• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weather risk

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Estimation of mean annual extreme minimum temperature raster and predicting the potential distribution for Ipomoea triloba using Proto3 model in the Korean peninsula (격자형 한반도 최저극값온도 예측 및 Proto3를 활용한 별나팔꽃 (Ipomoea triloba)의 서식적합지 예측)

  • Lee, Yong Ho;Choi, Tae Yang;Lee, Ga Eun;Na, Chea Sun;Hong, Sun Hee;Lee, Do-Hun;Oh, Young Ju
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.759-768
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    • 2019
  • This study was conducted to estimate the mean annual extreme minimum temperature raster and predict the potential distribution of the invasive plant, Ipomoea triloba, on the Korean peninsula. We collected annual extreme minimum temperature and mean coldest month minimum temperature data from 129 weather stations on the Korean peninsula from 1990-2019 and used this data to create a linear regression model. The min temperature of the coldest month raster from Worldclim V2 were used to estimate a 30 second spatial resolution, mean annual extreme minimum temperature raster of the Korean peninsula using a regression model. We created three climatic rasters of the Korean peninsula for use with the Proto3 species distribution model and input the estimated mean annual extreme minimum temperature raster, a Köppen-Geiger climate class raster from Beck et al. (2018), and we also used the mean annual precipitation from Worldclim V2. The potential distribution of I. triloba was estimated using the Proto3 model with 117 occurrence points. As a result, the estimated area for a potential distribution of I. triloba was found to be 50.7% (111,969 ㎢) of the Korean peninsula.

Functional Requirements to Develop the Marine Navigation Supporting System for Northern Sea Route (북극해 안전운항 지원시스템 구축을 위한 기능적 요구조건 도출)

  • Hong, Sung Chul;Kim, Sun Hwa;Yang, Chan Su
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2014
  • International attention on the Northern Sea Route has been increased as the decreased sea-ice extents in Northern Sea raise the possibility to develop new sea routes and natural resources. However, to protect ships' safety and pristine environments in polar waters, International Maritime Organization(IMO) has been developing the Polar Code to regulate polar shipping. The marine navigation supporting system is essential for ships traveling long distance in the Northern Sea as they are affected by ocean weather and sea-ice. Therefore, to cope with the IMO Polar Code, this research proposes the functional requirements to develop the marine navigation supporting system for the Northern Sea Route. The functional requirements derived from the IMO Polar code consist of arctic voyage risk map, arctic voyage planning and MSI(Marine Safety Information) methods, based on which the navigation supporting system is able to provide dynamic and safe-economical sea route service using the sea-ice observation and prediction technologies. Also, a requirement of the system application is derived to apply the marine navigation supporting system for authorizing ships operating in the Northern Sea. To reflect the proposed system in the Polar Code, continual international exchange and policy proposals are necessary along with the development of sea-ice observation and prediction technologies.

A Development of Active Monitoring and Approach Alarm System for Marine Buoy Protection and Ship Accident Prevention based on Trail Cameras and AIS (해상 부이 보호 및 선박 사고 예방을 위한 트레일 카메라-AIS 연계형 능동감시 및 접근경보 시스템 개발)

  • Hwang, Hun-Gyu;Kim, Bae-Sung;Kim, Hyen-Woo;Gang, Yong-Soo;Kim, Dae-Han
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.22 no.7
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    • pp.1021-1029
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    • 2018
  • The marine buoys are operated in various domains, which are navigation route and danger maker, weather and environment monitoring, military strategical element, etc. If the marine buoy is damaged, there consumes many cost and time for recovery or replacement, because of severe environmental condition, and causes a risk possibility of secondary accident. In this paper, we developed an active monitoring and approach alarm providing system using trail cameras and AIS for protection for the marine buoys. To do this, we analyzed existing researches and similar systems, extracted requirements for enhancement, and designed the system architecture that applied the enhanced elements. The main considerations of system enhancement are: integration of AIS and trail cameras, adopting of phased alarm technique by approaching ships, applying of selective communication module, conducting the image processing of ships for providing alarm, and applying thermal cameras. After that, we developed the system using designed architecture and verified effectiveness of the system based on laboratory or field-level tests.

Measure Improvement on Vulnerable Area based on Climate Change Impact on Agriculture Infrastructure (기후변화에 따른 농업생산기반시설 영향분석을 통한 정책추진 방안 연구)

  • Jeong, Kyung-Hun;Song, Suk-Ho;Jung, Hyoung-Mo;Oh, Seung-Heon;Kim, Soo-Jin;Lim, Se-Yun;Joo, Dong-Hyuk;Hwang, Syewoon;Jang, Min-Won;Bae, Seung-Jong;Yoo, Seung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2020
  • This study was conducted to analyse climate change impact on agriculture infrastructure and propose improved measures on vulnerable areas. Recently, Climate change has resulted in damaging effects on agricultural fields through increases in drought intensity and flood risk. It is expected that this impact will increase over time. This study shows that Gyeong-gi and Chung-nam provinces are affected by drought and Gyeong-buk and Gyeong-nam provinces are affected by heavy rain. However, there are also regional variations within each province. Agricultural infrastructure affected by drought may also be affected by heavy rain. Increased damages on the infrastructure due to increased extreme weather events require preventive measures especially in vulnerable areas. In order to minimize the damage by climate change, we need to introduce a reform in the system which selects project region by analysing climate change impacts. Furthermore, impact assessment of climate change from projects such as 'water supply diversification', 'flooded farmland improvement', and 'irrigation facility reinforcement' also need to be adopted to improve the measures. The results of this study are expected to provide a foundation for establishing measures on coping with climate change in the agricultural sector.

Identification of Combinatorial Factors Affecting Fatal Accidents in Small Construction Sites: Association Rule Analysis (연관규칙 기반 소규모 건설현장 사망재해 다중요인 분석)

  • Lee, Gangho;Lee, Chansik;Koo, Choogwan;Kim, Tae Wan
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.90-99
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    • 2020
  • The construction industry is suffering from a large number of fatal accidents. As many field works are being conducted in a dangerous condition such as working at height and adverse weather, they are always exposed to safety accidents with high frequency and severity compared to other industries. Such risk is even larger in small construction sites, but studies that focus on combinatorial factors leading to fatal accidents in small construction sites are lacking. Thus, in order to reduce the fatal accidents in the construction industry, this study analyzed 1,438 occupational death accidents cases in small construction sites and, then, conducted the association rule analysis to extract ten combinatorial factors that frequently led to fatal accidents in small construction sites. Based on the extracted association rules, this study also discussed possible countermeasures to reduce the fatal accidents. The results were explained to experts, who agreed on the results of the study. This study contributes to the construction safety management theory by providing a detailed analysis of fatal accidents in small construction sites that can be used for developing and deploying safety policies and educations for small construction site workers.

A Study on the Urban Inundation Flooding Forecasting According to the Water Level Conditions (내수위 조건에 따른 도시내수침수 예보에 관한 연구)

  • Choo, Tai-ho;Choo, Yean-moon;Jeon, Hae-seong;Gwon, Chang-heon;Lee, Jae-gyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.545-550
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    • 2019
  • The frequency of natural disasters and the scale of damage are increasing due to the abnormal weather phenomenon occurring all over the world. As a result, as the hydrological aspect of the urban watershed changes, the increase in impervious area leads to serious domestic flood damage due to increased rainfall. In order to minimize the damage of life and property, domestic flooding prediction system is needed. In this study, we developed a flood nomogram capable of predicting flooding only by rainfall intensity and duration. This study suggests a method to set the internal water immersion alarm criterion by analyzing the characteristics of the flooding damage in the flooded area in the metropolitan area where flooding is highly possible and the risk of flooding is high. In addition, based on the manhole and the pipe, the water level was set as follows under the four conditions. 1) When manhole overflows, 2) when manhole is full, 3) when 70% of the pipe is reached, and 4) when 60% of the pipe is reached. Therefore, it can be used as a criterion and a predictive measure to cope with the pre-preparation before the flooding starts, through the rainfall that causes the flooding and the flooding damage.

Estimation of Significant Wave Heights from X-Band Radar Using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 X-Band 레이다 유의파고 추정)

  • Park, Jaeseong;Ahn, Kyungmo;Oh, Chanyeong;Chang, Yeon S.
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.561-568
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    • 2020
  • Wave measurements using X-band radar have many advantages compared to other wave gauges including wave-rider buoy, P-u-v gauge and Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP), etc.. For example, radar system has no risk of loss/damage in bad weather conditions, low maintenance cost, and provides spatial distribution of waves from deep to shallow water. This paper presents new methods for estimating significant wave heights of X-band marine radar images using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). We compared the time series of estimated significant wave heights (Hs) using various estimation methods, such as signal-to-noise ratio (${\sqrt{SNR}}$), both and ${\sqrt{SNR}}$ the peak period (TP), and ANN with 3 parameters (${\sqrt{SNR}}$, TP, and Rval > k). The estimated significant wave heights of the X-band images were compared with wave measurement using ADCP(AWC: Acoustic Wave and Current Profiler) at Hujeong Beach, Uljin, Korea. Estimation of Hs using ANN with 3 parameters (${\sqrt{SNR}}$, TP, and Rval > k) yields best result.

A Study on Changes in the Characteristics of Typhoons around the Korean Peninsula for Coastal Disaster Prevention (해안 방재를 위한 한반도의 태풍 특성 변화 연구)

  • Young Hyun, Park
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.325-334
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    • 2022
  • It has been more than 30 years since the term climate change began to become popular, but recently, rapid accelerated phenomena are appearing in the form of extreme weather all over the world. It is showing a distinctly different phenomenon from previous years, with heavy rain falling in the Death Valley desert in the U.S., and temperatures rising more than 40 degrees in Europe. In the Korean Peninsula, super typhoons with very strong wind speeds have become a major disaster risk for many years, and the supply of more energy due to the rise in sea temperature increases the possibility of super typhoons, requiring a proactive response. Unlike the method using numerical analysis, this study analyzed past typhoon data to study changes in typhoon characteristics for coastal disaster prevention. Existing studies have targeted all typhoons that have occurred, but in this study, a specific area was set up in the southern ocean of the Korean Peninsula and then a study was conducted. The subjects of the study were typhoons that occurred over the past 40 years from 1980 to the present, and it was confirmed that the maximum wind speed of typhoons affecting the Korean Peninsula increased slightly. The wind speed of typhoons in the specific area is about 80% of the maximum wind speed in their lifetime, and a correlation with ENSO could not be confirmed.

Water Level Prediction on the Golok River Utilizing Machine Learning Technique to Evaluate Flood Situations

  • Pheeranat Dornpunya;Watanasak Supaking;Hanisah Musor;Oom Thaisawasdi;Wasukree Sae-tia;Theethut Khwankeerati;Watcharaporn Soyjumpa
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.31-31
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    • 2023
  • During December 2022, the northeast monsoon, which dominates the south and the Gulf of Thailand, had significant rainfall that impacted the lower southern region, causing flash floods, landslides, blustery winds, and the river exceeding its bank. The Golok River, located in Narathiwat, divides the border between Thailand and Malaysia was also affected by rainfall. In flood management, instruments for measuring precipitation and water level have become important for assessing and forecasting the trend of situations and areas of risk. However, such regions are international borders, so the installed measuring telemetry system cannot measure the rainfall and water level of the entire area. This study aims to predict 72 hours of water level and evaluate the situation as information to support the government in making water management decisions, publicizing them to relevant agencies, and warning citizens during crisis events. This research is applied to machine learning (ML) for water level prediction of the Golok River, Lan Tu Bridge area, Sungai Golok Subdistrict, Su-ngai Golok District, Narathiwat Province, which is one of the major monitored rivers. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm, a tree-based ensemble machine learning algorithm, was exploited to predict hourly water levels through the R programming language. Model training and testing were carried out utilizing observed hourly rainfall from the STH010 station and hourly water level data from the X.119A station between 2020 and 2022 as main prediction inputs. Furthermore, this model applies hourly spatial rainfall forecasting data from Weather Research and Forecasting and Regional Ocean Model System models (WRF-ROMs) provided by Hydro-Informatics Institute (HII) as input, allowing the model to predict the hourly water level in the Golok River. The evaluation of the predicted performances using the statistical performance metrics, delivering an R-square of 0.96 can validate the results as robust forecasting outcomes. The result shows that the predicted water level at the X.119A telemetry station (Golok River) is in a steady decline, which relates to the input data of predicted 72-hour rainfall from WRF-ROMs having decreased. In short, the relationship between input and result can be used to evaluate flood situations. Here, the data is contributed to the Operational support to the Special Water Resources Management Operation Center in Southern Thailand for flood preparedness and response to make intelligent decisions on water management during crisis occurrences, as well as to be prepared and prevent loss and harm to citizens.

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A Study on the Combustion Characteristics of the Crown of Pine Trees in the Drying Season (건조기 소나무 수관부 부위별 연소특성에 관한 연구)

  • Hyuk Kwon;Jong Ho Lee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 2023
  • Pine trees, which account for 23% of the forested area of the Republic of Korea, are highly vulnerable to fire in comparison to broad-leaved trees due to the presence of consistent water tube sections throughout the year and resin that is composed of approximately 20% oil. In addition, the pattern of forest fires is determined by weather, topographic conditions, and fluctuation in moisture content. Therefore, when fire breaks out in pine tree forests during the dry season (January to March), it is difficult to extinguish, and it quickly spreads. In this study, the combustion characteristics of pine needles, pine cones, and pine branches in the water tube sections of living pine trees were compared and analyzed in accordance with the moisture content as per the ISO 5660-1. The monthly moisture content was analyzed from January to March, and it was found to be the lowest in March, with 53.6% for pine needles, 51.9% for pine branches, and 10.9% for pine cones. In particular, pine cones were more vulnerable to fire as compared to pine needles and pine branches because their moisture content was more than five times lower than that of pine needles and branches. The ignition time, which affects the speed of flame propagation, was the most rapid in March, and the fastest ignition time was for pine cones, at 19 seconds, followed by 34 seconds for pine needles, and 256 seconds for pine branches. The pine branches were the last to be ignited due to the effect of density, according to the thickness and specific gravity of the specimen. The peak heat release rate, which is a measurable index of fire intensity, was analyzed for pine cones and found to be 184.28 kW/m2 , while the mean effective heat of combustion was 19.79 MJ/kg, and the total heat release rate was 39.7 MJ/m2 , and these values were higher than those of pine branches and pine needles. Thus, we determined that the flame propagation speed and fire intensity according to the moisture content can be used to evaluate the risk of fire to the water tube section of pine trees. It is suggested that because of the combustion characteristics of the pine cone in March, that is when the forest is most vulnerable to fires.