• Title/Summary/Keyword: Worst case scenario

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A Study on Damage Analysis Safety Distance Setting for LPG BLEVE (LPG BLEVE 피해분석 및 안전거리 설정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jonghyuk;Lee, Byeongwoo;Kim, Jungwook;Jung, Seungho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2020
  • Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion(BLEVE) can cause not only economic damage to the plant but also serious casualties. LPG accidents account for 89.6 percent of all accidents caused by gas leaks in Korea over the past nine years, while casualties from accidents also account for 73 percent of all accidents, according to statistics from the Korea Gas Safety Corporation. In addition, a potential explosion and a fire accident from one LPG storage tank may affect the nearby storage tanks, causing secondary and tertiary damage (domino effect). The safety distance standards for LPG used by LPG workplaces, charging stations, and homes in Korea have become stricter following the explosion of LPG charging stations in Bucheon. The safety distance regulation is divided into regulations based on the distance damage and the risk including frequency. This study suggests two approaches to optimizing the safety distance based on the just consequence and risk including frequencies. Using the Phast 7.2 Risk Assessment software by DNV GL, the explosion overpressure and heat radiation were derived according to the distance caused by BLEVE in the worst-case scenario, and accident and damage probability were derived by considering the probit function and domino effect. In addition, the safety distance between LPG tanks or LPG charging stations was derived to minimize damage effects by utilizing these measures.

An Experimental Study on the Explosion Hazards in the Fuel Cell Room of Residential House (주택 내 수소연료전지 전용실의 폭발 위험성에 대한 실험적 연구)

  • Park, Byoungjik;Kim, Yangkyun;Hwang, Inju
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2021
  • In this study, a real-scale fuel-cell room of volume 1.36 m3 is constructed to confirm the explosion characteristics of hydrogen-air mixture gas in a hydrogen-powered house. A volume concentration of 40% is applied in the fuel-cell room as the worst-case scenario to examine the most severe accident possible, and two types of doors (made of plastic sheet and wood) are fabricated to observe their effects on the overpressure and impulse. The peak overpressure and impulse based on distance from the ignition source are experimentally observed and assessed. The maximum and minimum overpressures with a plastic-sheet door are about 20 and 6.7 kPa and those with a wooden door are about 46 and 13 kPa at distances of 1 and 5 m from the ignition source, respectively. The ranges of impulses for distances of 1-5 m from the ignition source are about 82-28 Pa·s with a plastic-sheet door and 101-28 Pa·s with a wooden door. The amount of damage to people, buildings, and property due to the peak overpressure and impulse is presented to determine the safe distance; accordingly, the safe distance to prevent harm to humans is about 5 m based on the 'injuries' class, but the structural damage was not serious.

A Study on the Establishment of Disaster Prevention Plans for Nuclear Facilities considering Complex Disasters (복합재난을 고려한 원자력시설 사고대비 방재계획 수립방안)

  • Jihoon Shin;Younwon Park;Seunghyeon Kim;Minho Cha;Minsang Ryu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.85-99
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    • 2023
  • By the social advancement, radiological disaster prevention planning is getting important considering complex disasters as in the Fukushima radiological disaster occurred by a chain of natural disasters. However, it has yet to be suggested the specific prevention plans for the complex disasters in the field of national radiological disaster prevention. This study aims to analyze the types of complex disasters in order to select the ones that are relatively more likely to occur in the domestic environment. It is also to analyze the impact on the radiological disaster prevention by searching damage spread of the classified natural disasters. We provides the necessary criterial for establishing disaster prevention plans through the scenarios for radiological emergency responses based on complex disasters. it is thought that these criteria can help prepare for the worst case scenario and implement effective resident protection.

Analysis on Inundation Impacts of Sea Level Rise Using System Dynamics-GIS Model (System Dynamics-GIS 모델을 이용한 해수면 상승 침수 영향 분석)

  • KIM, Ji-Sook;KIM, Ho-Yong;LEE, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.92-104
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    • 2015
  • In order to analyze the impacts of climate change, a time and space integrated model was developed in this study using system dynamics and GIS. The model built was used to carry out a simulation on the inundation impact on A-gu of Busan Metropolitan city resulting from the sea level rise scenario of IPCC and storm surge, which is the worst case. Through this, the flooded area and population until 2100 were predicted. Also, the result and significance of each alternative was reviewed improving the model by establishing alternative scenarios of protection, accommodation and retreat as plans of reaction to sea level rise. The combination of system dynamics and GIS has advantages of how the diverse variables change until the target year can be traced and, accordingly, not only the results but also the processes of spatial change can be examined by calculating the value of change process at each time step. The synergy of this model presumed to be a foothold for solving problems which are becoming difficult to predict due to increase in uncertainty and complexity such as the support for decision making for urban resilience to natural disasters.

A study on the case analysis of Nitric acid chemical accident and establishment of preventive measures (질산 화학사고 사례분석 및 독성피해 영향범위에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Seung;Shin, Chang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.488-496
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    • 2020
  • This study was based on nitrate chemical accidents at home and abroad. Toxic gases due to adverse reactions are generated in the workplace, laboratory, hospital, container damage, and chemical misinjection. Through a case review of possible situations and safety, this study analyzed various cases of accidents, accident status, accident type, cause of the accident, location of the accidents, etc. from 2014 to 2018. The plans for improvement in education and nitrate accidents were reviewed. As a result, 36 nitrate chemical accidents were investigated, including 16 careless worker accidents, eight transportation accidents, and 12 facilities shortages. Nitrate chemical accidents are occurring continuously. Based on this, the range of toxic effects using CARIS was calculated at the worst-case scenario, and the effective response range was measured through the damage impact range. For this purpose, the impact range was predicted based on the strengthening of safety education, emergency action plan and correlation, and the quantified data was identified. In addition, the reliability of the scope of impact was reviewed based on the correlation formula that could facilitate the evacuation of residents, and it was applied to actual accident scenarios of the workplace to present the effects of the accident response and preventive measures.

End to End Model and Delay Performance for V2X in 5G (5G에서 V2X를 위한 End to End 모델 및 지연 성능 평가)

  • Bae, Kyoung Yul;Lee, Hong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2016
  • The advent of 5G mobile communications, which is expected in 2020, will provide many services such as Internet of Things (IoT) and vehicle-to-infra/vehicle/nomadic (V2X) communication. There are many requirements to realizing these services: reduced latency, high data rate and reliability, and real-time service. In particular, a high level of reliability and delay sensitivity with an increased data rate are very important for M2M, IoT, and Factory 4.0. Around the world, 5G standardization organizations have considered these services and grouped them to finally derive the technical requirements and service scenarios. The first scenario is broadcast services that use a high data rate for multiple cases of sporting events or emergencies. The second scenario is as support for e-Health, car reliability, etc.; the third scenario is related to VR games with delay sensitivity and real-time techniques. Recently, these groups have been forming agreements on the requirements for such scenarios and the target level. Various techniques are being studied to satisfy such requirements and are being discussed in the context of software-defined networking (SDN) as the next-generation network architecture. SDN is being used to standardize ONF and basically refers to a structure that separates signals for the control plane from the packets for the data plane. One of the best examples for low latency and high reliability is an intelligent traffic system (ITS) using V2X. Because a car passes a small cell of the 5G network very rapidly, the messages to be delivered in the event of an emergency have to be transported in a very short time. This is a typical example requiring high delay sensitivity. 5G has to support a high reliability and delay sensitivity requirements for V2X in the field of traffic control. For these reasons, V2X is a major application of critical delay. V2X (vehicle-to-infra/vehicle/nomadic) represents all types of communication methods applicable to road and vehicles. It refers to a connected or networked vehicle. V2X can be divided into three kinds of communications. First is the communication between a vehicle and infrastructure (vehicle-to-infrastructure; V2I). Second is the communication between a vehicle and another vehicle (vehicle-to-vehicle; V2V). Third is the communication between a vehicle and mobile equipment (vehicle-to-nomadic devices; V2N). This will be added in the future in various fields. Because the SDN structure is under consideration as the next-generation network architecture, the SDN architecture is significant. However, the centralized architecture of SDN can be considered as an unfavorable structure for delay-sensitive services because a centralized architecture is needed to communicate with many nodes and provide processing power. Therefore, in the case of emergency V2X communications, delay-related control functions require a tree supporting structure. For such a scenario, the architecture of the network processing the vehicle information is a major variable affecting delay. Because it is difficult to meet the desired level of delay sensitivity with a typical fully centralized SDN structure, research on the optimal size of an SDN for processing information is needed. This study examined the SDN architecture considering the V2X emergency delay requirements of a 5G network in the worst-case scenario and performed a system-level simulation on the speed of the car, radius, and cell tier to derive a range of cells for information transfer in SDN network. In the simulation, because 5G provides a sufficiently high data rate, the information for neighboring vehicle support to the car was assumed to be without errors. Furthermore, the 5G small cell was assumed to have a cell radius of 50-100 m, and the maximum speed of the vehicle was considered to be 30-200 km/h in order to examine the network architecture to minimize the delay.

Economic evaluation of a weekly administration of a sustained-release injection of recombinant human growth hormone for the treatment of children with growth hormone deficiency (소아 성장호르몬결핍증 치료에 사용되는 성장호르몬 서방형 주사제의 경제성 평가)

  • Kang, Hye-Young;Kim, Duk Hee;Yang, Sei-Won;Kim, Yoon-Nam;Kim, Miseon
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.52 no.11
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    • pp.1249-1259
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    • 2009
  • Purpose:From a societal perspective, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a novel sustained-release injection of recombinant human growth hormone (GH) administered on a weekly basis compared with that of the present daily GH injection for the treatment of children with GH deficiency. Methods:Health-related utility for GH therapy was measured based on the visual analogue scale. During July 2008, caregivers of 149 children receiving GH therapy form 2 study sites participated in a web-based questionnaire survey. The survey required the caregivers to rate their current subjective utility with daily GH injections or expected utility of weekly GH injections. Because there was no difference in the costs of the daily and weekly therapies, for the purposes of this study, only drug acquisition costs were considered. Results:Switching from daily to weekly injection of GH increased the utility from 0.584 to 0.784 and incurred an extra cost of 4,060,811 Korean won (KW) per year. The incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) for a base case was 20,305,055 KW per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Scenario analyses showed that the ICUR ranged from 15,751,198 to 25,489,929 KW per QALY. Conclusion:The ICUR for a base case and worst case scenario analyses ranged from 0.85 to 1.37-times per capita gross domestic product of Korea, which is considered to be within the generally accepted willingness-to-pay threshold. Thus, it is concluded that switching from daily to weekly injection of GH would be cost-effective.

Consequence Analysis of Hydrogen Filling Stations based on Cascade Compressing Systems (케스케이드 방식 압축시스템 기반의 수소충전소에 대한 정성적 위험성평가)

  • Ahn, Byeong-Jun;Rhim, Jong-Kuk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2021
  • Because of the recent expansion of hydrogen vehicle supply, the installation of hydrogen filling station is expected to gradually expand. This study attempts to predict the damage scale and propose a safer design form based on the scenario that assumes the worst case of a hydrogen station. A Flacs solver using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to predict the damage scale, and the accuracy was verified by comparing it with the experimental results of previous researchers. The damage scale prediction was conducted for hydrogen leakage and explosion, and the prediction target was the KR model based on the measured values. And as a comparative review model, a roofless model was selected without a ceiling. As a result of analyzing the two models, it was possible to confirm the accumulation and retention of hydrogen gas up to 60 vol% or more in the KR model, whereas in the case of the Roofless model, the phenomenon of discharge and diffusion to the outside of the charging station by riding the wall after leakage. I was able to check. In conclusion, it was reviewed that the type of hydrogen charging station without ceiling is more advantageous for safety than the hydrogen filling station model.

Indoor Exposure and Health Risk of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) via Public Facilities PM2.5, Korea (II)

  • Kim, Ho-Hyun;Lee, Geon-Woo;Yang, Ji-Yeon;Jeon, Jun-Min;Lee, Woo-Seok;Lim, Jung-Yun;Lee, Han-Seul;Gwak, Yoon-Kyung;Shin, Dong-Chun;Lim, Young-Wook
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.35-47
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of the study is to evaluate the pollution level (gaseous and particle phase) in the public facilities for the PAHs, non-regulated materials, forecast the risk level by the health risk assessment (HRA) and propose the guideline level. PAH assessments through sampling of particulate matter of diameter < 2.5 ${\mu}m$ ($PM_{2.5}$). The user and worker exposure scenario for the PAHs consists of 24-hour exposure scenario (WIES) assuming the worst case and the normal exposure scenario (MIES) based on the survey. This study investigated 20 PAH substances selected out of 32 substances known to be carcinogenic or potentially carcinogenic. The risk assessment applies major toxic equivalency factor (TEF) proposed from existing studies and estaimates individual Excess Cancer Risk (ECR). The study assesses the fine dusts ($PM_{2.5}$) and the exposure levels of the gaseous and particle PAH materials for 6 spots in each 8 facility, e.g. underground subway stations, child-care facilities, elderly care facilities, super market, indoor parking lot, terminal waiting room, internet caf$\acute{e}$ (PC-rooms), movie theater. For internet caf$\acute{e}$ (PC-rooms) in particular, that marks the highest $PM_{2.5}$ concentration and the average concentration of 10 spots (2 spots for each cafe) is 73.3 ${\mu}g/m^3$ (range: 6.8-185.2 ${\mu}g/m^3$). The high level of $PM_{2.5}$ seen in internet cafes was likely due to indoor smoking in most cases. For the gaseous PAHs, the detection frequency for 4-5 rings shows high and the elements with 6 rings shows low frequency. For the particle PAHs, the detection frequency for 2-3 rings shows low and the elements with 6 rings show high frequency. As a result, it is investigated that the most important PAHs are the naphthalene, acenaphthene and phenanthrene from the study of Kim et al. (2013) and this annual study. The health risk assessment demonstrates that each facility shows the level of $10^{-6}-10^{-4}$. Considering standards and local source of pollution levels, it is judged that the management standard of the benzo (a)pyrene, one of the PAHs, shall be managed with the range of 0.5-1.2 $ng/m^3$. Smoking and ventilation were considered as the most important PAHs exposure associated with public facility $PM_{2.5}$. This study only estimated for inhalation health risk of PAHs and focused on the associated cancer risk, while multiple measurements would be necessary for public health and policy.

Use of Tenax® as a Simulant in the Migration Testing of Paper and Board, and Packaging Materials for Dry Foods and Foods Heated at Ultra-high Temperature (건조식품, 초고온가열식품 및 종이제 포장재의 이행 실험용 시뮬란트로서 Tenax®의 이용)

  • Kim, Hyeong Jun;Lee, Keun Taik
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.229-239
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    • 2018
  • Currently, in Korea, a dry food simulant has not been designated for the migration testing of paper and board, food contact materials (FCMs) being used in dry foods, and foods heated at ultra-high temperature. Considering the diverse usage of FCMs, in order to secure reliable and confident safety evaluation and to overcome the non-trade barrier tariff in worldwide trade, migration testing methods of what should be more clearly defined for securing and overcoming. This article delves into the available literature on the use of $Tenax^{(R)}$ as a simulant for dry foods as well as its suitability and limitations, and examines the feasibility of its introduction into Korean FCMs regulation. Most experimental studies using $Tenax^{(R)}$ showed overestimated migration values when used in real foods, which reflects the potential of $Tenax^{(R)}$ as a dry food simulant in a worst-case scenario. However, more studies are required to optimize migration testing using $Tenax^{(R)}$ by standardizing the solvent type and the extraction method for surrogates of various FCMs and foods, and to resolve the potential drawbacks in the use of $Tenax^{(R)}$.