• Title/Summary/Keyword: Wind velocity estimation

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ARIMA Based Wind Speed Modeling for Wind Farm Reliability Analysis and Cost Estimation

  • Rajeevan, A.K.;Shouri, P.V;Nair, Usha
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.869-877
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    • 2016
  • Necessity has compelled man to improve upon the art of tapping wind energy for power generation; an apt reliever of strain exerted on the non-renewable fossil fuel. The power generation in a Wind Farm (WF) depends on site and wind velocity which varies with time and season which in turn determine wind power modeling. It implies, the development of an accurate wind speed model to predict wind power fluctuations at a particular site is significant. In this paper, Box-Jenkins ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time series model for wind speed is developed for a 99MW wind farm in the southern region of India. Because of the uncertainty in wind power developed, the economic viability and reliability of power generation is significant. Life Cycle Costing (LCC) method is used to determine the economic viability of WF generated power. Reliability models of WF are developed with the help of load curve of the utility grid and Capacity Outage Probability Table (COPT). ARIMA wind speed model is used for developing COPT. The values of annual reliability indices and variations of risk index of the WF with system peak load are calculated. Such reliability models of large WF can be used in generation system planning.

Assessment of Wind Energy Potentiality in Wolryong using Short-term Observation (단기관측에 의한 월령 연안지역 풍력에너지 잠재량 평가)

  • Jeong, Tae-Yoon;Lim, Hee-Chang
    • New & Renewable Energy
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2009
  • Wind energy resources are recently considered as an important power generation alternative in the future. The fact that the investment of wind turbine installation continues to increase has motivated a need to develop more widely applicable methodologies for evaluating the actual benefits of adding wind turbines to conventional generating systems. This study is aiming to estimate the future wind resources with various estimation methods. The wind power is calculated at the hub height 75m of 800KW and 1,500KW wind turbines in Wolryong site, Jeju island, South Korea. Three equations - logarithmic, profile, and power law methods are applied for the accurate prediction of wind profile. In addition, yearly wind power can be calculated by using Weibull & Rayleigh distribution. It is found that predicted wind speed is highly affected by friction velocity, atmospheric stability, and averaged roughness length. It is concluded that Rayleigh distribution provides greater power generation than the Weibull distribution, especially for low wind-speed condition.

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Estimation and Analysis of the Vertical Profile Parameters Using HeMOSU-1 Wind Data (HeMOSU-1 풍속자료를 이용한 연직 분포함수의 매개변수 추정 및 분석)

  • Ko, Dong-Hui;Cho, Hong-Yeon;Lee, Uk-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.122-130
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    • 2021
  • A wind-speed estimation at the arbitrary elevations is key component for the design of the offshore wind energy structures and the computation of the wind-wave generation. However, the wind-speed estimation of the target elevation has been carried out by using the typical functions and their typical parameters, e.g., power and logarithmic functions because the available wind speed data is limited to the specific elevation, such as 2~3m, 10 m, and so on. In this study, the parameters of the vertical profile functions are estimated with optimal and analyzed the parameter ranges using the HeMOSU-1 platform wind data monitored at the eight different locations. The results show that the mean value of the exponent of the power function is 0.1, which is significantly lower than the typically recommended value, 0.14. The values of the exponent, the friction velocity, and the roughness parameters are in the ranges 0.0~0.3, 0~10 (m/s), and 0.0~1.0 (m), respectively. The parameter ranges differ from the typical ranges because the atmospheric stability condition is assumed as the neutral condition. To improve the estimation accuracy, the atmospheric condition should be considered, and a more general (non-linear) vertical profile functions should be introduced to fit the diverse profile patterns and parameters.

Probability density evolution analysis on dynamic response and reliability estimation of wind-excited transmission towers

  • Zhang, Lin-Lin;Li, Jie
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.45-60
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    • 2007
  • Transmission tower is a vital component in electrical system. In order to accurately compute the dynamic response and reliability of transmission tower under the excitation of wind loading, a new method termed as probability density evolution method (PDEM) is introduced in the paper. The PDEM had been proved to be of high accuracy and efficiency in most kinds of stochastic structural analysis. Consequently, it is very hopeful for the above needs to apply the PDEM in dynamic response of wind-excited transmission towers. Meanwhile, this paper explores the wind stochastic field from stochastic Fourier spectrum. Based on this new viewpoint, the basic random parameters of the wind stochastic field, the roughness length $z_0$ and the mean wind velocity at 10 m heigh $U_{10}$, as well as their probability density functions, are investigated. A latticed steel transmission tower subject to wind loading is studied in detail. It is shown that not only the statistic quantities of the dynamic response, but also the instantaneous PDF of the response and the time varying reliability can be worked out by the proposed method. The results demonstrate that the PDEM is feasible and efficient in the dynamic response and reliability analysis of wind-excited transmission towers.

Estimate of First-Passage Probability for Hazard Fluctuating Wind Velocity (재난 변동풍속의 최초파괴확률 평가)

  • Oh, Jong Seop;Heo, Seong Je
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2013
  • A dynamic analysis of random vibration processes is concerned with the first excursion probability based on first passage time during some specified lifetime or duration of the excitation. This study is concerned with the estimation of first-passage probability for hazard fluctuate wind velocity in the major cities reflecting the recent meteorological with largest data samples (yearly 2003-2012). The basic wind speeds were standardized homogeneously to the surface roughness category C, and to 10m above the ground surface. In this paper, the hazard fluctuate wind velocities are treated as a time-independent (stationary) random process and Gaussian random processes. The first excursion probability were calculated from Poisson model based on the independent event of level crossing & two-state Markov model based on the envelopes of level crossing.

The Comparison of the Stability of a Container Crane according to various Wind Load Design Codes (풍하중 설계 기준에 따른 컨테이너 크레인의 안정성 비교)

  • Lee Seong-Wook;Shim Jae-Joon;Han Dong-Seop;Han Geun-Jo;Kim Tae-Hyung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.29 no.6 s.102
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    • pp.561-566
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    • 2005
  • This study was carried out to amlyze and compare the stability of a 50ton container crane according to various wind load design codes. The wind load was evaluated according to 'The Specification of Port Facilities and Equipments / Specification for the design of crane structures (KS A 1627)' and 'Load Criteria of Building Structures' effected by the ministry of construction & transportation And the uplift forces qf a container crane under this wind load were estimated by amlyzing reaction forces at each supporting point and compared each other. From this study, we noticed that the design wind velocity criteria need to be defined specifically when the wind load is evaluated to design a container crane. And we verified the necessity of the estimation of the uplift forces at each supporting point to analyze a structural stability of a container crane and the maximum compressive force in order to consider the stability of the ground foundation of the berth.

Estimation of Wind Resistance Capacity of Nielsen Arch Bridge Based on Measured Data From Monitoring System (모니터링 시스템의 계측자료를 기반으로 한 닐슨아치 교량의 내풍 안정성 평가)

  • Lee, Deok Keun;Yhim, Sung Soon
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.56-64
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    • 2013
  • The wind resistant capacity of bridges with a span of less than 200m is typically evaluated by Wind Resistant Design Manual for Highway Bridges in Japan. Also, the first vertical frequency plays an important role in the evaluation of their aerodynamic performance. An unexpected vortex-induced vibration of Nielsen arch bridge with span of 183m designed by this manual has been measured by monitoring system during typhoon. The amplitude of vibrations was about 2 times than the allowable vibration displacement. This paper presents the feature of vortex-induced vibration of this Nielsen arch bridge based on measured wind velocity, wind direction, and responses at midspan of main girder. From the result of FFT, the $1^{st}$ mode shape of the bridge is antisymmetric and the $2^{nd}$ is symmetric. Also, the dominant vibration of the bridge is the $2^{nd}$ vertical mode. According to these results, the $2^{nd}$ vertical vibration mode of this Nielsen arch bridge is prior to the first for the estimation of wind resistance capacity.

Estimation of Topographic Effects over 3-Dimensional Hills with Different Slopes through Wind Tunnel Tests (경사가 다른 3차원 산악지형에서의 풍동실험을 통한 풍속할증평가)

  • Cho, Kang-Pyo;Cheong, Myung-Chae;Cho, Gi-Sung
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.379-386
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, topographic factors over 3-dimensional hills were estimated through wind tunnel tests. Topographic models having five different slopes of $5.71^{\circ}, \;11.31^{\circ},\;16.70^{\circ},\;21.80^{\circ}$, and $26.57^{\circ}$ which were based on Korean Building Code(KBC(2005), were made for wind tunnel tests. From the result of wind tunnel tests, topographic factors over 3-dimensional hills were obtained at various locations, and the ranges of topographic effects were decided. The ranges of topographic effects was whole area of the hills in the horizontal ranges and heights of 3.5 times of the hills in the vortical ranges. Topographic effects was large at the top of hills, and wind velocity was increased 57% over hill of $5.71^{\circ}$, 75% over hill of $11.31^{\circ}$, 79% over hill of $16.70^{\circ}$, 81% over hill of $21.80^{\circ}$, and 61% over hill of $26.57^{\circ}$. Wind velocity was bigger over surface of across-wind direction of hills than one over surface of wind direction of hills, and wind velocity was increased $10{\sim}30%$ at locations of across-wind direction.

Estimation Method of the Design Wind Load of Soundproof Wall Using GIS (GIS를 이용한 방음벽의 설계풍하중 산정방법)

  • Lee, Dong-Ho;Choi, Se-Hyu
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.75-85
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    • 2015
  • Recently deformed or destroyed of soundproof wall by local winds and typhoon has increased. This research proposed the estimation method of the design wind load of soundproof wall using spatial information analysis based on 1:5,000 digital map and performed comparative analysis with actual application cases. According to the result of quantitative evaluation using GIS, the surface roughness in the downtown area packed with buildings was III and the surface roughness in the suburban district with a relatively small number of buildings was II and the surface roughness in the district packed with open areas and typical farmhouses was I. This shows that the wind load of the soundproof walls reflecting the actual surface conditions was estimated. If the quantitative GIS analysis presented in this study is applied to wind-resistant design of soundproof walls, it is supposed that this will be helpful in more rational wind-resistant design by remedying the existing problem in which the wind load varies depending on designer's subjectivity.

Wind Tunnel Tests for Evaluation of Sliding and Overturning Velocities on Shipping Containers (선박 운송용 컨테이너의 활동 및 전도발생 풍속 평가를 위한 풍동실험)

  • Kim, Wonsul;Yi, Jin-Hak;Yoshida, Akihito
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.260-268
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    • 2017
  • In this study, wind characteristics of a shipping container were investigated through the wind tunnel test (high-frequency force balance test), and damage occurrence velocities of various containers with weights were evaluated based on results of the wind tunnel tests. As a result, mean wind force coefficients acting on containers in x-direction increased in the order of 12ft, 20ft, 40ft and 40ft high cube. On the other hand, mean wind force coefficients at y-direction increased in the order of 40ft high cube, 40ft, 20ft and 12ft. It was suggested that the shear layer separated from the corner of windward surface of the container is reattached on the sides of it, and then the mean wind force coefficient is weaker. As a result of the damage occurrence velocity on containers with weights, it was found that the probability of occurrence of sliding is higher rather than that of overturning. Further, the most unfavorable container was 40ft high cube, and the sliding and overturning occurrence velocities were 20.4 m/s and 26.8 m/s, respectively. Furthermore, the regression formula for sliding and overturing occurrence velocitys were proposed based on the results of relationship between weights of containers and damage occurrence velocities. These results are expected to be useful in establishing a guideline for external force estimation acting on container securing equipment and stacking way.