• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weibull 모델

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Development of a Site Productivity Index and Yield Prediction Model for a Tilia amurensis Stand (피나무의 임지생산력지수 및 임분수확모델 개발)

  • Sora Kim;Jongsu Yim;Sunjung Lee;Jungeun Song;Hyelim Lee;Yeongmo Son
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.112 no.2
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    • pp.209-216
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to use national forest inventory data to develop a forest productivity index and yield prediction model of a Tilia amurensis stand. The site index displaying the forest productivity of the Tilia amurensis stand was developed as a Schumacher model, and the site index classification curve was generated from the model results; its distribution growth in Korea ranged from 8-16. The growth model using age as an independent variable for breast height and height diameter estimation was derived from the Chapman-Richards and Weibull model. The Fitness Indices of the estimation models were 0.32 and 0.11, respectively, which were generally low values, but the estimation-equation residuals were evenly distributed around 0, so we judged that there would be no issue in applying the equation. The stand basal area and site index of the Tilia amurensis stand had the greatest effect on the stand-volume change. These two factors were used to derive the Tilia amurensis stand yield model, and the model's determination coefficient was approximately 94%. After verifying the residual normality of the equation and autocorrelation of the growth factors in the yield model, no particular problems were observed. Finally, the growth and yield models of the Tilia amurensis stand were used to produce the makeshift stand yield table. According to this table, when the Tilia amurensis stand is 70 years old, the estimated stand-volume per hectare would be approximately 208 m3 . It is expected that these study results will be helpful for decision-making of Tilia amurensis stands management, which have high value as a forest resource for honey and timber.

Influences of Forest Management Activity on Growth and Diameter Distribution Models for Larix kaempferi Carriere Stands in South Korea (산림시업이 일본잎갈나무 임분의 생장과 직경분포모형에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Sun Joo;Lee, Young Jin
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.37-47
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    • 2018
  • The objective of this study was to analyze the influences of forest management activity on the diameter distribution of Larix kaempferi Carriere stands in South Korea. We used 232 managed stands data, 47 unmanaged stands data of National Forest Inventory for this study. We employed the Weibull distribution function for estimating diameter based on percentiles and parameter recovery method. The results revealed that the average diameter breast height movements and growth of tree in the managed stands higher than the unmanaged stands according to the scenario: age, site index, and tree density change. The finding shows the percentage of the total amount of large class diameter was also high in the managed stands. The results of this study could be apply for the estimation of multi-products of timbers per diameter classes and stand structure development for Larix kaempferi Carriere stands in South Korea.

Statistical Estimation of Wind Speed in the Gwangyang-Myodo Region (광양 - 묘도 지역의 통계학적인 풍속 추정)

  • Bae, Yong Gwi;Han, Gwan Mun;Lee, Seong Lo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.2A
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    • pp.197-205
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    • 2008
  • In order to estimate mean wind speed in the Gwangyang-Myodo Region, the probability distribution model of extreme values has been used in the statistical analysis of joint distribution probability of daily maximum wind speed and corresponding direction in this paper. For this purpose frequency of daily maximum records at respective stations is inquired into and sample of largest yearly wind speed of sixteen compass direction and non-direction is extracted from daily data of maximum wind speed and appropriate direction of the meteorological observing stations nearby the bridge construction site. These extreme speed records are applied to Gumbel and Weibull distribution model and parameters are estimated through method of moment and method of least squares etc. And also, distribution and parameters are inquired into whether it is fitted through the probability plot correlation coefficient examination. From fitted parameters the largest yearly wind speed of sixteen compass direction and non-direction is extrapolated taking into account factors regarding sample size of data and distance from the bridge construction site according to the appropriate stations.

Height-DBH Growth Models of Major Tree Species in Chungcheong Province (충청지역 주요 수종의 수고-흉고직경 생장모델에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Yeon Ok;Lee, Young Jin;Rho, Dai Kyun;Kim, Sung Ho;Choi, Jung Kee;Lee, Woo Kyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.100 no.1
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 2011
  • Six commonly used non-linear growth functions were fitted to individual tree height-dbh data of eight major tree species measured by the $5^{th}$ National Forest Inventory in Chungcheong province. A total of 2,681 trees were collected from permanent sample plots across Chungcheong province. The available data for each species were randomly splitted into two sets: the majority (90%) was used to estimate model parameters and the remaining data (10%) were reserved to validate the models. The performance of the models was compared and evaluated by $R^2$, RMSE, mean difference (MD), absolute mean difference (AMD) and mean difference(MD) for diameter classes. The combined data (100%) were used for final model fitting. The results showed that these six sigmoidal models were able to capture the height-diameter relationships and fit the data equally well, but produced different asymptote estimates. Sigmoidal growth models such as Chapman-Richards, Weibull functions provided the most satisfactory height predictions. The effect of model performance on stem volume estimation was also investigated. Tree volumes of different species were computed by the Forest Resources Evaluation and Prediction Program using observed range of diameter and the predicted tree total height from the six models. For trees with diameter less than 30 cm, the six height-dbh models produced very similar results for all species, while more differentiation among the models was observed for large-sized trees.

Improving Lifetime Prediction Modeling for SiON Dielectric nMOSFETs with Time-Dependent Dielectric Breakdown Degradation (SiON 절연층 nMOSFET의 Time Dependent Dielectric Breakdown 열화 수명 예측 모델링 개선)

  • Yeohyeok Yun
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.173-179
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    • 2023
  • This paper analyzes the time-dependent dielectric breakdown(TDDB) degradation mechanism for each stress region of Peri devices manufactured by 4th generation VNAND process, and presents a complementary lifetime prediction model that improves speed and accuracy in a wider reliability evaluation region compared to the conventional model presented. SiON dielectric nMOSFETs were measured 10 times each under 5 constant voltage stress(CVS) conditions. The analysis of stress-induced leakage current(SILC) confirmed the significance of the field-based degradation mechanism in the low electric field region and the current-based degradation mechanism in the high field region. Time-to-failure(TF) was extracted from Weibull distribution to ascertain the lifetime prediction limitations of the conventional E-model and 1/E-model, and a parallel complementary model including both electric field and current based degradation mechanisms was proposed by extracting and combining the thermal bond breakage rate constant(k) of each model. Finally, when predicting the lifetime of the measured TDDB data, the proposed complementary model predicts lifetime faster and more accurately, even in the wider electric field region, compared to the conventional E-model and 1/E-model.

Accelerated Life Test Using Structural Analysis of a Helicopter Accumulator (헬기용 축압기의 구조해석에 의한 가속 수명시험)

  • Lee, Geon-Hui;Hur, Jang-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.67-72
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    • 2020
  • Life tests are essential in reducing the catastrophic damage caused by the accidents of large machinery such as aircraft and ships. However, life tests are challenging to implement due to the high costs and time required to test the life of large machinery parts. Therefore, it is advantageous and convenient to apply accelerated life test techniques for key components to reduce costs and time. In fact, extensive research has already been conducted on these techniques. However, recently, there have been cases in which an experimental value was applied to the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution used in the reliability test, but the test time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, in this paper, the shape parameters are estimated from the probability density function of the Weibull distribution for the analysis of an accelerated life test for bladder accumulators, which are core components of military helicopters. The test time was derived based on the number of samples and confidence level by substituting it into the test time equation. Next, the accelerated life test time was calculated using the steady-state test time with an acceleration factor obtained from the Arrhenius model. The steady-state life test required approximately 15,000 H, whereas the accelerated life test time for one sample at 100 ℃ was 34% shorter than that of the steady-state life test.

Analysis of the Partial Discharge Pattern in XLPE Insulators using Distribution Statistical Models (분포통계모델에 의한 가교폴리에틸렌 절연체의 부분방전 패턴해석)

  • Kim Tag-Yong;Park Hee-Doo;Cho Kyung-Soon;Park Ha-Yong;Hong Jin-Woong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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    • v.19 no.10
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    • pp.947-952
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    • 2006
  • It has been confirmed that the inner defect of insulator and the perfect diagnosis for aging are closely related to safe electric power transmission system and that the detection of accident and diagnosis technique turn out to be very important issues. But perfect diagnosis is difficult because discharge pattern is irregular. Thus, we investigated discharge pattern using the new distribution statistical models with cross-inked polyethylene(XLPE) specimens. Voltage was applied to power frequency by step method, and calibration of discharge was set to 50 pC. After the voltage was applied, it measured the discharge occurring during 10s. We investigated discharge pattern using the K-means analysis and Weibull function. We also investigated variation of centroid and shape parameter due to variation of voltage. As a result of analyzing K-means, it was confirmed that cluster including many object numbers was formed by the presence of void. And result of Weibull distribution, it was confirmed that shape parameter of discharge varied from 1.28 to 1.62 in no void specimens, and that shape parameter of discharge number varied from 1.28 to 1.62. In the void, shape parameter of discharge varied from 5.66 to 6.43, and shape parameter of discharge number varied from 5.05 to 5.08.

열전모듈의 가속수명시험과 고장분석을 통한 신뢰도 예측

  • 최형석;이태원;이영호;이명현;서원선
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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    • 2004.07a
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    • pp.123-128
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    • 2004
  • 본 논문에서는 가속 수명 시험을 통하여 열전소자의 수명 분포, 모수 등을 규명하였으며 고장 분석을 통하여 열전 소자의 수명 증가를 위한 대책 방안을 논의하였다. 가속 수명 시험 결과 열전 소자는 형상 모수 3,6인 Weibull 분포를 따름을 알 수 있었다. 열전 소자가 반도체 부품임에도 불구하고 형상 모수가 큰 이유는 반복 Bending에 의한 피로 파괴가 발생하기 때문임을 고장 분석을 통하여 규명하였다. 위의 고장 메커니즘을 설명할 수 있는 가속 모델식은 Coffin-Manson식으로 설명되어 질 수 있으며 가속수명시험 결과 재료 상수는 1.8임을 알 수 있었다.

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A Micromechanics-based Elastic Model for Particle-Reinforced Composites Containing Slightly Weakened Interfaces (미소한 손상경계면을 갖는 입자강화 복합재료의 미세역학 탄성 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Haeng-Ki;Pyo, Suk-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2007.04a
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    • pp.441-444
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    • 2007
  • This paper presents a part of micormechanics-based elastic modeling (Lee and Pyo, 2007) of particle-reinforced composites containing slightly weakened interfaces. The Eshelby's tensor for a damaged ellipsoidal inclusion to model particles with slightly weakened interfaces is incorporated into a micormechanical formulation by Ju and Chen (1994). A damage model in accordance with the Weibull's probabilistic function is also developed to simulate the progression of weakened interface in the composites.

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Finite Element Analysis of Deformation Behavior During ECAP for an Aluminum Alloy Composite Model containing a SiC Particle and Porosities (강화상과 기공이 포함된 금속기지 복합재 모델의 ECAP 거동에 대한 유한요소해석)

  • Lee, Sung-Chul;Han, Sang-Yul;Kim, Ki-Tae;Hwang, Sang-Moo;Huh, Lyun-Min;Chung, Hyung-Sik
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.739-746
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    • 2004
  • The plastic deformation behavior of an aluminum alloy containing a particle and porosities was investigated at room temperature during equal channel angular pressing (ECAP). Finite element analysis by using ABAQUS shows that ECAP is a useful tool for eliminating residual porosity in the specimen, and more effective under friction condition. The simulation, however, shows considerably low density distributions for matrix near a particle at which many defects may occur during severe deformation. Finite element results of effective strains and deformed shapes for matrix with a particle were compared with theoretical calculations under simple shear stress. Also, based on the distribution of the maximum principal stress in the specimen, Weibull fracture probability was obtained for particle sizes and particle-coating layer materials. The probability was useful to predict the trend of more susceptible failure of a brittle coating layer than a particle without an interphase in metal matrix composites.