• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.97-108
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• 2015

This study proposes a mathematical model to estimate the economic value of weather forecast service, among which the precipitation forecast service is focused. The value is calculated in terms of users' satisfaction or dissatisfaction resulted from the users' decisions made by using the precipitation probabilistic forecasts and thresholds. The satisfaction values can be quantified by the traditional value score model, which shows the scaled utility values relative to the perfect forecast information. This paper extends the value score concept to a collective value score model which is defined as a weighted sum of users' satisfaction based on threshold distribution in a group of the users. The proposed collective value score model is applied to the picnic scenario by using four hypothetical sets of probabilistic forecasts, i.e., under-confident, over-confident, under-forecast and over-forecast. The application results show that under-confident type of forecasts outperforms the others as a measure of the maximum collective value regardless of users' dissatisfaction patterns caused by two types of forecast errors, e.g., miss and false alarm.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.302-311
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• 2017

Nowadays, with the burgeoning development of economy, $CO_2$ emissions increase rapidly in China. It has become a common concern to seek effective methods to forecast $CO_2$ emissions and put forward the targeted reduction measures. This paper proposes a novel hybrid model combined principal component analysis (PCA) with regularized extreme learning machine (RELM) to make $CO_2$ emissions prediction based on the data from 1978 to 2014 in China. First eleven variables are selected on the basis of Pearson coefficient test. Partial autocorrelation function (PACF) is utilized to determine the lag phases of historical $CO_2$ emissions so as to improve the rationality of input selection. Then PCA is employed to reduce the dimensionality of the influential factors. Finally RELM is applied to forecast $CO_2$ emissions. According to the modeling results, the proposed model outperforms a single RELM model, extreme learning machine (ELM), back propagation neural network (BPNN), GM(1,1) and Logistic model in terms of errors. Moreover, it can be clearly seen that ELM-based approaches save more computing time than BPNN. Therefore the developed model is a promising technique in terms of forecasting accuracy and computing efficiency for $CO_2$ emission prediction.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.41-54
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• 1995

Recently our government intended to change the present fisheries management system into the allocated catch quota system, which is to increase the income of fishermen and to recover the depleted resources up to a desirable level. This paper is to find out the difficulties of introducing the allocated catch quota system into our fisheries mangement system and to reduce the possible errors for the enforcement of this system. The allocated catch quota system can be devided by two kinds, the one is to allocate among industries or fisheries with total allowable catch(TAC) and the other is to allocate among fishermen or individual vessels with individual fish quota(ITQ). The latter is a much advanced control system compared with the former and is what this study treats. This paper reviewed the case of Newzealand and Canada where the ITQ system is introduced earlier and classified the problems by two parts for successful introduction into Korea as follows : (1) allocation method problems, (2) enforcement problems. For the first part the problems to be considered are 1) a scientific oath qouta calculation system is necessary, 2) the quota must be opened, 3) by-catch problems. 4) interactions with adjoining countries. For the second part the problems to be considered are 1) monitoring system, 2) quota transferability, 3) quota flexibility, 4) the enforcement of the system must be connected with the reduction of fishing power, 5) a mass communication and decision making system between government and fishermen is essential.

• Korean Journal of Adult Nursing
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.253-265
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• 2014

Purpose: This study was done to develop and evaluate a smartphone application for the medication confirmation of high-alert medications. Methods: A nonequivalent control group non-synchronized design was used for this study. Participants in the treatment group used the application for four weeks. Data were analyzed using descriptive analysis, ${\chi}^2$-test, and t-test for the homogeneity of participants, and a paired t-test for effectiveness in each group with the SPSS 18.0. Results: Stability of medication administration was estimated by knowledge and certainty, ranged from a score of one to three. A correct answer with high certainty was coded as high stability, low certainty regardless of correct answer was coded as a moderate stability, and incorrect answers with high certainty were rated as low stability. There were no differences in 'knowledge of high alert medication', 'Certainty of knowledge', 'stability of medication administration', 'confidence of single checking medication', and 'medication safety activities' between the treatment group and the comparison group. The treatment group reported a greater difference between pretest and post-test in 'certainty of medication knowledge' (t=3.51, p=.001) than the comparison group. Conclusion: Smartphone application for medication confirmation of high-alert medications will provide an important platform for reducing medication errors risk.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.14 no.12
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• pp.61-69
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• 2016

Purpose - This study investigates the determinants that affect the number of IT Incident tickets of an IT Service Provider ("ITSP") to logistics industry in order to improve its management process by reducing the incident tickets. Research design, data, and Methodology - This study uses weekly data of IT incident tickets from September 2012 to June 2015. Correlation and regression analyses are conducted. Six identified determinants i.e., IT Change, User Errors, Shipment Volume, Network, Hardware and Software Issues are used as the explanatory variables. Results - Our findings show as following. First, our analysis indicates that IT Change is not a significant determinant as opposed to what commonly believed by many as the most important factor. Second, Software issue is the highest contributor to the Major IT incident tickets, followed by User Error, Network and Hardware issues. Third, it seems there is lead-lag relationship between IT Change and Major IT Incidents tickets as indicated by earlier studies. Fourth, the relationship between IT Change and Major IT tickets is also affected by shipment volume. Conclusions - As policy recommendation, all identified determinants should be treated according to priority. In addition, improving the way IT Changes are implemented will definitely reduce the IT incident tickets.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.107-129
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• 2008

The purpose of this paper is to critically examine Korean government's efforts in policy making and implementation regarding the Korea National Health Insurance System in the past and suggest a new paradigm for future policy changes. The structural and political characteristics of the Korea National Health Insurance, where health care services are provided almost exclusively by the private providers and funding for health comes equally from public and private sources, imply persistent difficulties in the operation of the system This may partially explain why the Korean system has continually experienced conflicts among stakeholders whenever there was an attempt to change policy. In this paper, we discuss four cases to illustrate such difficulties and barriers. We propose that in order to address these challenges and reduce policy errors as well as unintended results, it is necessary to restructure policy making process from being oriented toward 'quantitative expansion' to 'qualitative maturity', from a 'linear thinking' to a 'system thinking', from taking a 'top-down' to a 'governance and participatory' decision making process.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.283-301
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• 2014

In 2010, only 14 tropical cyclones (TCs) were generated over the western North Pacific (WNP), which was the smallest since 1951. This study summarizes characteristics of TCs generated in 2010 over the WNP and investigates the causes of the record-breaking TC genesis. A long-term variation of TC activity in the WNP and verification of official track forecast in 2010 are also examined. Monthly tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data reveal that El Ni$\tilde{n}$o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in 2010 was shifted from El Ni$\tilde{n}$o to La Ni$\tilde{n}$a in June and the La Ni$\tilde{n}$a event was strong and continued to the end of the year. We found that these tropical environments leaded to unfavorable conditions for TC formation at main TC development area prior to May and at tropics east of $140^{\circ}E$ during summer mostly due to low SST, weak convection, and strong vertical wind shear in those areas. The similar ENSO event (in shifting time and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a intensity) also occurred in 1998, which was the second smallest TC genesis year (16 TCs) since 1951. The common point of the two years suggests that the ENSO episode shifting from El Ni$\tilde{n}$o to strong La Ni$\tilde{n}$a in summer leads to extremely low TC genesis during La Ni$\tilde{n}$a although more samples are needed for confidence. In 2010, three TCs, DIANMU (1004), KOMPASU (1007) and MALOU (1009), influenced the Korean Peninsula (KP) in spite of low total TC genesis. These TCs were all generated at high latitude above $20^{\circ}N$ and arrived over the KP in short time. Among them, KOMPASU (1007) brought the most serious damage to the KP due to strong wind. For 14 TCs in 2010, mean official track forecast error of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for 48 hours was 215 km, which was the highest among other foreign agencies although the errors are generally decreasing for last 10 years, suggesting that more efforts are needed to improve the forecast skill.

• Atmosphere
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.183-198
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to summarize the tropical cyclone (TC) activity of 2008 over the western North Pacific including the verification of the official track and intensity forecast errors of these TCs. The TC activity - frequency, Normalized Typhoon Activity (NTA), and life span - was lower than 58-year (1951-2008) average. 22 tropical cyclones of tropical storm (TS) intensity or higher formed in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2008. The total number is less than 58-year average frequency of 26.4. Out of 22 tropical cyclones, 11 TCs reached typhoon (TY) intensity, while the rest 11 TCs only reached severe tropical storm (STS) and tropical storm (TS) intensity - six STS and five TS storms. One typhoon KALMAEGI (0807) among them affected the Korea peninsula. However, no significant impact - casualty or property damage - was reported. On average of 22 TCs in 2008, the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) official track forecast error for 48 hours was 229 km. There was a big challenge for individual cyclones such as 0806 FENGSHEN and 0817 HIGOS presenting significant forecast error, with both intricate tracks and irregular moving speed. The tropical cyclone season in 2008 began in April with the formation of NEOGURI (0801). In May, four TCs formed in the western North Pacific in response to enhanced convective activity. On the other hand, the TC activity was very weak from June to August. It is found that the unusual anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower level and weak convection near the Philippines are dominant during summertime. The convection and atmospheric circulation in the western North Pacific contributed unfavorable condition for TC activity in the 2008 summertime. The 2008 TC activity has continued the below normal state since mid 1990s which is apparent the decadal variability in TC activity.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.187-195
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• 2019

The needs for precise diagnostics and farm management-decision aids have increased to reduce the risk of climate change and environmental stress. Crop simulation models have been widely used to search optimal solutions for effective cultural practices. However, limited knowledge on physiological responses to environmental variation would make it challenging to apply crop simulation models to a wide range of studies. Advanced research facilities would help investigation of plant response to the environment. In the present study, the sunlit controlled environment chambers, known as Korean SPAR (Soil-Plant-Atmosphere-Research) system, was developed by renovating existing SPAR system. The Korean SPAR system controls and monitors major environmental variables including atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, temperature and soil moisture. Furthermore, plants are allowed to grow under natural sunlight. Key physiological and physical data such as canopy photosynthesis and respiration, canopy water and nutrient use over the whole growth period are also collected automatically. As a case study, it was shown that the Korean SPAR system would be useful for collection of data needed for understanding the growth and developmental processes of a crop, e.g., soybean. In addition, we have demonstrated that the canopy photosynthetic data of the Korean SPAR indicate the precise representation of physiological responses to environment variation. As a result, physical and physiological data obtained from the Korean SPAR are expected to be useful for development of an advanced crop simulation model minimizing errors and confounding factors that usually occur in field experiments.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.101-115
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• 2018

The Long Valley area and its surroundings are part of a major volcano system where inflation occurred in the resurgent dome in the 1990s. We used ENVISAT data to monitor surface deformation of the Long Valley area and its surroundings after the inflation, from 2003-2010. To retrieve the time series of the deformation, we applied the refined Small BAseline Subset (SBAS) algorithm which is improved using an iterative approach to minimize unwrapping error. Moreover, ascending and descending data were used to decompose the horizontal and vertical deformation in detail. To confirm refined SBAS results, we used GPS dataset. The InSAR errors are estimated as ${\pm}1.0mm/yr$ and ${\pm}0.8mm/yr$ from ascending and descending tracks, respectively. Compare to the previous study of 1990s over the Long Valley and its surroundings, Paoha Island and CASA geothermal area still subside. The deformation pattern in the Long Valley area during the study period (2003-2010) went through both subsidence (2003-2007) and slow uplift(2007-2010) episodes. Our research also shows no deformation signal near McGee Creek. Our study provided a better understanding of the surface changes of the indicators in the 1990s and 2000s.