• Title/Summary/Keyword: Water Level Prediction

Search Result 347, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Bias Characteristics Analysis of Himawari-8/AHI Clear Sky Radiance Using KMA NWP Global Model (기상청 전구 수치예보모델을 활용한 Himawari-8/AHI 청천복사휘도 편차 특성 분석)

  • Kim, Boram;Shin, Inchul;Chung, Chu-Yong;Cheong, Seonghoon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.34 no.6_1
    • /
    • pp.1101-1117
    • /
    • 2018
  • The clear sky radiance (CSR) is one of the baseline products of the Himawari-8 which was launched on October, 2014. The CSR contributes to numerical weather prediction (NWP) accuracy through the data assimilation; especially water vapor channel CSR has good impact on the forecast in high level atmosphere. The focus of this study is the quality analysis of the CSR of the Himawari-8 geostationary satellite. We used the operational CSR (or clear sky brightness temperature) products in JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) as observation data; for a background field, we employed the CSR simulated using the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV) with the atmospheric state from the global model of KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). We investigated data characteristics and analyzed observation minus background statistics of each channel with respect to regional and seasonal variability. Overall results for the analysis period showed that the water vapor channels (6.2, 6.9, and $7.3{\mu}m$) had a positive mean bias where as the window channels(10.4, 11.2, and $12.4{\mu}m$) had a negative mean bias. The magnitude of biases and Uncertainty result varied with the regional and the seasonal conditions, thus these should be taken into account when using CSR data. This study is helpful for the pre-processing of Himawari-8/Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) CSR data assimilation. Furthermore, this study also can contribute to preparing for the utilization of products from the Geo-Kompsat-2A (GK-2A), which will be launched in 2018 by the National Meteorological Satellite Center (NMSC) of KMA.

Validation of a physical activity classification table in Korean adults and elderly using a doubly labeled water method (한국 성인과 노인을 대상으로 이중표식수법을 이용한 신체활동분류표 타당도 평가)

  • Hye-Ji Han ;Ha-Yeon Jun;Jonghoon Park;Kazuko Ishikawa-Takata;Eun-Kyung Kim
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
    • /
    • v.56 no.4
    • /
    • pp.391-403
    • /
    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study evaluated the validity of a physical activity classification table (PACT) based on total energy expenditure (TEE) and physical activity level (PAL) measured using the doubly labeled water (DLW) method in Korean adults and the elderly. Methods: A total of 141 (male 70, female 71) adults and elderly were included. The reference standards TEEDLW, PALDLW were measured over a 14-day period using DLW. A 24-hour physical activity diary was kept for three days (two days during the week and one day on the weekend). PALPACT was calculated by classifying the activity type and intensity using the PACT. PALPACT was multiplied by resting energy expenditure measured by indirect calorimetry to estimate TEEPACT. Results: The mean age of the study participants was 50.5 ± 18.8 years, and the mean body mass index was 23.4 ± 3.3 kg/m2. A comparison of TEEDLW and TEEPACT by sex and age showed no significant differences. The bias, the difference between TEEDLW and TEEPACT, was male 17.3 kcal/day and female -4.5 kcal/day. The percentage of accurate predictions (values within ± 10% of the TEEDLW) of TEEPACT was 58.6% in males and 54.9% in females, with the highest prediction values in the age group 40-64 years (70.9%) in males and over 65 years (73.9%) in females. The spearman correlation coefficient (r) between TEEPACT and TEEDLW was 0.769, indicating a significant positive correlation (p < 0.001). Conclusion: In this study, the use of a new PACT for calculating TEE and PAL was evaluated as valid. A web version of the software program and a smartphone application need to be developed using PACT to make it easier to apply for research purposes.

Prediction of groundwater level in the middle mountainous area of Pyoseon Watershed in Jeju Island using deep learning algorithm, LSTM (딥러닝 알고리즘 LSTM을 활용한 제주도 표선유역 중산간지역의 지하수위 예측)

  • Shin, Mun-Ju;Moon, Soo-Hyoung;Moon, Duk Chul
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2020.06a
    • /
    • pp.291-291
    • /
    • 2020
  • 제주도는 강수의 지표침투성이 좋은 화산섬의 지질특성상 지표수의 개발이용여건이 취약한 관계로 용수의 대부분을 지하수에 의존하고 있다. 따라서 제주도는 정책 및 연구적으로 오랜 기간동안 지하수의 보전관리에 많은 노력을 기울여 오고 있다. 하지만 최근 기후변화로 인한 강수의 변동성 증가로 인해 지하수위의 변동성 또한 증가할 가능성이 있으며 따라서 지하수위의 급격한 하강에 대비하여 지하수위의 예측 및 지하수 취수량 관리의 필요성이 요구되고 있다. 지하수에 절대적으로 의존하고 있는 제주도의 수자원 이용 여건을 고려할 때, 지하수의 취수량 관리를 위한 지하수위의 실시간 예측이 필요한 실정이다. 하지만 기존의 예측방법에 의한 제주도 지하수위 예측기간은 충분히 길지 않으며 예측기간이 길어지면 예측성능이 낮아지는 문제점이 있었다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 단점을 보완하기 위해 딥러닝 알고리즘인 Long Short Term Memory(LSTM)를 활용하여 제주도 남동쪽 표선유역 중산간지역의 1개 지하수위 관측정에 대해 지하수위를 예측하고 분석하였다. R 기반의 Keras 패키지에 있는 LSTM 알고리즘을 사용하였고, 입력자료는 인근의 성판악 및 교래 강우관측소의 일단위 강수량자료와 인근 취수정의 지하수 취수량자료 및 연구대상 관측정의 지하수위 자료를 사용하였으며, 사용된 자료의 기간은 2001년 2월 11일부터 2019년 10월 31일까지 이다. 2001년부터 13년의 보정 및 3년의 검증용 시계열자료를 사용하여 매개변수의 보정 및 과적합을 방지하였고, 3년의 예측용 시계열자료를 사용하여 LSTM 알고리즘의 예측성능을 평가하였다. 목표 예측일수는 1일, 10일, 20일, 30일로 설정하였으며 보정, 검증 및 예측기간에 대한 모의결과의 평가지수로는 Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)를 활용하였다. 모의결과, 보정, 검증 및 예측기간에 대한 1일 예측의 NSE는 각각 0.997, 0.997, 0.993 이었고, 10일 예측의 NSE는 각각 0.993, 0.912, 0.930 이었다. 20일 예측의 경우 NSE는 각각 0.809, 0.781, 0.809 이었으며 30일 예측의 경우 각각 0.677, 0.622, 0.633 이었다. 이것은 LSTM 알고리즘에 의한 10일 예측까지는 관측 지하수위 시계열자료를 매우 적절히 모의할 수 있다는 것을 의미하며, 20일 예측 또한 적절히 모의할 수 있다는 것을 의미한다. 따라서 LSTM 알고리즘을 활용하면 본 연구대상지점에 대한 2주일 또는 3주일의 안정적인 지하수위 예보가 가능하다고 판단된다. 또한 LSTM 알고리즘을 통한 실시간 지하수위 예측은 지하수 취수량 관리에 활용할 수 있을 것이다.

  • PDF

Combined analysis of meteorological and hydrological drought for hydrological drought prediction and early response - Focussing on the 2022-23 drought in the Jeollanam-do - (수문학적 가뭄 예측과 조기대응을 위한 기상-수문학적 가뭄의 연계분석 - 2022~23 전남지역 가뭄을 대상으로)

  • Jeong, Minsu;Hong, Seok-Jae;Kim, Young-Jun;Yoon, Hyeon-Cheol;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.57 no.3
    • /
    • pp.195-207
    • /
    • 2024
  • This study selected major drought events that occurred in the Jeonnam region from 1991 to 2023, examining both meteorological and hydrological drought occurrence mechanisms. The daily drought index was calculated using rainfall and dam storage as input data, and the drought propagation characteristics from meteorological drought to hydrological drought were analyzed. The characteristics of the 2022-23 drought, which recently occurred in the Jeonnam region and caused serious damage, were evaluated. Compared to historical droughts, the duration of the hydrological drought for 2022-2023 lasted 334 days, the second longest after 2017-2018, the drought severity was evaluated as the most severe at -1.76. As a result of a linked analysis of SPI (StandQardized Precipitation Index), and SRSI (Standardized Reservoir Storage Index), it is possible to suggest a proactive utilization for SPI(6) to respond to hydrological drought. Furthermore, by confirming the similarity between SRSI and SPI(12) in long-term drought monitoring, the applicability of SPI(12) to hydrological drought monitoring in ungauged basins was also confirmed. Through this study, it was confirmed that the long-term dryness that occurs during the summer rainy season can transition into a serious level of hydrological drought. Therefore, for preemptive drought response, it is necessary to use real-time monitoring results of various drought indices and understand the propagation phenomenon from meteorological-agricultural-hydrological drought to secure a sufficient drought response period.

Analysis of Impact of Hydrologic Data on Neuro-Fuzzy Technique Result (수문자료가 Neuro-Fuzzy 기법 결과에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Ji, Jungwon;Choi, Changwon;Yi, Jaeeung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.33 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1413-1424
    • /
    • 2013
  • Recently, the frequency of severe storms increases in Korea. Severe storms occurring in a short time cause huge losses of both life and property. A considerable research has been performed for the flood control system development based on an accurate stream discharge prediction. A physical model is mainly used for flood forecasting and warning. Physical rainfall-runoff models used for the conventional flood forecasting process require extensive information and data, and include uncertainties which can possibly accumulate errors during modelling processes. ANFIS, a data driven model combining neural network and fuzzy technique, can decrease the amount of physical data required for the construction of a conventional physical models and easily construct and evaluate a flood forecasting model by utilizing only rainfall and water level data. A data driven model, however, has a disadvantage that it does not provide the mathematical and physical correlations between input and output data of the model. The characteristics of a data driven model according to functional options and input data such as the change of clustering radius and training data length used in the ANFIS model were analyzed in this study. In addition, the applicability of ANFIS was evaluated through comparison with the results of HEC-HMS which is widely used for rainfall-runoff model in Korea. The neuro-fuzzy technique was applied to a Cheongmicheon Basin in the South Han River using the observed precipitation and stream level data from 2007 to 2011.

Estimation of Sediment Transport and Long-term Prediction of Riverbed Elevation Changes in Yangon River (양곤강 퇴적물 이동 및 장기 하상변화율 측정)

  • Htet, Salaing Shine;Chang, Yeon S.
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.31 no.6
    • /
    • pp.450-457
    • /
    • 2019
  • Sedimentation is a common problem for river ports. But its intensity depends on the rate of sedimentation, channel shape and size, hydrodynamic behavior of the river and the importance of the port. High sedimentation rate in Yangon River has become one major issue for Myanmar as her largest port is located on the Yangon riverbank. As a result of the high sedimentation rate, shallow water area near the confluence of Yangon River, Pazundaung Creek, and Bago River keeps blocking the navigation channel to the Yangon Port, which also limits the size of vessel calling to Yangon Port. Therefore, studies to understand sediment transport process in Yangon River are required because the economic development of Myanmar highly relies on the Yangon Port. This paper aims to calculate the sediment transport and to predict the riverbed elevation changes in Yangon River by using Bagnold (1966) theory. Calculation result shows that huge difference can be found in the bed load transport between the rainy season and dry season in Yangon River, and thus the sedimentation problem would become more severe in the dry season when the transported sediments are reduced. The estimated sedimentation rate in dry season indicates that the rate of riverbed level rise near the Yangon Port area is about 0.063 m per year, which would lead to approximately 3.15 m rise in the riverbed level in next 50 yrs, considering the same workload of dredging to maintain the navigation channel.

Technological Development Trends for Underground Safety in Urban Construction (도심지 공사시 지하안전 확보를 위한 기술개발 동향)

  • Baek, Yong;Kim, Woo Seok
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
    • /
    • v.27 no.6
    • /
    • pp.343-350
    • /
    • 2017
  • Amid increasingly saturated ground space, development of underground space has been booming throughout the world and excavation has been underway near the structure above or under the ground level. But the ground subsidence caused by improper or poor construction technologies, underground water leakage, sudden changes of stratum and the problem with earth retaining system component has been emerged as hot social issue. To deal with such problems nationwide, establishment of preventive and proactive disaster management and rapid restoration system has been pushed now. In this study, collection of the data on technology development trend to secure the underground safety was made, taking into account of internal change elements (changing groundwater level, damage to underground utilities, etc) and external change elements (vehicle load, earthquake and ground excavation, etc) during excavation. Amid the growing need of ground behavior analysis, ground subsidence evaluation technology, safe excavation to prevent ground subsidence and reinforcement technology, improvement of rapid restoration technology in preparation for ground subsidence and development of independent capability, this study is intended to introduce the technology development in a bid to prevent the ground subsidence during excavation. It's categorized into prediction/evaluation technology, complex detect technology, waterproof reinforcement technology, rapid restoration technology and excavation technology which, in part, has been in process now.

Estimating Ungauged River Section for Flood Stage Analysis (홍수위 해석을 위한 미측정 하천 단면 추정)

  • Shin, Sat Byeol;Kang, Moon Seong;Jun, Sang Min;Song, Jung Hun;Kim, Kyeung;Ryu, Jeong Hoon;Park, Jihoon;Lee, Do Gil;Lee, Kyeong-Do
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
    • /
    • v.58 no.5
    • /
    • pp.11-18
    • /
    • 2016
  • The objective of this study was to develop the simple method to estimate ungauged river section for flood stage analysis. Damage prediction should be prioritized using hydrological modeling to reduce flood risk. Mostly, the geographical data using hydrological modeling depends on national river cross-section survey. However because of the lack of measured data, it is difficult to apply to many local streams or small watersheds. For this reason, this study suggest the method to estimate unguaged river cross-section. Simple regression equations were derived and used to estimate river cross-section by analyzing the correlation between the river cross-sectional characteristics (width, height and area). The estimated cross-sections were used to simulate flood level by HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System). The applicability of this method was verified by comparing simulated flood level between measured and estimated cross-section. The water surface elevation of the flood stage analysis was 6.56-7.24 m, 5.33-5.95 m and 6.12-6.75 m for measured cross section, for estimated cross section and for estimated cross section based on DEM elevation, respectively. Further study should consider other factors for more accurate flood stage analysis. This study might be used one of the guidelines to estimate ungauged river section for flood stage analysis.

Dielectric Properties of Sardine-Starch Paste at Low Moisture Contents 1, Effect of Moisture Content and Frequency (정어리 마쇄육의 저수분에서의 유전특성 1. 수분함량과 주파업에 따른 유전특성)

  • LEE Byeong-Ho;KIM Chang-Yang
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.125-132
    • /
    • 1983
  • Dielectric properties of sardine-starch paste with moisture content of 4 to $13\%$ were investigated as functions of moisture and frequency. And the effects of the levels of fat and starch of the mixtures upon dielectric permittivity, critical moisture, were also mentioned. In addition, a theoretical prediction of frequency dependence of dielectric constant which was computed by the lumped circuit of two layer condenser model was evaluated. For the preparation of sardine-starch paste, comminuted sardine meat was washed thoroughly several times in chilled water by soaking and decanting, and finally centrifuged. This procedure was extended longer to provide a low fat sample. The centrifuged meat was mixed with adequate amounts of starch and salt, and ground for 25 minutes in a stone mortar, moulded in the form of disk with 7cm diameter and 1.2cm thickness and then freeze dried. Dried meat disks were cut off for the size of 5.5cm diameter and 1.0cm thickness and their moisture contents were controlled in humidified desiccators with saturated solutions. Dielectric constants of sardine-starch paste tended to decrease frequency was increased showing a critical charge at the moisture called critical moisture content. In case of the sample with $20\%$ starch and $2\%$ salt an average complex permittivity($\epsilon^{\ast}$) at 7 to $8\%$ morsture as the critical moisture content was presented; $\epsilon^{\ast}$=3.37+j 0.39 at 0.1 MHz, $\epsilon^{\ast}$=2.54+j 0.19 at 15 MHz, and $\epsilon^{\ast}$=2.15+j 0.08 at 1.8 GHz, respectively. The theoretically obtained complex permittivity values from the two layer condoner model were in close agreement with these actual measurements under the same conditions, that appeared as $\epsilon^{\ast}$=2.53+i 0.09 at 0.1 MHz and $\epsilon^{\ast}$=2.28+j 0.06 at 15 MHz, respectively. The fast level of the mixture also revealed an influence on dielectric property that defatted neat with $1.0\%$ fat showed a higher hc and $\epsilon^{\ast}$ value than the meat with $4.8\%$ fat. Complex permittivity being related to the moisture level remained nearly unchanged or slightly changed at the moisture range of 4 to $8\%$ but was dispersed widely at higher moisture contents.

  • PDF

Abundance of Harmful Algae, Cochlodinium polykrikoides, Gyrodinium impudicum and Gymnodinium catenatum in the Coastal Area of South Sea of Korea and Their Effects of Temperature, Salinity, Irradiance and Nutrient on the Growth in Culture (남해안 연안에서 적조생물, Cochlodinium polykikoides, Gyrodinium impudicum, Gymnodinium catenatum의 출현상황과 온도, 염분, 조도 및 영양염류에 따른 성장특성)

  • LEE Chang Kyu;KIM Hyung Chul;LEE Sam-Geun;JUNG Chang Su;KIM Hak Gyoon;LIM Wol Ae
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
    • /
    • v.34 no.5
    • /
    • pp.536-544
    • /
    • 2001
  • Three harmful algal bloom species with similar morphology, Cochlodinium polykrikoides, Gyodinium impudicum and Gymodinium catenatum have damaged to aquatic animals or human health by either making massive blooms or intoxication of shellfishes in a food chain. Eco-physiological and hydrodynamic studies on the harmful algae offer useful informations in the understanding their bloom mechanism by giving promising data for the prediction and modelling of harmful algal blooms event. Thus, we studied the abundance of these species in the coastal area of South Sea of Korea and their effects of temperature, salinity, irradiance and nutrient on the growth for the isolates. The timing for initial appearance of the three species around the coastal area of Namhaedo, Narodo and Wando was between Bate July and late August in 1999 when water temperature ranged from $22.8^{\circ}C\;to\;26.5^{\circ}C$ Vegetative cells of C. polykrikoides and G. impudicum were abundant until late September when water temperature had been dropped to less than $23^{\circ}C$. By contrast, vegetative cell of G. catenatum disappeared before early September, showing shorter period of abundance than the other two species in the South Sea. Both G. impudicum and G. catenatum revealed comparatively low density with a maximal cell density of 3,460 cells/L and 440 cells/L, respectively without making any bloom, while C. polykrikoides made massive blooms with a maximal cell density more than $40\times10^6$cells/L, The three species showed a better growth at the relatively higher water temperature ranging from 22 to $28^{\circ}C$ with their maximal growth rate at $25^{\circ}C$ in culture, which almost corresponded with the water temperature during the outbreak of C. polykrikoides in the coastal area of South Sea. Also, they all showed a relatively higher growth at the salinity from 30 to $35\%$. Specially, G. impudicum showed the euryhalic characteristics among the species, On the other hand, growth rate of G. catenatum decreased sharply with the increase of water temperature at the experimental ranges more than $35\%$. The higher of light intensities showed the better growth rates for the three species, Moreover, C. polykrikoides and G. impudirum continued their exponential growth even at 7,500 lux, the highest level of light intensity in the experiment, Therefore, It is assumed that C. polykrikoides has a physiological capability to adapt and utilize higher irradiance resulting in the higher growth rate without any photo inhibition response at the sea surface where there is usually strong irradiance during its blooming season. Although C. poiykikoides and G. impudicum continued their linear growth with the increase of nitrate ($NO_3^-$) and ammonium ($NH_4^-$) concentrations at less than the $40{\mu}M$, they didn't show any significant differences in growth rates with the increase of nitrate and ammonium concentrations at more than $40{\mu}M$, signifying that the nitrogen critical point for the growth of the two species stands between 13.5 and $40{\mu}M$. Also, even though both of the two species continued their linear growth with the increase of phosphate ($PO_4^{2-}$) concentrations at less than the $4.05{\mu}M$, there were no any significant differences in growth rates with the increase of phosphate concentrations at more than $4.05{\mu}M$, signifying that the phosphate critical point for the growth of the two species stands between 1.35 and $4.05{\mu}M$. On the other hand, C. polykrikoides has made blooms at the oligotrophic environment near Narodo and Namhaedo where the concentration of DIN and DIP are less than 1.2 and $0.3{\mu}M$, respectively. We attributed this phenomenon to its own ecological characteristics of diel vertical migration through which C. polykrikoides could uptake enough nutrients from the deep sea water near bottom during the night time irrespective of the lower nutrient pools in the surface water.

  • PDF