• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.151-151
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• 2019

Because drought is a complex and stochastic phenomenon in nature, statistical approaches for drought assessment receive great attention for water resource planning and management. Generally drought characteristics such as severity, duration and intensity are modelled separately. This study aims to develop a relationship between drought characteristics using a bivariate copula model. To achieve the objective, we calculated the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using rainfall data at 6 rain gauge stations for the period of 1961-1999 in Jehlum River Basin, Pakistan, and investigated the drought characteristics. Since there is a significant correlation between drought severity and duration, they are usually modeled using different marginal distributions and joint distribution function. Using exponential distribution for drought severity and log-logistic distribution for drought duration, the Galambos copula was recognized as best copula to model joint distribution of drought severity and duration based on the KS-statistic. Various return periods of drought were calculated to identify time interval of repeated drought events. The result of this study can provide useful information for effective water resource management and shows superiority against univariate drought analysis.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.19-37
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• 2013

The optimum design of base isolation system considering model parameter uncertainty is usually performed by using the unconditional response of structure obtained by the total probability theory, as the performance index. Though, the probabilistic approach is powerful, it cannot be applied when the maximum possible ranges of variations are known and can be only modelled as uncertain but bounded type. In such cases, the interval analysis method is a viable alternative. The present study focuses on the bounded optimization of base isolation system to mitigate the seismic vibration effect of structures characterized by bounded type system parameters. With this intention in view, the conditional stochastic response quantities are obtained in random vibration framework using the state space formulation. Subsequently, with the aid of matrix perturbation theory using first order Taylor series expansion of dynamic response function and its interval extension, the vibration control problem is transformed to appropriate deterministic optimization problems correspond to a lower bound and upper bound optimum solutions. A lead rubber bearing isolating a multi-storeyed building frame is considered for numerical study to elucidate the proposed bounded optimization procedure and the optimum performance of the isolation system.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.28 no.12
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• pp.1372-1378
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• 2011

The smart air condition system is superior to conventional air condition system in the aspect of control accuracy, environmental preservation and it is foundation for intelligent vehicle such as electric vehicle, fuel cell vehicle. In this paper, failure analyses of smart air condition system will be performed and then sensor fusion technique will be proposed for fail safety of smart air condition system. A sensor fusion logic of air condition system by using CO sensor, $CO_2$ sensor and VOC, $NO_x$ sensor will be developed and simulated by fault injection simulation. The fusion technology of smart air condition system is generated in an experiment and a performance analysis is conducted with fusion algorithms. The proposed algorithm adds the error characteristic of each sensor as a conditional probability value, and ensures greater accuracy by performing the track fusion with the sensors with the most reliable performance.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.53-58
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• 2002

This paper presents a adjustment synthetic control chart that is an integration of the Shewhart X chart and the conforming run length(CRL) chart. The application of the adjustment synthetic control chart my therefore substantially enhance the effectiveness process control for manufacturing. In the synthetic control chart, denotes the average number of the X sample required to detect a process shift. The synthetic control chart outperforms the EWM chart and the X chart when σ is greater than 0.75σ. And the X-CRL charts suggested above evaluate using the conditional probability.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.595-604
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• 2013

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors for pediatric inpatients falls. Methods: The study was a matched case-control design. The participants were 279 patients under the age of 6 who were admitted between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2009. Through chart reviews, 93 pediatric patients who fell and 186 ones who did not fall were paired by gender, age, diagnosis, and length of stay. Five experts evaluated the 38 fall risk factors selected by the researchers. Results: In a general hospital, pediatric patients with secondary diagnosis, tests that need the patient to be moved, intravenous lines, hyperactivity, anxiolytics, sedatives and hypnotics, and general anesthetics showed significance for falls on adjusted-odds ratios. Conditional logistic regression analysis was performed to elucidate the factors that influence pediatric inpatient falls. The probability of falls increased with hyperactivity and general weakness. Patients who didn't have tests that required them to be moved and intravenous line had a higher risk of falls. Conclusion: These findings provide information that is relevant in developing fall risk assessment tools and prevention programs for pediatric inpatient falls.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.41 no.5
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• pp.287-296
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• 2017

The Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) is a structured and systematic methodology developed by the IMO, aimed at assessing the risk of vessels and recommending the method to control intolerable risks, thereby enhancing maritime safety, including protection of life, health, the marine environment and property, by using risk analysis and cost-benefit assessment. While the FSA has mostly been applied to merchant vessels, it has rarely been applied to a DP vessel, which is one of the special purpose vessels in the offshore industry. Furthermore, most of the FSA has been conducted so far by using the Fault Tree Analysis tool, even though there are many other risk analysis tools. This study carried out the FSA for safe operation of DP vessels by using the Bayesian network, under which conditional probability was examined. This study determined the frequency and severity of DP LOP incidents reported to the IMCA from 2001 to 2010, and obtained the Risk Index by applying the Bayesian network. Then, the Risk Control Options (RCOs) were identified through an expert brainstorming and DP vessel simulations. This study recommends duplication of PRS, regardless of the DP class and PRS type and DP system specific training. Finally, this study verified that the Bayesian network and DP simulator can also serve as an effective tool for FSA implementation.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.45-53
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• 2019

Thermal-hydraulic passive safety systems (PSSs) are incorporated into many advanced reactor designs on the bases of simplicity, economics and inherent safety nature. Several factors among which are the critical parameters (CPs) that influence failure and reliability of thermal-hydraulic (t-h) passive systems are now being explored. For simplicity, it is assumed in most reliability analyses that the CPs are independent whereas in practice this assumption is not always valid. There is need to critically examine the dependency influence of the CPs on reliability of the t-h passive systems at design stage and in operation to guarantee safety/better performance. In this paper, two multivariate analysis methods (covariance and conditional subjective probability density function) were presented and applied to a simple PSS. The methods followed a generalized procedure for evaluating t-h reliability based on dependency consideration. A passively water-cooled steam generator was used to demonstrate the dependency of the identified key CPs using the methods. The results obtained from the methods are in agreement and justified the need to consider the dependency of CPs in t-h reliability. For dependable t-h reliability, it is advisable to adopt all possible CPs and apply suitable multivariate method in dependency consideration of CPs among other factors.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.110-120
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• 2023

Following the Fukushima accident, portable equipment employed as accident mitigating systems have been installed and operated to reduce core damage and large early release frequencies. In addition, the establishment of an accident management strategy has gained importance. This study investigated the current status of portable equipment including the international portable equipment FLEX (diverse and flexible coping strategies), and domestic portable equipment multi-barrier accident coping strategy (MACST). Research on optimal utilization of MACST remains insufficient. As a preliminary study for establishing an optimal strategy, sensitivity studies were conducted to facilitate the priority of use on portable equipment, number of portable equipment, and dependency of operator actions based on a multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment model. The results revealed the conditions that reduced the multi-unit and site conditional core damage probabilities, indicating the optimal strategy of MACST. The results of this study can be used as a reference for establishing an optimal strategy that utilizes domestic safety equipment in the future.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.56 no.1
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• pp.59-66
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• 2023

Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of body weight status and sleep duration on the discrete-time hazard of menarche in Korean schoolgirls using multiple-point prospective panel data. Methods: The study included 914 girls in the 2010 Korean Children and Youth Panel Study who were in the elementary first-grader panel from 2010 until 2016. We used a Gompertz regression model to estimate the effects of weight status based on age-specific and sex-specific body mass index (BMI) percentile and sleep duration on an early schoolchild's conditional probability of menarche during a given time interval using general health condition and annual household income as covariates. Results: Gompertz regression of time to menarche data collected from the Korean Children and Youth Panel Study 2010 suggested that being overweight or sleeping less than the recommended duration was related to an increased hazard of menarche compared to being average weight and sleeping 9 hours to 11 hours, by 1.63 times and 1.38 times, respectively, while other covariates were fixed. In contrast, being underweight was associated with a 66% lower discrete-time hazard of menarche. Conclusions: Weight status based on BMI percentiles and sleep duration in the early school years affect the hazard of menarche.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.12
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• pp.4601-4619
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• 2022

The classical Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) does not include any time dependence explicitly. However, the success criteria (SC) could evolve during the cycle for some initiating events. In that sense, there is a type of sequence in which this time-dependency is quite important, the family of Anticipated Transient without Scram (ATWS) sequences in Pressurized Water Reactors. Therefore, a new risk-informed approach is proposed in this paper, which makes it possible to obtain the time-dependent SC evolution of the safety functions affected by the Moderator Temperature Coefficient (MTC) value. Then, the evolution of the ATWS conditional core damage probability (CCDP) could be obtained using a PSA model. To quantify the CCDP, the average values of the time-dependent failure probabilities must be computed. Finally, the comparison between the CCDP obtained through the application of the classical PSA approach and the new one makes it possible to quantify the impact of time-dependence on the SC of the headers that this new risk-informed ATWS approach can provide.