• 한국측량학회지
• /
• 제40권5호
• /
• pp.449-456
• /
• 2022

본 연구는 GIS를 통해 토양정보를 수집하고 가공하여 농산물 생산량을 예측하는 모델을 제안한다. 농산물 생산량 예측 딥러닝 알고리즘은 공개된 CNN-RNN 농산물 생산량 예측 모델 구조를 변경하여 국내 농산물 자료 환경에 적합하도록 새롭게 구축하였다. 기존모델은 두 가지 특징을 가지고 있는데 첫 번째는 농산물의 생산량을 해당 필지값이 아닌 당해 평균값으로 대체한다는 것이고 두 번째는 예측하는 연도의 데이터까지 학습한다는 것이다. 새로운 모델은 해당 필지의 값을 그대로 사용하여 데이터의 정확성을 확보하고 예측하고자 하는 연도 이전의 데이터만 가지고 학습할 수 있도록 네트워크 구조를 개선하였다. 제안한 CNN-RNN 모델은 1980년부터 2020년까지의 기상정보, 토양정보, 토양적성도, 생산량 데이터를 학습하여 김장용 가을배추의 지역별 단위면적당 생산량을 예측한다. 2018년부터 2021년까지 4개 연도별 자료에 대하여 계산하고 생산량을 예측한 결과, 테스트 데이터셋에 대한 오차백분율이 약 10% 내외로 실제값과 비교하여 정확도 높은 생산량 예측이 가능했고, 특히 전체 생산량 비중이 큰 지역에서의 생산량은 비교적 근접하게 예측하는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 제안모델과 기존모델은 모두 학습자료 연도 수가 증가할수록 점점 오차가 작아지므로 학습데이터가 많아질수록 범용 성능은 향상되는 결과를 나타낸다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
• /
• 제32권2호
• /
• pp.132-139
• /
• 2009

Yield is a very important measure that can expresses simply for productivity and performance of company. So, yield is used widely in many industries nowadays. With the development of the information technology and online based real-time process monitoring technology, many industries operate the production lines that are developed into automation system. In these production lines, the product structures are very complexity and variety. So, there are many multi-variate processes that need to be monitored with many quality characteristics and associated process variables at the same time. These situations have made it possible to obtain super-large manufacturing process data sets. However, there are many difficulties with finding the cause of process variation or useful information in the high capacity database. In order to solve this problem, neural networks technique is a favorite technique that predicts the yield of process for process control. This paper uses a neural networks technique for improvement and maintenance of yield in manufacturing process. The purpose of this paper is to model the prediction of a sub process that has much effect to improve yields in total manufacturing process and the prediction of adjustment values of this sub process. These informations feedback into the process and the process is adjusted. Also, we show that the proposed model is useful to the manufacturing process through the case study.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
• /
• 제33권5_2호
• /
• pp.647-659
• /
• 2017

마늘과 양파 재배는 작물의 생육 조건과 주산지 기상에 영향을 받는다. 따라서 단수를 예측할 때에는 주산지의 작황과 기상을 고려할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 2006년에서 2015년까지의 작물의 생육 조건을 반영한 MODIS NDVI와 7개 주산지의 기상요인을 다중 회귀 모형에 적용하여 주산지별 마늘 및 양파의 단수예측 모형을 개발하였다. 다중 회귀 모형에서 독립변수 채택은 단계적 선택방법을 이용하였다. 그 결과, 마늘과 양파 단수예측 모형은 2월의 MODIS NDVI가 중요한 독립변수로 채택되었다. 기상요인은 마늘의 경우, 평균온도(3월), 강우량(11월, 3월), 상대습도(4월), 최저온도(6월)가 채택되었으며, 양파는 강우량(11월), 일조시간(1월), 상대습도(4월), 최저온도(6월)가 독립변수로 채택되었다. MODIS NDVI와 기상요인을 이용한 단수예측 모형은 주산지별 마늘, 양파 평균 단수의 84.4%, 75.9% 설명력을 나타내었으며, RMSE는 각각 42.57 kg/10a, 340.29 kg/10a로 나타났다. 따라서 본 모형은 MODIS NDVI와 기상요인에 따른 마늘과 양파의 단수 변화특성을 잘 반영하고 있는 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국산림과학회지
• /
• 제112권2호
• /
• pp.209-216
• /
• 2023

본 연구는 국가산림자원조사 자료를 활용하여 피나무림의 임지생산력지수와 수확예측모델을 도출하기 위하여 수행되었다. 피나무의 임지생산력을 알 수 있는 지위지수는 Schumacher 모델로서 파라미터를 도출하였으며, 이 결과로서 지위지수분류곡선도를 작성하였다. 국내 피나무림 지위지수 분포는 8~16 범위에 있는 것으로 나타났다. 임령을 설명변수로하여 흉고직경과 수고를 추정하는 생장모델은 Chapman-Richards 모델과 Weibull 모델을 이용하여 각각 도출하였다. 추정 모델의 적합도는 각각 0.32, 0.11로 나타나 일반적으로 볼 때 낮은 값이었으나, 추정식의 잔차가 "0"을 중심으로 고르게 분포하여 식을 적용하는데는 문제가 없을 것으로 판단되었다. 피나무림의 임분축적 변화에는 흉고단면적과 지위지수가 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이 두 가지 인자를 적용시켜 피나무림의 수확모델을 도출하였으며, 모델에 대한 설명력은 약 94%로 높게 나타났다. 그리고 이들 수확모델의 잔차에 대한 정규성 및 자기상관 등에 대해서도 검증한 결과 문제가 없는 것으로 나타났다. 최종적으로 피나무림의 생장모델과 수확모델을 이용하여 임시로 활용할 수 있는 임분수확표를 제작하였으며, 이 자료에 의하면 피나무림이 70년생이 될 때, ha당 축적은 약 208 m³ 이 될 것으로 예측되었다. 본 연구의 결과가 밀원자원 및 목재로서 활용가치가 높은 피나무림에 대한 경영의사결정에 도움이 되기를 기대한다.

• 한국농공학회지
• /
• 제45권7호
• /
• pp.83-93
• /
• 2003

This research compared the observed and model predicted results that include; runoff, sediment yield, and nutrient losses from a 2.71 ha cattle grazing pasture field in North Alabama. Application of water quality computer simulation models can inexpensively and quickly assess the impact of pasture management practices on water quality. AGNPS single storm based model was applied to the three pasture species; Bermudagrass, fescue, and Ryegrass. While comparing model predicted results with observed data, it showed that model can reasonably predict the runoff, sediment yield and nutrient losses from the watershed. Over-prediction and under-prediction by the model occurred during very high and low rainfall events, respectively. The study concluded that AGNPS model can be reasonably applied to assess the impacts of pasture management practices and chicken litter application on water quality.

• Animal Bioscience
• /
• 제34권4호
• /
• pp.770-782
• /
• 2021

Objective: The aim of the present study was to compare the effectiveness of three approaches (the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average [SARIMA] model, the nonlinear autoregressive exogenous [NARX] artificial neural networks and Wood's model) to the prediction of milk yield during lactation. Methods: The dataset comprised monthly test-day records from 965 Polish Holstein-Friesian Black-and-White primiparous cows. The milk yields from cows in their first lactation (from 5 to 305 days in milk) were used. Each lactation was divided into ten lactation stages of approximately 30 days. Two age groups and four calving seasons were distinguished. The records collected between 2009 and 2015 were used for model fitting and those from 2016 for the verification of predictive performance. Results: No significant differences between the predicted and the real values were found. The predictions generated by SARIMA were slightly more accurate, although they did not differ significantly from those produced by the NARX and Wood's models. SARIMA had a slightly better performance, especially in the initial periods, whereas the NARX and Wood's models in the later ones. Conclusion: The use of SARIMA was more time-consuming than that of NARX and Wood's model. The application of the SARIMA, NARX and Wood's models (after their implementation in a user-friendly software) may allow farmers to estimate milk yield of cows that begin production for the first time.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
• /
• 제21권1호
• /
• pp.82-89
• /
• 2023

Various machine-learning models may yield high predictive power for massive time series for time series prediction. However, these models are prone to instability in terms of computational cost because of the high dimensionality of the feature space and nonoptimized hyperparameter settings. Considering the potential risk that model training with a high-dimensional feature set can be time-consuming, we evaluate a feature-importance-based feature selection method to derive a tradeoff between predictive power and computational cost for time series prediction. We used two machine learning techniques for performance evaluation to generate prediction models from a retail sales dataset. First, we ranked the features using impurity- and Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) -based feature importance measures in the prediction models. Then, the recursive feature elimination method was applied to eliminate unimportant features sequentially. Consequently, we obtained a subset of features that could lead to reduced model training time while preserving acceptable model performance.

• Journal of Biosystems Engineering
• /
• 제23권3호
• /
• pp.253-258
• /
• 1998

The part I was for developing regression models to predict the moisture content, protein content and viscosity of brown and milled rice using Near Infrared(NIR) Reflectance analyzer. The purpose of this study(part II) is to measure fundamental data required for the prediction of rice quality, and to develop regression models to predict the protein content of brown and milled rice, brown rice yield from undried paddy powder by using Near Infrared(NIR) Reflectance analyzer. The results of this study were summarized as follows : The predicted values of protein contents obtained from the undried paddy powder were well correlated to the measured values from brown and milled rice. The predicted yields of brown rice from undried paddy powder were not well correlated to the lab measured values from dried paddy. Continuous study in wavelength selection and of constituent relationship is necessary for practical application.

• 한국농업기계학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국농업기계학회 1998년도 하계 학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.171-177
• /
• 1998

The part Ⅰ was for developing regression models to predict the moisture content, protein content and viscosity of brown and milled rice using Near Unfrared (NIR) Reflectance analyzer. The purpose of this study(part Ⅱ) is to measure fundamental data required for the prediction of rice quality , and to develop regression models to predict the protein content of brown and milled rice, brown rice yield from undreid paddy powder by using Near Infrared (NIR) Reflectance analyzer. The results of this study were summarized as follows . The predicted values of protein contents obtained from the undried paddy powder were will correlated to the measured values from brown and milled rice. The predicted yields of brown rice from undried paddy powder were not well correlated to be lab measured values from dried paddy. Continuous study in wavelength selection and of constituent relationship is necessary for practical application.

• 한국정밀공학회지
• /
• 제16권11호
• /
• pp.98-105
• /
• 1999

As the IC(Integrated Circuit) has been densified and complicated, it is required to thorough process control to improve yield. Experts, for this purpose, focused on the process analysis automation, which is came from the strict data management in semiconductor manufacturing. In this paper, we presents the process analysis system that can analyze causes, for a output after processes. Also, the plasma etching process that highly affects yield among semiconductor process is modeled to predict a output before the process. To approach this problem, we use adaptively trained neural networks that exhibit superior accuracy over statistical techniques. And in comparison with methods in other paper, a method that history of trend for input data is considered is shown to offer advantage in both learning and prediction capability. This research regards CD(Critical Dimension) that is considerable in high integrated circuit as output variable of the prediction model.