• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.91-98
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• 2011

We develop a model to predict traffic accidents in Korea. In contrast to the classical approach that mainly uses regression analysis, Bayesian approach is adopted. A dependent model that incorporates the data from different kinds of accidents is introduced. The rate of severe accident can be updated even with no data of the same kind. The data of minor accident that can be obtained frequently is efficiently used to predict the severe accident.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.51 no.7
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• pp.1776-1783
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• 2019

To accurately analyze the accidents in nuclear reactors, a thermohydraulic-neutronic coupling calculation is required to solve fluid dynamics and nuclear reactor kinetics equations in fine cells simultaneously and evaluate the local effects of neutronic and thermohydraulic parameters on each other. In the present study, a 3D thermohydraulic-neutronic coupling model is developed, validated and then applied for Isfahan MNSR (Miniature Neutron Source reactor) safety analysis. The proposed model is developed using FLUENT software and user defined functions (UDF) are applied to simulate the neutronic behavior of MNSR. The validation of the proposed model is first evaluated using 1mk reactivity insertion experiment into Isfahan MNSR core. Then, the developed coupling code is applied for a design basis accident (DBA) scenario analysis with the insertion of maximum allowed cold core reactivity of 4 mk. The results show that the proposed model is able to predict the behavior of the reactor core under normal and accident conditions with a good accuracy.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2008.06a
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• pp.1499-1504
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• 2008

This study shows risk-based evaluation results of casualty accidents for passengers, railway staffs and MOP(Member of public) on the national railway in South Korea. To evaluate risk of these accidents, the hazardous events and the hazardous factors were identified by the review of the accident history and engineering interpretation of the accident behavior. A probability evaluation model for each hazardous event which was based on the accident appearance scenario was developed by using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique. The probability for each hazardous event was evaluated from the historical data and structured expert judgment. In addition, the severity assessment model utilized by the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) technique was composed of the accident progress scenarios. And the severity for the hazardous events was estimated using fatalities and weighted injuries. The risk assessment model developed can be effectively utilized in defining the risk reduction measures in connection with the option analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.64-73
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• 2020

As Korean government and safety-related organizations make continuous efforts to reduce the number of industrial accidents, accident rate has steadily declined since 2010, thereby recording 0.48% in 2017. However, the number of fatalities due to industrial accidents was 1,987 in 2017, which means that more efforts should be made to reduce the number of industrial accidents. As an essential activity for enhancing the system safety, accident analysis can be effectively used for reducing the number of industrial accidents. Accident analysis aims to understand the process of an accident scenario and to identify the plausible causes of the accident. Accident analysis offers useful information for developing measures for preventing the recurrence of an accident or its similar accidents. However, it seems that the current practice of accident analysis in Korean manufacturing companies takes a simplistic accident model, which is based on a linear and deterministic cause-effect relation. Considering the actual complexities underlying accidents, this would be problematic; it could be more significant in the case of human error-related accidents. Accordingly, it is necessary to use a more elaborated accident model for addressing the complexity and nature of human-error related accidents more systematically. Regarding this, HFACS(Human Factors Analysis and Classification System) can be a viable accident analysis method. It is based on the Swiss cheese model and offers a range of causal factors of a human error-related accident, some of which can be judged as the plausible causes of an accident. HFACS has been widely used in several work domains(e.g. aviation and rail industry) and can be effectively used in Korean industries. However, as HFACS was originally developed in aviation industry, the taxonomy of causal factors may not be easily applied to accidents in Korean industries, particularly manufacturing companies. In addition, the typical characteristics of Korean industries need to be reflected as well. With this issue in mind, we developed HFACS-K as a method for analyzing accidents happening in Korean industries. This paper reports the process of developing HFACS-K, the structure and contents of HFACS-K, and a case study for demonstrating its usefulness.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.505-510
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• 2021

Background: Factors related to root causes can cause commonly occurring accidents such as falls, slips, and jammed injuries. An important means of reducing the frequency of occupational accidents in small- to medium-sized enterprises (SMSEs) of South Korea is to perform intensity analysis of the root cause factors for accident prevention in the cause and effect model like decision models, epidemiological models, system models, human factors models, LCU (life change unit) models, and the domino theory. Especially intensity analysis in a robot system and smart technology as Industry 4.0 is very important in order to minimize the occupational accidents and fatal accident because of the complexity of accident factors. Methods: We have developed the modern cause and effect model that includes factors of root cause through statistical testing to minimize commonly occurring accidents and fatal accidents in SMSEs of South Korea and systematically proposed educational policies for accident prevention. Results: As a result, the consciousness factors among factors of root cause such as unconsciousness, disregard, ignorance, recklessness, and misjudgment had strong relationships with occupational accidents in South Korean SMSEs. Conclusion: We conclude that the educational policies necessary for minimizing these consciousness factors include continuous training procedures followed by periodic hands-on experience, along with perceptual and cognitive education related to occupational health and safety.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.96-101
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• 2009

In this study, a risk-appearance frequency evaluation model for railway level-crossing accidents is developed with the frequency estimation based on the accident history. It follows the worldwide common safety management approach and reflects the operation conditions and accident properties of the domestic railway system. The risk appearance frequency evaluation process contains a development of accident scenarios by defining the system configurations and functions, and a frequency estimation of hazardous events based on the accident history. The developed model is verified with the accident history during 5 years('03-'07) for 3 hazardous events: 'Being trapped in level crossing(Hl)', 'Crossing during warning signal(H2)' and 'Breaking through/detouring the barrier(H3)'. This risk appearance frequency evaluation model will be combined with a consequence evaluation model so as to offer full risk assessment for the railway accident. The accident risk assessment will contribute to improving the safety management of the railway system.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.111-118
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• 2014

PURPOSES: The purposes are to analyze the pedestrian accident severity and to develop the accident models by arterial road function. METHODS: To analyze the accident, count data and ordered logit models are utilized in this study. In pursuing the above, this study uses pedestrian accident data from 2007 to 2011 in Cheongju. RESULTS : The main results are as follows. First, daytime, Tue.Wed.Thu., over-speeding, male pedestrian over 65 old are selected as the independent variables to increase pedestrian accident severity. Second, as the accident models of main and minor arterial roads, the negative binomial models are developed, which are analyzed to be statistically significant. Third, such the main variables related to pedestrian accidents as traffic and pedestrian volume, road width, number of exit/entry are adopted in the models. Finally, Such the policy guidelines as the installation of pedestrian fence, speed hump and crosswalks with pedestrian refuge area, designated pedestrian zone, and others are suggested for accident reduction. CONCLUSIONS: This study analyzed the pedestrian accident severity, and developed the negative binomial accident models. The results of this study expected to give some implications to the pedestrian safety improvement in Cheongju.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.5-24
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• 1994

The purpose of this study is to develop an accident hazard index model in order to be used for the evaluation of regional traffic safety and to develop a driver violation index model in order to identify the primary causes of traffic accidents. The accident hazard index model was developed considering the accident rates based on population and the vehicle registration. The driver violation index model was developed considering the accident rates of each item of driver violation. Using the models developed in this study, it is identified that in the provincial level analysis the degree of the traffic safety of Chungbuk, Chungnam, and Kyungbuk Province are evaluated to be low. In the county level analysis of Kyungnam Province, the degree of the traffic safety of Yangsan, Euirung, Haman, Sachun and Tongyung County are evaluated to be low. Also, it is found that the major driver violations causing accidents in the nation are driving by unlicensed drives, improper passing, and improper railroad crossing : in Kyungnam Province, improper passing is the most driver violation.

• The Korean Journal of Health Service Management
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.13-26
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• 2019

Objectives: To investigate whether medical institutions can prevent accidents by analyzing the root cause of a medical accident and identifying the tendencies. Methods: A total of 345 medical cases were used for the RCA(Root Cause Analysis). The root causes were classified using the SHELL model. The suitability of the model was confirmed by SPSS's MDPREF and Euclidean distance. An SPSS20.0 hierarchical regression analysis was used as an influencing factor on the degree of injury resulting from medical accidents. Results: The SHELL model was suitable for classification. The rates of accident causes were LS49%, L34%, LL10.2%, LE3.7%, LH2.3%. The order in which the degree of a patient's injury was affected were: Risk Threshold (${\beta}=.180$), Time (${\beta}=.175$), Surgical stage (${\beta}=-.166$), Do not use procedure (${\beta}=.147$). Conclusions: Health care institutions should remove priorities through system improvement and training. For patients' safety, the five factors of the SHELL model should be managed in harmony.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.137-142
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• 2017

This study deals with the relation between traffic accident and urban decline. The purpose of this study is to develop the regional accident models of elderly drivers. In order to develop the count data models, 2009-2015 traffic accident data from TAAS(traffic accident analysis system) and urban decline data from urban regeneration information system are collected. The main results are as follows. First, the null hypothesis that there is no difference in the accident number between elderly and non-elderly drivers is rejected. Second, 8 accident models which are all statistically significant have been developed. Finally, common variables between elderly and non-elderly are ratio of elderly people, elderly person living alone/1,000 persons and wholesale/retail employments/1,000 persons. This study could be expected to give many implications to making regional accident reduction policy.