• 제목/요약/키워드: Vulnerability analysis

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극한가뭄의 시공간적 특성에 대한 기후변화의 영향을 평가하기 위한 SAD 곡선의 적용 (Application of SAD Curves in Assessing Climate-change Impacts on Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Extreme Drought Events)

  • 김호성;박진혁;윤재영;김상단
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제30권6B호
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    • pp.561-569
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구에서는 현재 및 미래 기후에서의 가뭄심도-영향면적-지속기간 곡선의 비교를 통하여 극한 가뭄 사상에 대한 기후변화의 영향을 살펴보았다. 가뭄심도-영향면적-지속기간 곡선은 극한 호우사상을 특성화하기 위한 일반적으로 적용되는 우량깊이-영향면적-지속기간 곡선에서 우량깊이를 가뭄심도를 대표할 수 있는 적절한 지수로 대체함으로써 가뭄사상을 분석할 수 있는 도구를 제공한다. 미래 월 강수량 시계열은 $27km{\times}27km$의 공간적인 해상도를 가지는 기상청 지역기후모형으로부터 획득되었으며, 가뭄심도는 표준강수지수를 이용하여 산출하였다. 분석 결과, 농업가뭄에 대한 위험성은 특히 단기간의 지속기간의 경우에 현재보다 심화될 수 있는 것으로 분석되었으며, 수문학적 가뭄의 경우는 가뭄지속기간에 상관없이 모두 현재보다는 미래에 가뭄심도가 더 깊어질 가능성이 있는 것으로 예측되었다. 이에 따라 현재의 수자원 공급 시스템에 대한 기후변화 취약성 평가가 시급함을 제시하고 있다.

Application of a Semi-Physical Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model in South Korea to estimate Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Risk

  • Alcantara, Angelika L.;Ahn, Kuk-Hyun
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.152-152
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    • 2022
  • Only employing historical data limits the estimation of the full distribution of probable Tropical Cyclone (TC) risk due to the insufficiency of samples. Addressing this limitation, this study introduces a semi-physical TC rainfall model that produces spatially and temporally resolved TC rainfall data to improve TC risk assessments. The model combines a statistical-based track model based on the Markov renewal process to produce synthetic TC tracks, with a physics-based model that considers the interaction between TC and the atmospheric environment to estimate TC rainfall. The simulated data from the combined model are then fitted to a probability distribution function to compute the spatially heterogeneous risk brought by landfalling TCs. The methodology is employed in South Korea as a case study to be able to implement a country-scale-based vulnerability inspection from damaging TC impacts. Results show that the proposed model can produce TC tracks that do not only follow the spatial distribution of past TCs but also reveal new paths that could be utilized to consider events outside of what has been historically observed. The model is also found to be suitable for properly estimating the total rainfall induced by landfalling TCs across various points of interest within the study area. The simulated TC rainfall data enable us to reliably estimate extreme rainfall from higher return periods that are often overlooked when only the historical data is employed. In addition, the model can properly describe the distribution of rainfall extremes that show a heterogeneous pattern throughout the study area and that vary per return period. Overall, results show that the proposed approach can be a valuable tool in providing sufficient TC rainfall samples that could be an aid in improving TC risk assessment.

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Application of Lagrangian approach to generate P-I diagrams for RC columns exposed to extreme dynamic loading

  • Zhang, Chunwei;Abedini, Masoud
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.153-167
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    • 2022
  • The interaction between blast load and structures, as well as the interaction among structural members may well affect the structural response and damages. Therefore, it is necessary to analyse more realistic reinforced concrete structures in order to gain an extensive knowledge on the possible structural response under blast load effect. Among all the civilian structures, columns are considered to be the most vulnerable to terrorist threat and hence detailed investigation in the dynamic response of these structures is essential. Therefore, current research examines the effect of blast loads on the reinforced concrete columns via development of Pressure- Impulse (P-I) diagrams. In the finite element analysis, the level of damage on each of the aforementioned RC column will be assessed and the response of the RC columns when subjected to explosive loads will also be identified. Numerical models carried out using LS-DYNA were compared with experimental results. It was shown that the model yields a reliable prediction of damage on all RC columns. Validation study is conducted based on the experimental test to investigate the accuracy of finite element models to represent the behaviour of the models. The blast load application in the current research is determined based on the Lagrangian approach. To develop the designated P-I curves, damage assessment criteria are used based on the residual capacity of column. Intensive investigations are implemented to assess the effect of column dimension, concrete and steel properties and reinforcement ratio on the P-I diagram of RC columns. The produced P-I models can be applied by designers to predict the damage of new columns and to assess existing columns subjected to different blast load conditions.

Gender Inequalities in Mental Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Population-based Study in Korea

  • Minku Kang;Sarah Yu;Seung-Ah Choe;Daseul Moon;Myung Ki;Byung Chul Chun
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제56권5호
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    • pp.413-421
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: This study explored the effect of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on psychosocial stress in prime working-age individuals in Korea, focusing on gender inequalities. We hypothesized that the impact of COVID-19 on mental health would differ by age and gender, with younger women potentially demonstrating heightened vulnerability relative to men. Methods: The study involved data from the Korea Community Health Survey and included 319 592 adults aged 30 years to 49 years. We employed log-binomial regression analysis, controlling for variables including age, education, employment status, marital status, and the presence of children. The study period included 3 phases: the period prior to the COVID-19 outbreak (pre-COVID-19), the early pandemic, and the period following the introduction of vaccinations (post-vaccination). Results: The findings indicated that women were at a heightened risk of psychosocial stress during the early pandemic (relative risk [RR], 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98 to 1.05) and post-vaccination period (RR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.10) compared to men. This pattern was prominent in urban women aged 30-34 years (pre-COVID-19: RR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.10; early pandemic: RR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.25; post-vaccination period, RR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.31). Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted unequal impacts on psychosocial stress among prime working-age individuals in Korea, with women, particularly those in urban areas, experiencing a heightened risk. The findings highlight the importance of addressing gender-specific needs and implementing appropriate interventions to mitigate the psychosocial consequences of the pandemic.

Cortical thickness of the rostral anterior cingulate gyrus is associated with frailty in patients with end-stage renal disease undergoing hemodialysis in Korea: a cross-sectional study

  • Sang Hyun Jung;Jong Soo Oh;So-Young Lee;Hye Yun Jeong
    • Journal of Yeungnam Medical Science
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    • 제40권4호
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    • pp.381-387
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    • 2023
  • Background: Frailty is defined as a condition of being weak and delicate, and it represents a state of high vulnerability to adverse health outcomes. Recent studies have suggested that the cingulate gyrus is associated with frailty in the elderly population. However, few imaging studies have explored the relationship between frailty and the cingulate gyrus in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) undergoing hemodialysis. Methods: Eighteen right-handed patients with ESRD undergoing hemodialysis were enrolled in the study. We used the FreeSurfer software package to estimate the cortical thickness of the regions of interest, including the rostral anterior, caudal anterior, isthmus, and posterior cingulate gyri. The Beck Depression Inventory, Beck Anxiety Inventory, and laboratory tests were also conducted. Results: The cortical thickness of the right rostral anterior cingulate gyrus (ACG) was significantly correlated with the Fried frailty index, age, and creatinine level. Multiple regression analysis indicated that the cortical thickness of the right rostral ACG was associated with frailty after controlling for age and creatinine level. Conclusion: Our results indicate that the cortical thickness of the rostral ACG may be associated with frailty in patients with ESRD on hemodialysis and that the rostral ACG may play a role in the frailty mechanism of this population.

기후변화적응형 도시림 조성을 위한 i-Tree Canopy 기반 의사결정지원 방안 (i-Tree Canopy-based Decision Support Method for Establishing Climate Change Adaptive Urban Forests)

  • 김태한;이재영;송창길;오지은
    • 반도체디스플레이기술학회지
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.12-18
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    • 2024
  • The accelerated pace of climate crisis due to continuous industrialization and greenhouse gas emissions necessitates sustainable solutions that simultaneously address mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Naturebased Solutions (NbS) have gained prominence as viable approaches, with Green Infrastructure being a representative NbS. Green Infrastructure involves securing green spaces within urban areas, providing diverse climate adaptation functions such as removal of various air pollutants, carbon sequestration, and isolation. The proliferation of Green Infrastructure is influenced by the quantification of improvement effects related to various projects. To support decision-making by assessing the climate vulnerability of Green Infrastructure, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has developed i-Tree Tools. This study proposes a comprehensive evaluation approach for climate change adaptation types by quantifying the climate adaptation performance of urban Green Infrastructure. Using i-Tree Canopy, the analysis focuses on five urban green spaces covering more than 30 hectares, considering the tree ratio relative to the total area. The evaluation encompasses aspects of thermal environment, aquatic environment, and atmospheric environment to assess the overall eco-friendliness in terms of climate change adaptation. The results indicate that an increase in the tree ratio correlates with improved eco-friendliness in terms of thermal, aquatic, and atmospheric environments. In particular, it is necessary to prioritize consideration of the water environment sector in order to realize climate change adaptive green infrastructure, such as increasing green space in urban areas, as it has been confirmed that four out of five target sites are specialized in improving the water environment.

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Assessing COVID-19 Vulnerability Among HIV-positive Men Who Have Sex With Men in Korea: The Role of Vaccination and Sexual Behaviors

  • Minsoo Jung
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제57권4호
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    • pp.370-378
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    • 2024
  • Objectives: Comorbidities increase susceptibility to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections, but limited information has been published regarding human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and COVID-19 co-infections. This study explored the relationships among socioeconomic characteristics, sexual behaviors, and COVID-19 infection rates among Korean men who have sex with men (MSM) who are also living with HIV. Methods: Data were collected through a web survey aimed at members of the largest gay portal site in Korea, supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (n=1005). The primary independent variables included COVID-19-related vaccinations and sexual behaviors. The dependent variable was the incidence of COVID-19 infection among respondents during the pandemic. For statistical analysis, hierarchical multiple logistic regression was performed, controlling for potential confounding variables. Results: Model I indicated that older MSM were less likely to contract COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.96 to 0.99). Model II demonstrated that HIV-positive MSM were nearly twice as likely to be infected with COVID-19 compared to their HIV-negative counterparts (aOR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.14 to 3.41). Furthermore, even after accounting for COVID-19 vaccination status in model III, HIV-positive MSM continued to show a higher risk of infection (aOR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.12 to 3.35). Conclusions: The findings of this study indicate that HIV-positive MSM are at an increased risk of contracting COVID-19, even when their vaccination status is considered. Therefore, it is essential to prioritize the prevention of COVID-19 infections in HIV-positive individuals by administering appropriate antiretroviral therapy and ensuring adherence to public health guidelines.

항공기 구조 수명관리 및 취약부위 개선에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Life Management and Improvement of Vulnerable Parts of Aircraft Structures)

  • 최형준;박성제
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제21권7호
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    • pp.638-644
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    • 2020
  • 본 연구는 항공기 하중에 따라 발생하는 균열을 가정하여 항공기 취약 구조의 수명을 분석하고 구조 보강 개선을 수행하였다. 항공기 구조의 선제적 수명 예측 및 수명 관리를 통해 구조 건전성 및 안전성을 확보하였다. 특히, 항공기 구조물 취약부위의 수명 분석을 통해 운용 하중의 영향이 큰 Bulkhead의 개선이 필요한 3부위를 선정하였다. 분석 대상 항공기의 균열크기 검사능력은 0.03inch 수준과 비교하여 임계균열크기는 취약 3부위 중 최하인 0.032inch이다. 상대적으로 검사능력 대비 임계균열크기가 매우 적어 항공기 안전을 위해 개선이 필요하다. 그리고 피로수명 해석 결과 항공기 요구 수명인 15000 운용시간 이상 대비 취약 3부위 중 최하인 약 1450 운용시간은 항공기 초기검사 및 재검사 시간의 반복 횟수를 증가시켜 비용 및 인력의 소요를 발생시킨다. 결국, 식별된 취약 3부위의 구조 보강을 통해 형상을 개선하였다. 발생 균열에 대한 구조 내성의 증가를 통해 최하의 임계균열크기가 0.13inch로 확보되어 항공기 안전성이 증가하였다. 항공기 운용 중 발생하는 균열에 대한 최하의 구조 피로수명은 >25000 운용시간으로서 요구 수명 이상으로 분석되어 균열 및 파단에 의해 발생하는 수리비용과 과도한 보강범위 보다 최적화된 개선을 수행하였다.

녹색복지 관점에서 서울시 생활권 도시공원의 분배적 형평성 분석 (A Study on the Distributive Equity of Neighborhood Urban Park in Seoul Viewed from Green Welfare)

  • 김용국
    • 한국조경학회지
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    • 제42권3호
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    • pp.76-89
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    • 2014
  • 건강 증진, 기후변화 적응 및 완화 등 도시공원의 역할과 기능은 확장하고 있으나, 확장된 기능을 어떻게 분배할 것인가에 대한 문제는 상대적으로 관심이 미흡한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 중앙정부 및 지방자치단체의 도시공원 정책개발 및 집행 과정에 도시공원의 다기능성과 분배적 형평성을 반영하기 위해 녹색복지 개념을 제안한다. 녹색복지 관점에서 서울시 생활권 도시공원(NUP)의 분배적 형평성 차이를 분석하기 위해 관련 이론 및 선행연구 고찰을 통해 공원복지 지표를 선정하였다. 분석방법은 SPSS 18.0을 이용하여 상관분석, 군집분석을 실시하였다. 녹색복지는 사회경제적 지위에 관계없이 생애주기별 시민 모두가 건강 증진과 기후변화로 인한 환경위험으로부터 안전할 수 있는 녹색 서비스 전달과정에 참여하고 공정한 혜택을 누리는 것으로 정의했다. 분석결과 서울시는 자치구별 사회 경제 환경적 지위에 따라 1인당 NUP 면적에 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 1인당 NUP 면적과 상관관계가 있는 공원복지 지표는 인구밀도(-), 65세 이상 고령인구 비율(+), 재정자립도(+), 홍수 및 대기오염 취약성(-)인 것으로 분석되었다. 군집분석 결과 공원복지 수준에 차이가 있는 3개의 군집이 도출되었고, 이를 통해 녹색복지 관점에서 서울시 NUP는 불균형적으로 공급되어 있음을 알 수 있다. 서울시의 향후 도시공원 정책은 양적 확충을 넘어 공원이 지닌 기능의 공정한 분배가 요구되며, 이는 공원서비스의 수요자인 지역주민과 지역사회가 우선적으로 고려되어야 하겠다.

심볼릭 링크 공격 취약성 검출을 위한 분석 기법 (An Analysis Method for Detecting Vulnerability to Symbolic Link Exploit)

  • 주성용;안준선;조장우
    • 정보처리학회논문지A
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    • 제15A권1호
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2008
  • 본 논문에서는 심볼릭 링크 공격에 취약한 코드를 정의하고 프로그램 분석 기법을 사용하여 이를 검출하는 방법을 제안한다. 심볼릭 링크 공격을 해결하기 위한 기존의 방법들은 심볼릭 링크 공격을 방어하기 위한 기법들로써 임시 파일에 대한 접근 시 공격이 이루어졌는지에 대한 적절한 검사가 이루어져야 하나, 이를 간과할 경우 공격의 위험에 노출되게 된다. 본 논문에서 제안하는 방법은 심볼릭 링크 공격에 취약한 부분을 자동으로 모두 검출함으로써 프로그래머가 심볼릭 링크 공격을 안전하게 방어할 수 있도록 한다. 제안하는 방법은 취약점 분석을 위해서 기존의 타입 시스템에 새로운 타입 한정자를 추가하고, 추가된 타입 한정자를 고려한 타입 검사를 통해서 심볼릭 링크 공격의 취약점을 식별한다. 제안하는 방법은 자동으로 심볼릭 링크 공격의 취약점을 모두 검출할 수 있기 때문에, 프로그래머가 취약한 것으로 식별된 코드에 대해서만 기존의 방어 기법을 적용하도록 함으로써 프로그램을 전반적으로 검토하거나 수정해야 하는 부담을 줄여준다는 장점을 가진다. 제안하는 방법을 널리 알려진 실용적인 프로그램을 대상으로 실험해 본 결과 전체 fopen() 함수 중 일부만 심볼릭 링크 공격에 취약한 것으로 분석되었으며, 이는 제안한 방법이 프로그래머의 부담을 줄이는데 유용함을 보여준다.