Process Fault Probability Generation via ARIMA Time Series Modeling of Etch Tool Data
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- Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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- 2012.02a
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- pp.241-241
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- 2012
Semiconductor industry has been taking the advantage of improvements in process technology in order to maintain reduced device geometries and stringent performance specifications. This results in semiconductor manufacturing processes became hundreds in sequence, it is continuously expected to be increased. This may in turn reduce the yield. With a large amount of investment at stake, this motivates tighter process control and fault diagnosis. The continuous improvement in semiconductor industry demands advancements in process control and monitoring to the same degree. Any fault in the process must be detected and classified with a high degree of precision, and it is desired to be diagnosed if possible. The detected abnormality in the system is then classified to locate the source of the variation. The performance of a fault detection system is directly reflected in the yield. Therefore a highly capable fault detection system is always desirable. In this research, time series modeling of the data from an etch equipment has been investigated for the ultimate purpose of fault diagnosis. The tool data consisted of number of different parameters each being recorded at fixed time points. As the data had been collected for a number of runs, it was not synchronized due to variable delays and offsets in data acquisition system and networks. The data was then synchronized using a variant of Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm. The AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was then applied on the synchronized data. The ARIMA model combines both the Autoregressive model and the Moving Average model to relate the present value of the time series to its past values. As the new values of parameters are received from the equipment, the model uses them and the previous ones to provide predictions of one step ahead for each parameter. The statistical comparison of these predictions with the actual values, gives us the each parameter's probability of fault, at each time point and (once a run gets finished) for each run. This work will be extended by applying a suitable probability generating function and combining the probabilities of different parameters using Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST). DST provides a way to combine evidence that is available from different sources and gives a joint degree of belief in a hypothesis. This will give us a combined belief of fault in the process with a high precision.
This paper aims to identify the structural characteristics of Okawa Syumei(大川周明), Wakamiya Unosuke(若宮卯之助) and Okakura Tensin(岡倉天心). In fact, after Okawa Syumei studied the Principles of Wakamiya Unosuke and Okakura Tensin, he derived a conclusion and wrote a book named "yeolseongjeon". This book talks about the emperor dynasty. Based on this, the theory presented by Wakamiya Unosuke and Okakura Tensin described the characteristics of the East European culture. Okakura Tensin crossed the western part and discovered that western culture is only western culture and not a universal culture. Western culture has developed from its own experience. Wakamiya Unosuke translated a book by William Knox, The spirt of the orient. They have the same point of view, but they have a different culture and they must follow their own culture. Okakura Tensin insisted that culture is dynamic and it improves by adapting different cultures of different countries. Wakamiya appealed and he opposed Tensin's studies about culture. Wakamiya's definition of culture has not changed or is fixed from the past, which still exists in the modern times. Culture must be cultivated and it must be introduced to people who have forgotten their own culture. Despite such methodological differences, the commonality between Okakura and Wakamiya is that Western civilization is nothing more than a regional culture, as the West is not a universal civilization, but as a whole, it is a regional culture. Okawa Syumei learned the Okakura and Wakamiya's theory about culture and derived a conclusion. He stated that both opinions are correct as culture can be adapted as explained by Okakura. For example, Japanese people are now adapting and embracing the culture of Chinese people and Indian people. On the other hand, he also learned Wakamiya Unosuke's theory that culture does not change. Japanese have their own culture that was created in the past or it was developed by their ancestors; for example, the emperor dynasty. Okawa Syumei learned different cultures of different countries and Japanese people are adapting those cultures, and Wakamiya stated that the emperor dynasty must be instilled and it must be universal. Japanese emperors have different cultures, especially the Meiji emperor who is willing to accept different cultures of different countries. Finally, he claimed that the emperor dynasty created a new Japanese civilization and they are now embracing the new adapted culture.
The Chaos theory of complexity and Fractal theory which became a prominent figure as a new paradigm of natural science should be understood not as whole, and not into separate elements of nature. Fractal Dimensions are used to measure the complexity of objects. We now have ways of measuring things that were traditionally meaningless or impossible to measure. They are capable of describing many irregularly shaped objects including man and nature. It is compatible method of application to express complexity of nature in the dimension of non-fixed number by placing our point of view to lean toward non-linear, diverse, endless time, and complexity when we look at our world. Fractal Dimension allows us to measure the complexity of an object. Having a wide application of fractal geometry and Chaos theory to the art field is the territory of imagination where art and science encounter each other and yet there has not been much research in this area. The formative word has been extracted in this study by analyzing objective data to grasp formative principle and geometric characteristic of (this)distinct figures of Fractals. With this form of research, it is not so much about fractal in mathematics, but the concept of self-similarity and recursiveness, randomness, devices expressed from unspeakable space, and the formative similarity to graphic design are focused in this study. The fractal figures have characteristics in which the structure doesn't change the nature of things of the figure even in the process if repeated infinitely many times, the limit of the process produces is fractal. Almost all fractals are at least partially self-similar. This means that a part of the fractal is identical to the entire fractal itself even if there is an enlargement to infinitesimal. This means any part has all the information to recompose as whole. Based on this scene, the research is intended to examine possibility of analysis of fractals in geometric characteristics in plasticity toward forms in graphic design. As a result, a beautiful proportion appears in graphic design with calculation of mathematic. It should be an appropriate equation to express nature since the fractal dimension allows us to measure the complexity of an object and the Fractla geometry should pick out high addition in value of peculiarity and characteristics in the complex of art and science. At the stage where the necessity of accepting this demand and adapting ourselves to the change is gathering strength is very significant in this research.
The purpose of this paper is to explore the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of innovative small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs) listed on Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market of Korea Exchange. The innovative SMEs is defined as the firms with high level of R&D intensity which is measured by (R&D investment/total sales) ratio, according to Chauvin and Hirschey (1993). The R&D investment plays an important role as the innovative driver that can increase the future growth opportunity and profitability of the firms. Therefore, the R&D investment have large, positive, and consistent influences on the market value of the firm. In this point of view, we expect that the innovative SMEs can adjust dividend payment faster than the noninnovative SMEs, on the ground of their future growth opportunity and profitability. And also, we expect that the financial unconstrained firms can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, on the ground of their financing ability of investment funds through the market accessibility. Aivazian et al.(2006) exert that the financial unconstrained firms with the high accessibility to capital market can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms. We collect the sample firms among the total SMEs listed on Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market of Korea Exchange during the periods from January 1999 to December 2007 from the KIS Value Library database. The total number of firm-year observations of the total sample firms throughout the entire period is 5,544, the number of firm-year observations of the dividend firms is 2,919, and the number of firm-year observations of the non-dividend firms is 2,625. About 53%(or 2,919) of these total 5,544 observations involve firms that make a dividend payment. The dividend firms are divided into two groups according to the R&D intensity, such as the innovative SMEs with larger than median of R&D intensity and the noninnovative SMEs with smaller than median of R&D intensity. The number of firm-year observations of the innovative SMEs is 1,506, and the number of firm-year observations of the noninnovative SMEs is 1,413. Furthermore, the innovative SMEs are divided into two groups according to level of financial constraints, such as the financial unconstrained firms and the financial constrained firms. The number of firm-year observations of the former is 894, and the number of firm-year observations of the latter is 612. Although all available firm-year observations of the dividend firms are collected, deletions are made in the case of financial industries such as banks, securities company, insurance company, and other financial services company, because their capital structure and business style are widely different from the general manufacturing firms. The stock repurchase was involved in dividend payment because Grullon and Michaely (2002) examined the substitution hypothesis between dividends and stock repurchases. However, our data structure is an unbalanced panel data since there is no requirement that the firm-year observations data are all available for each firms during the entire periods from January 1999 to December 2007 from the KIS Value Library database. We firstly estimate the classic Lintner(1956) dividend adjustment model, where the decision to smooth dividend or to adopt a residual dividend policy depends on financial constraints measured by market accessibility. Lintner model indicates that firms maintain stable and long run target payout ratio, and that firms adjust partially the gap between current payout rato and target payout ratio each year. In the Lintner model, dependent variable is the current dividend per share(DPSt), and independent variables are the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) and the current earnings per share(EPSt). We hypothesized that firms adjust partially the gap between the current dividend per share(DPSt) and the target payout ratio(Ω) each year, when the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) deviate from the target payout ratio(Ω). We secondly estimate the expansion model that extend the Lintner model by including the determinants suggested by the major theories of dividend, namely, residual dividend theory, dividend signaling theory, agency theory, catering theory, and transactions cost theory. In the expansion model, dependent variable is the current dividend per share(DPSt), explanatory variables are the past dividend per share(DPSt-1) and the current earnings per share(EPSt), and control variables are the current capital expenditure ratio(CEAt), the current leverage ratio(LEVt), the current operating return on assets(ROAt), the current business risk(RISKt), the current trading volume turnover ratio(TURNt), and the current dividend premium(DPREMt). In these control variables, CEAt, LEVt, and ROAt are the determinants suggested by the residual dividend theory and the agency theory, ROAt and RISKt are the determinants suggested by the dividend signaling theory, TURNt is the determinant suggested by the transactions cost theory, and DPREMt is the determinant suggested by the catering theory. Furthermore, we thirdly estimate the Lintner model and the expansion model by using the panel data of the financial unconstrained firms and the financial constrained firms, that are divided into two groups according to level of financial constraints. We expect that the financial unconstrained firms can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, because the former can finance more easily the investment funds through the market accessibility than the latter. We analyzed descriptive statistics such as mean, standard deviation, and median to delete the outliers from the panel data, conducted one way analysis of variance to check up the industry-specfic effects, and conducted difference test of firms characteristic variables between innovative SMEs and noninnovative SMEs as well as difference test of firms characteristic variables between financial unconstrained firms and financial constrained firms. We also conducted the correlation analysis and the variance inflation factors analysis to detect any multicollinearity among the independent variables. Both of the correlation coefficients and the variance inflation factors are roughly low to the extent that may be ignored the multicollinearity among the independent variables. Furthermore, we estimate both of the Lintner model and the expansion model using the panel regression analysis. We firstly test the time-specific effects and the firm-specific effects may be involved in our panel data through the Lagrange multiplier test that was proposed by Breusch and Pagan(1980), and secondly conduct Hausman test to prove that fixed effect model is fitter with our panel data than the random effect model. The main results of this study can be summarized as follows. The determinants suggested by the major theories of dividend, namely, residual dividend theory, dividend signaling theory, agency theory, catering theory, and transactions cost theory explain significantly the dividend policy of the innovative SMEs. Lintner model indicates that firms maintain stable and long run target payout ratio, and that firms adjust partially the gap between the current payout ratio and the target payout ratio each year. In the core variables of Lintner model, the past dividend per share has more effects to dividend smoothing than the current earnings per share. These results suggest that the innovative SMEs maintain stable and long run dividend policy which sustains the past dividend per share level without corporate special reasons. The main results show that dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs is faster than that of the noninnovative SMEs. This means that the innovative SMEs with high level of R&D intensity can adjust dividend payment faster than the noninnovative SMEs, on the ground of their future growth opportunity and profitability. The other main results show that dividend adjustment speed of the financial unconstrained SMEs is faster than that of the financial constrained SMEs. This means that the financial unconstrained firms with high accessibility to capital market can adjust dividend payment faster than the financial constrained firms, on the ground of their financing ability of investment funds through the market accessibility. Futhermore, the other additional results show that dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs classified by the Small and Medium Business Administration is faster than that of the unclassified SMEs. They are linked with various financial policies and services such as credit guaranteed service, policy fund for SMEs, venture investment fund, insurance program, and so on. In conclusion, the past dividend per share and the current earnings per share suggested by the Lintner model explain mainly dividend adjustment speed of the innovative SMEs, and also the financial constraints explain partially. Therefore, if managers can properly understand of the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of innovative SMEs, they can maintain stable and long run dividend policy of the innovative SMEs through dividend smoothing. These are encouraging results for Korea government, that is, the Small and Medium Business Administration as it has implemented many policies to commit to the innovative SMEs. This paper may have a few limitations because it may be only early study about the relations between financial constraints and dividend smoothing of the innovative SMEs. Specifically, this paper may not adequately capture all of the subtle features of the innovative SMEs and the financial unconstrained SMEs. Therefore, we think that it is necessary to expand sample firms and control variables, and use more elaborate analysis methods in the future studies.
The words which appeared in my theoretical study and work are image transformation to digital painting, simulation, heterologie and transfiguration, etc. Firstly, let's look into 'digital era' or 'new media era'. Nowadays, the image world including painting within the rapid social and cultural change, which is called as digital era, is having the dramatic change. Together with the development of scientific technology, large number of events which was deemed to be impossible is happening as real in image world Moreover, these changes in image world is greatly influencing to our life. The word which compresses this change of image world and shows is 'digital'. Digit, which means fingers in Latin, indicates separately changing signal, and to be more narrow, it indicates the continual signal of '0' and ' 1' in computer. The opposite word is 'analogue'. As analogue is the word meaning 'infer' or 'similarity', it indicates the signal or form which continuously changes along the series of time when it is compared to digital. Instead of analogue, digital is embossed as a major ruler along the whole area of our current culture. In whole culture and art area, and in whole generalscience, digital is appearing as it has the modernism and importance. The prefix, 'digital', e.g. digital media, digital culture, digital design, digital philosophy, etc, is treated as the synonym of modernism and something new. This advent of digital results the innovative change to the image world, creates the new beauty experience which we could not experience before, and forecasts the formation of advanced art and expansion of creative area. Various intellectual activities using computer is developing the whole world with making the infrastructure. Computer in painting work immediately accomplishes the idea of painters, takes part in simulation work, contingency such as abrupt reversal, extraction, twisting, shaking, obscureness, overlapping, etc, and timing to stimulate the creativity of painters, and provides digital formative language which enables new visual experience to the audience. When the change of digital era, the image appeared in my work is shown in 'transfiguration' like drawing. The word, 'transfiguration' does not indicate the completed and fixed real substance but indicate endlessly moving and floating shape. Thus, this concept is opposite to the substantial consideration, so that various concepts which is able to replace this in accordance with the similar cases are also exist such as change, deterioration, mutation, deformity of appearance and morphing which is frequently used in computer as a technical word. These concepts are not clearly classified, and variably and complicatedly related. Transfiguration basically means the denial of "objectivity' and '(continual) stagnation' or deviation from those. This phenomenon is appeared through the all art schools of art ever since the realism is denied in the 19th century. It is called as 'deformation' in case of expressionism, futurism, cubism, etc, in the beginning of the century, which its former indication is mostly preserved within the process of structural deviation and which has the realistic limit which should be preserved. On the contrary, dramatic transfiguration which has been showing in the modern era through surrealism is different in the point that dramatic transfiguration tends to show the deterioration and deviation rather than the preservation of indicated object. From this point, transfiguration coming out from morphing using computer deteriorates and hides the reality and furthermore, it replaces the 'reality'. Moreover, transfiguration is closely approached to the world of fake or 'imaginary' simulation world of Baudrillard. According to Baudrillard, the image hides and deteriorates the reality, and furthermore, expresses 'not existing' to 'imaginary' under the name of transfiguration. Certain reality, that is, image which is absent from the reality is created and overflowed, so that it finally replaces the reality. This is simulation as it is said by Baudrillard. In turn, Georges Bataille discusses about the image which is produced by digital technology in terms of heterologie. Image of heterologie is the visual signal which is established with the media. Image of media is to have the continuous characteristics of produce, extinction, and transformation, and its clear boundary between images becomes meaningless. The meaning of composition, excess, violation, etc of digital image is explained to heterological study or heteologie suggested as important meaning of Georges Bataille who is a heretic philosopher. As the form and image of mutation shows the shape in accordance with mechanical production, heterologie is introduced as very low materialism (or bas materialisme), in this theory. Heterologie as low materialism which is gradually changing is developing as a different concept and analysis because of the change of time in the late 20s century beside high or low meaning. Including my image, all images non-standardizes and transforms the code. However, reappearance and non-standardization of this code does not seem to be simple. The problem of transformation caused by transfiguration which appears in my digital drawing painting, simulation, heterologie, etc, are the continual problems. Moreover, the subject such as existence of human being, distance from the real life, politics and social problems are being extended to actual research and various expressing work. Especially, individual image world is established by digital painting transfiguration technique, and its change and review start to have the durability. The consciousness of observers who look at the image is changing the subject. Together with theoretical research, researchers are to establish the first step to approach to various image change of digital era painting through transfiguration technique using our realistic and historical image.