• Title/Summary/Keyword: accident reduction model

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Prediction on the Accident Reduction Effects of the Red Light Cameras Installation (무인신호위반단속장비 설치에 따른 사고감소효과 예측)

  • Kim, Tae Young;Beak, Tae Hun;Park, Byung Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2012
  • PURPOSES : This study deals with the effects on the installation of RLC(Red Light Camera). The objective is to analyze the effects of accident reduction after the installation of RLC. METHODS : In pursuing the above, the study uses the 703 accident data occurred at the 64 intersections which RLC are installed or not installed. RESULTS : The main results are as follows. First, Poisson RLC accident model developed in this study is analyzed to be statistically significant. Second, using the above developed model, 33 intersections among 40 intersections are predicted to have the decreasing effects of accidents after the installation of RLC. Finally, the reduction effects are analyzed to be affected by ADT and the number of left-turn lane. CONCLUSIONS : This study is expected to improve the efficiency of RLC and to help in decision-making of RLC installation.

Safety Improvement Analysis of Roundabouts in Jeollabuk-do Province using Accident Prediction Model (사고예측모형을 활용한 회전교차로 안전성 향상에 관한 연구 - 전라북도를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Chil Hyun;Kwon, Yong Seok;Kang, Kuy Dong
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2016
  • PURPOSES : There are many recently constructed roundabouts in Jeollabuk-do province. This study analyzed how roundabouts reduce the risk of accidents and improve safety in the province. METHODS : This study analyzed safety improvement at roundabouts by using an accident prediction model that uses an Empirical Bayes method based on negative binomial distribution. RESULTS : The results of our analysis model showed that the total number of accidents decreased from 130 to 51. Roundabouts also decreased casualties; the number of casualties decreased from 7 to 0 and the seriously wounded from 87 to 16. The effectiveness of accident reduction as analyzed by the accident prediction model with the Empirical Bayes method was 60%. CONCLUSIONS : The construction of roundabouts can bring about a reduction in the number of accidents and casualties, and make intersections safer.

Safety Performance Models of Improvement Projects of Frequent Traffic Accident Locations (사고잦은곳 개선사업의 안전성과 모형)

  • Park, Byung-Ho;Park, Gil-Su;Kim, Tae-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.89-94
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    • 2010
  • This study deals with the traffic accident according to the improvement projects of frequent accident locations. The objective is to analyze the impact of improvements on the accident reduction. In pursuing the above, the study gives the particular attentions to developing the models based on the data of 70 intersections improved. The main results analyzed are as follows. First, 4 multiple linear regression accident models(total, side right-angle, rear end and side stripe accident) which were statistically significant were developed. Second, total accidents reduction by sight-distance and turning traffic flow improvements, side right-angle by sight-distance, over-speed and lane operation, rear end by turning traffic flow, signal and lane operation, and side stripe by traffic impedance improvements were analyzed. Finally, the above 4 models were evaluated to be statically significant through the correlation analysis and pair-sample t-test.

Effects on the Accident Reduction of Red Light Camera Using Empirical Bayes Method (경험적 베이즈 방법을 이용한 무인신호위반단속장비의 사고감소 효과)

  • Kim, Tae-Young;Park, Byung-Ho
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.46-54
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    • 2009
  • This study deals with the effects on the accident reduction according to the installation of RLC (red light cameras). The objective is to analyze the effects on the accident reduction using EB (Empirical Bayes) method. In pursuing the above, the study uses the 728 accident data occurred at the 28 intersections which RLC are installed. The main results are as follows. First, the effects of accident reduction were analyzed to be 20.74% by simple before-after study method. Second, the safety performance functions (SPF) were developed by the Poisson and negative binominal regression models, and since the over-dispersion parameter was close to zero, Poisson model was evaluated to be more appropriate than the negative binominal model. Also, the Poisson model was analyzed to be statistically significant because its ${\rho}^2$ value was 0.409. Finally, the results of analysis using an EB method showed that the accidents were reduced by range from 3.89 to 29.23%.

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A study on the reduction ratio of highway capacity in accordance to occurrence of accident (사고발생에 따른 고속도로용량감소율에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seong-Hun;Lee, Yeong-In
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.141-148
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    • 2009
  • An inappropriate evaluation of capacity leads to the incorrect and impractical result due to the transfer of error to the analysis and the evaluation on highway system. The traffic accident which reduces the capacity of road temporarily generates unpredictable congestion, causing difficulties in congestion management. Therefore, this research aims on the measurement of the capacity of the road in accordance to the speed at the accident which is a basic factor when performing analysis. Based on the given approach, the behavior of a vehicle in highway is understood to develop model of critical gap and model of maximum flow rate with respect to the speed of traffic flow. With the established model, the reduction rate of the capacity in highway system at the accident is measured. The result shows that the capacity is reduced by 37% when the speed of the traffic flow is 40km/h. Although the developed model can't be verified clearly, this research has shown that the reduction rate of the capacity in road system has a close relation to the speed.

Regional Traffic Accident Model of Elderly Drivers based on Urban Decline Index (도시쇠퇴 지표를 적용한 지역별 고령운전자 교통사고 영향 분석)

  • Park, Na Young;Park, Byung Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.137-142
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    • 2017
  • This study deals with the relation between traffic accident and urban decline. The purpose of this study is to develop the regional accident models of elderly drivers. In order to develop the count data models, 2009-2015 traffic accident data from TAAS(traffic accident analysis system) and urban decline data from urban regeneration information system are collected. The main results are as follows. First, the null hypothesis that there is no difference in the accident number between elderly and non-elderly drivers is rejected. Second, 8 accident models which are all statistically significant have been developed. Finally, common variables between elderly and non-elderly are ratio of elderly people, elderly person living alone/1,000 persons and wholesale/retail employments/1,000 persons. This study could be expected to give many implications to making regional accident reduction policy.

Pedestrian Accident Severity Analysis and Modeling by Arterial Road Function (간선도로 기능별 보행사고 심각도 분석과 모형 개발)

  • Beck, Tea Hun;Park, Min kyu;Park, Byung Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.111-118
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES: The purposes are to analyze the pedestrian accident severity and to develop the accident models by arterial road function. METHODS: To analyze the accident, count data and ordered logit models are utilized in this study. In pursuing the above, this study uses pedestrian accident data from 2007 to 2011 in Cheongju. RESULTS : The main results are as follows. First, daytime, Tue.Wed.Thu., over-speeding, male pedestrian over 65 old are selected as the independent variables to increase pedestrian accident severity. Second, as the accident models of main and minor arterial roads, the negative binomial models are developed, which are analyzed to be statistically significant. Third, such the main variables related to pedestrian accidents as traffic and pedestrian volume, road width, number of exit/entry are adopted in the models. Finally, Such the policy guidelines as the installation of pedestrian fence, speed hump and crosswalks with pedestrian refuge area, designated pedestrian zone, and others are suggested for accident reduction. CONCLUSIONS: This study analyzed the pedestrian accident severity, and developed the negative binomial accident models. The results of this study expected to give some implications to the pedestrian safety improvement in Cheongju.

Accident Models of Rotary by Age Group in Korea (국내 로터리의 연령대별 사고모형)

  • Park, Min Kyu;Park, Byung Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.121-129
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    • 2013
  • PURPOSES : This study deals with the traffic accidents of rotary in Korea. The objective of this study is to develop the accident models by age group based on the various data of rotaries. METHODS : In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to classifying the accident data of 17 rotaries by age, collecting the data of geometric structure, traffic volume and others, and developing the models using SPSS 17.0 and EXCEL. RESULTS : First, 3 multiple linear regression models which were all statistically significant were developed. The value of model of under 30-49 age group were, however, evaluated to be 0.688 and be less than those of other models. Second, the most powerful variables were analyzed to be traffic volume in the model of under 30 age group, circulatory roadway width in the model of 30-49 age group, and the number of approach lane in the model of above 50 age group. Finally, the test results of accident models using RMSE were all evaluated to be fitted to the given data. CONCLUSIONS : This study propose install streetlights, speed humps and widen Circulatory as effective improvements for reduction of accident in rotary.

A Study on the Analysis Model for School Safety Accident (학교안전사고 분석모형에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sang-Keun;Yoon, Yong-Gi
    • The Journal of Sustainable Design and Educational Environment Research
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2013
  • Low birthrate is causing a reduction in the number of students at kindergartens, elementary schools, middle schools and high schools nationwide and yet, school safety accidents are on a constant rise, which was reported to be 237 accidents a day on average in 2011. Such phenomenon is proving how the school safety policy is not doing what it was supposed to do. In order to decrease the school safety accidents, first, causes of the accidents should be analyzed and then, prevention measures should be designed. For that reason, the study looked into the present condition of the school safety accidents and safety accident theories and based on the results, "School Safety Accident Analysis Matrix Model" was proposed. With a matrix method of the accident types (17 of them) and hazard factors (9 of them) applied, the concerned model analyzed a total of 153 accident causes. In consideration of the results from the analysis, the study suggested that the education authority should open a safety organization and design a school safety policy that would systematically deal with safety education, prevention measures practice, accident investigation and analysis, and countermeasures practice as well.

Development of Accident Density Model in Korea (국내 교통사고 밀도 모형 개발)

  • Park, Na Young;Kim, Tae Yang;Park, Byung Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.130-135
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    • 2017
  • This study deal with the traffic accident. The purpose of this study is to develop the accident density models reflecting the transportation and socioeconomic characteristics based on 230 zones of Korea. In this study, The models which are tested to be statistically significant are developed through multiple linear regression analysis. The main research results are as follows. First, in the transportation-based model, road length, avenue ratio, number of intersections and tunnels are analyzed to be positive to the model, however, school zone is analyzed to be negative to the model. Second, in the socioeconomic-based model, population density, transportation vulnerable ratio, children and truck ratio are analyzed to be positive to the model. Finally, in the integrated models, road ratio, population density, transportation vulnerable ratio, children ratio, truck ratio and number of companies are analyzed to be positive, however, school zone is analyzed to be negative to the model. This results could be expected to give good implications to accident-reduction policy-making.