• 제목/요약/키워드: accuracy and predictive capability

검색결과 33건 처리시간 0.045초

A New Architecture of Genetically Optimized Self-Organizing Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Networks by Means of Information Granulation

  • Park, Ho-Sung;Oh, Sung-Kwun;Ahn, Tae-Chon
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 제어로봇시스템학회 2005년도 ICCAS
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    • pp.1505-1509
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    • 2005
  • This paper introduces a new architecture of genetically optimized self-organizing fuzzy polynomial neural networks by means of information granulation. The conventional SOFPNNs developed so far are based on mechanisms of self-organization and evolutionary optimization. The augmented genetically optimized SOFPNN using Information Granulation (namely IG_gSOFPNN) results in a structurally and parametrically optimized model and comes with a higher level of flexibility in comparison to the one we encounter in the conventional FPNN. With the aid of the information granulation, we determine the initial location (apexes) of membership functions and initial values of polynomial function being used in the premised and consequence part of the fuzzy rules respectively. The GA-based design procedure being applied at each layer of genetically optimized self-organizing fuzzy polynomial neural networks leads to the selection of preferred nodes with specific local characteristics (such as the number of input variables, the order of the polynomial, a collection of the specific subset of input variables, and the number of membership function) available within the network. To evaluate the performance of the IG_gSOFPNN, the model is experimented with using gas furnace process data. A comparative analysis shows that the proposed IG_gSOFPNN is model with higher accuracy as well as more superb predictive capability than intelligent models presented previously.

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Predictive capability of fasting-state glucose and insulin measurements for abnormal glucose tolerance in women with polycystic ovary syndrome

  • Chun, Sungwook
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • 제48권2호
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    • pp.156-162
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    • 2021
  • Objective: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the predictive capability of fasting-state measurements of glucose and insulin levels alone for abnormal glucose tolerance in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Methods: In total, 153 Korean women with PCOS were included in this study. The correlations between the 2-hour postload glucose (2-hr PG) level during the 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and other parameters were evaluated using Pearson correlation coefficients and linear regression analysis. The predictive accuracy of fasting glucose and insulin levels and other fasting-state indices for assessing insulin sensitivity derived from glucose and insulin levels for abnormal glucose tolerance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results: Significant correlations were observed between the 2-hr PG level and most fasting-state parameters in women with PCOS. However, the area under the ROC curve values for each fasting-state parameter for predicting abnormal glucose tolerance were all between 0.5 and 0.7 in the study participants, which falls into the "less accurate" category for prediction. Conclusion: Fasting-state measurements of glucose and insulin alone are not enough to predict abnormal glucose tolerance in women with PCOS. A standard OGTT is needed to screen for impaired glucose tolerance and type 2 diabetes mellitus in women with PCOS.

Deep learning method for compressive strength prediction for lightweight concrete

  • Yaser A. Nanehkaran;Mohammad Azarafza;Tolga Pusatli;Masoud Hajialilue Bonab;Arash Esmatkhah Irani;Mehdi Kouhdarag;Junde Chen;Reza Derakhshani
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제32권3호
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    • pp.327-337
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    • 2023
  • Concrete is the most widely used building material, with various types including high- and ultra-high-strength, reinforced, normal, and lightweight concretes. However, accurately predicting concrete properties is challenging due to the geotechnical design code's requirement for specific characteristics. To overcome this issue, researchers have turned to new technologies like machine learning to develop proper methodologies for concrete specification. In this study, we propose a highly accurate deep learning-based predictive model to investigate the compressive strength (UCS) of lightweight concrete with natural aggregates (pumice). Our model was implemented on a database containing 249 experimental records and revealed that water, cement, water-cement ratio, fine-coarse aggregate, aggregate substitution rate, fine aggregate replacement, and superplasticizer are the most influential covariates on UCS. To validate our model, we trained and tested it on random subsets of the database, and its performance was evaluated using a confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) overall accuracy. The proposed model was compared with widely known machine learning methods such as MLP, SVM, and DT classifiers to assess its capability. In addition, the model was tested on 25 laboratory UCS tests to evaluate its predictability. Our findings showed that the proposed model achieved the highest accuracy (accuracy=0.97, precision=0.97) and the lowest error rate with a high learning rate (R2=0.914), as confirmed by ROC (AUC=0.971), which is higher than other classifiers. Therefore, the proposed method demonstrates a high level of performance and capability for UCS predictions.

Research on Early Academic Warning by a Hybrid Methodology

  • Lun, Guanchen;Zhu, Lu;Chen, Haotian;Jeong, Dongwon
    • 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정보통신학회 2021년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.21-22
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    • 2021
  • Early academic warning is considered as an inherent problem in education data mining. Early and timely concern and guidance can save a student's university career. It is widely assumed as a multi-class classification system in view of machine learning. Therefore, An accurate and precise methodical solution is a complicated task to accomplish. For this issue, we present a hybrid model employing rough set theory with a back-propagation neural network to ameliorate the predictive capability of the system with an illustrative example. The experimental results show that it is an effective early academic warning model with an escalating improvement in predictive accuracy.

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공간 탐색 최적화 알고리즘을 이용한 K-Means 클러스터링 기반 다항식 방사형 기저 함수 신경회로망: 설계 및 비교 해석 (K-Means-Based Polynomial-Radial Basis Function Neural Network Using Space Search Algorithm: Design and Comparative Studies)

  • 김욱동;오성권
    • 제어로봇시스템학회논문지
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    • 제17권8호
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    • pp.731-738
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we introduce an advanced architecture of K-Means clustering-based polynomial Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (p-RBFNNs) designed with the aid of SSOA (Space Search Optimization Algorithm) and develop a comprehensive design methodology supporting their construction. In order to design the optimized p-RBFNNs, a center value of each receptive field is determined by running the K-Means clustering algorithm and then the center value and the width of the corresponding receptive field are optimized through SSOA. The connections (weights) of the proposed p-RBFNNs are of functional character and are realized by considering three types of polynomials. In addition, a WLSE (Weighted Least Square Estimation) is used to estimate the coefficients of polynomials (serving as functional connections of the network) of each node from output node. Therefore, a local learning capability and an interpretability of the proposed model are improved. The proposed model is illustrated with the use of nonlinear function, NOx called Machine Learning dataset. A comparative analysis reveals that the proposed model exhibits higher accuracy and superb predictive capability in comparison to some previous models available in the literature.

GA-based Feed-forward Self-organizing Neural Network Architecture and Its Applications for Multi-variable Nonlinear Process Systems

  • Oh, Sung-Kwun;Park, Ho-Sung;Jeong, Chang-Won;Joo, Su-Chong
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제3권3호
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    • pp.309-330
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we introduce the architecture of Genetic Algorithm(GA) based Feed-forward Polynomial Neural Networks(PNNs) and discuss a comprehensive design methodology. A conventional PNN consists of Polynomial Neurons, or nodes, located in several layers through a network growth process. In order to generate structurally optimized PNNs, a GA-based design procedure for each layer of the PNN leads to the selection of preferred nodes(PNs) with optimal parameters available within the PNN. To evaluate the performance of the GA-based PNN, experiments are done on a model by applying Medical Imaging System(MIS) data to a multi-variable software process. A comparative analysis shows that the proposed GA-based PNN is modeled with higher accuracy and more superb predictive capability than previously presented intelligent models.

Application of a support vector machine for prediction of piping and internal stability of soils

  • Xue, Xinhua
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제18권5호
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    • pp.493-502
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    • 2019
  • Internal stability is an important safety issue for levees, embankments, and other earthen structures. Since a large part of the world's population lives near oceans, lakes and rivers, floods resulting from breaching of dams can lead to devastating disasters with tremendous loss of life and property, especially in densely populated areas. There are some main factors that affect the internal stability of dams, levees and other earthen structures, such as the erodibility of the soil, the water velocity inside the soil mass and the geometry of the earthen structure, etc. Thus, the mechanism of internal erosion and stability of soils is very complicated and it is vital to investigate the assessment methods of internal stability of soils in embankment dams and their foundations. This paper presents an improved support vector machine (SVM) model to predict the internal stability of soils. The grid search algorithm (GSA) is employed to find the optimal parameters of SVM firstly, and then the cross - validation (CV) method is employed to estimate the classification accuracy of the GSA-SVM model. Two examples of internal stability of soils are presented to validate the predictive capability of the proposed GSA-SVM model. In addition to verify the effectiveness of the proposed GSA-SVM model, the predictions from the proposed GSA-SVM model were compared with those from the traditional back propagation neural network (BPNN) model. The results showed that the proposed GSA-SVM model is a feasible and efficient tool for assessing the internal stability of soils with high accuracy.

Win-Loss Prediction Using AOS Game User Data

  • Ye-Ji Kim;Jung-Hye Min
    • 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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    • 제28권12호
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2023
  • 현대 사회의 새로운 스포츠로 정의되는 e-스포츠는 세계적으로 많은 사랑을 받는 스포츠로 자리매김했다. 그 중, E-sports를 대표하는 AOS(Aeon of Strife) 장르의 게임은 플레이어 개개인과 팀의 운영이 승패를 좌우하는 요소가 된다는 특징을 가진다. 본 논문은 실제 유저들의 게임 데이터를 수집하고 데이터를 통계적 기법으로 분석하여 정보를 제공한다. 또한, 수집한 데이터를 활용해 머신러닝 기법을 이용하여 승패 예측 모형을 설계하고 실험한다. 5개의 머신러닝 알고리즘이 사용되었고, 평균적으로 개인 데이터 모형에서는 Accuracy 80%, 팀 데이터 모형에서는 Accuracy 95%의 성능을 보인다. 본 연구에서 모형 설계 시 사용된 데이터는 개인 데이터 1,149,950건, 팀 데이터 230,234건으로 규모가 크고 일반 유저들의 플레이 성격을 잘 반영하고 있기 때문에 개발사의 게임 운영이나 일반 유저의 전략 수립 등에 도움이 될 것으로 기대한다. 실험 결과, 개인 데이터 모형과 팀 데이터 모형을 비교하였을 때, 팀 단위 모형의 성능이 상대적으로 매우 좋게 나타났다.

Ensembles of neural network with stochastic optimization algorithms in predicting concrete tensile strength

  • Hu, Juan;Dong, Fenghui;Qiu, Yiqi;Xi, Lei;Majdi, Ali;Ali, H. Elhosiny
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • 제45권2호
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    • pp.205-218
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    • 2022
  • Proper calculation of splitting tensile strength (STS) of concrete has been a crucial task, due to the wide use of concrete in the construction sector. Following many recent studies that have proposed various predictive models for this aim, this study suggests and tests the functionality of three hybrid models in predicting the STS from the characteristics of the mixture components including cement compressive strength, cement tensile strength, curing age, the maximum size of the crushed stone, stone powder content, sand fine modulus, water to binder ratio, and the ratio of sand. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network incorporates invasive weed optimization (IWO), cuttlefish optimization algorithm (CFOA), and electrostatic discharge algorithm (ESDA) which are among the newest optimization techniques. A dataset from the earlier literature is used for exploring and extrapolating the STS behavior. The results acquired from several accuracy criteria demonstrated a nice learning capability for all three hybrid models viz. IWO-MLP, CFOA-MLP, and ESDA-MLP. Also in the prediction phase, the prediction products were in a promising agreement (above 88%) with experimental results. However, a comparative look revealed the ESDA-MLP as the most accurate predictor. Considering mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) index, the error of ESDA-MLP was 9.05%, while the corresponding value for IWO-MLP and CFOA-MLP was 9.17 and 13.97%, respectively. Since the combination of MLP and ESDA can be an effective tool for optimizing the concrete mixture toward a desirable STS, the last part of this study is dedicated to extracting a predictive formula from this model.

진화론적 최적 자기구성 다항식 뉴럴 네트워크 (Genetically Optimized Self-Organizing Polynomial Neural Networks)

  • 박호성;박병준;장성환;오성권
    • 대한전기학회논문지:시스템및제어부문D
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    • 제53권1호
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    • pp.40-49
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we propose a new architecture of Genetic Algorithms(GAs)-based Self-Organizing Polynomial Neural Networks(SOPNN), discuss a comprehensive design methodology and carry out a series of numeric experiments. The conventional SOPNN is based on the extended Group Method of Data Handling(GMDH) method and utilized the polynomial order (viz. linear, quadratic, and modified quadratic) as well as the number of node inputs fixed (selected in advance by designer) at Polynomial Neurons (or nodes) located in each layer through a growth process of the network. Moreover it does not guarantee that the SOPNN generated through learning has the optimal network architecture. But the proposed GA-based SOPNN enable the architecture to be a structurally more optimized network, and to be much more flexible and preferable neural network than the conventional SOPNN. In order to generate the structurally optimized SOPNN, GA-based design procedure at each stage (layer) of SOPNN leads to the selection of preferred nodes (or PNs) with optimal parameters- such as the number of input variables, input variables, and the order of the polynomial-available within SOPNN. An aggregate performance index with a weighting factor is proposed in order to achieve a sound balance between approximation and generalization (predictive) abilities of the model. A detailed design procedure is discussed in detail. To evaluate the performance of the GA-based SOPNN, the model is experimented with using two time series data (gas furnace and NOx emission process data of gas turbine power plant). A comparative analysis shows that the proposed GA-based SOPNN is model with higher accuracy as well as more superb predictive capability than other intelligent models presented previously.