• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.83-88
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• 2023

The increasing global average temperature and the emergence of various abnormal climate phenomena are already being experienced in reality. The problems arising from climate change are expanding and becoming catastrophic, despite the efforts of various organizations to prevent them. In order to avoid climate issues from becoming black elephants, we conducted interviews with emergency planning officer from various institutions to identify potential X-events caused by climate change. The results of analyzing the anticipated X-events by these emergency planning officer revealed a chain of ripple effects associated with their occurrence. This implies that once an X-event happens, its influence is broader and more significant. Through this study, we aim to share the understanding of the ripple effects of climate X-events with many people, raising awareness of the severity of climate issues. We hope that this will serve as a starting point for more institutions, individuals, and nations to make efforts in resolving climate problems, turning X-events into opportunities rather than crises.

• 천문학회지
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• 제37권4호
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• pp.171-177
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• 2004

X-ray plasma ejections often occurred around the impulsive phases of solar flares and have been well observed by the SXT aboard Yohkoh. Though the X-ray plasma ejections show various morphological shapes, there has been no attempt at classifying the morphological groups for a large sample of the X-ray plasma ejections. In this study, we have classified 137 X-ray plasma ejections according to their shape for the first time. Our classification criteria are as follows: (1) a loop type shows ejecting plasma with the shape of loops, (2) a spray type has a continuous stream of plasma without showing any typical shape, (3) a jet type shows collimated motions of plasma, (4) a confined ejection shows limited motions of plasma near a flaring site. As a result, we classified the flare-associated X-ray plasma ejections into five groups as follows: loop-type (60 events), spray-type (40 events), jet-type (11 events), confined ejection (18 events), and others (8 events). As an illustration, we presented time sequence images of several typical events to discuss their morphological characteristics, speed, CME association, and magnetic field configuration. We found that the jet-type events tend to have higher speeds and better association with CMEs than those of the loop-type events. It is also found that the CME association (11/11) of the jet-type events is much higher than that (5/18) of the confined ejections. These facts imply that the physical characteristics of the X-ray plasma ejections are closely associated with magnetic field configurations near the reconnection regions.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제11권4호
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• pp.310-316
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• 2023

This study aims to predict uncertain future scenarios that may unfold in South Korea in the near future, utilizing the theory of extreme events(X-events). A group of 32 experts, consisting of government emergency planning officers, was selected as the focus group to achieve this objective. Using the Focus Group Interview (FGI) technique, opinions were gathered from this focus group regarding potential X-events that may occur within the advanced science and technology domains over the next 10 years. The analysis of these opinions revealed that government emergency planning officers regarded the "Obsolescence of current technology and systems," particularly in the context of cyber network paralysis as the most plausible X-event within science and technology. They also put forth challenging and intricate opinions, including the emergence of new weapon systems and ethical concerns associated with artificial intelligence (AI). Given that X-events are more likely to emerge in unanticipated areas rather than those that are widely predicted, the results obtained from this study carry significant importance. However, it's important to note that this study is grounded in a limited group of experts, highlighting the necessity for subsequent research involving a more extensive group of experts. This research seeks to stimulate studies on extreme events at a national level and contribute to the preparation for future X-event predictions and strategies for addressing them.

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
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• 한국우주과학회 2010년도 한국우주과학회보 제19권1호
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• pp.38.2-38.2
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• 2010

We have examined the occurrence probability of solar proton events (SPEs) and their peak fluxes depending three flare parameters (X-ray peak flux, longitude, and impulsive time). For this we used NOAA SPEs from 1976 to 2006, and their associated X-ray flare data. As a result, we selected 166 proton events that were associated with major flares; 85 events associated with X-class flares and 81 events associated with M-class flares. Especially the occurrence probability strongly depends on these three parameters. In addition, the relationship between X-ray flare peak flux and proton peak flux as well as its correlation coefficient are strongly dependent on longitude and impulsive time. Among NOAA SPEs from 1997 to 2006, most of the events are related to both flares and CMEs but a few fraction of events (5/93) are only related with CMEs. We carefully identified the sources of these events using LASCO CME catalog and SOHO MDI data. Specifically, we examined the directions of CMEs related with the events and the history of active regions. As a result, we were able to determine active regions which are likely to produce SPEs without ambiguity as well as their longitudes at the time of SPEs by considering solar rotation rate. From this study, we found that the longitudes of five active regions are all between $90^{\circ}W$ and $120^{\circ}W$. When the flare peak time is assume to be the CME event time, we confirmed that the dependence of their rise times (proton peak time - flare peak time) on longitude are consistent with the previous empirical formula. These results imply that five events should be also associated with flares which were not observed because they occurred from back-side. Now we are examining the occurrence probability of SPEs depending on CME parameters. Finally, we will discuss the future prospects on the development of an empirical SPE forecast model based on the information of flares and CMEs.

• 문화기술의 융합
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• 제9권5호
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• pp.391-395
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• 2023

우리 앞에는 상상할 수 없이 많은 가능성이 놓여있다. 이로 인해, 미래예측이 어렵지만 예측 자체가 무의미한것은 아니다. 다양한 가능성들을 예측함으로써 우발상황에 대처할 수 있는 유연성을 가질 수 있기 때문이다. 본 연구는 한국의 인구 분야에 대한 극단적 사건(X-events)을 탐색하기 위해 진행되었다. 이를 위해, 정부 및 공공 부문의 비상계획관 32명을 대상으로 심층 인터뷰를 실시했고, 이를 토대로 인구 감소, 고령화 등의 인구 문제가 경제, 국방등의 다양한 분야에 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 유의미한 연구결과를 도출했다. 본 연구를 계기로 우리 사회에 일어날 수 있는 극단적 사건에 대한 논의와 토의가 더욱 활성화되길 기대한다.

• 한국우주과학회:학술대회논문집(한국우주과학회보)
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• 한국우주과학회 2009년도 한국우주과학회보 제18권2호
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• pp.37.2-37.2
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• 2009

In this study, we present a new empirical forecasting method of solar proton events based on flare parameters. For this we used NOAA solar energetic particle (SEP) events from 1976 to 2006 and their associated X-ray flare data. As a result, we found that about only 3.5% (1.9% for M-class and 21.3% for X-class) of the flares are associated with the proton events. It is also found that this fraction strongly depends on longitude; for example, the fraction for $30W^{\circ}$ < L < $90W^{\circ}$ is about three times larger than that for $30^{\circ}E$ < L < $90^{\circ}E$. The occurrence probability of solar proton events for flares with long duration (> 0.3 hours) is about 2 (X-class flare) to 7 (M-class flare) times larger than that for flares with short duration (< 0.3 hours). The relationship between X-ray flare peak flux and proton peak flux as well as its correlation coefficient are strongly dependent on longitude. Using these results for prediction of proton flux, we divided the data into 6 subgroups depending on two parameters: (1) 3 longitude ranges (east, center, and west) and (2) flare impulsive times (long and short). For each subgroup, we make a linear regression between the X-ray flare peak flux and the corresponding proton peak flux. The result shows that the proton flux in the eastern region is much better correlated with the X-ray flux than that in the western region.

• 대한수학회논문집
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.305-313
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• 2007

Let $A_1,\;A_2,\;\ldots,\;A_m$ and $B_1,\;B_2,\;\ldots,\;B_n$ be two sequences of events on the same probability space. Let $X=X_m(A)\;and\;Y=Y_n(B)$, respectively, denote the numbers of those $A_i's\;and\;B_j's$ which occur. We establish new bivariate Bonferroni-type inequalities using consecutive events and deduce a known result.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.191-195
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• 2023

An X-event is an event that is difficult to predict and unlikely to occur, but if it occurs, it has a very large ripple effect, such as loss of life, property, territory, and emotional turmoil. Extreme events are unlikely to occur, but they can happen someday, and if they do, they have a great impact on society as a whole, so they must be prepared to minimize the impact and impact. For this purpose, we collected opinions from low-level experts at the Korea Army Research Center for Future & Innovation and the Army College on extreme events that can trigger the near future (10 years) in the field of high-tech science and technology, which is currently developing rapidly after the 4th Industrial Revolution. The researchers intend to synthesize and analyze this data to derive implications and provide a response direction to alleviate the ultra-uncertainty of extreme events and provide a cornerstone for crisis management strategies for the occurrence of serial and simultaneous extreme events.

• 천문학회지
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• 제36권2호
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• pp.61-66
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• 2003

We have examined the relationship between the speeds of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the GOES X-ray peak fluxes of associated flares. Noting that previous studies were possibly affected by projection effects and random association effects, we have considered two sets of carefully selected CME-flare events: four homologous events and four well-observed limb events. In the respective samples, good correlations are found between the CME speeds and the GOES X-ray peak fluxes of the associated flares. A similarly good correlation is found for all eight events of both samples when the CME speeds of the homologous events are corrected for projection effect. Our results suggest that a close relationship possibly exists between CME kinematics and flaring processes.

• 천문학회보
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• 제46권1호
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• pp.59.3-60
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• 2021

An investigation of flare-producing magnetic structure is important for studying an initiation of eruptive events. In this study we select two different eruptive events, M5.3 and X1.2 flares in active region (AR) 11283. Both events occur in the same AR, but brightenings of flare ribbons, seen in EUV images, are different shapes. In order to understand triggering process of eruptive flares, we reconstruct coronal magnetic fields using two observation-based models: a nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) extrapolation model and a magnetohydodynamic (MHD) one. The NLFFFs show that sheared arcades and overlying fan-spine configurations are found in both cases, but the distributions of magnetic twist are weaker before the M5.3 flare than before the X1.2 flare. The MHD model is to explore the temporal evolution of coronal magnetic structures by considering the NLFFF with an anomalous resistivity as an initial condition. We discuss possible processes of two eruptive events using the MHD as well as the NLFFF model results.