야에서 제시된 일반가산모형(generalized additive model), 랜덤 포리스트, MARS(multivariate adaptive regression splines), SVM(support vector machines) 등이며 비교적 최근에 개발된 MARS나 SVM의 예측력이 뛰어남을 확인할 수 있었다. 마지막으로 이러한 비모수 모형에 공간적 자기상관성을 추가적으로 반영한 결과, 모형의 가격 예측력이 보다 개선되었음을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구를 계기로 그간 모수 모형에 집중되었던 부동산 가격추정 방법론이 비모수 모형으로 확대 및 다양화되기를 기대한다.

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뇌졸중 환자의 기대여명과 삶의 질, QALY에 대한 연구 (A study about the Life Expectancy, Quality of Life and QALYs of Stroke patients)

  • 김남권;이동효;조가원;서은성
    • 대한예방한의학회지
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.15-26
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    • 2012
  • Objective : Only a few studies have investigated the life expectance and health related quality of life (HRQOL) about stroke patients. The purpose of this study is to analyze the life expectancy, preference based quality of life(QOL) and quality adjusted life years(QALYs) of stroke patients. Methods : We used data of 10,533 adults from 4th Korean national health and nutritional examination survey 2009 for evaluating HRQOL of stroke patients. We also analyzed the life expectancy for stroke patients using life table from national public health data. Finally we calculated the QALYs with and without stroke conditions and assumed the difference of QALYs. Results : The mean age of stroke patients was assumed to be 65. Lower income and less educated groups were prone to be exposed to the stroke conditions. Common comorbidities of stroke patients were ischemic heart attack, hypertension, diabetes and hyperlipidemia. The proportions of participants who reported problems in each of the five EQ-5D dimensions increased significantly at chronic stroke group. Participants with chronic stroke conditions had an almost 6-fold higher risk of impaired health utility(the lowest quartile of EQ-5D utility score) compared with non stroke participants, after adjustment of age, gender, income, education, comorbidity variables. The differences of life expectancy and QALYs between non-stroke and stroke group from the age of 65 till death were assumed to be 0.767 year and 3.103 QALYs. Conclusions : Although the authors analyzed the affecting factors of QOL and assumed the differences of life expectance and QALYs about stroke patients using domestic national data and statistic references, well designed cohort studies should be needed to prove the causal effects of affecting factors and to assume more correct QALY differences.

파월국군장병의 고엽제 위해에 관한 예비적 역학조사 (A Preliminary Epidemiologic Study on Korean Veterans Exposed to Herbicides in Vietnam War)

  • 김정순;임현술;이홍복;이원영;박영주;김성수
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.711-734
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    • 1994
  • Among chemical agents in herbicides, dioxin (2, 3, 7, 8-tetrachloro dibenzo-$\rho$-dioxin : TCDD), a chemical contaminant in herbicides sprayed during the Vietnam War has been known to be the major agent causing toxic effects. Approximately 320,000 korean soldiers participated the Vietnam War from 1964 to 1974. Although the potential hazards of the herbicides among Korean veterans exposed were implicated, the problem had not been a public issue until 1991 when Korean veterans were informed U.S. companies, the herbicides manufacturer payed fund, from which a trust fund for New Zealand and Australian Class members were established in 1985. After a series of appeals and demonstration by the Korean Veterans demanding medical care and compensation for their serious health damages, a bill of medical care and compensation for herbicides victims was promulgated in March 1993 and become effective from May 1993, This study was carried out with two major objectives : the first to understand the health problems caused from the herbicides by reviewing literatures published, and the second to examine the nature and extent of health impacts among Korean veterans exposed and to develop valid study methods for the major study by interviewing and reviewing records on a part of veterans (638 persons) registered and completed medical examination in Seoul Veterans Administration Hospital from June to October 1993. The results obtained are as followings: 1. The literature review of 107 papers revealed that 1) Dioxin is teratogenic, carcinogenic and affects almost all organs including nervous, endocrine, and reproductive systems in animal experiments. 2) The diseases showing evidence of causal association were Hodgkin's disease, non-Hodgkin's disease, lung cancer, lymphoma, soft tissue sarcoma, chloroacne and polyneuropathy when judged on the basis of consistency in study results and biological plausibility. 2. Interview and medical record review study on 638 veterans, though limited validity owing to lack of control group, crude estimates of dioxin exposure levels (no biomarkers measurable), and uncertainty of diagnosis, showed that: 1) Most of the study subject's were in their 40's of age and had been dispatched to Vietnam during the period from $1965{\sim}1970$ around one year. 2) Most frequently complained symptoms in medical examination were motor weakness (32%), sensory abnormalities in extremities (23%), skin diseases (22%), and pain in extremities (20%) whereas in Interview they were more frequent in order of skin problem (44%), motor weakness (38%), sensory abnormalities and pain in extremities(17% and 19% each). Kappa indices on the same category of complaints between two sources of information were variable and relatively low. 3) On medical examination, only a part of the 638 subjects had initial impression (442 pts) and final diagnosis (218 pts) suggesting decision making on diagnosis appeared to be difficult even with all available modern medical technologies: in initial impression disorders from peripheral and central neuropathy were predominant whereas in final diagnosis various types of skin disorder were most frequent 4) When dose-response relationship between several conditions (from questionnaire) and arbitrary exposure scores were examined by CMH linear trend test, spontaneous abortion, sexual problems and health problem of offsprings showed statistically significant linear trends. However, pregnancy, accident and suicidal attempts did not show any relationship in this study capacity. 5) Among complaints, psychosis and neurosis (anxiety, phobia) in interview study, and memory disorder and psychosis in medical record study revealed linear trend. 6) Skin disorder was the only condition showing linear trend in initial impression and none in final diagnosis on medical examination. Even though objective to select out dioxin-related disease or group of diseases from this study was not achieved the research experiences provided firm basis for developing various methodological approaches. 3. From this preliminary study we concluded that a larger scale major epidemiologic study on health impacts of herbicides among Korean veterans exposed is not only Indispensible but also well designed study with more valid exposure information and diagnosis may be able to establish causal relationship between certain groups of diseases and exposure to the herbicides among Korean veterans.

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인공신경망을 이용한 경제 위기 예측 (The Prediction of Currency Crises through Artificial Neural Network)

  • 이형용;박정민
    • 지능정보연구
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.19-43
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    • 2016
  • 이 연구에서 Asia 금융 위기의 원인을 고찰하여 보고, European Monetary Systems의 금융 위기와 비교하여 본다. Asian 신흥 국가들은 1997년도에 금융 위기를 경험하였고, European Monetary Systems의 국가들도 1992년도에 동일한 경험을 하였다. 또한, 중남미의 신흥 경제국가인 Mexico 역시 1994년에 금융위기를 겪었다. 이 연구의 목적은 이들 금융위기의 내면을 고찰하고 그 결과로부터 일반화된 법칙을 추출하는 것이다. 이 연구에서는 금융위기를 경험한 한국과 영국과 멕시코를 각각 세가지 다른 모형으로 연구하고 비교하였다. 이 접근 방법은 체계적인 조사를 통하여 세 국가의 차이점을 보여주고 또한 공통적인 내재 요인을 관찰한다. 이전의 많은 연구 방법들은 대부분 선형 회귀식을 통한 causal model에 초점을 맞추고 있지만, 이러한 선형 회귀 모형의 약점을 보완하여서 현실에 산재하며 존재하는 비 선형의 문제를 해결하기 위하여 또 다른 방법을 제안하여 본다. 이 연구에서 사용한 구조 방정식(Structural Equation Model) 모형은 현실로부터 원인을 추출하고 분석하는 연구에 적합하며, 신경망(Artificial Neural Network) 모형은 선형모형의 단점을 보완하여서 비 선형 요인을 설명해 준다. 구조방정식 모형에 적용하기 위하여서 LISREL(LInear Structural RELationship)을 사용하였다. LISREL은 확인적 요인분석과 계량경제학에서 개발된 연립방정식모델에 토대를 둔 다중회귀분석 및 경로분석 등이 결합된 성격을 갖는 방법론으로 다양한 연구에 적용된다. 또한 인공지능(Artificial Intelligence) 기법 중의 하나인 신경망 모형은 선형회귀 분석과 다른 형태의 결과를 도출한다. 세가지 방법론의 우수성을 비교하기 위하여 Hit ratio를 각 국가/ 각 방법론 별로 구분하여서 비교한 결과 다른 방법론 보다 신경망이 더 좋은 성과를 나타내고 있는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 세가지 방법론에 각각 일반적인 환율 예측에 사용되는 변수를 사용하였다. 소비자 물가지수(Consumer Price Index), 국내총생산(Gross Domestic Product), 이자율(Interest rate), 주가지수(Stock Index), 경상수지(Current Account), 외환보유고(Foreign Reserves)의 6가지 변수를 이용하여서 환율을 예측하여서 급격한 환율 변화로 초래되는 경제위기를 예측하려고 하였다. 각각의 국가의 데이터는 대한민국은 1991년부터 1999년까지, 영국은 1986년부터 1995년까지, 멕시코는 1988년부터 1998년까지의 기간을 정하여서 시계열자료를 분기별로 사용하였다. 각각의 데이터는 Data Stream과 한국은행(Bank of Korea)의 데이터를 이용하여서 분석하였다. 선형회귀방정식을 이용한 분석과 구조방정식인 LISREL을 이용한 분석은 각각 Hit ratio가 국가별로 순위가 변동되기도 하였으나, 인공지능 방법론인 인공신경망의 경우는 모든 국가에서 가장 좋은 예측 결과를 나타내고 있었다. 이 논문은 환율의 변동에 대한 다양한 예측 모형을 비교하고 평가하여서 연구에서 제시하는 개념을 검토하였다는 점에서 의의를 갖는다.

문화간 판매접점에서 판매원 문화지능의 조절효과 (The Moderating Effects of Salesperson's Cultural Intelligence in Intercultural Sales Encounters)

  • 공란란;김형길;김윤정
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제15권12호
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - Owing to economic development and rapid globalization, the number of people traveling abroad has increased dramatically in recent years. For instance, according to data from World Tourism Organization, approximately 1,724 million tourists traveled abroad in 2016. This phenomenon has resulted in a change for domestic markets, as they no longer serve only domestic customers but also serve foreign customers as well. Therefore, intercultural service encounters between services providers and customers from diverse cultural backgrounds are becoming more frequent. Especially in the field of retailing, salesperson's customer oriented selling behavior is particularly important for the successful interactions. However, it is hard to find some factors that can improve salesperson's customer oriented selling behavior in intercultural sales encounters. Research design, data, and methodology - A quantitative survey methodology was utilized to collect data on 312 salespeople at duty-free shops located on Jeju Island, Korea. As a tourism-based region, Jeju Island has attracted a large number of foreign tourists since being designated as an international free city in 2002. Owing to this phenomenon, intercultural sales encounters between salespersons and customers from different cultures have become commonplace. Compared to other salespeople, salespeople working in duty-free shops have more frequent intercultural interactions, as over 90% of their total customers are from foreign countries. Additionally, regular professional training programs for salespeople help cultivate cultural intelligence. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS 20. Results - This paper explores the role of empathy and cultural intelligence in intercultural sales encounters using a theoretical model incorporating the causal relationships between empathy(cognitive empathy and emotional empathy) and customer oriented selling behavior, as well as the moderating effects of cultural intelligence in these relationships. Conclusions - This study is almost the first to explore the influence of empathy and cultural intelligence in intercultural sales encounters. Thus, this study provides a meaningful contribution to the application of empathy and cultural intelligence in the retailing field and will draw the attention of personal distribution practicers and researchers to the importance of empathy and cultural intelligence. Additionally, this study has useful managerial implications for employee selection, training, and development in retailing firms engaged in intercultural sales encounters.

Family history of chronic renal failure is associated with malnutrition in Korean hemodialysis patients

  • Hwang, Ji-Yun;Cho, Ju-Hyun;Lee, Yoon-Jung;Jang, Sang-Pil;Kim, Wha-Young
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • 제3권3호
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    • pp.247-252
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    • 2009
  • The present study was to investigate the nutritional status and factors related to malnutrition in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients requiring hemodialysis (HD) in South Korea. Subjects were ESRD outpatients from general hospitals or HD centers in Seoul referred to the dialysis clinic for maintenance HD care. A total of 110 patients (46 men and 64 women; mean ages $58.6{\pm}1.0y$) were eligible for this study. The family history of chronic renal failure (CRF) was considered positive if a patient reported having either a first-degree or second-degree relative with CRF. Malnutrition was defined as a triceps skinfold thickness or mid-ann muscle circumference below the fifth percentile for age and sex and forty-seven of the 110 patients were malnourished. Almost all (94%) patients had anemia (hemoglobin: <13 g/dL for men and <12 g/dL for women). Energy intake was below the recommended intake levels of energy [30-35 kcal/kg ideal body weight (IBW)] and protein (1.2 g/kg IBW) in 60% of patients. The duration of HD was longer in malnourished HD patients (P=0.0095). Malnutrition was more prevalent in women (P=0.0014), those who never smoked (P=0.0007), nondiabetic patients (P=0.0113), and patients with bone diseases (P=0.0427), adequate HD (spKt/$V{\geq}1.2$) (P=0.0178), and those with a family history of CRF (P=0.0255). Multiple logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between malnutrition and potential risk factors. After adjusting for age, sex, and other putative risk factors for malnutrition, the OR for malnutrition was greater in HD patients with a family history of CRF (OR, 3.290; 95% CI, $1.003{sim}10.793$). Active nutrition monitoring is needed to improve the nutritional status of HD patients. A family history of CRF may be an independent risk factor for malnutrition in Korean HD patients. A follow-up study is needed to investigate whether there is a causal relationship between a family history of CRF and malnutrition in Korean ESRD patients.

'블랙컨슈머 행동'과 종사원의 조직일탈행동 : 격려의 조절효과 ('Black Consumer Behavior' and Organizational Misbehavior : The Moderating Effects of encourage)

  • 손헌일;박상봉
    • 경영과정보연구
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    • 제36권4호
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    • pp.103-116
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구의 목적은 서비스 산업에서 고객의 '블랙컨슈머 행동'을 지각한 종사원이 조직에 미치는 부정적 행동인 '조직일탈행동'에 미치는 영향과 조직내 '격려'의 조절효과를 분석을 통해 관리적 시사점의 제공이다. 특히, Adler(1991)는 격려가 개인의 인지적 도식 틀에 긍정적 기대를 주입하는 것으로 인지, 정서, 행동에 긍정적 영향을 미친다고 주장(Dinkmeyer and Losoncy, 1996)하였다. 이러한 Adler(1991) 주장을 근거로 고객의 블랙컨슈머 행동을 지각한 노동자의 반응행동에 대한 격려의 조절효과를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 선행연구를 바탕으로 블랙컨슈머 행동, 조직일탈행동, 격려에 대한 연구모형을 설계하였다. 2015년 11월 15일부터 12월 3일까지 부산지역 호텔, 카지노, 면세점 그리고 외식 서비스 종사원 323명을 대상으로 설문지를 배포하였다. 그 중 279부를 회수(회수율은 86.4%)하였고, 회수된 설문지 중에서 무성의한 응답 또는 무응답이 많은 부실응답 설문지를 제외하여 262부를 최종 분석에 사용하였다. 실증분석 결과 블랙컨슈머 행동은 조직일탈행동에 유의한 영향을 미치고, 격려는 블랙컨슈머 행동 중 과도성과 조직일탈행동에 대한 유의적인 조절효과가 있다는 결과를 확인할 수 있었다. 이러한 실증분석 결과를 바탕으로 블랙컨슈머에 노출된 서비스 노동자에 대한 관리적 시사점을 제공하였다.

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