• Title/Summary/Keyword: WEATHER FACTOR

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Evaluation of Ensemble Approach for O3 and PM2.5 Simulation

  • Morino, Yu;Chatani, Satoru;Hayami, Hiroshi;Sasaki, Kansuke;Mori, Yasuaki;Morikawa, Tazuko;Ohara, Toshimasa;Hasegawa, Shuichi;Kobayashi, Shinji
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 2010
  • Inter-comparison of chemical transport models (CTMs) was conducted among four modeling research groups. Model performance of the ensemble approach to $O_3$ and $PM_{2.5}$ simulation was evaluated by using observational data with a time resolution of 1 or 6 hours at four sites in the Kanto area, Japan, in summer 2007. All groups applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality model. The ensemble average of the four CTMs reproduced well the temporal variation of $O_3$ (r=0.65-0.85) and the daily maximum $O_3$ concentration within a factor of 1.3. By contrast, it underestimated $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations by a factor of 1.4-2, and did not reproduce the $PM_{2.5}$ temporal variation at two suburban sites (r=~0.2). The ensemble average improved the simulation of ${SO_4}^{2-}$, ${NO_3}^-$, and ${NH_4}^+$, whose production pathways are well known. In particular, the ensemble approach effectively simulated ${NO_3}^-$, despite the large variability among CTMs (up to a factor of 10). However, the ensemble average did not improve the simulation of organic aerosols (OAs), underestimating their concentrations by a factor of 5. The contribution of OAs to $PM_{2.5}$ (36-39%) was large, so improvement of the OA simulation model is essential to improve the $PM_{2.5}$ simulation.

Tropospheric Anomaly Detection in Multi-Reference Stations Environment during Localized Atmospheric Conditions-(2) : Analytic Results of Anomaly Detection Algorithm

  • Yoo, Yun-Ja
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.271-278
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    • 2016
  • Localized atmospheric conditions between multi-reference stations can bring the tropospheric delay irregularity that becomes an error terms affecting positioning accuracy in network RTK environment. Imbalanced network error can affect the network solutions and it can corrupt the entire network solution and degrade the correction accuracy. If an anomaly could be detected before the correction message was generated, it is possible to eliminate the anomalous satellite that can cause degradation of the network solution during the tropospheric delay anomaly. An atmospheric grid that consists of four meteorological stations was used to detect an inhomogeneous weather conditions and tropospheric anomaly applied AWSs (automatic weather stations) meteorological data. The threshold of anomaly detection algorithm was determined based on the statistical weather data of AWSs for 5 years in an atmospheric grid. From the analytic results of anomaly detection algorithm it showed that the proposed algorithm can detect an anomalous satellite with an anomaly flag generation caused tropospheric delay anomaly during localized atmospheric conditions between stations. It was shown that the different precipitation condition between stations is the main factor affecting tropospheric anomalies.

A Study on Daily Water Demand Prediction Model (급수량(給水量) 단기(短期) 수요예측(需要豫測)에 대한 연구(硏究))

  • Koo, Jayoug;Koizwui, Akirau;Inakazu, Toyono
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.109-118
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    • 1997
  • In this study, we examined the structural analysis of water demand fluctuation for water distribution control of water supply network. In order to analyze for the length of stationary time series, we calculate autocorrelation coefficient of each case equally divided data size. As a result, it was found that, with the data size of around three months, any case could be used as stationary time series. we analyze cross-correlation coefficient between the daily water consumption's data and primary influence factors. As a result, we have decided to use weather conditions and maximum temperature as natural primary factors and holidays as a social factor. Applying the multiple ARIMA model, we obtains an effective model to describe the daily water demand prediction. From the forecasting result, even though we forecast water distribution quantity of the following year, estimated values well express the flctuations of measurements. Thus, the suitability of the model for practical use can be confirmed. When this model is used for practical water distribution control, water distribution quantity for the following day should be found by inputting maximum temperature and weather conditions obtained from weather forecast, and water purification plants and service reservoirs should be operated based on this information while operation of pumps and valves should be set up. Consequently, we will be able to devise a rational water management system.

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Mesoscale Features and Forecasting Guidance of Heavy Rain Types over the Korean Peninsula (한반도 호우유형의 중규모 특성 및 예보 가이던스)

  • Kim, Sunyoung;Song, Hwan-Jin;Lee, Hyesook
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.463-480
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    • 2019
  • This study classified heavy rain types from K-means clustering for the hourly relationship between rainfall intensity and cloud top height over the Korean peninsula, and then examined their statistical characteristics for the period of June~August 2013~2018. Total rainfall amount of warm-type events was 2.65 times larger than that of the cold-type, whereas the lightning frequency divided by total rainfall for the warm-type was only 46% of the cold-type. Typical cold-type cases exhibited high cloud top height around 16 km, large reflectivity in the upper layer, and frequent lightning flashes under convectively unstable condition. Phenomenally, the cold-type cases corresponded to cloud cluster or multi-cell thunderstorms. However, two warm-type cases related to Changma and typhoon were characterized by heavy rainfall due to long duration, relatively low cloud top height and upper-level reflectivity, and the absence of lightning under the convectively neutral and extremely humid conditions. This study further confirmed that the forecast skill of rainfall could be improved by applying correction factor with the overestimation for cold-type and underestimation for warm-type cases in the Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) operational model (e.g., BIAS score was improved by 5%).

Corona Cage Simulation on Environmental Characteristics Caused by the Ion flow of Candidated Conductor Bundles for HVDC Overhead Transmission (초고압 직류 가공송전 후보 도체방식의 이온류 환경특성 코로나 케이지 모의시험)

  • Ju, Mun-No;Yang, Kwang-Ho;Lee, Dong-Il;Shin, Koo-Yong
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.56 no.10
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    • pp.1791-1795
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    • 2007
  • Small ions generated at conductor corona sources remain in the atmosphere until they recombine with ions of opposite polarity, attach to aerosols, or make contact with an object. Ion current density is major factor to design conductor configuration of DC overhead transmission line. Several techniques have been used to measure the ion current of HVDC overhead transmission line. In this study, the ion current density was measured by a plate electrode made of a metal flat board at DC corona cage. The sensitivity of the plate electrode is $0.156uA/m^2/V$. To obtain an useful database on corona discharge, it is necessary to do corona test on several kinds of conductor bundles. Therefore, a number of experiments were conducted on several kinds of conductor bundles. To reliably analyze ion effects, corona cage test data were obtained over a long period of time under various weather conditions and expressed as a statistical distribution. Ion current density distribution in foul weather shows a significant increase in levels over the corresponding fair weather. Based on this results, we evaluated the environmental characteristic caused by ion flow of three candidated conductor bundles.

Estimation of non-working days due to weather condition using fuzzy numbers (퍼지값을 이용한 기후요소 작업불능일 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Joo-Heon;Choi, Hee-Bok;Shin, Yoon-Seok;Cho, Hun-Hee;Kang, Kyung-In
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.349-352
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    • 2008
  • Weather condition is the uncontrolled factor to influence the project duration. Determining non-working days due to it incorrectly leads to often change the project duration and increase the total cost as well as causing the dispute among stakeholders. When making decision of non-working days, it is important to consider the expert's experience according to the characteristic of the site and local area. Therefore this paper presented the method to estimate non-working days due to wether condition by using fuzzy numbers reflecting expert's subjective experience.

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Temperature and humidity effects on behavior of grouts

  • Farzampour, Alireza
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • v.5 no.6
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    • pp.659-669
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    • 2017
  • Grouts compared to other material sources, could be highly sensitive to cold weather conditions, especially when the compressive strength is the matter of concern. Grout as one the substantial residential building material used in retaining walls, rebar fixation, sidewalks is in need of deeper investigation, especially in extreme weather condition. In this article, compressive strength development of four different commercial grouts at three temperatures and two humidity rates are evaluated. This experiment is aimed to assess the grout strength development over time and overall compressive strength when the material is cast at low temperatures. Results represent that reducing the curing temperature about 15 degrees could result in 20% reduction in ultimate strength; however, decreasing the humidity percentage by 50% could lead to 10% reduction in ultimate strength. The maturity test results represented the effect of various temperatures and humidity rates on maturity of the grouts. Additionally, the freeze-thaw cycle's effect on the grouts is conducted to investigate the durability factor. The results show that the lower temperatures could be significantly influential on the behavior of grouts compared to lower humidity rates. It is indicated that the maturity test could not be valid and precise in harsh temperature conditions.

Improvement of Wave Height Mid-term Forecast for Maintenance Activities in Southwest Offshore Wind Farm (서남권 해상풍력단지 유지보수 활동을 위한 중기 파고 예보 개선)

  • Ji-Young Kim;Ho-Yeop Lee;In-Seon Suh;Da-Jeong Park;Keum-Seok Kang
    • Journal of Wind Energy
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.25-33
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    • 2023
  • In order to secure the safety of increasing offshore activities such as offshore wind farm maintenance and fishing, IMPACT, a mid-term marine weather forecasting system, was established by predicting marine weather up to 7 days in advance. Forecast data from the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (KHOA), which provides the most reliable marine meteorological service in Korea, was used, but wind speed and wave height forecast errors increased as the leading forecast period increased, so improvement of the accuracy of the model results was needed. The Model Output Statistics (MOS) method, a post-correction method using statistical machine learning, was applied to improve the prediction accuracy of wave height, which is an important factor in forecasting the risk of marine activities. Compared with the observed data, the wave height prediction results by the model before correction for 6 to 7 days ahead showed an RMSE of 0.692 m and R of 0.591, and there was a tendency to underestimate high waves. After correction with the MOS technique, RMSE was 0.554 m and R was 0.732, confirming that accuracy was significantly improved.

Classification of Precipitation Regions Associated with Extratropical Cyclone in Korea (한국(韓國)의 온대저기압성(溫帶低氣壓性) 강수지역(降水地域) 구분(區分))

  • Kim, Sung-Ryul;Yang, Jin-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.45-60
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    • 1995
  • The purpose of this study is to classify the Korean precipitation regions on the basis of the characteristics of extratropical cyclonic precipitation. From now on, extratropical cyclone is called cyclone in short. By using factor analysis and Ward method in cluster analysis, precipitation regions on the basis of the characteristics of cyclonic precipitation are classified The principal data used in this study are daily precipitation records obtained from 60 weather stations of the Korea Meteorological Service during the ten years($1981{\sim}1990$), and weather charts published by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The results obtained in this study are summarized as follows: (1) In the factor analysis using 43 variables which have relation to the extratropical cyclonic precipitations, They are seven factors whose eigenvalues are above 1.0. This explains 86 percent of total amount. The first factor explains the characteristics of precipitation in the middle-west area and its contribution degree has the highest 10.9 percent. (2) According to the cluster analysis method of Ward, extratropical cyclonic precipitation regions are classified seven macro regions(such as Kyungki and North Youngseo, Youngdong and Ullungdo, Hoseo and South Youngseo, Honam and Northwest Chejudo, Southeast Chejudo, North Youngnam, and South Youngnam), 22 meso regions. (3) The characteristics of precipitation regions have relations to the path of cyclone, the direction of air inflow and the strike of mountain ranges. As the conclusion, the Central China Low brings much precipitation in the southern coast and southern area of Korea as moving to the northeastward. The North China Low moves eastward and brings much precipitation in the western area of the Taeback mountain ranges. The probability of extratropical cyclonic precipitation is the lowest in the inland of Yeongnam and the eastern coastal areas which belong to the rain shadow region. Namely, The seasonal and spatial characteristics of precipitation are closely associated with the path of cyclone and the direction of air inflow according to its passage, and the strike of mountain ranges.

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Real-Time Micro-Weather Factors of Growing Field to the Epidemics of Rice Blast (벼 도열병 Epidemics에 미치는 재배 포장 실황기상 요인)

  • Kwon, Jae-Oun;Lee, Soon-Gu
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.199-206
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    • 2002
  • It was investigated on the relationship of the rice blast epidemics and the real-time meteorological factors, at the experimental paddy field in 1997. Weather factors(temperature, relative humidity, irradiation, precipitation, the direction of wind, wind speed, soil temperature and leaf-wetness, etc) were measured by using the automated weather station. The most influenced weather factor to blast epidemics, was the average max-temp($R^2$= 0.95) during 10 days before leaf blast epidemics, while the least thing was wind speed($R^2$= 0.24). The most potential weather factors correlated with the blast epidemics were T-ave(average temperature), T-max(maximum temperature), RH(Relative Humidity) and RD(Relative Humidity > 90% hrs). A statistics model(the regression equation) of the blast epidemics with the potential weather factors, was established as tallows ; Y = -3410.91 - 23.91 $\times$ T-ave + 28.56 $\times$ T-max + 41.0 $\times$ RH - 3.75 $\times$ RD, ($R^2$= 0.99). (T-ave >= 19$^{\circ}C$, T-max - T-ave >= 5.2$^{\circ}C$ and RH% >= 90.4%). According to the fitness test($\chi$$^2$) of the model, the observed blast disease severity was quite close to those expected.