• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• 제40권8호
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• pp.721-725
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• 2016

This paper reviews the analysis of a given scenario according to the Hybrid Model, and why accident causation models are necessary in casualty investigations. The given scenario has been analyzed according to the Hybrid Model using its main five components, fallible decisions, line management, psychological precursors to unsafe acts, unsafe acts, and inadequate defenses. In addition, the differences between the SHEL and the Hybrid Model, and the importance of a safety barrier during an accident investigation, are shown in this paper. One unit of SHEL can be linked with another unit of SHEL. However, it cannot be used for the analysis of an accident. Therefore, we must use an accident causation model, which can be a Hybrid Model. This can explain the "How" and "Why" of accident, so it is a suitable model for analyzing them. During an accident investigation, the reason we focus on a safety barrier is to create another safety barrier or to change an existing safety barrier if that barrier fails. Hence, the paper shows how a sea accident can be investigated, and we propose a preventive way of avoiding the accident through combining the methods of different models for the future.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.177-186
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• 2014

Depending on the change of lifestyle and the improvement of people's living standards and rapid industrialization, urbanization of recent, demand for water is increasing rapidly. So emissions of domestic wastewater and various industrial waste water has increased, and water quality is worsening day by day. Therefore, in order to provide a measure against the occurrence of water pollution accident, this study was tried to simulate water pollution accident. This study simulated 2008 Gimcheon phenol accident using 1,2-D model, and analyze scenario for prevent of water pollution accident. Consequently the developed 1-D model presents high reappearance when compared with 2-D model, and has been able to obtain results in a short simulation run time. This study will contribute to the water pollution incident response prediction system and water quality analysis in the future.

• 자동차안전학회지
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• 제13권3호
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• pp.69-77
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• 2021

Although accident data from the National Police Agency and insurance companies do not know the vehicle safety, the damage level information can be obtained from the data managed by the bus credit association or the bus company itself. So the accident severity was analyzed based on the side impact accidents using accident repair cost. K-means clustering analysis separated the cost of accident repair into 'minor', 'moderate', 'severe', and 'very severe'. In addition, the side impact accident severity was analyzed by using an ordered logit model. As a result, it is appeared that the longer the repair period, the greater the impact on the severity of the side impact accident. Also, it is appeared that the higher the number of collision points, the greater the impact on the severity of the side impact accident. In addition, oblique collisions of the angle of impact were derived to affect the severity of the accident less than right angle collisions. Finally, the absence of opponent vehicle and large commercial vehicles involved accidents were shown to have less impact on the side impact accident severity than passenger cars.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.5-13
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• 1992

If zero-accident movement is to be successful, the objective goal period should be surely obtainable, and much more in our country where frequency rate of injury are remarkably fluc-tuating. However In our country, as far as we know, no method to establish a reasonable zero-accident goal period is guaranteed. In thls paper, a new establishing-method of reasonable goal period for individual industry with considering recent accident trend is presented. A mathematical model for industrial accidents generation was analyzed, and a stochastic process model for the accident generation inteual was formulated. This model could tell the accident generation rate in future by understanding the accident tendency through the time-series analysis and search for the distribution of numbers of accidents and accident interval. On the basis of this, the forecasting method of goal achievement probability by the size and the establishment method of reasonable goal period were developed.

• 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.570-576
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• 2017

고속도로에서 화물차는 승용차에 비해 도로의 많은 부분을 점유한다. 이로 인해 도로의 용량은 상대적으로 감소하며, 국소적으로 주변 운전자에게 위협적인 요소로 작용한다. 화물차 사고는 일반적인 사고와 달리 사고 특성이 다르므로 분석 방법 또한 일반적인 사고와 다르게 적용해야 한다. 사고 분석 방법 중 사고예측모형은 특정 구간에 대한 사고건수를 예측하며 교통계획을 수립할 때 사고 예방을 위한 대책 수립과 도로의 위험성을 진단할 때 활용된다. 이에 본 연구는 고속도로의 화물차 간 사고 비율을 적용하여 사고예측모형에 투입될 수 있는 보정계수를 산출하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 연구를 위해 고속도로를 대상으로 사고 자료를 수집하였으며 2014~2016년까지 3개 년도의 교통량 및 사고 자료를 활용하였다. 연간 사고건수를 토대로 사고예측모형을 개발하였으며, 본 연구를 통해 화물차 간 사고 비율에 따른 사고예측모형을 비교함으로써 실질적인 고속도로 사고예측모형을 확인하고 그에 대한 대책을 제시하고자 한다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.50-59
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• 2021

The main purpose of accident analysis is to identify the causal factors and the mechanisms of those factors leading to the accident. However, current accident analysis techniques focus only on finding the factors related to the accident without providing more insightful results, such as structures or mechanisms. For this reason, preventive actions for safety management are concentrated on the elimination of causal factors rather than blocking the connection or chain of accident processes. This greatly reduces the effectiveness of safety management in practice. In the present study, a technique to model the correlational structure of accident risk factors is proposed by using the co-occurrence keyword network analysis technique. To investigate the effectiveness of the proposed technique, a case study involving a portable ladder fall accident is conducted. The results indicate that the proposed technique can construct the correlational structure model of the risk factors of a portable ladder fall accident. This proves the effectiveness of the proposed technique in modeling the correlational structure of accident risk factors.

• 한국화재소방학회논문지
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.72-79
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• 2019

본 연구를 통해 화학사고 사상사고 예측모형을 개발하였다. 모형은 로지스틱회귀분석 모델을 활용하여 사상사고에 영향을 주는 변수를 도출하여 적용하였고, 통계적 검증방법과 오즈비를 활용하여 모형의 신뢰성 및 정확성을 검증하였다. 모형에 활용한 사고 자료는 과거 발생했던 화학사고 통계를 분석하여 활용하였으며, 사고의 유형, 원인, 발생 장소, 사상자 현황 및 사상자를 발생시킨 화학사고 등의 자료 분석을 통해 통계적으로 유의하게 나타난 독립변수(p < 0.05)를 적용하였다. 본 연구에서 개발한 모형은 사업장에서 화학사고로 인해 발생하는 사상사고의 예방 및 안전시스템 구축을 위한 연구로서 의의가 있다고 할 수 있다. 모형에 의한 분석결과 사상사고 발생에 가장 크게 영향을 미치는 변수는 폭발에 의한 화학사고인 것으로 조사되었다. 따라서 사업장에서 발생하는 폭발 유형의 화학사고를 예방하기 위한 대책마련이 시급하다고 판단된다.

• 대한인간공학회지
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.137-150
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• 2011

Nationally and internationally reported statistics on marine accidents show that 80% or more of all marine accidents are caused fully or in part by human error. According to the statistics of marine accident causes from Korean Maritime Safety Tribunal(KMST), operating errors are implicated in 78.7% of all marine accidents that occurred from 2002 to 2006. In the case of the collision accidents, about 95% of all collision accidents are caused by operating errors, and those human error related collision accidents are mostly caused by failure of maintaining proper lookout and breach of the regulations for preventing collision. One way of reducing the probability of occurrence of the human error related marine accidents effectively is by investigating and understanding the role of the human elements in accident causation. In this paper, causal factors/root causes classification systems for marine accident investigation were reviewed and some typical human error analysis methods used in shipping industry were described in detail. This paper also proposed a human error analysis method that contains a cognitive process model, a human error analysis technique(Maritime HFACS) and a marine accident causal chains, and then its application to the actual marine accident was provided as a case study in order to demonstrate the framework of the method.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.90-95
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• 2010

This study deals with the accident model of arterial link section in Cheongju. The objective is to develop the accident model of arterial link section using the logistic regression. In pursuing the above, the study uses the 258 accident data occurred at the 322 arterial link section. The main results are as follows. First, Nagellerke $R^2$ of developed accident model is analyzed to be 0.309 and t-values of variable that explains goodness of fit are evaluated to be significant. Second, the variables adopted in the model are AADT, the number of exit and entry. These variables are all analyzed to be statistically significant. Finally, the analysis of correct classification rate shows that the total accident of correct classification rate is analyzed to be 72.7% at the arterial link section.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.482-490
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• 2017

본 연구는 사고심각도 분류 및 예측을 위한 철도사고조사 통계기법에 관한 연구이다. 그동안의 선형 회귀분석은 사고 심각도 분석에 어려움이 있었으나 로지스틱회귀분석은 이를 보완할 수 있었다. 데이터마이닝 기법인 로지스틱회귀분석을 활용, 서울지하철(5~8호선) 역사 내 전도사고 중 에스컬레이터 전도사고 발생에 영향을 주는 사고예측 모형 변수는 사고자 연령, 음주여부, 사고 당시상황 및 행동, 핸드레일 잡음 여부였다. 분석의 정확도는 76.7%로 설명되었고 분석방법 결과에 따르면 정확도와 유의수준 측에서 로지스틱회귀분석 방법이 도시철도 사상사고 예측모형을 개발하는데 유용한 데이터마이닝 기법으로 판단된다.