• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weibull probability distribution

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새만금 고군산군도의 풍자원 측정 및 분석 (Measurement and Analysis of Wind Energy Potential in Kokunsando of Saemankeum)

  • 심애리;최연성;이장호
    • 신재생에너지
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2011
  • Saemankeum is well known for its high speed wind, and it is known that the blueprint of a future city around Saemankeum, including new industrial complex, has been planned. As a result, large-scale offshore wind farm, on the basis of the measurement of wind resource for a long time, can be considered, so that generated electricity can be used to meet the energy demand near the wind farm. Wind speed in Kokunsando of Saemankeum is measured and analyzed with its statistical distribution and wind directions. The probability of wind power resource over Kokunsando of Saemangeum is reviewed with the measured data in one island of Kokunsando. According to measured data, the shape and scale factor of Weibull distribution of wind speed are obtained, and then power density is analyzed as well. Through this study, it is clear that the Saemangeum area has a fluent and abundant wind power source to develop the wind farm in Korea.

Mod. 9Cr-1Mo강의 크리프 균열 성장 법칙의 파라메터 B와 q의 통계적 성질에 관한 연구 (On the Statistical Properties of the Parameters B and q in Creep Crack Growth Law, da/dt=B(C*)q, in the Case of Mod. 9Cr-1Mo Steel)

  • 김선진;박재영;김우곤
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제35권3호
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    • pp.251-257
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구는 차세대 원자로의 후보 재료인 수정 9Cr-1Mo 강에 대한 크리프 균열 성장률 법칙, da/dt=B$(C^*)^q$의 파라메터 B와 q에 대한 통계적 성질에 대하여 취급하였다. 본 해석에 이용된 크리프 균열 성장 데이터는 $600^{\circ}C$의 일정 온도에서 5000N의 동일 하중하의 1/2 CT 시험편에 대하여 크리프 균열 성장 실험을 수행하였다. 크리프 균열 성장 거동은 크리프 균열 성장률 da/dt 와 파괴역학 파라메터 $C^*$와의 실험적 관계식으로부터 통계적으로 해석하였다. 각각의 시험편에 대한 파라메터 B와 q는 최소자승법에 의하여 결정하였다. B와 q에 대한 확률분포함수를 정규분포, 대수정규분포 그리고 와이블분포에 대하여 조사하였다. 본 연구에 의하면, B와 q의 확률분포함수는 대수정규분포와 와이블분포에 비교적 잘 따름을 알았다. 또한 이들 사이에는 강한 양의 선형적인 상관이 있음을 알았다.

Spectral Fatigue Analysis for Topside Structure of Offshore Floating Vessel

  • Kim, Dae-Ho;Ahn, Jae-Woo;Park, Sung-Gun;Jun, Seock-Hee;Oh, Yeong-Tae
    • Journal of Advanced Research in Ocean Engineering
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    • 제1권4호
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2015
  • In this study, a spectral fatigue analysis was performed for the topside structure of an offshore floating vessel. The topside structure was idealized using beam elements in the SACS program. The fatigue analysis was carried out considering the wave and wind loads separately. For the wave-induced fatigue damage calculation, motion RAOs calculated from a direct wave load analysis and regular waves with different periods and unit wave heights were utilized. Then, the member end force transfer functions were generated covering all the loading conditions. Stress response transfer functions at each joint were produced using the specified SCFs and member end force transfer functions. fatigue damages were calculated using the obtained stress ranges, S-N curve, wave spectrum, heading probability of each loading condition, and their corresponding occurrences in the wave scatter diagrams. For the wind induced fatigue damage calculation, a dynamic wind spectral fatigue analysis was performed. First, a dynamic natural frequency analysis was performed to generate the structural dynamic characteristics, including the eigenvalues (natural frequencies), eigenvectors (mode shapes), and mass matrix. To adequately represent the dynamic characteristic of the structure, the number of modes was appropriately determined in the lateral direction. Second, a wind spectral fatigue analysis was performed using the mode shapes and mass data obtained from the previous results. In this analysis, the Weibull distribution of the wind speed occurrence, occurrence probability in each direction, damping coefficient, S-N curves, and SCF of each joint were defined and used. In particular, the wind fatigue damages were calculated under the assumption that the stress ranges followed a Rayleigh distribution. The total fatigue damages were calculated from the combination with wind and wave fatigue damages according to the DNV rule.

환경성 발암물질의 용량-반응모델의 이론적 근거와 응용에 관한 연구 - 음용수 중 chloroform을 중심으로 (Scientific rationale and applicability of dose-response models for environmental carcinogens)

  • 신동천;정용;김종만;이성임;황만식
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.27-41
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    • 1996
  • This study described methods to predict human health risk associated with exposure to environmental carcinogens using animal bioassay data. Also, biological assumption for various dose-response models were reviewed. To illustrate the process of risk estimate using relevant dose-response models such as Log-normal, Mantel-Bryan, Weibull and Multistage model, we used four animal carcinogenesis bioassy data of chloroform and chloroform concentrations of tap water measured in large cities of Korea from 1987 to 1995. As a result, in the case of using average concentration in exposure data and 95% upper boud unit risk of Multistge model, excess cancer risk(RISK I) was about $1.9\times10^{-6}$, in the case of using probability distribution of cumulative exposure data and unit risks, those risks(RISK II) which were simulated by Monte-Carlo analysis were about $2.4\times10^{-6}\;and\;7.9\times10^{-5}$ at 50 and 95 percentile, respectively. Therefore risk estimated by Monte-Carlo analysis using probability distribution of input variables may be more conservative.

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고온초전도 변압기를 위한 턴간 모델의 V-t 특성 및 생존 확률 (V-t Characteristics and Survival Probability of Turn-to-Turn Models for HTS Transformer)

  • 백승명;천현권;;석복렬;김상현
    • 한국전기전자재료학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전기전자재료학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 논문집 Vol.17
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    • pp.356-362
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    • 2004
  • Using multi wrapped copper by polyimide film for HTS transformer, the breakdown and V-t characteristics of two type models for turn-to-turn, one is point contact model, the other is surface contact model, were investigated under ac and impulse voltage at 77 K. A material that is Polyimide film (Kapton) 0.025 mm thickness is used for multi wrapping of the electrode. Statistical analysis of the results using Weibull distribution to examine the wrapping number effects on V-t characteristics under at voltage as well as breakdown voltage under ac and impulse voltage in $LN_2$ was carried. Also, survival analysis was performed according to the Kaplan-Meier method. The breakdown voltages for surface contact model are lower than that of the point contact model, because the contact area of surface contact model is wider than that of point contact model. At the same time, the shape parameter of the point contact model is a little bit larger than the of the surface contact model. The time to breakdown tn is decreased as the applied voltage is increased, and the lifetime indices slightly are increased as the number of layers is increased. According to the increasing applied voltage and decreasing wrapping number, the survival probability is increased.

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몬테 카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 소나무 탄소배출계수의 불확도 평가 (Uncertainty Assessment of Emission Factors for Pinus densiflora using Monte Carlo Simulation Technique)

  • 표정기;손영모;장광민;이영진
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제102권4호
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    • pp.477-483
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구의 목적은 몬테 카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용하여 소나무 탄소배출계수 자료의 확률밀도를 추정하고 불확도를 제시하는데 있다. 이용된 탄소배출계수는 목재기본밀도, 바이오매스확장계수, 뿌리함량비이고 4개의 확률밀도 함수(정규분포, 로그정규분포, 감마분포, 와이불 분포)를 고려하였다. 2-표본 콜모그로프-스미르노프 검정통계량과 누적밀도그림을 비교하여 최적의 확률밀도함수를 선정하고 상한과 하한의 불확도를 제시하였다. 본 연구의 결과에 의하면, 각 탄소배출계수에서 추정된 확률밀도함수는 강원지방소나무에서 목재기본밀도는 감마분포, 바이오매스확장계수는 로그정규분포, 뿌리함량비는 정규분포이고 중부지방소나무에서 목재기본밀도는 정규분포, 바이오매스확장계수는 감마분포, 뿌리함량비는 감마분포를 나타내었다. 강원지방소나무 탄소배출계수의 불확도는 상한에서 62.1%, 하한에서 -52.6%이고 중부지방소나무는 상한에서 43.9%, 하한에서 -34.5%를 나타내었다.

확률분포를 이용한 취성재료 특성의 탄소섬유보강폴리머 인장물성평가 및 보정 (Evaluation and Modification of Tensile Properties of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer(CFRP) as Brittle Material with Probability Distribution)

  • 김윤곤
    • 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2019
  • 탄소섬유보강폴리머(CFRP)는 경량이며, 성형성 및 작업성이 뛰어나 보수보강재료로서 널리 사용되고 있다. 하지만, 연성재료인 철근과는 달리 CFRP는 취성재료이므로, 철근에서 사용되는 전통적인 설계접근 방법을 적용하는 것은 부적합하다. 연성재료인 철근은 항복이후 요소사이의 응력재분배가 이뤄져 복합요소의 거동은 평균화된다. 따라서 복합요소의 응력 평균은 단위요소의 평균과 같고, 표준편차는 더 작아진다. 따라서 연성재료의 설계값은 증가시킬 수 있으나, 안전측, 실무적 접근에서 고정값을 사용한다. 반면 취성재료의 경우, 응력재분배를 기대하기 어려워 복합요소의 거동은 더 약한 요소에 의해 결정된다. 이에 복합요소의 응력의 평균값과 표준편차는 감소한다. 따라서 취성재료의 설계값은 요소수가 증가할수록 감소한다. 이 논문에서는 취성재료에서 정규분포를 가지는 단위요소가 요소 결합에 따라 와이블 분포를 가지게 됨을 증명하고, 이를 반영하여 하중이 작용하는 면적에 따른 물성치의 보정식을 제안하였다.

가평천 어류의 서식처적합도지수 산정 (Estimation of Habitat Suitability Index of Fish Species in the Gapyeong stream)

  • 공동수;손세환;김진영;김필재;권용주;김정우;김예지;민정기;김아름
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.626-639
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    • 2017
  • Based on an ecological monitoring in a Korean stream (Gapyeong), Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) of nine fish species was developed for three physical habitat factors : current velocity, water depth and substrate. The species were chosen based on their abundance and frequency in the fish community of the Gapyeong stream. The Weibull model was used as the probability density function to analyze the distribution and number of each fish species according to the three identified physical factors, which showed good results. This HSI equation has advantages because it statistically expresses habitat preferences of fish species simply and clearly. From that, we can quantitatively deduce the central tendency and variation of environmental factors for fish distribution. The selected fish species showed different preferences for each habitat factor respectively. Although there are some exceptions, the distribution and abundance of individual species of nektonic fish (Zacco koreanus, Zacco platypus, Microphysogobio longidorsalis and Pungtungia herzi) were positively skewed to deep water and fine substrate while riffle-benthic fish (Koreocobitis rotundicaudata and Coreoleuciscus splendidus) were normally distributed at the shallow and coarse substrate zone. It seems that the species showing the positively skewed distribution to the current, Z. koreanus, Z. platypus, M. longidorsalis and P. herzi have adapted themselves to the fast current and have expanded their niche.

Joint distribution of wind speed and direction in the context of field measurement

  • Wang, Hao;Tao, Tianyou;Wu, Teng;Mao, Jianxiao;Li, Aiqun
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제20권5호
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    • pp.701-718
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    • 2015
  • The joint distribution of wind speed and wind direction at a bridge site is vital to the estimation of the basic wind speed, and hence to the wind-induced vibration analysis of long-span bridges. Instead of the conventional way relying on the weather stations, this study proposed an alternate approach to obtain the original records of wind speed and the corresponding directions based on field measurement supported by the Structural Health Monitoring System (SHMS). Specifically, SHMS of Sutong Cable-stayed Bridge (SCB) is utilized to study the basic wind speed with directional information. Four anemometers are installed in the SHMS of SCB: upstream and downstream of the main deck center, top of the north and south tower respectively. Using the recorded wind data from SHMS, the joint distribution of wind speed and direction is investigated based on statistical methods, and then the basic wind speeds in 10-year and 100-year recurrence intervals at these four key positions are calculated. Analytical results verify the reliability of the recorded wind data from SHMS, and indicate that the joint probability model for the extreme wind speed at SCB site fits well with the Weibull model. It is shown that the calculated basic wind speed is reduced by considering the influence of wind direction. Compared to the design basic wind speed in the Specification of China, basic wind speed considering the influence of direction or not is much smaller, indicating a high safety coefficient in the design of SCB. The results obtained in this study can provide not only references for further wind-resistance research of SCB, but also improve the understanding of the safety coefficient for wind-resistance design of other engineering structures in the similar area.

K-1전차의 고장분포와 부하에 따른 고장률 차이에 대한 연구 (A Study of the Failure Distribution and the Failure Difference by the Stress on the K-1 Tracked Vehicle)

  • 이상진;최석윤
    • 한국국방경영분석학회지
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    • 제35권2호
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2009
  • 이 연구는 국방장비의 고장률함수가 욕조곡선을 이루고 있는지를 조사하기 위한 것이다. 국방장비 가운데 K-1 전차를 선택하여 고장확률밀도함수에 대한 고장률함수의 형태를 조사하였다. 또 다른 목적은 전차 운용환경에 따라 고장발생 차이가 발생하는지를 조사하는 것이다. 연구 결과, K-1전차의 고장률은 대체로 와이블분포를 따르고 있음을 보여준다. 와이블분포는 욕조곡선과 같이 시스템의 고장률이 전체 수명주기동안 다른 모양을 가지고 있을 때 유용하다. 전차가 운용을 개시하는 초기시점의 고장률함수는 고장이 많이 발생하다가 시간이 경과함에 따라 점차 낮아지는 와이블분포의 감소형 함수를 따르고 있다. 초기고장 시기를 지나면 고장이 안정적으로 발생하는 임의고장 단계에 이르며 이 시기는 고장률이 일정한 와이블분포를 따르게 된다. 장비의 사용기간이 증가하게 되면 마모로 인한 고장이 점차 증가하며 고장률함수는 증가형 함수를 따르게 된다. 또한 연구를 통해 전차의 운용 지형이 열악한 환경에서 고장이 더 많이 발생하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 연구 결과 시사점으로는 창정비 주기를 설정하는데 있어 욕조곡선에서 마모고장이 발생하는 시점을 창정비 시기로 선택해야 할 것이다. 또한 전차 운용 지형을 고려하여 창정비 주기를 조절해야 할 것이다.