• Title/Summary/Keyword: Wave statistics

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An analysis of the waning effect of COVID-19 vaccinations

  • Bogyeom Lee;Hanbyul Song;Catherine Apio;Kyulhee Han;Jiwon Park;Zhe Liu;Hu Xuwen;Taesung Park
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.50.1-50.9
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    • 2023
  • Vaccine development is one of the key efforts to control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, it has become apparent that the immunity acquired through vaccination is not permanent, known as the waning effect. Therefore, monitoring the proportion of the population with immunity is essential to improve the forecasting of future waves of the pandemic. Despite this, the impact of the waning effect on forecasting accuracies has not been extensively studied. We proposed a method for the estimation of the effective immunity (EI) rate which represents the waning effect by integrating the second and booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines. The EI rate, with different periods to the onset of the waning effect, was incorporated into three statistical models and two machine learning models. Stringency Index, omicron variant BA.5 rate (BA.5 rate), booster shot rate (BSR), and the EI rate were used as covariates and the best covariate combination was selected using prediction error. Among the prediction results, Generalized Additive Model showed the best improvement (decreasing 86% test error) with the EI rate. Furthermore, we confirmed that South Korea's decision to recommend booster shots after 90 days is reasonable since the waning effect onsets 90 days after the last dose of vaccine which improves the prediction of confirmed cases and deaths. Substituting BSR with EI rate in statistical models not only results in better predictions but also makes it possible to forecast a potential wave and help the local community react proactively to a rapid increase in confirmed cases.

The Attitude of Hair Cut, Permanent Wave, Coloring by Age in Women's Customer (미용실 여성고객의 연령에 따른 헤어 컷, 퍼머넌트, 염색에 대한 태도)

  • Choi, Soo-Jung;Park, Hye-Won
    • Journal of Fashion Business
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.28-45
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to diagnose actual condition of preference of hair-styling, hair-styling techniques, management, grasping a consumer's consciousness, etc with women living in a city. The survey was gotten to a feminine customer who visited the ten of beauty-shops in shopping center. And statistical data about the actual condition of hair-styling preference realities, hair-styling method and style management was entered into the SPSS statistics analysis system. In brief, be as follows by the results of study. There showed significant difference that noted in hair-style information and basis alternative a beauty salon, there were able to know people whose age is from 20's to 40's got mainly an influence of public media very much and from 40's to 50's got mainly an influence of people around them. Basis alternative of a beauty salon showed significant difference to follow age categories. It appeared that introducing from people around them have a effect on the 20's and 30's, and 40's got an influence of convenience of traffic, and 50's got mainly the shortest distance. In an attitude toward a hair style, especially toward hair cut, a case to do hair cut was most a lot of in own selections, and its result was independent of age categories. The reason that wants to give a chance was most a lot of thinking without an age. Preference length of hair cut showed a significant difference according to age. In permanent section, own selections appeared most regardless of age. And in the permanent motive, also, to have a change appeared most regardless of age. And people had a preference natural to role up to setting regardless of age in permanent wave. In hair color section, women whose age is 20's, 30's, 40's had a motive for a change, on the other hand, 50's and their senior had a motive for a gray hair. Women of all over the age almost knew a fashion color, and they had a preference brown color. In a preference way along a hair color kind, there was a significant difference according to age, also. 20's and 30's did mainly 'semi-permanent coating' and 40's and 50's did mainly 'permanent hair color'. In a attitude about a hair-style management, the more age is young, the more a period is long term. And the more age is old, the more the outlay for price of cut is expensive. But, on the contrary, permanent price showed that the more age is young, the more the outlay for price of permanent is expensive. In hair color, the more age is old, the more a period is short and the more price is low.

The Effects of Cell-Phone Dependency of Adolescents: Moderated Analysis of Self-Esteem (청소년의 휴대폰 의존에 미치는 영향: 자존감의 조절효과 검정)

  • Shim, Hyun-Jin;Rhee, Hyun-Sill
    • The Korean Journal of Health Service Management
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.117-127
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    • 2017
  • Objectives : This study aimed to identify factors of adolescents' cell-phone dependency using Agnew's General Strain Theory (GST) and the perspective of adolescents' micro-systems. A second aim was to verify the moderating effect of self-esteem. Methods : In total, 2,046 students who participated in a study on KCTPS mid. 1 panel 3 Wave by the National Youth Policy Institute were examined in this research. Data were analyzed through descriptive statistics, factor analysis, reliability tests, and hierarchical linear regression using SPSS Ver. 22.0. Results : The strain factors had a positive effect on adolescents' depression, and depression had a positive effect on cell-phone dependency. In addition, self-esteem had a negative moderating effect between depression and cell-phone dependency. Conclusions : Factors of cell-phone dependency were identified. The findings of the study indicate that an intervention is required to lower strain and depression and to enhance self-esteem among adolescents.

Factors Influencing Adult Media Engagement of Adolescents from Micro-systemic Perspective: Mediation Analysis of Cell-Phone Dependency (미시체계적관점에서의 청소년 성인매체 몰입에 미치는 영향요인: 휴대폰 의존의 매개효과 검정)

  • Shim, Hyun-Jin;Lee, Hee-Myung;Rhee, Hyun-Sill
    • Journal of the Korean Society of School Health
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to find the factors influencing adolescents' adult media engagement. The study is based on Agnew's General Strain Theory (GST) and a micro-systemic perspective. Methods: The study examined 479 middle school freshmen who participated in the fourth wave of the Korean Children & Youth Panel Survey (KCYPS) conducted by National Youth Policy Institute. Data were analyzed through descriptive statistics, factor analysis, and reliability analysis using SPSS 22.0 Ver. Also, hypothesis testing was performed via covariance-based structure equation modeling (CB-SEM) using Amos 21.0 Ver. Results: Strain factors had positive effects on adolescent depression, and depression had a positive effect on adult media engagement. Also, cell-phone dependency had a positive mediation effect between depression and adult media engagement. Conclusion: The study's result identified the factors affecting adult media engagement. Therefore, we suggest intervention programs considering adolescents' strains, depression and cell-phone dependency to improve their health.

Probabilistic Prediction of Stability of Ship by Risk Based Approach

  • Long, Zhan-Jun;Lee, Seung-Keon;Lee, Sung-Jong;Jeong, Jae-Hun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.255-261
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    • 2009
  • Prediction of the stability for ships is very complex in reality. In this paper, risk based approach is applied to predict the probability of capsize for a certified ship, which is effected by the forces of sea especially the wave loading Safety assessment and risk analysis process are also applied for the probabilistic prediction of stability for ships. The probability of shipsencountering different waves at sea is calculated by the existed statistics data and risk based models. Finally, ship capsizing probability is calculated according to single degree of freedom(SDF) rolling differential equation and basin erosion theory of nonlinear dynamics. Calculation results show that the survival probabilities of ship excited by the forces of the seas, especially in the beam seas status, can be predicted by the risk based method.

Distributed Processing Method of Hotspot Spatial Analysis Based on Hadoop and Spark (하둡 및 Spark 기반 공간 통계 핫스팟 분석의 분산처리 방안 연구)

  • Kim, Changsoo;Lee, Joosub;Hwang, KyuMoon;Sung, Hyojin
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.99-105
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    • 2018
  • One of the spatial statistical analysis, hotspot analysis is one of easy method of see spatial patterns. It is based on the concept that "Adjacent ones are more relevant than those that are far away". However, in hotspot analysis is spatial adjacency must be considered, Therefore, distributed processing is not easy. In this paper, we proposed a distributed algorithm design for hotspot spatial analysis. Its performance was compared to standalone system and Hadoop, Spark based processing. As a result, it is compare to standalone system, Performance improvement rate of Hadoop at 625.89% and Spark at 870.14%. Furthermore, performance improvement rate is high at Spark processing than Hadoop at as more large data set.

Ratemaking based on the claim size distribution (손해액 분포 결정에 따른 보험료 산출)

  • 차재형;이재원
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.247-263
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    • 2000
  • Natural catastrophe is defined as all damages caused by natural phenomenon such as typhoon, flood, inundation, windstorm, tidal wave, tremendous snowfall, drought,earthquake and to on It is classified at a huge hazard because of the large severity ofdamage In Korea, Fire Insurance policy includet the coverage clauses and rates of naturalcatastrophe like'Flood , Inundation Coverage Clause'and'Earthquake Coverage Clause'These clauses and rates do not reflect accurate risk of flood, inundation and earthauakein Korea. because those are tariff from other countries Hence, we determine the claimsize distributions and the rates for typhoon coverage and flood-inundation coverage byusing statistical methods which have not been used so far in Korean non-life insurance,and calculate appropriate premium for policyholder's interest

A Mediating Effect of Peer Relations on the Association between Parental Achievement-Oriented Expectation and Depression among High School Students (부모의 성취지향적 기대와 고등학생의 우울 간 관계에서 교우 관계의 매개효과)

  • Shin, Youngmi;Chin, Meejung
    • Human Ecology Research
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    • v.58 no.2
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    • pp.229-238
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    • 2020
  • This study examined the effect of parental achievement-oriented expectation on high school students' depression and verified the mediating effect of peer relations on relations. Data were derived from the 7th wave (2016) of Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey (KCYPS), and 1,979 high school students were included. Descriptive statistics analysis, correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, and a Sobel test were conducted using STATA. The main results were as follows. First, male adolescents perceived higher parental achievement-oriented expectation, lower peer relations, but lower depression than female adolescents. Second, parental achievement-oriented expectation was negatively related to adolescent peer relations but positively related to adolescent depression. This implies that adolescents whose parents have a higher level of achievement-oriented expectation have lower level of peer relations and higher level of depression. Third, adolescents' peer relations significantly mediated the relation between parental achievement-oriented expectation and high school students' depression. The result of Sobel test supported the significance of the mediating effect. The results highlighted a negative impact of parental achievement-oriented expectation on adolescents' mental health, and addressed how parental achievement-oriented expectation affects adolescents' depression by showing an important mechanism of peer relations, which was missed in previous research.

Interaction Effects of Social Determinants Affecting School-Aged Children's Health (학령기 아동 건강에 대한 사회적 결정요인의 상호작용 효과)

  • Kim, Mi Young;Park, Mee Sok
    • Human Ecology Research
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.515-527
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    • 2016
  • This study investigated social determinants and their interaction effects on the health of school-aged children in diverse environmental factors pertaining to the individual, family, and peers from an ecological systematic perspective. Data were drawn from the first wave of the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey (KCYPS) developed by the National Youth Policy Institute and conducted in 2010. Data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, Cronbach ${\alpha}$, correlation, and hierarchical regression analysis using SPSS ver. 18. The results from this study showed that sex and age were related to the health of school-aged children, as social determinants. Self-rated levels of the health of boys and younger children were more positive than girls and older children; in addition, levels of self-resilience, satisfaction of peer relation, and parenting rearing attitude were found to have a positive impact on self-rated levels of the health of school-aged children as protective factors. Especially, according to the result of interaction analysis between factors, self-resilience, and parenting rearing attitude were moderators of the effects on between sex and household income and self-rated level of the health of school-aged children respectively. The findings from this study suggested the need to expand the social intervention range to improve school-aged children's health.

The Effects of Parenting Stress of Mothers, Warm Parenting Behaviors and Controlling Parenting Behaviors on Children's Social Competence (어머니의 양육스트레스, 온정적 양육행동 및 통제적 양육행동이 유아의 사회적 유능감에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Nam-Shim;Song, Seung-Min;Um, Hee-Kyung
    • Korean Journal of Childcare and Education
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.161-178
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    • 2020
  • Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of parenting stress of mothers, warm parenting behaviors and controlling parenting behaviors on children's social competence. Methods: A total of 1515 mothers of young children(780 boys, 735 girls), who had participated in wave 7 of the Panel Study on Korean Children(PSKC), answered the questionnaires. The questionnaires included items about mothers' parenting stress, parenting behaviors, and their children's social competence. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson's correlation and structural equation models using SPSS 23 and AMOS 22. Results: First, there was a significantly negative correlation between mothers' parenting stress and children's social competence. Also, there was a significantly positive correlation between mothers' warm parenting behaviors and controlling parenting behavior and children's social competence. Second, mothers' parenting stress showed a direct negative effect on children's social competence. Third, mothers' warm parenting behaviors and controlling parenting behaviors showed partial mediating roles in the relationship between mothers' parenting stress and children's social competence. Conclusion/Implications: In order to develop positive social competence of children, programs and social support are needed to reduce mothers'parenting stress and induce positive parenting behaviors.