• Title/Summary/Keyword: Water demand prediction

Search Result 99, Processing Time 0.026 seconds

Demand and Supply Forecast of Milk and the Consumer's Attitude for Milk Purchase (우유수급예측(牛乳需給豫測)과 소비자(消費者)의 우유구매태도(牛乳購買態度))

  • Park, Chong Soo;Ra, Chung Hee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
    • /
    • v.16 no.1
    • /
    • pp.71-83
    • /
    • 1989
  • The purpose of this research are to forecast the demand and supply of milk in Korea, and to obtain information for attitudes affecting milk consumption, which is necessary to make a plan for increasing milk consumption in Korea. The estimation of the milk demand and production was made by the multiplicative decomposition method and the statistical function. Data on consumer were collected from 737 students who were attending primary school, middle school and university in Daejeon during the period of July 11 to July 21, 1988. The results obtained are as follows; 1. The prediction results showed that the production for milk will over supply 21,900 tons in 1,990, 70,800 tons in 1,995 by the multiplicative decomposition method and 45,400 tons in 1990, -51,500 tons in 1995 by the statistical function. 2. It was found that almost all the students awared milk as essential food-stuff of common food stuff for the Koreans. 3. Quite a few students were apt to believe that milk processors added water into fluid milk. 4. Most students showed obtaining information about the nutritional value of milk by school education and advertising of TV, Radio, and Printed media. 5. However, it was found that the advertising by TV, Radio, and Printed media did hardly give to consumers influences on the choice of a particular milk brand. Accordingly, the conclusions are as follows; 1. Need to provide consumers with well planned education programs on the nutritional value of milk. 2. Heavy brand advertising for fluid milk may mislead the understanding of consumer, since city milk is not much differentiated in Korea. Therefore the milk processors should put more efforts in generic milk promotion by reducing brand advertizement. 3. The milk processors should provide major portion of financing for generic milk promotion program.

  • PDF

A Prediction Model for Removal of Non-point Source Pollutant Considering Clogging Effect of Sand Filter Layers for Rainwater Recycling (빗물 재활용을 위한 모래 정화층의 폐색특성을 고려한 비점오염원 제거 예측 모델 연구)

  • Ahn, Jaeyoon;Lee, Dongseop;Han, Shinin;Jung, Youngwook;Choi, Hangseok
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.30 no.6
    • /
    • pp.23-39
    • /
    • 2014
  • An artificial rainwater reservoir installed in urban areas for recycling rainwater is an eco-friendly facility for reducing storm water effluence. However, in order to recycle the rainwater directly, the artificial rainwater reservoir requires an auxiliary system that can remove non-point source pollutants included in the initial rainfall of urban area. Therefore, the conventional soil filtration technology is adopted to capture non-point source pollutants in an economical and efficient way in the purification system of artificial rainwater reservoirs. In order to satisfy such a demand, clogging characteristics of the sand filter layers with different grain-size distributions were studied with real non-point source pollutants. For this, a series of lab-scale chamber tests were conducted to make a prediction model for removal of non-point source pollutants, based on the clogging theory. The laboratory chamber experiments were carried out by permeating two types of artificially contaminated water through five different types of sand filter layers with different grain-size distributions. The two artificial contaminated waters were made by fine marine-clay particles and real non-point source pollutants collected from motorcar roads of Seoul, Korea. In the laboratory chamber experiments, the concentrations of the artificial contaminated water were measured in terms of TSS (Total Suspended Solids) and COD (Chemical Oxygen Demand) and compared with each other to evaluate the performance of sand filter layers. In addition, the accumulated weight of pollutant particles clogged in the sand filter layers was estimated. This paper suggests a prediction model for removal of non-point source pollutants with theoretical consideration of the physical characteristics such as the grain-size distribution and composition, and change in the hydraulic conductivity and porosity of sand filter layers. The lumped parameter ${\theta}$ related with the clogging property was estimated by comparing the accumulated weight of pollutant particles obtained from the laboratory chamber experiments and calculated from the prediction model based on the clogging theory. It is found that the lumped parameter ${\theta}$ has a significant influence on the amount of the pollutant particles clogged in the pores of sand filter layers. In conclusion, according to the clogging prediction model, a double-sand-filter layer consisting of two separate layers: the upper sand-filter layer with the effective particle size of 1.49 mm and the lower sand-filter layer with the effective particle size of 0.93 mm, is proposed as the optimum system for removing non-point source pollutants in the field-sized artificial rainwater reservoir.

Prediction of Groundwater Level in Chojung Area (초정지역의 지하수 유동해석)

  • 안상도;김경호;정영훈
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
    • /
    • v.7 no.3
    • /
    • pp.133-140
    • /
    • 2000
  • The area of Chojung is famous for its mineral water quality. Because of this reason, massive groundwater development was induced in the area. As a result of excessive pumping. the depletion of the groundwater resources is expected seriously. This study was conducted to analyse groundwater flow in Chojung using a numerical model. Simulation results show the groundwater level change slowly in the mountain area but steep groundwater drawdown occurred in the pumping area in the downstream. This steep groundwater drawdown is due to excessive pumping in the hilly region. Because of this excessive, desiccation of water resources were predicted and proper countermeasure is in great demand.

  • PDF

Design and Analysis of Heat Exchanger Using Sea Water Heat Source for Cooling

  • Kim, MyungRae;Lee, JuHee;Yoon, JaeOck
    • KIEAE Journal
    • /
    • v.16 no.3
    • /
    • pp.25-34
    • /
    • 2016
  • Purpose: The temperature in Seoul has risen 3 times more than the average global temperature increase for the past 100 years. Today, summer starts 15 days earlier than the early 20th century and is 32 days longer. This tendency causes rapid increase of cooling energy demand. Following this effect, seawater heat resources are to be used as an countermeasure for global warming. Incheon Port near the Western Sea has the lowest water temperature in the winter in South Korea in which it is suitable to use seawater cold heat resources. Method: The cold heat resource is gained from seawater when the water temperature is the lowest in the winter time and saved in a seasonal thermal storage. This can be used as cold heat resource in the summer time. A heat exchanger is essential to gain seawater cold energy. Due to this necessity, sea water heat resource heat exchangers are modeled by heat transfer equations and the fluid characteristics are analyzed. Also, a CFD (computational fluid dynamics) program is used to conduct simulation on the fluid characteristics of heat exchangers. The analyzed data of deducted from this process are comprehensively analyzed and discussed. Result: Regarding the performance of the heat exchanger, the heat exchanger was operated following the prediction within the range of heat transfer rate of minimum 3.3KW to maximum 33.6KW per device. In the temperature change analysis of the heat exchanger, fluid analysis by heat transfer equations almost corresponded to the temperature change by CFD simulation. Therefore, it is considered that the results of this study can be used as design data of heat exchangers.

Development of Regression Models for Estimation of Unmeasured Dissolved Organic Carbon Concentrations in Mixed Land-use Watersheds (복합토지이용 유역의 수질 관리를 위한 미측정 용존유기탄소 농도 추정)

  • Min Kyeong Park;Jin a Beom;Minhyuk Jeung;Ji Yeon Jeong;Kwang Sik Yoon
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
    • /
    • v.39 no.2
    • /
    • pp.162-174
    • /
    • 2023
  • In order to prevent water pollution caused by organic matter, Total Organic Carbon(TOC) has been adopted indicator and monitored. TOC can be divided into Dissolved Organic Carbon(DOC) and Particulate Organic Carbon(POC). POC is largely precipitated and removed during stream flow, which making DOC environmentally significant. However, there are lack of studies to define spatio-temporal distributions of DOC in stream affected by various land use. Therefore, it is necessary to estimate the past DOC concentration using other water quality indicators to evaluate status of watershed management. In this study, DOC was estimated by correlation and regression analysis using three different organic matter indicators monitored in mixed land-use watersheds. The results of correlation analysis showed that DOC has the highest correlation with TOC. Based on the results of the correlation analysis, the single- and multiple-regression models were developed using Biochemical Oxygen Demand(BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand(COD), and TOC. The results of the prediction accuracy for three different regression models showed that the single-regression model with TOC was better than those of the other multiple-regression models. The trend analysis using extended average concentration DOC data shows that DOC tends to decrease reflecting watershed management. This study could contribute to assessment and management of organic water pollution in mixed land-use watershed by suggesting methods for assessment of unmeasured DOC concentration.

A Study on the Development of GIS Based Water Quality Simulation System using HSPF in Basin of Yeong-san River (HSPF 모델을 적용한 GIS기반의 영산강 유역 수질모의 시스템 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sung Joo;Kim, Kye Hyun;Lee, Chol Young;Lee, Geon Hwi
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
    • /
    • v.14 no.4
    • /
    • pp.645-656
    • /
    • 2012
  • The basin environment has been seriously damaged by reckless development during the past half century. The demand for management in the basin has increased, but the system for prediction and management is not sufficient. Therefore, the aim of this study is to design a GIS-based water quality linkage system using the most suitable simulation, HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran) in this basin of South Korea. To achieve this, data of HSPF model for simulation and GIS data for spatial analysis is collected. And the system applied linkages of the water quality model and GIS such as Loose coupling. Also, the major function of the system was designed as a modular unit. Ultimately, the system is developed using development language of VB.NET from Microsoft and ArcObjects component from ESRI based on design for a module unit. The water quality simulation system can be supported to prediction and management for basin environment of Yeong-San River. In the future study, scenario will be established using the result of HSPF model And will be expected to support to situation of future basin and policy making.

Foreign Water Demand Prediction for Foreign Market Development of Seawater Desalination (해수담수화 플랜트 해외시장개척을 위한 국외물수요 예측 : 중동 및 북아프리카 지역)

  • Kang, Dae-Su;Yang, Jeong-Seok;Sohn, Jin-Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2010.05a
    • /
    • pp.889-893
    • /
    • 2010
  • 전 세계적으로 기후변화에 따른 주기적인 가뭄 현상과 기상 이변으로 인해 물 부족 사태는 심각해져 가고 있으며(UNEP은 물 기근에 시달리는 세계 도시 곳곳에 사는 많은 사람들은 2000년 5억 명에서 2025년 40억 명까지 증가할 것이라고 추측하였다), 산업화 이후 인구의 증가와 산업의 발달에 따른 삶의 질을 향상시키기 위한 물의 수요 또한 증가하고 있는 추세다. 그러나 인간이 사용 가능한 수자원은 지구상에 존재하는 물의 3% 이내로 한정되어 있으며 산업발달 및 도시화에 따른 지표수의 바다로의 유출 또한 빨라져 지하수개발, 하수재이용, 인공강우 및 해수담수화 등의 대체수자원의 개발이 요구되는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 Global Water Intelligence(GWI)의 자료를 기초로 하여 중동 및 북아프리카 지역 20개 국가를 대상으로 생활 용수 자본지출 추세, 공업용수 수요 시장규모 성장추세, 이용가능한 수자원 및 그에 따른 사용 중인 수자원 비율, 2007년 기준 물 부족 인구, 2011년~2016년 물 부족 인구를 조사 및 분석하였다. 용도별 생활용수 공업 용수의 추세 분석 기간은 2008년부터 2016년까지 실시하였으며 평균 연감 증가 백분율 5%이상 국가를 선정하였다. 중동 및 북아프리카 지역 20개 국가 중 18개 국가가 생활용수 자본지출 연감 증가 백분율 5%이상의 높은 수요 전망을 보였으며, 공업용수 수요 시장 전망은 높은 성장성을 보이며 큰 규모의 주요 2개 국가가 선정되었다. 또한 20개 국가 각각의 이용 가능한 수자원 및 그에 따른 사용 중인 수자원 비율, 2006년 기준물 부족 인구, 2011~2016년 물 부족 인구를 조사한 결과 전체 20개 국가 모두 물 부족 국가로 산정되었으며, 20개 국가 모두 해안지역에 위치해 있어 해수담수화 시설의 건설 가능성이 높은 지역인 것을 확인하였다. 조사한 중동 및 북아프리카 지역 중 많은 수의 국가가 물 부족 현상에 시달리고 있으며 물 수요 시장 전망 또한 증가할 것으로 나타나 대체수자원의 필요성은 증대될 것으로 판단되며 그에 따라 본 연구는 향후 국내 기업들이 세계 해수담수화 시장에 진출하는데 있어 진출 전략 마련에 기초가 될 것이라고 판단된다.

  • PDF

A Study on Water Demand Forecasting Methods Applicable to Developing Country (개발도상국에 적용 가능한 물수요 예측 방법 연구)

  • Sung-Uk Kim;Kye-Won Jun;Wan-Seop Pi;Jong-Ho Choi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
    • /
    • v.16 no.4
    • /
    • pp.75-84
    • /
    • 2023
  • Many developing countries face challenges in estimating long-term discharge due to the lack of hydrological data for water supply planning, making it difficult to establish a rational water supply plan for decision-making on water distribution. The study area, the Bandung region in Indonesia, is experiencing rapid urbanization and population concentration, leading to a severe shortage of freshwater. The absence of water reservoir prediction methods has resulted in a water supply rate of approximately 20%. In this study, we aimed to propose an approach for predicting water reservoirs in developing countries by analyzing water safety and potential water supply using the MODSIM (Modified SIMYLD) network model. To assess the suitability of the MODSIM model, we applied the unit hydrograph method to calculate long-term discharge based on 19 years of discharge data (2002-2020) from the Pataruman observation station. The analysis confirmed alignment with the existing monthly optimal operation curve. The analysis of power plant capacity revealed a difference of approximately 0.30% to 0.50%, and the water intake safety at the Pataruman point showed 1.64% for Q95% flow and 0.47% for Q355 flow higher. Operational efficiency, compared to the existing reservoir optimal operation curve, was measured at around 1%, confirming the potential of using the MODSIM network model for water supply evaluation and the need for water supply facilities.

Analysis of domestic water usage patterns in Chungcheong using historical data of domestic water usage and climate variables (생활용수 실적자료와 기후 변수를 활용한 충청권역 생활용수 이용량 패턴 분석)

  • Kim, Min Ji;Park, Sung Min;Lee, Kyungju;So, Byung-Jin;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.57 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-8
    • /
    • 2024
  • Persistent droughts due to climate change will intensify water shortage problems in Korea. According to the 1st National Water Management Plan, the shortage of domestic and industrial waters is projected to be 0.07 billion m3/year under a 50-year drought event. A long-term prediction of water demand is essential for effectively responding to water shortage problems. Unlike industrial water, which has a relatively constant monthly usage, domestic water is analyzed on monthly basis due to apparent monthly usage patterns. We analyzed monthly water usage patterns using water usage data from 2017 to 2021 in Chungcheong, South Korea. The monthly water usage rate was calculated by dividing monthly water usage by annual water usage. We also calculated the water distribution rate considering correlations between water usage rate and climate variables. The division method that divided the monthly water usage rate by monthly average temperature resulted in the smallest absolute error. Using the division method with average temperature, we calculated the water distribution rates for the Chungcheong region. Then we predicted future water usage rates in the Chungcheong region by multiplying the average temperature of the SSP5-8.5 scenario and the water distribution rate. As a result, the average of the maximum water usage rate increased from 1.16 to 1.29 and the average of the minimum water usage rate decreased from 0.86 to 0.84, and the first quartile decreased from 0.95 to 0.93 and the third quartile increased from 1.04 to 1.06. Therefore, it is expected that the variability in monthly water usage rates will increase in the future.

Comparison of Carbonaceous Sediment Oxygen Demand in Lake Paldang and Lake Chungju (팔당호와 충주호 퇴적물의 탄소성 산소요구량 비교)

  • Shin, Yu-Na;Park, Hae-Kyung;Lee, Sang-Won;Kong, Dong-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
    • /
    • v.40 no.3
    • /
    • pp.439-448
    • /
    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the seasonal variations of sediment oxygen demand (SOD) in Lake Paldang and Lake Chungju of the Han River system and to suggest SOD values as parameters for the water quality prediction models of two lakes. SOD was measured at laboratory using sediment collected at 2 sites in Lake Paldang from June to November and at 4 sites in Lake Chungju from May to November in 2005, respectively. It was found from the laboratory test that the SOD in Lake Paldang ranged from 337.8 to 881.0 mg $O_2m^{-2}d^{-1}$ and in Lake Chungju ranged from 143.0 to 969.1 mg $O_2m^{-2}d^{-1}$. The SOD of Lake Paldang showed similar variations to the content of organic matter of sediment. The SOD of Lake Chungju was positively correlated with temperature (r=0.78, p<0.01), $PO_4-P(r=0.79,\;p<0.01)$, TP (r=0.55, p<0.05), DTP (r=0.55, p<0.05), $NO_3-N$ (r=(0.72, p<0.01) of hypolimnetic water. These results indicate that the SOD of Lake Paldang was affected by the content and origin of organic matter of sediment and the SOD of Lake Chungju was closely correlated with physical and chemical factors.