• 제목/요약/키워드: Wind Speed Prediction

검색결과 313건 처리시간 0.028초

Prediction of typhoon design wind speed and profile over complex terrain

  • Huang, W.F.;Xu, Y.L.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • 제45권1호
    • /
    • pp.1-18
    • /
    • 2013
  • The typhoon wind characteristics designing for buildings or bridges located in complex terrain and typhoon prone region normally cannot be achieved by the very often few field measurement data, or by physical simulation in wind tunnel. This study proposes a numerical simulation procedure for predicting directional typhoon design wind speeds and profiles for sites over complex terrain by integrating typhoon wind field model, Monte Carlo simulation technique, CFD simulation and artificial neural networks (ANN). The site of Stonecutters Bridge in Hong Kong is chosen as a case study to examine the feasibility of the proposed numerical simulation procedure. Directional typhoon wind fields on the upstream of complex terrain are first generated by using typhoon wind field model together with Monte Carlo simulation method. Then, ANN for predicting directional typhoon wind field at the site are trained using representative directional typhoon wind fields for upstream and these at the site obtained from CFD simulation. Finally, based on the trained ANN model, thousands of directional typhoon wind fields for the site can be generated, and the directional design wind speeds by using extreme wind speed analysis and the directional averaged mean wind profiles can be produced for the site. The case study demonstrated that the proposed procedure is feasible and applicable, and that the effects of complex terrain on design typhoon wind speeds and wind profiles are significant.

Wind Power Pattern Forecasting Based on Projected Clustering and Classification Methods

  • Lee, Heon Gyu;Piao, Minghao;Shin, Yong Ho
    • ETRI Journal
    • /
    • 제37권2호
    • /
    • pp.283-294
    • /
    • 2015
  • A model that precisely forecasts how much wind power is generated is critical for making decisions on power generation and infrastructure updates. Existing studies have estimated wind power from wind speed using forecasting models such as ANFIS, SMO, k-NN, and ANN. This study applies a projected clustering technique to identify wind power patterns of wind turbines; profiles the resulting characteristics; and defines hourly and daily power patterns using wind power data collected over a year-long period. A wind power pattern prediction stage uses a time interval feature that is essential for producing representative patterns through a projected clustering technique along with the existing temperature and wind direction from the classifier input. During this stage, this feature is applied to the wind speed, which is the most significant input of a forecasting model. As the test results show, nine hourly power patterns and seven daily power patterns are produced with respect to the Korean wind turbines used in this study. As a result of forecasting the hourly and daily power patterns using the temperature, wind direction, and time interval features for the wind speed, the ANFIS and SMO models show an excellent performance.

A neural network shelter model for small wind turbine siting near single obstacles

  • Brunskill, Andrew William;Lubitz, William David
    • Wind and Structures
    • /
    • 제15권1호
    • /
    • pp.43-64
    • /
    • 2012
  • Many potential small wind turbine locations are near obstacles such as buildings and shelterbelts, which can have a significant, detrimental effect on the local wind climate. A neural network-based model has been developed which predicts mean wind speed and turbulence intensity at points in an obstacle's region of influence, relative to unsheltered conditions. The neural network was trained using measurements collected in the wakes of 18 scale building models exposed to a simulated rural atmospheric boundary layer in a wind tunnel. The model obstacles covered a range of heights, widths, depths, and roof pitches typical of rural buildings. A field experiment was conducted using three unique full scale obstacles to validate model predictions and wind tunnel measurements. The accuracy of the neural network model varies with the quantity predicted and position in the obstacle wake. In general, predictions of mean velocity deficit in the far wake region are most accurate. The overall estimated mean uncertainties associated with model predictions of normalized mean wind speed and turbulence intensity are 4.9% and 12.8%, respectively.

CFD에 의한 2D 에어포일 공력특성 및 3D 풍력터빈 성능예측 (Predicting the Aerodynamic Characteristics of 2D Airfoil and the Performance of 3D Wind Turbine using a CFD Code)

  • 김범석;김만응;이영호
    • 대한기계학회논문집B
    • /
    • 제32권7호
    • /
    • pp.549-557
    • /
    • 2008
  • Despite of the laminar-turbulent transition region co-exist with fully turbulence region around the leading edge of an airfoil, still lots of researchers apply to fully turbulence models to predict aerodynamic characteristics. It is well known that fully turbulent model such as standard k-model couldn't predict the complex stall and the separation behavior on an airfoil accurately, it usually leads to over prediction of the aerodynamic characteristics such as lift and drag forces. So, we apply correlation based transition model to predict aerodynamic performance of the NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) Phase IV wind turbine. And also, compare the computed results from transition model with experimental measurement and fully turbulence results. Results are presented for a range of wind speed, for a NREL Phase IV wind turbine rotor. Low speed shaft torque, power, root bending moment, aerodynamic coefficients of 2D airfoil and several flow field figures results included in this study. As a result, the low speed shaft torque predicted by transitional turbulence model is very good agree with the experimental measurement in whole operating conditions but fully turbulent model(${\kappa}-\;{\varepsilon}$) over predict the shaft torque after 7m/s. Root bending moment is also good agreement between the prediction and experiments for most of the operating conditions, especially with the transition model.

단기 풍관측에 의한 교량현장 기본풍속 추정 (Estimation of Basic Wind Speed at Bridge Construction Site Based on Short-term Measurements)

  • 이성로;김상우
    • 대한토목학회논문집
    • /
    • 제33권4호
    • /
    • pp.1271-1279
    • /
    • 2013
  • 본 논문에서는 단기 관측자료를 활용하여 장대교량 현장의 기본풍속을 추정하는 방법에 대한 연구를 수행하였다. 기상관측소로부터 거리가 먼 장대교량의 내풍설계시 현장의 기본 풍속을 추정하기 위해 현장의 장기 풍속자료를 통계처리하는 것이 필요하다. 현장에 풍관측탑을 설치하고 단기간의 풍관측 자료를 확보하였고 선형회귀분석 및 MCP 방법을 이용하여 인근 기상관측소와의 상관관계를 분석하였다. 기상관측소의 장기풍자료를 지형보정을 한 후 상관관계식에 의해 현장의 장기 풍속자료를 얻었고 풍속자료의 극치 확률분포 분석에 의해 기본풍속 산정을 할 수 있었다. 연구결과에서는 선형회귀분석의 방법이 MCP 방법에 비해 풍속을 낮게 추정하고 있으며, 향후 여러 현장에서 일련의 상관관계 분석을 수행한다면 종합적으로 두 방법에 의한 기본풍속 산정의 차이를 보다 명확히 보여줄 것이다. 또한, 장기자료의 질 관리가 풍속추정에 매우 중요하다는 것을 보여주고 있다.

저속풍동실험 및 유동해석을 통한 고속전철 판토그라프의 유동소음 해석 (Prediction of Aeroacoustics Noise of Pantograph via Low Speed Wind Tunnel Test and Flow Simulation)

  • 조운기;이종수
    • 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국소음진동공학회 2001년도 추계학술대회논문집 II
    • /
    • pp.1207-1214
    • /
    • 2001
  • The paper deals with the computational approach in analysis and design of pantograph panhead strips of high-speed railway in aerodynamic and aeroacoustic concerns. Pantograph is an equipment such that the electric power is supplied from catenary system to train. Due to the nature of complexity in high-speed fluid flow, turbulence and downstream vortices result in the instability in the aerodynamic contact between panhead strips and catenary system, and consequently generate the considerable levels of flow-induced sound. In this paper, based on the preceding low speed wind-tunnel test and simulations, the aerodynamic and aeroacoustic characteristics in low speed are analyzed.

  • PDF

일 최대풍속의 추정확률분포에 의한 농작물 강풍 피해 위험도 판정 방법 (Prediction of Wind Damage Risk based on Estimation of Probability Distribution of Daily Maximum Wind Speed)

  • 김수옥
    • 한국농림기상학회지
    • /
    • 제19권3호
    • /
    • pp.130-139
    • /
    • 2017
  • 기상청 동네예보 풍속으로부터 농작물의 강풍피해를 예측하기 위해, 방재기상관측지점 19곳의 2012년 풍속자료를 이용하여 기상청 동네예보의 3시간 간격과 동일한 0000, 0300 ${\cdots}$ 2100 시간대의 풍속과 직전 3시간 동안의 최대풍속 간의 관계를 직선회귀식으로 표현하였다. 매 3시간 마다 추정된 최대풍속 중 가장 큰 값을 일 최대풍속으로 간주하고, 이 때의 추정오차를 정규분포와 Weibull 분포 확률밀도함수로 표현하였다. 또한 일 최대풍속과 작물 피해 임계풍속 간의 편차를 추정오차 기반 확률 분포에 적용하여 확률누적값으로 풍해 '주의보'와 '경보' 단계를 설정하였다. 19지점별 최대풍속 추정 회귀계수(a, b)와 추정오차의 표준편차 및 Weibull 분포의 모수(${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$)는 공간내삽하여 분포도로 작성하고 종관기상관측지점 4곳(순천, 남원, 임실, 장수)의 격자값을 추출하였다. 이를 이용해 2012년의 일 최대풍속을 추정하고, 배 만삼길 품종의 낙과 발생 사례에서 제시된 풍속 10m/s를 낙과 임계풍속으로 간주, 풍해 주의보와 경보를 판정하였다. 그 결과, 최대풍속 추정오차를 Weibull 분포로 표현하여 풍해 위험 정도를 판정하는 것이 정규분포만을 이용하는 것보다 더 현장에 정확한 주의보를 발령할 수 있었다.

The Influence of Optical Porosity of Tree Windbreaks on Windward Wind Speed, Erosive Force and Sand Deposition

  • Dafa-Alla, M.D.;Al-Amin, Nawal K.N.
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
    • /
    • 제32권2호
    • /
    • pp.212-218
    • /
    • 2016
  • The research was conducted windward of an irrigated Acacia amplicips Maslin windbreak established to protect As Salam Cement Plant from winds and moving sands. Two belts with approximate optical porosities of 50% and 20% were studied in River Nile State, Sudan. The research aimed at assessing the efficiency of the two belts in wind speed reduction and sand deposition. Research methods included: (i) estimation of optical porosity, (ii) measurements of windward wind speeds at a control and at distances of 0.5 h (h stands for windbreak height), 1 h and 2 h at two vertical levels of 0.25 h and 0.5 h, (iii) estimation of relative wind speeds at the three positions (distance and height) at windward and (iv) estimation of wind erosive forces and prediction of zones of sand deposition. Results show that while the two belts reduced windward wind speeds at the two levels for the three distances, belt II was more effective. Nearest sand deposition occurred at 2 h and 1h windward of belt II and belt I, respectively, at level 0.25 h. At level 0.5 h, sand was deposited only at 2 h windward of belt II and no sand deposition occurred windward of belt I. The study concludes that less porous windbreaks are more effective in reducing wind speed and in depositing sand in windward direction at a distance of not less than twice the belt height.

기상조건에 따른 부산지역 대기오염물질 농도변화와 예측에 관한 연구 (On the Prediction and Variation of Air Pollutants Concentration in Relation to the Meteorological Condition in Pusan Area)

  • 정영진;이동인
    • 한국대기환경학회지
    • /
    • 제14권3호
    • /
    • pp.177-190
    • /
    • 1998
  • The concentrations of air pollutants In large cities such as Pusan area have been increased every year due to the increasing of fuels consumption at factories and by vehicles as well as the gravitation of the population. In addition to the pollution sources, time and spatial variation of air pollutants concentration and meteorological factors have a great influence on the air pollution problem. Especially , its concentration is governed by wind direction, wind speed, precipitation, solar radiation, temperature, humidity and cloud amounts, etc. In this study, we have analyzed various data of meteorological factors using typical patterns of the air pressure to investigate how the concentration of air pollutants is varied with meteorological condition. Using the relationship between meteorological factors (air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and solar radiation) and the concentration of air pollutants (SO2, O3) , experimental prediction formulas for their concentration were obtained. Therefore, these prediction formulas at each meteorological factor in a pressure pattern may be roughly used to predict the air pollutants concentration and contributed to estimate the variation of its value according to the weather condition in Pusan city.

  • PDF

풍력자원평가를 위한 단순지형에서의 육상 기상탑 바람 데이터의 상호 적용 (Mutual Application of Met-Masts Wind Data on Simple Terrain for Wind Resource Assessment)

  • 손진혁;고경남;허종철;김인행
    • 동력기계공학회지
    • /
    • 제21권6호
    • /
    • pp.31-39
    • /
    • 2017
  • In order to examine if met-masts wind data can exchange each other for wind resource assessment, an investigation was carried out in Kimnyeong and Haengwon regions of Jeju Island. The two regions are both simple terrain and 4.31 km away from each other. The one-year wind speed data measured by 70 m-high anemometers of each met-mast of the two regions were analysed in detail. Measure-Correlate-Predict (MCP) method was applied to the two regions using the 10-year Automatic Weather System (AWS) wind data of Gujwa region for creating 10-year Wind Statistics by running WindPRO software. The two 10-year Wind Statistics were applied to the self-met mast point for self prediction of Annual Energy Production (AEP) and Capacity Factor (CF) and the each other's met mast point for mutual prediction of them. As a result, when self-prediction values were reference, relative errors of mutual prediction values were less than 1% for AEP and CF so that met masts wind data under the same condition of this study could exchange each other for estimating accurate wind resource.