• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weibull Reliability Analysis

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A Stochastic Analysis in Fatigue Strength of Degraded Steam Turbine Blade Steel (열화된 증기 터빈블레이드의 피로강도에 대한 확률론적 해석)

  • Kim, Chul-Su;Jung, Hwa-Young;Kim, Jung-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.262-267
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    • 2001
  • In this study, the Reliability of degraded steam turbine blade was evaluated using the limited fatigue data. The statistical estimation of limited fatigue data implies that some unknown uncertainties which may be involved in fatigue reliability analysis. Therefore, an appropriate distribution in the fatigue strength was determined by the characteristic distribution - linear correlation coefficient, fatigue physics, error parameter. 3-parameter Weibull distribution is the most appropriate distribution to assume for infinite region. The load applied on the blade is mainly tensile. The maximum Von-Mises stress is 219.4 MPa at the steady state service condition. The failure probability($F_p$) derived from the strength-stress interference model using Monte carlo simulation under variable service condition is 0.25% at the 99.99% confidence level.

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Symptom-based reliability analyses and performance assessment of corroded reinforced concrete structures

  • Chen, Hua-Peng;Xiao, Nan
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.53 no.6
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    • pp.1183-1200
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    • 2015
  • Reinforcement corrosion can cause serious safety deterioration to aging concrete structures exposed in aggressive environments. This paper presents an approach for reliability analyses of deteriorating reinforced concrete structures affected by reinforcement corrosion on the basis of the representative symptoms identified during the deterioration process. The concrete cracking growth and rebar bond strength evolution due to reinforcement corrosion are chosen as key symptoms for the performance deterioration of concrete structures. The crack width at concrete cover surface largely depends on the corrosion penetration of rebar due to the expansive rust layer at the bond interface generated by reinforcement corrosion. The bond strength of rebar in the concrete correlates well with concrete crack width and decays steadily with crack width growth. The estimates of cracking development and bond strength deterioration are examined by experimental data available from various sources, and then matched with symptom-based lifetime Weibull model. The symptom reliability and remaining useful life are predicted from the predictive lifetime Weibull model for deteriorating concrete structures. Finally, a numerical example is provided to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach for forecasting the performance of concrete structures subject to reinforcement corrosion. The results show that the corrosion rate has significant impact on the reliability associated with serviceability and load bearing capacity of reinforced concrete structures during their service life.

A Comparison Study between Uniform Testing Effort and Weibull Testing Effort during Software Development (소프트웨어 개발시 일정테스트노력과 웨이불 테스트 노력의 비교 연구)

  • 최규식;장원석;김종기
    • Journal of Information Technology Application
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.91-106
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    • 2001
  • We propose a software-reliability growth model incoporating the amount of uniform and Weibull testing efforts during the software testing phase in this paper. The time-dependent behavior of testing effort is described by uniform and Weibull curves. Assuming that the error detection rate to the amount of testing effort spent during the testing phase is proportional to the current error content, the model is formulated by a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Using this model the method the data analysis for software reliability measurement is developed. The optimum release time is determined by considering how the initial reliability R($\chi$ 0) would be. The conditions are ($R\chi$ 0)>$R_{o}$ , $P_{o}$ >R($\chi$ 0)> $R_{o}$ $^{d}$ and R($\chi$ 0)<$R_{o}$ $^{d}$ for uniform testing efforts. deal case is $P_{o}$ >($R\chi$ 0)> $R_{o}$ $^{d}$ Likewise, it is ($R\chi$ 0)$\geq$$R_{o}$ , $R_{o}$ >($R\chi$ 0)>R(eqation omitted) and ($R\chi$ 0)<R(eqation omitted)for Weibull testing efforts. Ideal case is $R_{o}$ > R($\chi$ 0)> R(eqation omitted).

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Accelerated Test Design for Crankshaft Reliability Estimation

  • Jung, D.H.;Pyun, Y.S.;Gafurov, A.;Chung, W.S.
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.109-118
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    • 2009
  • Crankshaft, the core element of the engine of a vehicle, transforms the translational motion generated by combustion to rotational motion. Its failure will cause serious damage to the engine so its reliability verification must be performed. In this study, the S-N data of the bending and torsion fatigue limits of a crankshaft are derived. To evaluate the reliability of the crankshaft, reliability verification and analysis are performed. For the purpose of further evaluation, the bending and torsion tests of the original crankshaft are carried out, and failure mode analysis is made. The appropriate number of samples, the applied load, and the test time are computed. On the basis of the test results, Weibull analysis for the shape and scale parameters of the crankshaft is estimated. Likewise, the $B_{10}$ life under 50% of the confidence level and the MTTF are exactly calculated, and the groundwork for improving the reliability of the crankshaft is laid.

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A Study on Standardization of Fracture Strength of Secondary Barrier of FSB in MARK-III LNG CCS using Weibull Distribution (Weibull 통계분석을 이용한 MARK-III LNG CCS의 2차 방벽 FSB 파단강도 표준화 연구)

  • Jeong, Yeon-Jae;Kim, Hee-Tae;Kim, Jeong-Dae;Oh, Hoon-Gyu;Kim, Yong-Tai;Park, Seong-Bo;Lee, Jae-Myung
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.58 no.3
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    • pp.137-143
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the fracture strength of Flexible Secondary Barrier (FSB) composites was standardized by conducting a distribution analysis of the fracture probability, considering that the fracture strength of FSB composites such as glass fiber reinforced composites is relatively large. As the mechanical performance of FSB composites varies with the fiber direction, 20 replicate uniaxial tensile tests were performed for different temperatures ranging from the ambient to cryogenic conditions, considering the actual operating environment of liquefied natural gas. For the probability statistical analysis, the Weibull distribution analysis derived from the weakest link theory was used, considering the large variance in the fracture strength and brittle fracture behavior. The results of the Weibull distribution analysis were used to calculate the standard fracture strength of the FSB composites for different fiber directions. The findings can help ensure the reliability of the FSB mechanical properties in different fiber directions in the design of the secondary barrier and structural analyses.

Analysis of the reliability test data by log.normal probability paper (대수정규확률지를 이용한 수명시험 데이타의 해석방법)

  • 서호복
    • Journal of the korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 1984
  • 측정치의 데이터를 그림으로 나타내면 "종을 거꾸로 엎어놓은 모양(Bell Shaped Curve)"의 정 규분포를 이루는 것은 잘 알려진 사실이다. 그러나 수명시험데이터의 경우는 분포의 형이 찌 그러지게 된다. 수명분포는 Weibull분포에 따르므로 Weibull분포에 의한 해석을 하여야 하는 것이 원칙이나 대수정규분포로 근사시켜서 해석을 하여도 실용상 큰 지장은 없다. 수명시험의 경우는 파괴시험이며 장시간의 시험을 요하므로 적은 시료를 시험하는 것이 일반적이다. 특히 자동차공업에 있어서 수명시험은 중요한 품질특성의 하나이며 자동차의 조립에 쓰이는 수만개 부품의 수명을 예측하는 것은 매우 중요한 일이다. 따라서 이 적은 시료에서 얻어낸 데이터를 이용하여 "어떻게 수명의 예측을 올바르게 할 것인가\ulcorner" 하는 문제, 즉 신뢰성의 추정(Reliability Inference)과 로트의 판정이 중요한 문제인 것이다. 이러한 문제의 한 가지 방법으로서 외국에서 이미 널리 활용되고 있는 대수정규확율지를 이용한 수명데이터의 해석 방법을 소개하고자 한다.이터의 해석 방법을 소개하고자 한다.

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An Accelerated Life Test for Burnout of Tungsten Filament of Incandescent Lamp (텅스텐 백열전구의 필라멘트 단선에 대한 가속수명시험)

  • 이재국;김진우;신재철;김명수
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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    • 2004.07a
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    • pp.129-137
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    • 2004
  • This paper presents an accelerated life test for burnout of tungsten filament of incandescent lamp. From failure analyses of field samples, it is shown that their root causes are local heating or hot sports in the filament caused by tungsten evaporation and wire sag. Finite element analysis is performed to evaluate the effect of vibration and impact for burnout, but any points of stress concentration or structural weakness are not found in the sample. To estimate the burnout life of lamp, an accelerated life test is planned by using quality function deployment and fractional factorial design, where voltage, vibration, and temperature are selected as accelerating variables. We assumed that Weibull lifetime distribution and a generalized linear model of life-stress relationship hold through goodness of fit test and test for common shape parameter of the distribution. Using accelerated life testing software, we estimated the common shape parameter of Weibull distribution, life-stress relationship, and accelerating factor.

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Failure Probability Prediction based on probabilistic and stochastic methods in generating units (확률 통계적 기법을 이용한 발전설비 고장확률 예측)

  • Lee, Sung-Hoon;Lee, Seung-Hyuk;Kim, Jin-O;Cha, Seung-Tae;Kim, Tae-Kyun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2004.11b
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    • pp.69-71
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    • 2004
  • This paper presents a method to predict failure probability related to aging. To calculate failure probability, the Weibull distribution is used due to age-related reliability. The Weibull distribution has shape and scale parameters. Each estimated parameter is obtained from Data Analytic Method (Type II Censoring) which is relatively simpler and faster than the traditional calculation ways for estimating parameters. Also, this paper shows the calculation procedures of a probabilistic failure prediction through a stochastic data analysis. Consequently, the proposed methods would be likely to permit that the new deregulated environment forces utilities to reduce overall costs while maintaining an age-related reliability index.

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A Comparative Study for NHPP Software Reliability Model based on the Shape Parameter of Flexible Weibull Extension Distribution (유연한 와이블 확장분포의 형상모수를 이용한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 관한 비교연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.141-147
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    • 2016
  • NHPP software reliability models for failure analysis can have, in the literature, exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, infinite failures NHPP models that repairing software failure point in time reflects the situation, was presented for comparing property. Commonly used in the field of software reliability based on Flexible Weibull extension distribution software reliability of infinite failures was presented for comparison problem. The result is that a relatively small shaping parameter was effectively. The parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation was conducted and model selection was performed using the mean square error and the coefficient of determination.. In this research, software developers to identify software failure property follows shape parameter, some extent be able to help is considered.

A study for NHPP Software Reliability Model of the Weibull Extension Model Based on Generalized Order Statistics (일반화 통계량에 의존한 와이블 확장모형을 이용한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Tae-Jin
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.339-344
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    • 2015
  • NHPP software reliability models for failure analysis can have, in the literature, exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, infinite failures NHPP models that repairing software failure point in time reflects the situation, was presented for comparing property. Commonly used in the field of software reliability based on Weibull extension distribution software reliability of infinite failures was presented for comparison problem. The result is that a relatively large shape parameter was effectively. The parameters estimation using maximum likelihood estimation was conducted and Model selection was performed using the mean square error and the coefficient of determination. In this research, software developers to identify software failure property follows shape parameter, some extent be able to help is considered.