• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.12
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• pp.1011-1027
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• 2010

In hydrologic modeling, prediction uncertainty generally stems from various uncertainty sources associated with model structure, data, and parameters, etc. This study aims to assess the parameter uncertainty effect on hydrologic prediction results. For this objective, a distributed rainfall-sediment yield-runoff model, which consists of rainfall-runoff module for simulation of surface and subsurface flows and sediment yield module based on unit stream power theory, was applied to the mesoscale mountainous area (Cheoncheon catchment; 289.9 $km^2$). For parameter uncertainty evaluation, the model was calibrated by a multi-objective optimization algorithm (MOSCEM) with two different objective functions (RMSE and HMLE) and Pareto optimal solutions of each case were then estimated. In Case I, the rainfall-runoff module was calibrated to investigate the effect of parameter uncertainty on hydrograph reproduction whereas in Case II, sediment yield module was calibrated to show the propagation of parameter uncertainty into sedigraph estimation. Additionally, in Case III, all parameters of both modules were simultaneously calibrated in order to take account of prediction uncertainty in rainfall-sediment yield-runoff modeling. The results showed that hydrograph prediction uncertainty of Case I was observed over the low-flow periods while the sedigraph of high-flow periods was sensitive to uncertainty of the sediment yield module parameters in Case II. In Case III, prediction uncertainty ranges of both hydrograph and sedigraph were larger than the other cases. Furthermore, prediction uncertainty in terms of spatial distribution of erosion and deposition drastically varied with the applied model parameters for all cases.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.47-55
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• 2021

The objective of this study was to access the effect of climate and soil factors on alfalfa dry matter yield (DMY) by the contribution through constructing the yield prediction model in a general linear model considering climate and soil physical variables. The processes of constructing the yield prediction model for alfalfa was performed in sequence of data collection of alfalfa yield, meteorological and soil, preparation, statistical analysis, and model construction. The alfalfa yield prediction model used a multiple regression analysis to select the climate variables which are quantitative data and a general linear model considering the selected climate variables and soil physical variables which are qualitative data. As a result, the growth degree days(GDD) and growing days(GD), and the clay content(CC) were selected as the climate and soil physical variables that affect alfalfa DMY, respectively. The contributions of climate and soil factors affecting alfalfa DMY were 32% (GDD, 21%, GD 11%) and 63%, respectively. Therefore, this study indicates that the soil factor more contributes to alfalfa DMY than climate factor. However, for examming the correct contribution, the factors such as other climate and soil factors, and the cultivation technology factors which were not treated in this study should be considered as a factor in the model for future study.

• Transactions of Materials Processing
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.189-194
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• 2016

In the current study, spring-back of DP980 steel sheet was numerically evaluated for U-bending using a yield function with a hardening model. For spring-back prediction, two types of yield functions - Hill'48 and Yld2000-2d - were considered. Additionally, isotropic hardening and the Yoshida-Uemori model were used to investigate the spring-back behavior. The parameters for each model were obtained from uniaxial tension, uniaxial tension-compression, uniaxial tension-unloading and hydraulic bulging tests. The numerical simulations were performed using the commercial software, PAM-STAMP 2G. The results were compared with experimental data from a U-bending process.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.16 no.12
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• pp.1319-1324
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• 2007

A tank model in conjunction with Kalman filter is developed for prediction of sediment yield from an upland watershed in Northwestern Mississippi. The state vector of the system model represents the parameters of the tank model. The initial values of the state vector were estimated by trial and error. The sediment yield of each tank is computed by multiplying the total sediment yield by the sediment yield coefficient. The sediment concentration of the first tank is computed from its storage and the sediment concentration distribution(SCD); the sediment concentration of the next lower tank is obtained by its storage and the sediment infiltration of the upper tank; and so on. The sediment yield computed by the tank model using Kalman filter was in good agreement with the observed sediment yield and was more accurate than the sediment yield computed by the tank model.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.207-209
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• 2003

Quantifying crop production is one of the most important applications of remote sensing in which the temporal and up-to-date data can play very important role in avoiding any immediate insufficiency in agricultural production. A combination of climatic data and biophysical parameters derived from Landsat7 ETM+ was used to develop a mathematical model for wheat yield forecast in different geographically wide Wheat growing districts in Egypt. Leaf Area Index (LAI) and fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) with temperature were used in the modeling. The model includes three sub-models representing the correlation between the reported yield and each individual variable. Simulation results using district statistics showed high accuracy of the derived correlations to estimate wheat production with a percentage standard error (%S.E.) of 1.5% in El- Qualyobia district and average (%S.E.) of 7% for the whole wheat areas.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.569-579
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• 2021

Purpose: The purpose of this study is the time series analysis for predicting the yield of crops applicable to each farm using environmental variables measured by smart farms cultivating tomato. In addition, it is intended to confirm the influence of environmental variables using a deep learning model that can be explained to some extent. Methods: A time series analysis was performed to predict production using environmental variables measured at 75 smart farms cultivating tomato in two periods. An LSTM-based encoder-decoder model was used for cases of several farms with similar length. In particular, Dual Attention Mechanism was applied to use environmental variables as exogenous variables and to confirm their influence. Results: As a result of the analysis, Dual Attention LSTM with a window size of 12 weeks showed the best predictive power. It was verified that the environmental variables has a similar effect on prediction through wieghtss extracted from the prediction model, and it was also verified that the previous time point has a greater effect than the time point close to the prediction point. Conclusion: It is expected that it will be possible to attempt various crops as a model that can be explained by supplementing the shortcomings of general deep learning model.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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• v.30 no.6 s.113
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• pp.360-365
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• 2005

Precision agriculture attempts to improve cropping efficiency by variable application of crop treatments such as fertilizers and pesticides, within field on a point-by-point basis. Therefore, a more complete understanding of the relationships between yield and soil properties is of critical importance in precision agriculture. In this study, the functional relationships between measured soil properties and rice yield were investigated. A supervised back-propagation neural network model was employed to relate soil chemical properties and rice yields on a point-by point basis, within individual site-years. As a results, a positive correlation was found between practical yields and predicted yields in 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002 are 0.916, 0.879, 0.800 and 0.789, respectively. The results showed that significant overfitting for yields with only the soil chemical properties occurred so that more of environmental factors, such as climatological data, variety, cultivation method etc., would be required to predict the yield more accurately.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.80-91
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• 2017

The objective of this study was to select a model showing high-levels of interpretability which is high in R-squared value in terms of predicting the yield in the mixed pasture using the factors of fertilization, seeding rate and years after pasture establishment in steps, as well as the climate as a basic factor. The processes of constructing the yield prediction model for the mixed pasture were performed in the sequence of data collection (forage and climatic data), preparation, analysis, and model construction. Through this process, six models were constructed after considering climatic variables, fertilization management, seeding rates, and periods after pasture establishment years in steps, thereafter the optimum model was selected through considering the coincidence of the models to the forage production theories. As a result, Model VI (R squared = 53.8%) including climatic variables, fertilization amount, seeding rates, and periods after pasture establishment was considered as the optimum yield prediction model for mixed pastures in South Korea. The interpretability of independent variables in the model were decreased in the sequence of climatic variables(24.5%), fertilization amount(17.8%), seeding rates(10.7%), and periods after pasture establishment(0.8%). However, it is necessary to investigate the reasons of positive correlation between dry matter yield and days of summer depression (DSD) by considering cultivated locations and using other cumulative temperature related variables instead of DSD. Meanwhile the another research about the optimum levels of fertilization amounts and seeding rates is required using the quadratic term due to the certain value-centered distribution of these two variables.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2001.06a
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• pp.109-112
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• 2001

농작물의 생육 및 작황은 내적으로는 품종 자체의 고유 특성과 외적으로는 재배기술, 토양환경, 기상환경 등에 크게 영향을 받는다. 이중 온도, 일조시수 등의 기상조건은 생육과 수량 형성에 직접적인 영향을 미치게 되며 작물의 고유특성인 출수기, 수량구성요소 등도 기상환경에 따라 변이를 나타낸다.(중략)

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2001.06a
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• pp.113-116
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• 2001

90년대 이후 다양한 첨단전산기술들이 작물모형분야에도 이용되기 시작하였는데 농업생태계 평가를 위한 국지단위 모의모형의 활용, 인공위성 등을 이용한 원격계측정보의 활용, GIS기술 등은 농업분야에서 널리 활용되고 있는 첨단 신기술의 대표적인 사례가 되고 있다. 이러한 신기술들은 농업기상정보를 생산하는 데에 이용될 뿐만 아니라 가장 중요한 환경요소로서 농업기상정보를 필요로 한다(Munakata, 1976).(중략)