• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.61-68
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• 2020

E-sports has grown steadily in recent years and has become a popular sport in the world. In this paper, we propose a win-loss prediction model of League of Legends at the start of the game. In League of Legends, the combination of a champion statistics of the team that is made through each player's selection affects the win-loss of the game. The proposed model is a deep learning model based on Bidirectional LSTM embedding which considers a combination of champion statistics for each team without any domain knowledge. Compared with other prediction models, the highest prediction accuracy of 58.07% was evaluated in the proposed model considering a combination of champion statistics for each team.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.8-17
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• 2014

In this research, we employed various data mining techniques to build predictive models for win-loss prediction in Korean professional baseball games. The historical data containing information about players and teams was obtained from the official materials that are provided by the KBO website. Using the collected raw data, we additionally prepared two more types of dataset, which are in ratio and binary format respectively. Dividing away-team's records by the records of the corresponding home-team generated the ratio dataset, while the binary dataset was obtained by comparing the record values. We applied seven classification techniques to three (raw, ratio, and binary) datasets. The employed data mining techniques are decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, neural network, support vector machine, linear discriminant analysis, and quadratic discriminant analysis. Among 21(= 3 datasets${\times}$7 techniques) prediction scenarios, the most accurate model was obtained from the random forest technique based on the binary dataset, which prediction accuracy was 84.14%. It was also observed that using the ratio and the binary dataset helped to build better prediction models than using the raw data. From the capability of variable selection in decision tree, random forest, and stepwise logistic regression, we found that annual salary, earned run, strikeout, pitcher's winning percentage, and four balls are important winning factors of a game. This research is distinct from existing studies in that we used three different types of data and various data mining techniques for win-loss prediction in Korean professional baseball games.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.17-24
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• 2019

In this paper, we propose a new model for predicting effective Win/Loss in professional baseball game in Korea using machine learning technique. we used basic baseball data and Sabermetrics data, which are highly correlated with score to predict and we used the deep learning technique to learn based on supervised learning. The Drop-Out algorithm and the ReLu activation function In the trained neural network, the expected odds was calculated using the predictions of the team's expected scores and expected loss. The team with the higher expected rate of victory was predicted as the winning team. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, we compared the actual percentage of win, pythagorean expectation, and win percentage of the proposed model.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.28 no.12
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• pp.23-32
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• 2023

E-sports, a burgeoning facet of modern sports culture, has achieved global prominence. Particularly, Aeon of Strife (AOS) games, emblematic of E-sports, blend individual player prowess with team dynamics to significantly influence outcomes. This study aggregates and analyzes real user gameplay data using statistical techniques. Furthermore, it develops and tests win-loss prediction models through machine learning, leveraging a substantial dataset of 1,149,950 individual data points and 230,234 team data points. These models, employing five machine learning algorithms, demonstrate an average accuracy of 80% for individual and 95% for team predictions. The findings not only provide insights beneficial to game developers for enhancing game operations but also offer strategic guidance to general users. Notably, the team-based model outperformed the individual-based model, suggesting its superior predictive capability.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.77-84
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• 2020

In this study, we conducted a study on the win-loss predicton analysis of korean professional baseball by artificial intelligence models. Based on the model, we predicted the winner as well as each team's final rank in the league. Additionally, we developed a website for viewers' understanding. In each game's first, third, and fifth inning, we analyze to select the best model that performs the highest accuracy and minimizes errors. Based on the result, we generate the rankings. We used the predicted data started from May 5, the season's opening day, to August 30, 2020 to generate the rankings. In the games which Kia Tigers did not play, however, we used actual games' results in the data. KNN and AdaBoost selected the most optimized machine learning model. As a result, we observe a decreasing trend of the predicted results' ranking error as the season progresses. The deep learning model recorded 89% of the model accuracy. It provides the same result of decreasing ranking error trends of the predicted results that we observe in the machine learning model. We estimate that this study's result applies to future KBO predictions as well as other fields. We expect broadcasting enhancements by posting the predicted winning percentage per inning which is generated by AI algorism. We expect this will bring new interest to the KBO fans. Furthermore, the prediction generated at each inning would provide insights to teams so that they can analyze data and come up with successful strategies.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.231-240
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• 2020

With the development in the IT industry and the growth in the game industry, user's game data is recorded in seconds according to various plays and options, and a vast amount of game data can be analyzed based on Bigdata. Combined with business, Bigdata is used to discover new values for profit creation in various fields, but it is utilized in the game industry in insufficient ways. In this study, considering the characteristics of the subdivided lines, we constructed a win-loss prediction model for each line using the game data of League of Legends, and derived the importance of variables. This study can contribute to planning of strategies for general game users to get information about team members in advance and increase the win rate by using the record search sites.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.297-319
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• 2016

Football match predictions are of great interest to fans and sports press. In the last few years it has been the focus of several studies. In this paper, we propose the Poisson regression model in order to football match outcomes. We applied the proposed methodology to two national competitions: the 2012-2013 English Premier League and the 2015 Brazilian Football League. The number of goals scored by each team in a match is assumed to follow Poisson distribution, whose average reflects the strength of the attack, defense and the home team advantage. Inferences about all unknown quantities involved are made using a Bayesian approach. We calculate the probabilities of win, draw and loss for each match using a simulation procedure. Besides, also using simulation, the probability of a team qualifying for continental tournaments, being crowned champion or relegated to the second division is obtained.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.48-56
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• 2022

The importance of data analysis in baseball has been increasing after the success of MLB's Oakland which applied Billy Beane's money ball theory, and the 2020 KBO winner NC Dinos. Various studies using data in baseball has been conducted not only in the United States but also in Korea, In particular, the models using deep learning and machine learning has been suggested. However, in the previous studies using deep learning and machine learning, the focus is only on predicting the win or loss of the game, and there is a limitation in that it is difficult to interpret the results of which factors have an important influence on the game. In this paper, to investigate which factors is important by position, the prediction model for the Golden Glove award which is given for the best player by position is developed. To develop the prediction model, XGBoost which is one of boosting method is used, which also provide the feature importance which can be used to interpret the factors for prediction results. From the analysis, the important factors by position are identified.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.323-338
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• 2024

This study analyzes the Korean professional volleyball league and predict match outcomes using popular machine learning classification methods. Match data from the 2012/2013 to 2022/2023 seasons for both male and female leagues were collected, including match details. Two different data structures were applied to the models: Separating matches results into two teams and performance differentials between the home and away teams. These two data structures were applied to construct a total of four predictive models, encompassing both male and female leagues. As specific variable values used in the models are unavailable before the end of matches, the results of the most recent 3 to 4 matches, up until just before today's match, were preprocessed and utilized as variables. Logistc Regrssion, Decision Tree, Bagging, Random Forest, Xgboost, Adaboost, and Light GBM, were employed for classification, and the model employing Random Forest showed the highest predictive performance. The results indicated that while significant variables varied by gender and data structure, set success rate, blocking points scored, and the number of faults were consistently crucial. Notably, our win-loss prediction model's distinctiveness lies in its ability to provide pre-match forecasts rather than post-event predictions.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.213-221
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• 2021

In this paper, we suggest the Deep Neural Network Model System for predicting results of the match of 'League of Legends (LOL).' The model utilized approximately 26,000 matches of the LOL game and Keras of Tensorflow. It performed an accuracy of 93.75% without overfitting disadvantage in predicting the '2020 League of Legends Worlds Championship' utilizing the real data in the middle of the game. It employed functions of Sigmoid, Relu and Logcosh, for better performance. The experiments found that the four variables largely affected the accuracy of predicting the match --- 'Dragon Gap', 'Level Gap', 'Blue Rift Heralds', and 'Tower Kills Gap,' and ordinary users can also use the model to help develop game strategies by focusing on four elements. Furthermore, the model can be applied to predicting the match of E-sports professional leagues around the world and to the useful training indicators for professional teams, contributing to vitalization of E-sports.