• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.195-220
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• 2018

In this study, we conducted an empirical analysis of the factors that affect the change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Previous studies have focused on the security of the block chain system, the economic ripple effects caused by the cryptocurrency, legal implications and the acceptance to consumer about cryptocurrency. In various area, cryptocurrency was studied and many researcher and people including government, regardless of country, try to utilize cryptocurrency and applicate to its technology. Despite of rapid and dramatic change of cryptocurrencies' price and growth of its effects, empirical study of the factors affecting the price change of cryptocurrency was lack. There were only a few limited studies, business reports and short working paper. Therefore, it is necessary to determine what factors effect on the change of closing Bitcoin price. For analysis, hypotheses were constructed from three dimensions of consumer, industry, and macroeconomics for analysis, and time series data were collected for variables of each dimension. Consumer variables consist of search traffic of Bitcoin, search traffic of bitcoin ban, search traffic of ransomware and search traffic of war. Industry variables were composed GPU vendors' stock price and memory vendors' stock price. Macro-economy variables were contemplated such as U.S. dollar index futures, FOMC policy interest rates, WTI crude oil price. Using above variables, we did times series regression analysis to find relationship between those variables and change of Bitcoin Closing Price. Before the regression analysis to confirm the relationship between change of Bitcoin Closing Price and the other variables, we performed the Unit-root test to verifying the stationary of time series data to avoid spurious regression. Then, using a stationary data, we did the regression analysis. As a result of the analysis, we found that the change of Bitcoin Closing Price has negative effects with search traffic of 'Bitcoin Ban' and US dollar index futures, while change of GPU vendors' stock price and change of WTI crude oil price showed positive effects. In case of 'Bitcoin Ban', it is directly determining the maintenance or abolition of Bitcoin trade, that's why consumer reacted sensitively and effected on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. GPU is raw material of Bitcoin mining. Generally, increasing of companies' stock price means the growth of the sales of those companies' products and services. GPU's demands increases are indirectly reflected to the GPU vendors' stock price. Making an interpretation, a rise in prices of GPU has put a crimp on the mining of Bitcoin. Consequently, GPU vendors' stock price effects on change of Bitcoin Closing Price. And we confirmed U.S. dollar index futures moved in the opposite direction with change of Bitcoin Closing Price. It moved like Gold. Gold was considered as a safe asset to consumers and it means consumer think that Bitcoin is a safe asset. On the other hand, WTI oil price went Bitcoin Closing Price's way. It implies that Bitcoin are regarded to investment asset like raw materials market's product. The variables that were not significant in the analysis were search traffic of bitcoin, search traffic of ransomware, search traffic of war, memory vendor's stock price, FOMC policy interest rates. In search traffic of bitcoin, we judged that interest in Bitcoin did not lead to purchase of Bitcoin. It means search traffic of Bitcoin didn't reflect all of Bitcoin's demand. So, it implies there are some factors that regulate and mediate the Bitcoin purchase. In search traffic of ransomware, it is hard to say concern of ransomware determined the whole Bitcoin demand. Because only a few people damaged by ransomware and the percentage of hackers requiring Bitcoins was low. Also, its information security problem is events not continuous issues. Search traffic of war was not significant. Like stock market, generally it has negative in relation to war, but exceptional case like Gulf war, it moves stakeholders' profits and environment. We think that this is the same case. In memory vendor stock price, this is because memory vendors' flagship products were not VRAM which is essential for Bitcoin supply. In FOMC policy interest rates, when the interest rate is low, the surplus capital is invested in securities such as stocks. But Bitcoin' price fluctuation was large so it is not recognized as an attractive commodity to the consumers. In addition, unlike the stock market, Bitcoin doesn't have any safety policy such as Circuit breakers and Sidecar. Through this study, we verified what factors effect on change of Bitcoin Closing Price, and interpreted why such change happened. In addition, establishing the characteristics of Bitcoin as a safe asset and investment asset, we provide a guide how consumer, financial institution and government organization approach to the cryptocurrency. Moreover, corroborating the factors affecting change of Bitcoin Closing Price, researcher will get some clue and qualification which factors have to be considered in hereafter cryptocurrency study.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.99-143
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• 2016

General aviation and air transport are two wings of the civil aviation industry. Chinese air transport is developing rapidly, and has become the world second air transport system only second to US since 2005. However, Chinese civil aviation is far behind the world average level, and cannot meet requirements of economic construction and social development. The transition and structural adjustment of Chinese economy provide the general aviation with a unprecedented broad market. The prospect of general aviation is promising and anticipated. The development of general aviation industry needs the legislative supports, and the current legislative conditions of Chinese general aviation are undoubtedly far behind the realistic requirements. Accelerating the legislation in Chinese general aviation industry requires scientific legislation concept. First, Legislation must promote development of general aviation industry. The general aviation will serves as a Chinese emerging industry that boosts domestic demand, promotes employment and expedite domestic economic development. We should, based on both the concept of promoting the industrial development of general aviation and national industrial planning, enact and rectify relative laws and regulations. And we should also straighten out the relationship between aviation security and industrial development and promote the revolution of low-altitude airspace management in an all-round way, in order to improve the utilization rate of airspace resources, classify and establish airspace, simplify examination and approval procedure and intensify operation management. In addition, what we should do is to expedite the infrastructure layout construction, guide the differentiated but coordinated development of general aviation industries in various areas, establish a united supervision mechanism of general aviation, redistrict the responsibilities of Chinese Air Control Agency and set up legislation, law enforcement and judicial systems with clarified institutions, clear positioning and classified responsibilities, so as to usher in a new era of the legislative management of Chinese general aviation industry. Second, shift the focus from regulations to both regulations and services. Considering the particularity of the general aviation, we should use American practices for reference and take into account both regulation and service functions when enacting general aviation laws. For example, we should reduce administrative licensing and market supervision, and adopt "criteria" and "approval" management systems for non-commercial and commercial aviation. Furthermore, pay attention to social benefits. Complete social rescuing mechanism through legislation. It should be clarified in legislation that general aviation operators should take the responsibilities of, and ensure to realize social benefits of environmental protection and ecological balance .Finally, rise in line with international standards. Modify Chinese regulations which is inconsistent with international ones to remove barriers to international cooperation. Specify basic legislative principles. One is the principle of coordination. Realize coordination between the civil aviation and general aviation, between military aviation and civil aviation, and among departments. Two is the principle of pertinence. The general aviation has its own rules and specialties, needing to be standardized using specialized laws and regulations. Three is the principle of efficiency. To realize time and space values of general aviation, we should complete rules in aerospace openness, general aviation airport construction, general aviation operations, and regulation enforcement. Four is the principle of security. Balance the maximum use of resources of Chinese airspace and the according potential threats to Chinese national interests and social security, and establish a complete insurance system which functions as security defense and indemnificatory measure. Establish a unified legal system. Currently, the system of Chinese general aviation laws consists of national legislation, administrative laws and regulations and civil aviation regulations (CAR). Some problems exist in three components of the system, including too general content, unclear guarantee measures, incomplete implementation details, and lacking corresponding pertinence and flexibility required by general aviation regulations, stringency of operation management and standards, and uniformity of standards. A law and regulation system, centered on laws and consisting of administrative laws regulations, industrial regulations, implementation details, industrial policies and local laws and regulations, should be established. It is suggested to modify the Civil Aviation Law to make general aviation laws complete, enact the Regulations of General Aviation Development, and accelerate the establishment, modification and abolition of Chinese general aviation laws to intensify the coordination and uniformity of regulations.